Is Bitcoin On A Moonshot To Its All Time High? – Forbes

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Ive been talking about bitcoin on its way to $14,000 for some time and now that day has come. To me it is a haven play and gold would be rising a lot if it wasnt for the fact that demand for jewellery has collapsed because of the moribund state of the global economy. Gold will follow in time because folks are buying gold in coin and bar form like crazy but that demand has to rise a lot to suck up the demand losses of the trinket industry.

There are enough problems in the world to stoke bitcoin because as I consistently maintain, if you want to stash cash away from difficultiesinflation, to governmental, to social unrest, to local difficulties the list is a long onethen bitcoin is the easiest and best way to do it if you are techno savvy.

Yet it doesnt take all these emerging problems that plague the world. The trail of history ended by Fukuyama has been kickstarted back into life but this chaos is not necessary for Bitcoin to rise and rise, it is only the catalyst.

Traders see the world through an acute model of they did that, so this follows whereas investors see the world through a chronic vision of tectonic forces grinding away to produce an inevitable outcome. It is tectonic forces driving bitcoin with the acute news driving the volatility that market players love, but ultimately the randomness of noise is washed out by the moving average of the passage of time.

Here is the chart. Its a classic breakout and a classic parabolic move:

The Bitcoin chart - a classic breakout

Now bear in mind I havent been a strong bear on bitcoin all these years without acquiring a decent amount so please feel free to moderate my opinion on the basis I am talking my book.

The following chart is what grabs my attention:

The Bitcoin chart is similar now to the last rise

Self similarity, self affinity is an interesting area of study and Ive written on it for 20 years and its made me money, so I look at this chart and drool. There are many mathematical reasons why patterns repeat at different scales, and work by my old friend the late great Benoit Mandelbrot is worth a deep dive for anyone who takes their technical analysis seriously. In a nutshell you can say that long-term processes, even ones driven by large amounts of randomness from moment to moment, create fractals that repeat their forms due to the configurations of the forces at work. Put simply, if you bash a sheet of iron with a hammer over and over at random you will get a fascinating pattern which looks similar all over its surface. Clouds, coastlines, plants, rocks, stock markets all demonstrate this effect and right now if bitcoin is under the same influence then we are in great shape.

To me $17,000 is close and the top of this move could be very high. You can scale the move yourself if this pattern was to play out to the full. The thing to remember is 2017s $20,000 went back to $3,000, so $40,000 could just as easily go back to $5,000.

In any event we are in for a wild ride and we can be assured of that for years to come.

Clem Chambers is the CEO of private investors websiteADVFN.comand author of 101 Ways to Pick Stock Market Winners andTrading Cryptocurrencies: A Beginners Guide.

Chambers won Journalist of the Year in the Business Market Commentary category in the State Street U.K. Institutional Press Awards in 2018.

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Is Bitcoin On A Moonshot To Its All Time High? - Forbes