Both bitcoin and the U.S. stock markets have witnessed a notable recovery rally over the past couple of weeks, but it's the cryptocurrency that's taken the lead. <\/p>\n
Bitcoin (BTC) clocked a 3.5-week high of $7,459 early on Tuesday, meaning the cryptocurrency was up 4.2 percent from the yearly opening price of $7,160. Since then prices have fallen back slightly, putting the year-to-date gain at around 3.2 percent. <\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the U.S. stock markets are still trading in the red on a YTD basis. The S&P 500, Wall Streets equity index, has pulled off a strong 21.5 percent rally from lows near $2,190 reached on March 23, but even so it's still down 17.5 percent for the year. <\/p>\n
Gold, a classic haven asset, has gained around 2 percent so far since Jan. 1. <\/p>\n
At press time, bitcoin is changing hands near $7,445 up around 90 percent from the low of $3,867 observed on March 13, according to CoinDesks Bitcoin Price Index. <\/p>\n
As bitcoin looks to be moving in tandem with the equity markets, what's behind bitcoins outperformance of the S&P 500 on a year-to-date basis?<\/p>\n
Bitcoin may be gaining altitude because the market is now dominated by long-term investors who believe in the narrative that the cryptocurrency is a hedge against global economic duress brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. <\/p>\n
Bitcoins rapid drop from $8,000 to $3,867 seen on March 12 and March 13 was mainly fueled by long liquidations by institutions and macro traders. These non-crypto dedicated participants squared off their long positions to raise the cash needed to fund margin calls, said Richard Rosenblum, co-head of trading at GSR. <\/p>\n
Following the liquidations, the market is primarily made up of crypto-native firms and long investors. Not surprisingly, bitcoin is acting more bullish, Rosenblum said. <\/p>\n
The coronavirus-led sell-off in the equity markets, triggered a global dash for cash, which saw macro traders sell everything from gold to bitcoin. <\/p>\n
Derivatives market data does suggest institutions took a break from the crypto markets in March. Open interest, or open contracts, in futures listed on global exchanges fell from $4 billion on March 11 to $2 billion on March 14, according to data from research firm Skew. <\/p>\n
The cryptocurrency is expected to maintain its upward trajectory and challenge the high of $8,000 seen just before the March 12 sell-off. <\/p>\n
Bitcoin is within shouting distance of its March meltdown level, and could make par by the weekend, Jehan Chu, co-founder and managing partner at Hong Kong-based blockchain investment and trading firm Kenetic told CoinDesk. <\/p>\n
Chu, however, warned the cryptocurrency is still on uncertain ground and could slip back below $7,000. A pullback may be seen if key resistance near $7,480 proves a tough nut to crack. <\/p>\n
Daily and 4-hour charts<\/p>\n
Bitcoin charted a green marubozu candle on Monday (above left), which comprises a big body and small or no wicks. The candle indicates buyers were in control from the open to the close, reflecting strong bullish sentiment.<\/p>\n
The pattern strengthened the case for a rally to $8,000 put forward by a pennant breakout confirmed last week. <\/p>\n
So far, however, the buyers have failed to challenge the 50-day average hurdle at $7,482. Bitcoin narrowly missed passing the average resistance early on Tuesday, with prices dropping back from $7,459. <\/p>\n
If the hurdle continues to cap upside during the U.S. trading hours, an overbought reading on the 4-hour chart relative strength index would gain credence, possibly yielding a drop to the daily chart rising channel support, currently at $6,810. <\/p>\n
Disclosure:The author holds no cryptocurrency at the time of writing <\/p>\n
The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n