If youre a world leader, you may be wondering how to prepare for a Joe Biden win in Novembers U.S. presidential election. If you arent thinking about this, maybe a look at Donald Trumps latest polling numbers in key battlegrounds will get you going. And if youve spent the last 3 years sucking up to Trump, you really, really need to prepare a Biden game plan, because aides to the former vice president have long memories.
But first, an introduction: Im Nahal Toosi, foreign affairs correspondent at POLITICO, and Im filling in this week for the illustrious Ryan Heath. Ive never written a newsletter before, so this could get a little weird.
I recently asked my personal brain trust (a mix of policy, political and diplomatic gurus, including a few Biden campaign advisers) how the rest of the world should prepare for a Biden presidency. Few answered the question directly -- and all insisted theyre not ruling out a Trump win -- but some nuggets from the conversations stood out:
TRUST ISSUES: People expect Biden to embrace alliances and multilateral agreements that Trump spurned, from NATO to the Paris climate deal. But they harbor doubts about long-term U.S. reliability: What if the next GOP president reverses everything Biden does? It wont be enough for Biden to win, an Asian diplomat said. To re-establish global trust in the U.S. brand, Republican lawmakers need to show some unity on foreign policy with the Biden team, he said. Maybe Biden could even appoint a Republican to his Cabinet? And ideally, the diplomat added, Wed like to have Senate confirmation of agreements.
POINT OF LEVERAGE: Some countries may try to use that lack of trust in America as leverage, people close to the Biden campaign concede. Iran, for one, may demand that the U.S. pay it reparations on top of lifting sanctions for it to fully comply once again with the Iran nuclear deal that Trump abandoned. The Palestinians, too, may insist that a Biden-led U.S. make up for the loss of financial aid they suffered under Trump, and then some. Its easy to imagine Americas European allies not coming to Americas defense in such cases. But if Biden appears too conciliatory, even to allies, Republicans are sure to use that against him. Remember the whole apology tours thing?
SEE ME, MAYBE? If you want to perplex global affairs nerds, ask which foreign country Biden should visit first as president. A country in Europe, some said, citing the need to repair a transatlantic relationship battered by Trump. Mexico, countered others, arguing Biden needs to mend ties with a neighbor and key trading partner while also presenting a more humane vision of immigration policy. One person (the Asian diplomat again) stood out with this idea: Biden should first visit the United Nations, sending a signal about his commitment to multilateralism without favoring any one country. A former European ambassador, meanwhile, said that upon taking office, one of Bidens first phone calls must be to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, if only to say this is an important relationship. We have to set it straight.
LOOKING OUT FOR NO. 2: Many foreign officials expect Biden to leave office after one term, so theres lots of interest in his pick for vice president. Much depends on who that is, but theres every expectation that person a woman, Biden has pledged will run for the White House as early as 2024. Some of the rumored candidates have little to no international experience. For now, the Biden campaign is restricting its contacts with foreign officials. Once those limits are lifted, expect diplomats to rush to meet his No. 2.
A FRUSTRATING FRIEND: Should Israels Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu call Biden if he wins? Yes. Will Biden answer? Yes. Will Netanyahu like everything he says? Probably not. True, little is likely to change at the core of the U.S.-Israel relationship, especially U.S. military support for Israel. Biden and Netanyahu also have been friends a long time. But within the Democratic party, theres growing frustration over Israels treatment of the Palestinians, deepened by Netanyahus desire to annex parts of the West Bank. And neither Biden nor his aides can forget Netanyahus efforts to undermine Barack Obamas Iran policy, nor how the Israeli leader has cozied up to Trump. If Biden makes an early move to restore the Iran nuclear deal and Netanyahu publicly fights it, Biden will be furious, a person familiar with the issue told POLITICO. Added one Democratic strategist: Bibi has some atoning to do.
NOTA BENE: Progressives are pressuring Biden to hire aides who meet certain principles some might call it a purity test including having opposed covert operations that harmed civilians. Biden is unlikely to meet all their demands, but that rift in the party is something to watch.
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BORDER LINES
Remember those video games where you had to maneuver around all sorts of barriers and slay a dragon or two to reach a destination? (Are those still around?) Well, thats what overseas travel is going to be like for a while.
With the coronavirus pandemic hitting different countries at different rates, travel rules are constantly shifting. Whats emerging is a spaghetti bowl of travel regulations that will likely act as a brake on the global economic recovery for a long time, the Wall Street Journal says.
These recent headlines alone convey the global jumble:
France, China engage in spat over corona flight restrictions
EU to exclude Serbia, Montenegro from global travel list
Croatia Opens Border to US, flouts EU ban
Reopen the Canada-U.S. border? Canadians say sorry, but no thanks
Thailand tightens borders over fears of second wave of coronavirus
And lets not forget the non-coronavirus reasons countries are citing to restrict who enters their territory. Brexit is one. Another is concern about asylum seekers and refugees.
Slaying dragons might be easier than figuring out this mess.
REALITY CHECK CORNER
China this week imposed unspecified sanctions on three U.S. lawmakers and a American diplomat. And guess what: Some of the targets are thrilled.
Im actually proud of it, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida) said. Anytime a totalitarian and evil regime is against you, you know youre on the right side.
Bummer, joked Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) on Twitter. I was going to take my family to Beijing for summer vacation, right after visiting Tehran.
Beijings sanctions may even help cement unusual alliances in Washington, given the growing bipartisan consensus that the U.S. has to be tougher on China.
One of the sanctioned lawmakers, Rep. Chris Smith, told POLITICO hes not happy about being sanctioned because hed planned to go to China and speak truth to the dictatorship. The New Jersey Republican is a leading human rights voice on Capitol Hill and is accustomed to such attacks. He said the sanctions wont silence him. I fully intend on trying to go again, he said. The sooner, the better.
Beijing may have felt it had no choice but to issue the sanctions as a response to recent American sanctions on Chinese officials. But as my colleague, David Wertime, noted in his China Watcher newsletter, it was a relatively restrained, largely optical response.
If the Trump administration follows through with a blanket travel ban on Chinese Communist Party members, as floated in The New York Times, expect that restraint to disappear fast.
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TECH TOCK, TECH TOCK
NO WAY TO HUAWEI: Britain now says it will ban Chinese telecom firm Huawei from its 5G networks. The about-face is a win for the U.S., which wants other nations to bar the company for security reasons. White House national security adviser Robert OBrien this week met in Paris with European officials about China, while Secretary of State Mike Pompeo heads to the U.K. next week, with China high on top of that agenda. Still, it appears U.S. diplomacy, alone, didnt prompt the U.K. move; U.S. sanctions helped.
YOU WIN SOME ... Apple won a big round in its legal fight with the European Union when the blocs second-highest court ruled that the U.S. company was not on the hook for a tax bill of at least 13 billion, plus interest. The decision is a rebuke to EU competition czar Margrethe Vestager, who has pushed policies designed to ensure that multinational firms pay their fair share of taxes. Vestager could appeal the case, but analysts indicate the odds of a win are slim.
... YOU LOSE SOME The U.S. tech industry and Trump administration suffered a blow, however, in a new decision from Europe's top court, which ruled for the second time that EU data would not be safe from snooping under a transatlantic data protection deal. "The ruling, which cancels the Privacy Shield agreement, throws billions of dollars in digital trade into legal limbo and reignites a spat over surveillance that dates back more than five years to U.S. whistleblower Edward Snowden's revelations about American spying," POLITICO Europe's Vincent Manancourt writes.
In this week's spotlight we examine the intensified cooperation of drug regulators around the world despite their governments' fierce competition for coronavirus treatments and potential vaccines. Guido Rasi, the boss of the European Medicines Agency, says it will help regulators withstand political pressure at home.
POWER PLAYS
WATER WARS: The United States this week declared in unusually explicit terms that it rejects most of Chinas claims of sovereignty in the South China Sea, aligning itself with a 2016 ruling by an international tribunal. The announcement, however, may be more symbolic than anything. That said, Chinas assertiveness is leading its neighbors to step up defense spending. Nowhere has the impact been stronger than in Japan, the Wall Street Journal reports.
EXPLOSIVE IRAN: A string of fires and explosions, some of them at sensitive nuclear and military sites, have bedeviled Iran in recent weeks. The incidents have raised the possibility that Israel and the United States are engaging in covert sabotage of the Islamic Republic. The latest reports say seven ships caught on fire at the Iranian port city of Bushehr.
FIVE MORE YEARS: My colleague Zosia Wanat at POLITICO Europe has four takeaways from Polish President Andrzej Duda's reelection after a knife-edge runoff vote last weekend. As she highlights, the West should brace for five more contentious years on issues like civil liberties, rule of law and climate. Over at The Atlantic, Anne Applebaum dives into how Duda rode a fear of the rainbow plague to victory.
Earlier this week, Trump tweeted congratulations to his friend on his reelection. Duda, however, lamented that Trump hadnt phoned him. Maybe he sent an official letter, he told U.N. Secretary General Antnio Guterres. At least, he thought it was Guterres. Turns out Duda was actually speaking to Russian pranksters.
UNREST IN MALI: Malis president formally dissolved a constitutional court, meeting a demand of protesters whose demonstrations have convulsed the capital, Bamako. It was yet another bid by President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita to defuse tensions over contested parliamentary elections, an unstable security situation and alleged corruption. Many in the opposition June 5th Movement are unlikely to be satisfied, however, unless Keita resigns. The political instability has alarmed neighbors in West Africa and allies such as France given Malis position as a key front in the fight against Islamist jihadists.
The U.S. secretary of State wants to reshape the international dialogue on human rights. On Thursday, Pompeo unveiled a draft report from his Commission on Unalienable Rights, a panel he created to delve into questions such as whether there are too many human rights and whether some matter more than others.
Theres a lot in the draft report for both critics and supporters, including its cautious endorsement of the idea that it sometimes makes sense to prioritize some rights above others. The report could gather dust, especially if Trump loses in November. But if theres a second Trump term or a future Pompeo presidency expect this document to influence how the U.S. approaches human rights.
That has implications for international institutions such as the U.N. Human Rights Council, which Pompeo slammed during his speech unveiling the report. Pompeos remarks were much less nuanced than the draft report. But his claim that the U.S. Declaration of Independence is the most important statement of human rights ever written, also suggests he has less interest in the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights or other international instruments.
HUNGER GOAL GETTING FURTHER AWAY: The United Nations estimates that nearly 690 million people went hungry in 2019, an increase of 60 million people over the last five years, according to an annual study published July 13. And the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report warns that the Covid-19 pandemic could tip over 130 million more people into chronic hunger by the end of 2020, casting yet more doubt on the world's ability to reach the U.N. goal of Zero Hunger by 2030.
TAIWAN FILLS WTO VACANCY: Former Grand Justice of Taiwan's Constitutional Court Lo Chang-fa has been named the new Taiwanese representative to the World Trade Organization, filling a position left vacant since September, the Taiwan News reports.
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BRAIN FOOD
Azeem Ibrahim argues that Narendra Modi is changing India into a Russian-style managed democracy and describes how the roots of his rise can be traced, in part, to historical differences over how one defines Hindu.
In memoriam: Iraq scholar Husham Al-Hashimi was gunned down in Baghdad earlier this month. Hed submitted several pieces to the Center for Global Policy, which is publishing them posthumously.
William Burns, one of Americas most celebrated diplomatic figures, writes that the U.S. must choose from three broad strategic approaches: retrenchment, restoration and reinvention. The answer is not necessarily more cowbell.
Foreign policy? How about interstellar policy? Check out Dust, an immersive sci-fi podcast that seems designed for internationalists. While youre at it, listen to The Second Oil Age, a sci-fi podcast about a post-energy crisis world.
Watch for these:
Losing the Long Game, by Philip Gordon. The book, written by a former top aide to Barack Obama, tries to understand why the United States is so bad at regime change. It comes out in October.
Friendly Fire, by Ami Ayalon, with Anthony David. Ayalon, a former Shin Bet chief, reflects on his life, Israels trajectory and whether the country could become an Orwellian dystopia. The book is due out in September.
ODDS AND ENDS
Barbados is devising a special visa for people who want to work remotely while on its glorious beaches (cc: my editors). Abu Dhabi, meanwhile, wants the world to know its gradually opening back up for visitors.
Uighur activists are using special emojis to draw attention to the plight of their brethren in China, where more than a million Uighur Muslims face detention and abuse that some say is verging on genocide.
Brazils President Jair Bolsonaro, a coronavirus skeptic now in quarantine because he contracted the disease, gets pecked by a large bird known as a rhea. The bird represents us, tweeted one Brazilian politician.
THANKS to editor Emily Cadei, Carmen Paun, Luiza Ch. Savage, David Wertime. Your regular host, Ryan Heath, will be back next week.
See more here:
If Biden wins, will the world take America back? - Politico
