Machine Learning Reveals What Makes People Happy In A Relationship – Forbes

Who you are together is more important than who you are alone.

What makes us happy in a romantic relationship? The question might seem too complex to answer, too varied couple to couple. But a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences attempts to answer just that - using machine learning.

Previous studies on romantic satisfaction were limited in size. By using machine learning, however, researchers were able to analyze a massive amount of data, which included over 11,000 different couples from 43 data sets. Individual studies are many times limited - it is difficult and expensive to recruit couples for the studies. Its also exhausting for the participants. Using machine learning to analyze a large amount of data from pre-existing studies bypasses these problems.

The researchers looked at variables that could predict happiness within a relationship. Some of these, such as neuroticism, political orientation, conscientiousness or family history were qualities of the individuals involved. Others, such as appreciation, affection and perceived partner commitment were qualities of the relationship.

Of these, qualities of the relationship, rather than the individuals involved, contributed more to overall satisfaction. The five most important were how much they believed their partner was committed to the relationship, how much they appreciated their partner, sexual satisfaction, how much they believed their partner was happy in the relationship, and not fighting often.

Appreciation and commitment are key for a fulfilling relationship.

Qualities of the individuals contribute too - but not as much. In fact, 45% of the variability in a relationship is due to the qualities of the relationship. 21% were due to the individuals themselves. In addition, once qualities of the relationship were taken into account, the differences due to the individuals were not as important.

Experiencing negative affect, depression, or insecure attachment are surely relationship risk factors. But if people nevertheless manage to establish a relationship characterized by appreciation, sexual satisfaction, and a lack of conflictand they perceive their partner to be committed and responsivethose individual risk factors may matter little, say the authors.

In other words, for a happy relationship, its more important who you are together than who you are apart.

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Machine Learning Reveals What Makes People Happy In A Relationship - Forbes

AcademicInfluence.com Unveils Machine-Learning Technology for Ranking the World’s Top Colleges and Influential Thought Leaders – PRNewswire

FORT WORTH, Texas, Aug. 4, 2020 /PRNewswire/ --What worries today's prospective college students most? Topping the list are two life-altering decisions they don't want to flub: selecting the right college and choosing the right major.

For students, finding a trusted source for college and degree information to make those huge decisions means sifting through websites that rank colleges without giving users a clear sense for the data, algorithms, and formulas that generated those rankings. In the end, a question lingers: Are these options really the best?

Students need a trustworthy, science-based means to measure genuine excellence. Now they can find it at

https://AcademicInfluence.com

"AcademicInfluence.com uses machine learning and search routines to evaluate the real-world influence of noteworthy individuals, institutions, and other rankable entities," says Dr. Jed Macosko, academic director of AcademicInfluence.com and professor of physics at Wake Forest University. "Never before have inquirers had such a customizable, objective, online tool for discovering the people and institutions that are changing our world. While there is no limit to what can be ranked with our Influence Engine technology, the AcademicInfluence.com website will focus on meeting the needs of students, with rankings of the world's top colleges and most influential thought leaders. Look for sites that explore other topics using our Influence Engine soon."

Founded in October 2016, with funding assistance from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Influence Networksnow part of the EducationAccess groupcreated proprietary, real-time technology that maps lines of influence through constantly updated data repositories online, including Wikipedia and Crossref. Because they consist of billions of open-sourced, crowd-edited data points, these databases result in analysis that resists being gamed or undermined by single-source editorial bias.

"Our results aren't spin, promotion, or paid advertisement but instead reflect true, objective, real-world influence," says Macosko. "The objectivity of AcademicInfluence.com stands in stark contrast to major ranking sites that typically gather data by faculty survey, student opinions, and an over-reliance on self-reportingall of it at least a year out-of-date before it can be used to derive rankings. The difference at AcademicInfluence.com is enlightening."

With its interactive search and Custom College Match tools, AcademicInfluence.com offers students the capabilities they need to find the answers they want. The site also delivers influence rankings to researchers exploring the most authoritative voices in a gamut of disciplines and over time.

AcademicInfluence.com puts to rest the question of the best. And it does so by the best means possible: science. When coupled with the influence of individual choice, it's a powerful combination.

AcademicInfluence.comis the preeminent technology-driven rankings site dedicated to students, researchers, and inquirers from high school through college and beyond, offering resources that connect learners to leaders. AcademicInfluence.com is a part of the EducationAccess group, a family of sites dedicated to lifelong learning and personal growth, including Influence Networks, InfluencePublishers.com (nonfiction publishing and publishers of Bright Notes), IntelligentEducation.com (instructional video library and easy instructional video creation with 3D elements), AlexandriaLibrary.com (free, online library and reader), and soon, Success Portraits (personalized strengths inventory for college and career).

Contact:

Dr. Jed MacoskoAcademic DirectorAcademicInfluence.com[emailprotected](682) 302-4945

SOURCE AcademicInfluence.com

https://AcademicInfluence.com

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AcademicInfluence.com Unveils Machine-Learning Technology for Ranking the World's Top Colleges and Influential Thought Leaders - PRNewswire

IoT automation trend rides the next wave of machine learning, Big Data – Urgent Communications

An array of new methods along with unexpected new pressures cast todays IoT automation efforts in an utterly new light.

Progress today in IoT automation is based on fresh methods employing big data, machine learning, asset intelligence and edge computing architecture. It is also enabled by emerging approaches to service orchestration and workflow, and by ITOps efforts that stress better links between IT and operations.

On one end, advances in IoT automation includerobotic process automation(RPA) tools that use sensor data to inform backroom and clerical tasks. On the other end are true robots that maintain the flow of goods onfactory floors.

Meanwhile, nothing has focused business leaders on automation like COVID-19. Automation technologies have gained priority in light of 2020s pandemic, which is spurring use of IoT sensors, robots and software to enable additional remote monitoring. Still, this work was well underway before COVID-19 emerged.

Cybersecurity Drives Advances in IoT Automation

In particular, automated discovery of IoT environments for cybersecurity purposes has been an ongoing driver of IoT automation. That is simply because there istoo much machine information to manually track,according to Lerry Wilson, senior director for innovation and digital ecosystems at Splunk. The target is anomalies found in data stream patterns.

Anomalous behavior starts to trickle into the environment, and theres too much for humans to do, Wilson said. And, while much of this still requires a human somewhere in the loop, the role of automation continues to grow.

Wilson said Splunk, which focuses on integrating a breadth of machine data, has worked with partners to ensure incoming data can now kick off useful functions in real time. These kinds of efforts are central to emerging information technology/operations technology (IT/OT) integration. This, along with machine learning (ML), promises increased automation of business workflows.

Today, we and our partners are creating machine learning that will automatically set up a work order people dont have to [manually] enter that anymore, he said, adding that what once took the form of analytical reports now is correlated with historic data for immediate execution.

We moved past reporting to action, Wilson said.

Notable use cases Splunk has encountered include systems that collect signals to monitor and optimize factory floor and campus activity as well as to correlate asset information, Wilson indicated.

To read the complete article, visit IoT World Today.

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IoT automation trend rides the next wave of machine learning, Big Data - Urgent Communications

New AI diagnostic tool knows when to defer to a human, MIT researchers say – Healthcare IT News

Machine learning researchers at MIT's Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab, or CSAIL, have developed a new AI diagnostic system they say can do two things: make a decision or diagnosis based on its digital findings or, crucially, recognize its own limitations and turn to a carbon-based lifeform who might make a more informed decision.

WHY IT MATTERSThe technology, as it learns, can also adapt how often it might defer to human clinicians, according to CSAIL, based on their availability and levels of experience.

"Machine learning systems are now being deployed in settings to [complement] human decision makers," write CSAIL researchers Hussein Mozannar and David Sontagin a new paperrecently presented at the International Conference of Machine Learningthat touches, not just on clinical applications of AI, but also on areas such as content moderation with social media sites such as Facebook or YouTube.

HIMSS20 Digital

"These models are either used as a tool to help the downstream human decision maker with judges relying on algorithmic risk assessment tools and risk scores being used in the ICU, or instead these learning models are solely used to make the final prediction on a selected subset of examples."

In healthcare, they point out, "deep neural networks can outperform radiologists in detecting pneumonia from chest X-rays, however, many obstacles are limiting complete automation, an intermediate step to automating this task will be the use of models as triage tools to complement radiologist expertise.

"Our focus in this work is to give theoretically sound approaches for machine learning models that can either predict or defer the decision to a downstream expert to complement and augment their capabilities."

THE LARGER TRENDAmong the tasks the machine learning system was trained on was the ability to assess chest X-rays to potentially diagnose conditions such as lung collapse (atelectasis) and enlarged heart (cardiomegaly).

Importantly, the system was developed with two parts, according to MIT researchers: a so-called "classifier," designed to predict a certain subset of tasks, and a "rejector" that decides whether a specific task should be handled by either its own classifier or ahuman expert.

The team performed experiments focused on medical diagnosis and text/image classification, the team showed that their approach not only achieves better accuracy than baselines, but does so with a lower computational cost and with far fewer training data samples.

While researchers say they haven't yet tested the system with human experts, they did develop"synthetic experts" to enable them to tweak parameters such as experience and availability.

They note that for the machine learning program to work with a new human expert, the algorithm would "need some minimal onboarding to get trained on the person's particular strengths and weaknesses."

Interestingly, in the case of cardiomegaly, researchers found that a human-AI hybrid model performed 8% percent better than either could on its own.

Going forward, Mozannar and Sontag plan to study how the tool works with human experts such as radiologists. They also hope to learn more about how it will process biased expert data, and work with several experts at once.

ON THE RECORD"In medical environments where doctors don't have many extra cycles, it's not the best use of their time to have them look at every single data point from a given patient's file," said Mozannar, in a statement. "In that sort of scenario, it's important for the system to be especially sensitive to their time and only ask for their help when absolutely necessary."

"Our algorithms allow you to optimize for whatever choice you want, whether that's the specific prediction accuracy or the cost of the expert's time and effort," added Sontag. "Moreover, by interpreting the learned rejector, the system provides insights into how experts make decisions, and in which settings AI may be more appropriate, or vice-versa."

"There are many obstacles that understandably prohibit full automation in clinical settings, including issues of trust and accountability," says Sontag. "We hope that our method will inspire machine learning practitioners to get more creative in integrating real-time human expertise into their algorithms."

Twitter:@MikeMiliardHITNEmail the writer:mike.miliard@himssmedia.com

Healthcare IT News is a publication of HIMSS Media.

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New AI diagnostic tool knows when to defer to a human, MIT researchers say - Healthcare IT News

Facebook removes pro-Trump ad aimed at Joe Biden, claiming false information – Fox News

A pro-Trump ad was removed from Facebook after claims that it contained false information, Fox News has learned.

AmericaFirst Action PAC on Tuesday told Fox News that Facebook removed one of its ads, titled "On Hold,"which was placed in Arizona, Pennsylvaniaand Wisconsin on July 24. The ad was flagged by Politifact on July 29, according to the PAC.

"Facebook's decision to take down this ad shows its anti-conservative bias,"America First Communications Director Kelly Sadler told Fox News. "America First Action has logged an appeal, but the threat of anti-conservative bias, targeting, and censorship remains ahead of Election Day in November and we must be vigilant inholding big tech, like Facebook accountable."

TWITTER EXEC IN CHARGE OF FACT-CHECKING MOCKED TRUMP SUPPORTERS, CALLED MCCONNELL 'BAG OF FARTS'

Sadler, during an interview on FoxBusiness on Tuesday, added that this "is just more bias from these social media companies."

"We're going to file an appeal, but there's really little we can do about it," she told host Stuart Varney."These social media giants are monopolies, and ultimately they make the decision of what runs on their platform."

Facebook confirmed to Fox News on Tuesday that the ad had, in fact, been fact-checked. A Facebook spokesperson told Fox News that ads that are fact-checked and found to contain false information are not eligible to run as a paid ad on the social media platform.

The spokesman added that the videos can, instead, run as original content on the group's page.

America First Action, though, said certain versions of the ad were removed in particular states, but the Facebook spokesman said that once the ad was fact-checked as false, all versions would be removed from the platform.

The Facebook spokesperson said that if any version of the ad was still running on the platform, it would be due to a lag in Facebook's fact-checking system.

The ad in question was titled On Hold, and shows a woman calling 9-1-1 and being put on hold. The ad moves to show Democratic nominee former Vice President Joe Biden saying yes, with a "defund the police?" banner.

The ad is currently marked on Facebook with a label saying: "False Information. Checked by independent fact-checkers."

Facebooks fact-checking comes as members of the Trump administration and prominent Republicans have claimed that social media platforms have censoredright-leaning viewpoints.

Attorney General WilliamBarr told Fox News in June that social media platforms are "engaged in censorship"and are acting more like "publishers."

"They originally held themselves out as open forums where people, where the third parties could come and express their views and they built up a tremendous network of eyeballs,"Barr said on "Special Report"in June.

"They had a lot of market power based on thatpresentation," the attorney general added. "And now they are acting much more like publishers because they're censoring particular viewpoints and putting their own content in there to diminish the impact of various people's views."

Twitter, earlier this summer, slapped a warning label on one of President Trump's tweets for the first time, cautioning readers that despite the president's claims, "fact checkers" say there is "no evidence" that expanded, nationwide mail-in voting would increase fraud risks -- and that "experts say mail-in ballots are very rarely linked to voter fraud.

Within minutes, Trump accused Twitter of "interfering in the 2020 Presidential Election,"that the platform "is completely stifling FREE SPEECH"and vowing: "I, as President, will not allow it to happen!"

Two days later, the president signed an executive order that interprets Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996 as not providing statutory liability protections for tech companies that engage in censorship and political conduct. It also cuts federal funding for social media platforms that censor users' political views.

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Facebook removes pro-Trump ad aimed at Joe Biden, claiming false information - Fox News

Censorship or fighting disinformation? Russia to use AI to create controversial fake news filter, as Facebook efforts stall – RT

Russia plans to create a data service to tackle 'fake news,' the country's media watchdog Rospechat said on Tuesday. US social media giant Facebook has also attempted to construct a similar system but progress has been slow.

The automated editor's job description will include comparing as many news-related facts as possible and finding the wrong ones, Rospechat's deputy chief Ilya Lazarev wrote in a letter to the Ministry of Communications, which was quoted by Moscow business daily RBK on Tuesday.

Rospechat expects the counter-misinformation aggregator to be completed by 2023 and hopes to make it available to both organizations and individuals. In order to get the project moving, the watchdog has requested 94.3 million rubles ($1.3 million) from federal authorities.

Previously, Human Rights Watch - an American lobby group bankrolled by George Soros - has claimed that the Russian government has been building an entire arsenal of tools to reign over information, internet users, and communications networks which could further suffocate independent media in the country.

Rospechat's fake news filter is somewhat similar to a tool Facebook has been attempting to create. In 2016, its founder Mark Zuckerberg announced plans to develop a 'misinformation' filter but four years later, there is still no sign of it. Zuckerberg admitted then that the problems were complex, both technically and philosophically.

Russia has significantly expanded laws and regulations tightening control over internet infrastructure, online content, and the privacy of communications.

If carried out to their full restrictive potential, the new measures will severely undermine the ability of people in Russia to exercise their human rights online, including freedom of expression and freedom of access to information.

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Censorship or fighting disinformation? Russia to use AI to create controversial fake news filter, as Facebook efforts stall - RT

Twitter will now censor links that promote hateful speech – Digital Trends

Twitter is updating its policies on unsafe links to patch one of its most abused loopholes. Starting Thursday, July 30, the social network will censor tweets that link to hate speech and violence.

In a tweet, Twitter added that accounts that frequently tweet links featuring hateful conduct may also be potentially suspended. The social network tends to take action on unsafe links in one of the two ways: It will either completely ban a particular link so that it cant be tweeted at all or display a warning to anyone who clicks the link.

Twitter will block links to content that promotes violence against, threatens or harasses other people on the basis of race, ethnicity, national origin, caste, sexual orientation, gender, gender identity, religious affiliation, age, disability, or serious disease, the updated policy says.

Since Twitters policies on links didnt cover these categories in the past, malicious users were able to circumvent the social networks rules by tweeting links instead of sharing hate speech or violent content directly.

Our goal is to block links in a way thats consistent with how we remove Tweets that violate our rules. Well start taking action under these updated guidelines on Thursday, July 30, the social networks official support handle wrote in a tweet.

Apart from hate speech, Twitter doesnt allow sharing links that redirect to malware, phishing scams, websites that sell buy, sell, or facilitate transactions in illegal goods or services, media, or other content created by terrorist organizations or violent extremist groups, and more.

Twitter told Digital Trends this is a continuation of its work to improve their policies across Twitter to promote healthy conversation and that by blocking such links, its addressing a gap that failed to protect people on the basis of race, ethnicity, national origin, caste, sexual orientation, gender, gender identity, religious affiliation, age, disability, or serious disease.

Over the past few months, as the coronavirus pandemic continues to spur misinformation and conspiracy theories, Twitter has actively employed its link policies to censor misleading tweets. In May, for instance, it marked a handful of URLs of the conspiracy movie Plandemicas unsafe and displayed a precautionary warning to anyone who tried to visit them.

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Twitter will now censor links that promote hateful speech - Digital Trends

What TikTok Hides Beneath Its Addicting Little Videos Should Scare You – The Federalist

TikTok, a popular app to create short, looping videos, is owned by ByteDance, a Beijing-based internet technology company. It debuted in China under the name Douyin in 2016. In 2017, TikTok launched for iOS and Android devices outside China. When ByteDance merged with Musical.ly in 2018, TikTok became a global sensation.

TikToks growth in the last three years is nothing short of phenomenal. It boasts more than 800 million active users worldwide and has been downloaded more than 2 billion times from the iPhone App and Google Play stores. Its especially popular among young people, with 41 percent of users aged 16-24.

Many TikTok videos are fun, goofy, and short perfectly suited for a generation lacking much of an attention span and hungry for non-traditional entertainment. Furthering the appeal of the app is its mechanism that promotes the videos of relatively unknown users, allowing even those with small followings to go viral.

Tiktoks popularity has turned ByteDance into one of the worlds most valuable start-up companies, but has also invited scrutiny. Like almost all social media companies, TikTok collects an enormous amount of data on its users, including IP addresses and browsing history.

Researchers have raised serious privacy and data security concerns about the app for years. In early 2019, TikTok paid a $5.7 million fine to the U.S. Federal Trade Commission for illegally collecting and exposing locations of young children, as well as failing to delete information on underage children when instructed to do so. TikTok was under similar investigations in the United Kingdom and India for allegations over its collection and misuse of data gathered from children.

In January 2020, internet research company Check Point Research reported several vulnerabilities within the TikTok application, which researchers said could easily allow malicious attackers to hurt a TikTok user by making private videos public or revealing information saved on the account, such as personal emails. Then, in February, Tiktok reportedly took advantage of an iPhone system loophole, enabling the app to access any data an iPhone user copies to his clipboard without the users knowledge.

Unlike western social media companies, like Google, that use collected user data mainly for targeted advertising, ByteDance works closely with the Chinese government to advance Beijings foreign policy objectives, promote government-sanctioned propaganda, help Beijing police dissidents, and censor free speech for users both inside and outside of China.

Zhang Fuping, ByteDances vice president, is the head of the companys Chinese Communist Party committee, which is part of the companys governance structure. CCP members at the company routinely host gatherings to study the speeches of CCPs General Secretary Xi Jinping and pledge to follow the party in technological innovation.

According to a report by Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), ByteDance has played an active role in condoning the CCPs human rights abuses against Uyghur Muslims in China by collaborating with public security bureaus across China, including in Xinjiang where it plays an active role in disseminating the party-states propaganda on Xinjiang. The ASPI report calls TikTok a vector for censorship and surveillance.

Even more worryingly, ByteDance has applied Beijings censorship to non-Chinese citizens as well. The Guardian reported that TikTok instructs its content moderators to censor videos that mention Tiananmen Square, Tibetan independence, or the banned religious group Falun Gong, all sensitive subjects that the Chinese government has censored for decades.

According to The Guardians report, TikToks censorship comes in two forms. One is to delete content and often the owners account from its platform. This is what happened to Feroza Aziz, an American TikTok star. Her account was deleted after she posted a video criticizing Beijings mass internment of Uyghur Muslims. Only after media outcry did TikTok reinstate Azizs account.

Another form of censorship TikTok deploys is to leave the content up to limit its distribution through TikToks algorithmically curated feedessentially what amounts to shadow banning. Two Quartz reporters experimented with TikTok by posting a clip of the famous Tank Man, the young Chinese man who stood in front a column of tanks right before Chinas Peoples Liberation Army cracked down on pro-democracy protestors in Tiananmen Square in 1989. They quickly found out that the clip was only visible to the TikTok account owner but not to anyone else.

In addition to censorship concerns, Vicky Xu, one of the authors of the ASPI report on TikTok and a human rights activist, tweeted: Its a really bad idea to let TikTok have young peoples passwords when theyre future politicians and scientists that Beijing may choose to target. In other words, the information TikTok collects today may assist Chinas intelligence community in blackmailing people in the future.

Reports of TikTok serving as a tool for the CCPs censorship and surveillance prompted U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) to request the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to investigate TikTok in October 2019. That same month, Sen.Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AK) also asked Joseph Maguire, the acting director of national intelligence, to determine the national security risk posed by TikTok.

The Pentagon barred all U.S. military personnel from having TikTok on their devices and has been joined by several U.S. government agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security and the Transportation Security Agency, in prohibiting TikTok on government-issued devices. After India formally banned TikTok and 58 other Chinese apps due to security concerns in July this year, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo indicated the United States might follow suit.

President Trumps recent talk of banning the app, therefore, shouldnt come as a surprise. Yet to those who loathe Trump, anything Trump supports, even if it is the right thing or good policy, should be assigned to the most menacing motive.

Taylor Lorenz, a technology reporter for The New York Times, in mid-July tweeted a screenshot from Brian Feldman, a New York Magazine writer, claiming that the selective fear of TikTok is based on xenophobic and racist biases. Lorenz called it a good explanation. She later deleted her tweet following the outcry of both American and Chinese journalists who cover China. Last weekend, Lorenz published a long article on Trumps possible TikTok ban in The New York Times, yet barely mentioned TikToks well-documented security risks and censorship on behalf of the Chinese government.

Instead, Lorenz presented the app in the most positive light, calling it an information and organizing hub for Gen Z activists and politically-minded young people. She wrote that banning the app would disrupt a new entertainment business and a critical outlet for social justice issues. Then she floated the idea that Trumps possible ban of TikTok is likely a retaliation because a few users declared they were responsible for creating outsized expectations for Trumps rally at Tulsa in June by registering for tickets without any intention to show up.

Not to be outdone, Vogue magazine chimed in, claiming Trump wanted to ban TikTok not out of national security concerns but in retaliation against Sarah Cooper, a comedian who became famous by lip-syncing Trumps speech and interviews on the app.

If Vogues wild speculation sounds like a bad joke, whats not funny is that former top Obama official Samantha Power tweeted the story to her more than 223,000 Twitter followers. Power rose to fame by covering the Yugoslav War, served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations during the Obama administration, and is rumored to be Joe Bidens top choice for the secretary of State position should he win the 2020 presidential election. Its inexcusable, given all her advocacy for human rights and background in foreign policy, that she would lend her credibility to such unfounded speculation rather than taking TikToks national security threat seriously.

Banning TikTok is the right policy to protect not just Americas national security interests but also safeguard the privacy and freedom of expression of millions of Americans. Microsoft is in discussions to buy TikToks U.S. operation, a deal that if completed will ensure at least the data collection for American users will follow U.S. law and will not fall in the hands of the Chinese government. Until a change like that has fixed its many dangerous qualities, any defense of TikTok is simply indefensible.

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What TikTok Hides Beneath Its Addicting Little Videos Should Scare You - The Federalist

First Mover: As Fed Nears Inflation Rubicon, Analysts See $50K Bitcoin in Play – Yahoo Finance

The Federal Reserve appears ready to pursue yet another untestedstrategy that could ultimately boost inflation and possibly prices for bitcoin.

The Fedis preparing to effectively abandon its strategy of pre-emptively lifting interest rates to head off higher inflation,according to a new report in theWall Street Journal.

The shift signals an explicit willingness by the central bankto tolerate higher inflation, at a time when the spreading coronavirus continues to ravage the economy. TheU.S.unemployment rate stands at11%, a levelnot witnessed since the early 1940s until this year.

Related: Bitcoin Futures Interest Soars as Bond Yields Fall to Record Lows: Industry Exec

TheFeds extra loosening ofmonetary policycould help support prices for bitcoin, which many cryptocurrency investors speculate could serve as an effective hedge against inflation, similar to gold. Bitcoin prices have already soared 58% this year, beating silvers 36% andgolds 30%, not to mention the 2% gain in the Standard & Poors 500 Index of large stocks.

Bitcoin rose 1.5% on Monday to $11,338.

As more investors look to digital goldas an inflation hedge in an increasingly digitized world amidst unprecedented government money printing, the cryptocurrency research firm Messari wrote Monday, we know that it wont take much of an institutional allocation until $50,000 bitcoin is back on the table.

The Fedalready has taken monetary policy to a new level of extraordinary this year,pumpingnearly $3 trillion of freshly created money into financial markets earlier and pushing its total assets to about $7 trillion.A growing number of investorsin both digital-asset and traditional markets say theflood of dollars could whittle downthe U.S. currencys purchasing power.

Related: Blockchain Bites: Hedge Fund Down, Banana Bets and the Twitter Hack Fallout

The dollar index, a gauge of the the currencys strength in foreign exchange markets, fell 4% in July, thebiggest monthly dropsince 2010. And the Wall Street brokerage firm Jefferies now predicts that the dollar could fall as much as 15%, according to CNBC.

Bank of America analysts wrote Monday in a report that its becoming a popular trade to bet against the dollar, since investors are worried about the long-term impact of the rapid accumulation of U.S. debt for the U.S. dollars reserve-currency status.

As gold, silver, equities, and long bonds reach record high levels, and the U.S. dollar slumps, the king of cryptocurrenciesmay be back in the spotlight for the foreseeable future,Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer of the cryptocurrency-focused firm Arca, wrote Monday in a weekly blog.

Under the Feds policy shift, according to the Wall Street Journal, the central bankwould allow inflation to drift above a 2% target before raising rates. The idea is that above-target inflation would offsetperiods where consumer price increases were previously below the mark, as has been the case for most of the past two decades.

The goal is not to increase inflation per se, but to provide assurances to investors that interest rates would remain lowfor a long time, according to the paper. Such accommodation could help to assure a faster economic recovery.

Yet, higher inflation could further distortalready uncanny signals emanating from bond markets, further undermining the dollars attractiveness. Nominal yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds are currently around 0.6%, close to historic lows. Once inflation is factored in, thereal yields equate tonegative 1%.

Assuming nominal yields dont rise much anytime soon, an inflation rate above 2% would cause bond investors to fall even further behind.

Negative real rates imply a loss in purchasing power from holding U.S. Treasuries,the ideal conditions for non-income producing assets such as gold and silver but also crypto assets like bitcoin, the analysis firm Delphi Digital wrote on July 31.

Theres some risk that a fresh panic in markets might prompt investors to rush back into dollars, which couldmeana redux of the March crash inbitcoin prices.

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But according to an Aug. 2 Bloomberg News story, the next risk-off scenario might not see investors rushing into dollars, due to theflood of liquidity unleashed by the Fed.

Any haven rally is likely to be shallower than in previous years, according to the report, while the possible extent of depreciation remains the same.

Everything hinges on the dollar right now, Mati Greenspan, founder of the cryptocurrency-focused research firm Quantum Economics, wrote Monday in an emailto subscribers.

BTC: Price: $11,186 (BPI) | 24-Hr High: $11,480 | 24-Hr Low: $11,164

Trend:Bitcoin is again struggling to find a foothold above $11,400 amid signs of buyer exhaustion on the three-day chart.

The number one cryptocurrency by market value is currently trading near $11,290, having hit a high of $11,424 during the Asian trading hours. Tuesday is the second straight day of bull failure above $11,400. Prices hit a high of $11,480 on Monday, but printed a UTC close below $11,240.

Essentially, bitcoins recovery rally from Sundays flash crash low of $10,659 has stalled with the area above $11,400 acting as stiff resistance.

The bulls need quick progress now, or the focus would shift to the uptrend exhaustion signaled by a major doji candle seen on the three-day chart.

A doji occurs when prices see two-way business during a specific period. While it is usually considered a sign of indecision, in this case, it has appeared following a notable rally to 11-month highs above $12,100. As such, it represents buyer fatigue.

The three-day charts relative strength index (RSI) is also reporting overbought conditions with an above-70 reading. Thus, a pullback to $11,000 cant be ruled out. A move below that psychological support would expose the former hurdle-turned-support at $10,500 (February high).

Alternatively, a sustained move above $11,400 on the hourly chart would strengthen the case for a re-test of recent highs above $12,000.

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First Mover: As Fed Nears Inflation Rubicon, Analysts See $50K Bitcoin in Play - Yahoo Finance

TUM team finds Bitcoin accounts for 2/3 of total energy consumption of cryptocurrencies – Green Car Congress

Researchers from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) have analyzed 20 cryptocurrenciesaccounting for more than 98% of the total market capitalization of cryptocurrenciesand found that Bitcoin accounts for 2/3 of the total energy consumption of cryptocurrencies. Understudied cryptocurrencies represent the remaining 1/3. Their paper is published in the journal Joule.

Bitcoin is a digital currency based on a cryptographically secured distributed ledger; it is the first and best-known blockchain application. Bitcoin relies on a computationally intensive validation process called mining that requires specific hardware and considerable amounts of electricity to reach consensus about ownership and transactions.

Estimates of Bitcoin energy consumption based on different methodologies and assumptions, 20172020. Energy consumption is presented in gigawatt (GW). Gallersdrfer et al.

However, the authors note, most studies have been focusing exclusively on Bitcoin and have ignored the more than 500 further mineable coins and tokens. In the Joule paper, the researchers analyze 20 cryptocurrencies, which account for more than 98% of the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies.

To estimate the energy consumption of cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin, we resort to a methodology proposed by Krause and Tolaymatthat employs hash rates of cryptocurrency networks and suitable mining devices. Hash rates measure the processing power; they describe the number of attempts per second to solve a block in the so-called proof-of-work mining process.

Based on the underlying algorithms, current hash rates, and suitable mining devices, we conclude that Bitcoin accounts for 2/3 of the total energy consumption, and understudied cryptocurrencies represent the remaining 1/3. Therefore, understudied currencies add nearly 50% on top of Bitcoins energy hunger, which already alone may cause considerable environmental damage. Including the remaining hundreds of mineable coins and tokens, which account for the 1.77% market capitalization not captured by the top 20, would further increase the share of energy consumption caused by cryptocurrencies besides Bitcoin.

Gallersdrfer et al.

Resources

Gallersdrfer et al. (2020) Energy Consumption of Cryptocurrencies Beyond Bitcoin, Joule (2020) doi: 10.1016/j.joule.2020.07.013

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TUM team finds Bitcoin accounts for 2/3 of total energy consumption of cryptocurrencies - Green Car Congress