Bitcoin (BTC) may dip below its 200-week moving average price but will stay above $8,200, one of the industrys most respected analysts has said.<\/p>\n
In a series of tweets on Feb. 10, PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow Bitcoin price forecasting tool, also predicts BTC\/USD would trade above $10,000 by May.<\/p>\n
This is around the date of Bitcoins block reward halving, which would kick off the bull run sending the cryptocurrency to $100,000 before December 2021.<\/p>\n
PlanB released the predictions describing them as his 2 sats on Bitcoin price. In a previous update in January 2019, he claimed BTC\/USD would stay above its 200-week moving average (200WMA), which historically had always grown.<\/p>\n
As Cointelegraph reported, that 200WMA growth rate was 3% in December last year, while now, it has increased to around 4%.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Bitcoin price stock-to-flow forecast as of January 2019. Source: PlanB\/ Twitter<\/p>\n
At present, Bitcoin hovering at just below $10,000 means it is around 14% higher than the $8,600 level that stock-to-flow dictates.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Bitcoin price stock-to-flow multiple as of Feb. 10. Source: S2F Multiple\/ Twitter<\/p>\n
This month, traders continue to air concerns about a price correction to $6,000 or even lower. Others rebutted the idea, with veteran market participant Peter Brandt likewise arguing BTC\/USD was not destined to drop significantly.<\/p>\n
Stock-to-flow uses two indicators to chart Bitcoins price trajectory: the number of Bitcoins already available versus the number of new Bitcoins added to circulation.<\/p>\n
Historically highly accurate, the model puts Bitcoin on par with gold in terms of its status as hard money with a supply that is virtually impossible to manipulate, unlike fiat currency.<\/p>\n
In the long term, PlanB expects BTC\/USD to trade at an average of $100,000 between 2021 and 2024. After that, however, fiat weakness may reach such an extent that Bitcoin appreciates to a factor of $100,000, at which point stock-to-flow would ironically become less useful.<\/p>\n
In the meantime, PlanB disputed criticism about the impact of Mays block reward halving on price. Responding to a debate which included analyst and researcher, Nic Carter, he argued that the relationship between stock-to-flow and price was verifiable by anyone.<\/p>\n
The effect of a certain cause can be lagged. It is unscientific to claim that the halving effect must occur in 1 day, he explained.<\/p>\n
It is simple: S2F (and thus halving) and price are correlated. And this correlation is not spurious because cointegrated. Anyone can verify this.<\/p>\n
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