BlackSky Awarded IARPA Contract to Develop Platform for Global Construction Monitoring Using Next Generation Artificial Intelligence – Business Wire

HERNDON, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--BlackSky, a leading provider of global monitoring services and geospatial insights, today announced an award from the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) for a multi-phase, multi-year research contract. IARPA is responsible for leading research programs to overcome difficult challenges relevant to the U.S. intelligence community.

BlackSky has been selected to aid in the development of IARPAs Space-based Machine Automated Recognition Technique (SMART) Program. The SMART program aims to automate the quantitative analysis of space-based imagery to perform broad-area searches for natural and man-made events using time-series imagery. BlackSky will expand upon its Spectra AI platform to develop a responsive system that can automatically monitor large-scale construction of critical infrastructure such as military bases, stadiums, campuses, dams, and airports.

This is a tremendous breakthrough in unsupervised learning for our Spectra AI platform and an unprecedented step toward the future of global monitoring, said Brian OToole, CEO of BlackSky. The IARPA SMART program is a natural fit for BlackSky given our deep expertise in geospatial analytics and our proven ability to deliver first-to-know insights.

Under the contract, BlackSky will create open source, supervised, and semi-supervised learning algorithms to recognize data patterns specific to large-scale construction projects. The combined effort will leverage the resources of NASAs and U.S. Geological Survey Landsats constellation and Sentinel, the European space agencys constellation.

About BlackSky LLC

BlackSky is a global monitoring company. We monitor activities and facilities worldwide by harnessing the worlds emerging sensor networks and leveraging our own satellite constellation. We process millions of observations daily from space, air, environmental sensors, asset tracking sensors, Industrial IoT, and Internet-enabled narrative sources. BlackSkys on-demand swarm of satellites can image a location multiple times throughout the day. We monitor for pattern-of-life anomalies to produce alerts and enhance situational awareness. Our monitoring service is powered by cutting-edge compute techniques including machine learning, artificial intelligence, computer vision, and natural language processing. BlackSkys global monitoring is available via a simple subscription and requires no IT infrastructure or setup. For more information visit http://www.blacksky.com

Originally posted here:
BlackSky Awarded IARPA Contract to Develop Platform for Global Construction Monitoring Using Next Generation Artificial Intelligence - Business Wire

Storming the Capitol: Americans are fed up with liberal socialists, media, big tech, corrupt government – ocalapost.com

Washington A man says he recorded the moment that police opened barricades and encouraged the crowd to storm the Capitol. Some police officers, which has been verified, even took selfies with protesters. The video, however, is short and is difficult to tell if it is actually in the context in which it appears to be.

Article continued below

For months, America watched as rioters, or protesters as CNN, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Rashida Tlaib, Jamaal Bowman, and Cori Bush, refer to them, burned down businesses, police stations, and destroyed millions of dollars in property.

The aforementioned socialists are also known as the Squad.

The rioters maimed, killed, and demanded to be heard. BLM and ANTIFA were accepted by AOC and Ilhan Omar, who openly hates America while embracing Islam.

During this time, those on the left, including Kamala Harris and Joe Biden, stated that the protesters must endureor stay strong. The rioters and anarchists were not condemned or referred to as terrorists even as they ran off police officers and burned a police station and other businesses to the ground.

Facebook, Google, and Twitter did not block videos, or ban the accounts of any CNN reporters or politicians who referred to the rioters as protesters. No, instead, the tech giants glorified the mayhem and supported it. They even allowed videos to be promoted and advertised whilst preventing any political video portraying Biden or his family in a bad light from being sponsored or promoted.

On Wednesday, Trump supporters turned up in droves at the Capitol to show their support for President Donald Trump hoping for the Senate to keep socialism out of the Whitehouse.

Emotions were high and many protesters stormed the Capitol building in hopes of swaying the political agenda of the corrupt establishment.

Many, wrote on Facebook, The people should not fear their government. The Government should fear their people.

Amanda Collins wrote, This is as American as it gets. Storming the Capitol to shutdown tyranny.

Democrats immediately moved to label anyone at the protest as a terrorist or right-wing extremists. AOC referred to them as white supremacists.

During the incident, an unarmed Air Force veteran, Ashli Babbitt, was shot and killed by a Capitol police officer. That officer has since been placed on administrative leave. Chief of Police Steven Sund confirmed this information with Ocala Post.

The shooting was captured on video and it was confirmed that Babbitt was not armed and had not threatened any officers. She was shot through a window.

Those on the left, and those who have been bought and paid for, immediately moved to blame President Donald Trump, calling for Congress to invoke Amendment 25. Including, Kamala Harristhe same woman who, over the summer, told rioters protests will not and should not stop. She continually referred to the burning of a police station as a peaceful protest and not a riot. She refused to recognize the rioters as so.

In a video, Kamala said, But [protesters] are not going to stop. Theyre not going to stop. Theyre not. This is a movement. Im telling you. Theyre not going to stop, and everyone, beware. Because theyre not going to stop. Theyre not going to stop before election day in November, and they are not going to stop after election day. And everyone should take note of that on both levels. That theyre not going to let up. And they should not, and we should not.

Kamala was never condemned by the left, AOC, CNN, ABC, CBS, USA Today, Huff Post, or any other news outlet or socialist for her remarks. She was never accused of inciting a riot that devasted more than one city. She was never accused of being a part of the creation of police free zones.

During the George Floyd riots, President Trump Tweeted out against the violence and threatened to send the National Gaurd. The rioters then doubled down on their agenda. In response to President Trumps Facebook posts and tweets, the two tech giants interfered and, even though President Trump was against the violence, they removed his posts. Later, they allowed them to be visible but attached a warning label to his posts in an attempt to keep the riot momentum going. President Trump was damned if he did and damned if he didnt.

Article continued below

During the January 6, 2021, protests at the Capitol, President Trump tweeted out several messages to his supporters denouncing violence.

Additionally, President Trump posted a video that was deleted by Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. Following the deletion, President Trump was blocked from being able to post to his social media accounts.

Article continued below

The tech giants openly admitted Thursday to shadow banning Trump. In a statement, Mark Zuckerberg said Facebook deleted the video because he felt the video message was violent in nature and would incite further violence.

Shadowbanning, also called stealth banning, ghost banning, or comment ghosting, is when tech giants block or partially block a user or their content from an online community so that it will not be readily apparent to the user that they have been banned.

Ocala Post was able to obtain a copy of the video.

Article Continued Below

The video was deleted, but rioters burning down a police station and allowing the videos to be monetized is acceptable by Facebook and Twitter standards.

Anna O., wrote, According to the new Democrats and woke snowflakes, rioting, looting, burning, and killing cops is a good thing. They have supported it all year up until now without a word. So I guess he is safe!

Samantha Volpe, wrote, I think we do need an uprising or revolution. These people wanted to defund police and condoned heavy rioting and burning down a town. Now they will be in power? No, no, no.

There were other tweets sent out condemning Wednesdays violence as well.

Article Continued Below

Essentially, despite video surveillance evidence and eyewitness testimony presented during multiple election fraud hearings, the electoral votes were given in favor of Biden.

The overwhelming evidence was completely ignored.

Facebook and Twitter said they have blocked President Trump from posting indefinitely, once again, violating free speech rights and acting as a publisher.

For years, President Trump was accused of, with zero evidence, of winning a rigged election by way of Russian influence and collusion. This was the headline in every other liberal media outlet paper across the county for the last four years. This was all followed by a bogus impeachment attempt. Which is, again, being spearheaded by Ilhan Omar.

A person could not even show support in public without being beaten. In one of the dozens of cases, a man was beaten and a CNN commentator publicly mocked him.

Now, during the 2020 election, when there was actually hard, physical evidence, evidence tampering, and illegal, last-minute changes to Pennsylvania voting laws in order to assist and benefit Biden during the election, socialist communists such as AOC, Nancy Pelosi, and Ilhan Omar turned their heads and still put the blame on President Trump.

Facebook and Twitter conspired and deleted videos showing the fraud, only to later put them back up and backpedal.

Facebook, Twitter, and Google also conspired and blocked stories about the crime and large scale corruption inside the Biden family. A damning story that was first published in the New York Times was immediately deleted and blocked from the tech giants. A story which outlined that Joe Biden, his wife Jill Biden, and his son Hunter Biden all have profited immensely from China and the Ukraine.

Many, many people have turned to Facebook and demanded a Revolution. Now, that parts of the Government have seen that the people are fed up, many of those elected officials are scared and are demanding those who came into the Capitol be arrested. Not just because they stormed the Capitol, but because the crooked politicians, both Republican and Democratic, now know the strength of the people in numbers.

A government should never be able to control its people or have any kind of power over them. No more than the government should have control of the internet, which, is exactly what Shiou-Ming Wu wants the U.S to docontrol the internet and its people.

While some laws were broken when storming the Capitol, and property damage is not acceptable, neither is the loss of life, Americans are certainly tired of the tyranny. However, any time an American expresses that sentiment, they are referred to as a right-wing extremist, white supremest, conspiracy theorist, or sovereign citizenseven by some law enforcement officials.

In contrast, what would have happened if the Boston Tea Party had not taken place?

Quick history lesson: In 1773, American colonists, frustrated and angry at Britain for imposing taxation without representation, dumped 342 chests of tea, imported by the British East India Company into the harbor. The event was the first major act of defiance to British rule over the colonists. It showed Great Britain that Americans wouldnt take taxation and tyranny sitting down, and rallied American patriots across the 13 colonies to fight for independence.

The Boston Tea Party was not an election, but the ideology may be the same.

Now, in 2021, America faces a much larger, more unscrupulous government. Americans face coercive big tech and left-wing media who manipulate the truth and the new president is not likely to bypass the media and post the truth as President Trump did.

President Trump was not a career politician, which is why he was so well-liked and admired.

When interviewed, Attorney Mark Levin said it best.

See the article here:

Storming the Capitol: Americans are fed up with liberal socialists, media, big tech, corrupt government - ocalapost.com

Section 230: After US Capitol Riots, It Is Time to Hold Social Media Platforms Responsible – International Business Times, Singapore Edition

For a long time, social media giants have evaded any responsibility regarding content on their platforms. It has enabled malicious actors to spread misinformation and hate speech with little to no consequences. While all social media platforms self-moderate the contents, many escape scrutiny to reach thousands of users. The storming of the US Capitol by pro-Trump supporters on January 6 was one great example of how things could go wrong.

Many supporters of US President Donald Trump, who attended the protest against alleged election fraud at the US Capitol, coordinated their actions on Parler, a social media platform that has become popular amongst the right-wing groups. Many actively talked about gun violence on Parler before the protest.

Even though Facebook, Twitter and YouTube with a larger audience than Parler took action against many infuriating posts, including President Trump's video address where he said he loved his supporters even though they had violated law and order, it was too late. That brings to the question, should the platforms not be held responsible?

While many believe that they should be held accountable, social media companies have hidden behind the First Amendment of the US Constitution that protects free speech and freedom of expression. The social media platforms with algorithms that aim to facilitate audience engagement have been responsible for spreading hate speech and conspiracy theories, even though unintended.

Many studies have shown how YouTube algorithms favor conspiracy theories, recommending videos related to certain topics like the 9/11 attack or JFK assassination. While all these platforms say they are in favor of the First Amendment that protects free speech and freedom of expression, they cannot evade the responsibility of instigating riots.

Hundreds of conspiracy theories related to fraud in the 2020 Presidential Election circulated on all these platforms, leading to the violent Capitol Hill protest. Before that, misinformation related to COVID-19 and vaccine spread like wildfire for months before they were banned or labeled by the platforms.

Virginia Senator Mark Warner, who is the vice-chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, called the social media companies "collaborators" who facilitated the violence that could have been suppressed weeks ago. "The collaborators include some of the wealthiest companies in our country. The Facebooks, the Twitters, the Googles who allow this kind of disinformation. Their 11th hour move to take down Trump's Twitter or Facebook page is way too little, too late," Warner said in a panel on cybersecurity on Thursday.

However, the main culprit here is Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act (1996). It shields internet companies from any legal liability arising from content on their platforms. By definition, prosecutors cannot hold any internet company social media platforms, online news outlets and forums responsible for any comment.

While President Trump has been a vocal critic of the act and has urged Republican lawmakers to scrap it completely, his motives are different. He has accused Facebook and Twitter of silencing conservative voices and "shadow banning" their posts. Trump even vetoed the National Defense Authorization Act after lawmakers failed to address revoking Section 230. But the House bypassed the veto with two-thirds of majority.

He is not alone among Republicans, though. Texas Senator Ted Cruz also spoke about repealing Section 230 in the wake of Facebook and Twitter limiting the reach of Hunter Biden's story by the New York Post.

But after the Capitol Hill attack, repealing or at least amending Section 230 may become a possibility with bipartisan support. President-elect Joe Biden also hasn't been in the favor of the act. "The idea is that Section 230 should be revoked immediately for Zuckerberg and other platforms. It should be revoked because it is not merely an internet company. It is propagating falsehoods they know to be false," Biden said.

Now with House and Senate majority besides the presidency, Democrats could find Bipartisan support to repeal Section 230 completely, holding the platforms, including right-wing news outlets and forums like thedonald.win, responsible for spreading hate speech, conspiracy theories and violence.

"I still don't see platforms taking this seriously. It will be interesting to see if in the wake of this Democrats find a spine and do something to break up the centralized power of the platforms," said Dr Daniel Angus, a misinformation expert at the Queensland University of Technology, told ABC Australia.

While repealing it would be a good initiative, there could be repercussions too. Politicians could take advantage of it by forcing platforms to keep any content. For example, gun rights groups or white supremacy groups could continue to thrive if they do not spread hate speech with political support. Even though both are problematic, they may not necessarily violate hate speech rules.

1 of 5

Furthermore, governments can take advantage of that by silencing dissent. During the Hong Kong protests, Arab Spring and recent Belarus protests, social media platforms played a key role in the mass mobilization against government suppression. If other countries decide to follow the US, they may find a weapon against social media platforms, banning them from hosting any content that is anti-government, like China does.

See the original post:

Section 230: After US Capitol Riots, It Is Time to Hold Social Media Platforms Responsible - International Business Times, Singapore Edition

China-US tech war: Trump’s ban on Alipay and WeChat Pay another problem for Biden to deal with – The Star Online

US President Donald Trumps new executive order banning transactions with eight Chinese apps, including Alipay and WeChat Pay, marks the latest escalation of the US-China tech war and will be a problem the incoming Biden administration will need to manage, analysts said.

President-elect Joe Biden will be sworn into office in two weeks and it is not clear whether he plans to implement this order, which is meant to take effect in 45 days.

However, the direct financial impact on the targeted apps and their operators is likely to be limited due to uncertainties over the orders implementation and the limited exposure of the apps to the US market, analysts said.

The latest executive order from the White House cited national security concerns, saying the Chinese programs could provide the personal data of American citizens to the Chinese government. If the order goes into effect, the US Commerce Department will be responsible for deciding which transactions are prohibited.

The order covers Ant Groups Alipay as well as Tencent Holdings financial arm WeChat Pay and its QQ Wallet and messaging app QQ. Other apps on the blacklist include scanning app CamScanner, cross platform sharing tool SHAREit, video sharing app VMate, and Beijing Kingsoft Office Softwares WPS Office.

Wang Yong, a professor at the Peking University School of International Studies, said Trumps latest move was an attempt to set obstacles in Bidens policy towards China just before his administration leaves office.

[President Trump] dug a lot of holes. The Biden administration will need to pay a higher price, especially in political capital, [if they want to] improve the Sino-US relationship, Wang said.

The ban comes five months after a similar move against TikTok and WeChat, although that executive action has since stalled amid a series of legal challenges. Beijing-based ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, failed to meet a US-imposed deadline of December 4 for it to divest its short video platform as its subsequent deal with Oracle to take partial ownership is still being scrutinised by both sides. Meanwhile, TikTok has yet to be hit with any further action from Washington.

Several US courts have temporarily blocked the implementation of TikToks US ban after the legality of the executive order was challenged by ByteDance. In a ruling in September, District Court Judge Carl J. Nichols blocked the phase one ban, saying the US president had overstepped his authority in invoking a national emergency as the reason for the action.

With the latest action, Ant Group which halted dual initial public offerings in Shanghai and Hong Kong in November after Chinese regulators stepped in now finds a shadow cast over its overseas business despite having a limited presence in the US.

Ant revealed in its prospectus that Alipay had more than one billion users and 80 million merchants in China, but cited figures from research firm Sensor Tower showing that the app was only downloaded 207,000 times in the US last year from Apples App Store and Google Play.

Ant is affiliated with Alibaba, owner of the South China Morning Post.

Ant declined to comment. Tencent did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said on Wednesday that the executive order was another example of the US abusing its national power and unreasonably suppressing foreign companies.

Sensor Tower data showed Tencents QQ was downloaded 296,000 times from US app stores in 2020 compared with 40.7 million in China in the same year. Camscanner, the image scanner, was the most popular of the banned apps with 4.4 million US downloads last year.

China is still the priority market for most of these apps, including Alipay and WeChat Pay, said Nick Marro, global trade lead at The Economist Intelligence Unit. These moves might frustrate international expansion plans, but they wont dent the main revenue sources or user bases for these companies.

Jim Fitzsimmons, head of the cybersecurity practice in Asia-Pacific for risk consultancy Control Risks, said the impact of the executive order on US companies working with the Chinese businesses would be minimal because theres very few people who really use those applications inside the US.

At the same time, it remains unclear how Biden will respond to Trumps executive orders.

All executive orders signed by one president can be easily reversed by a later president with a new executive order. So Biden can just revoke it with a new executive order he can write within a few hours and then sign it, said Dov Levin, a professor at the University of Hong Kong.

Likewise, given the [vague] way this executive order is written, Bidens new secretary of commerce could define the ban to be effectively meaningless, he said.

In any case, Biden may not be in a rush to reverse Trumps executive orders targeting China because his top priority will be controlling the coronavirus pandemic, some analysts said. South China Morning Post

Continue reading here:

China-US tech war: Trump's ban on Alipay and WeChat Pay another problem for Biden to deal with - The Star Online

Bitcoin (BTC USD) Latest News, Quote: Prices Sink With XRP, Ether – Bloomberg

  1. Bitcoin (BTC USD) Latest News, Quote: Prices Sink With XRP, Ether  Bloomberg
  2. Bitcoin falls as record-breaking rally loses steam  CNBC
  3. JPMorgan Predicts Bitcoin Price Could Rise Over $146,000 in Long Term - CoinDesk  CoinDesk
  4. Bitcoin plummets 17% for its biggest drop since March as its record-shattering rally stumbles  Business Insider
  5. Four factors that are pushing investors into buying bitcoins  Mint
  6. View Full Coverage on Google News

See the original post:
Bitcoin (BTC USD) Latest News, Quote: Prices Sink With XRP, Ether - Bloomberg

Bitcoin is breaking records because bigger investors are buying it now, says PwC – CNBC

SINGAPORE Bitcoin's record-smashing rally seen in recent weeks was partly driven by the entry of more big, institutional investors into the market, according to PwC's global crypto leader Henri Arslanian.

The digital currency surged over $30,000 for the first time on Saturday and had advanced more than 300% in 2020, Reuters reported. On Monday afternoon in Asia, Bitcoin traded at around $32,668.93, according to CoinDesk.

The cryptocurrency has been around for a little over a decade, but it only began to rise in popularity among mainstream institutional investors last year. Crypto bulls have said that bitcoin is seen as a hedge against inflation, similar to gold.

"When you look at this bitcoin rally that we have been seeing in the last couple of weeks and months, really, there's two big elements driving it. One is the continuous entry of institutional players," Arslanian said Monday on CNBC's "Street Signs Asia."

Bitcoin's price resurgence last year was in part fueled by well-known Wall Street billionaires publicly backing the cryptocurrency. Analysts said their endorsement gave confidence to otherwise skeptical, mainstream investors. Investors such as Paul Tudor JonesandStanley Druckenmillerhave both put money in bitcoin and pointed out its potential as an inflation hedge.

studioEAST | Getty Images

Large financial companies likePayPaland Fidelity have also made moves in the cryptocurrency while the likes ofSquareandMicroStrategyhave used their own balance sheets to buy bitcoin.

Arslanian said he expects that trend to continue over the coming months, pointing out that there are various instruments now that allow institutional players to get exposed to bitcoin. "But also there's a lot of regulated players as well. This was not the case a couple of years ago," he said.

A second development driving the current bitcoin rally is retail investors and their fear of missing out, according to Arslanian. He said a lot more people today have accounts on crypto exchanges than before as buying cryptocurrencies is easier now than before.

"With these two big elements driving it, there's a lot of momentum going on in the space. There's a lot of optimism in the crypto markets as well," he said.

Bitcoin's recent performance is reminiscent of its frenzied rally to nearly $20,000 in 2017, which was followed by a sharp pullback in 2018, wiping out billions of dollars in the market capitalization of major cryptocurrencies. But crypto fans say the current rally is different as it is driven by institutional buying rather than retail speculation.

For his part, Arslanian said one big difference between this rally and the one seen in 2017 is clarity in regulations, which was scarce back then. Today, he said, most regulators around the world have people working on crypto internally. Many of the large financial centers have "pretty good regulatory clarity on crypto markets and that is giving comfort, not only to institutional investors but also retail investors as well coming in the market," he said.

While Arslanian declined to put a price target on bitcoin for this year, he said the current momentum remains optimistic. "More than the price of bitcoin, I'm watching the number of new institutional players coming in, which I think have an outsized impact on the markets," he added.

CNBC's Ryan Browne contributed to this report.

Go here to see the original:
Bitcoin is breaking records because bigger investors are buying it now, says PwC - CNBC

Why Ive Changed My Mind on Bitcoin – Yahoo Finance

There comes a point in every investors journey when he must admit he is wrong about something.In my case, I was wrong about bitcoin and whether it would ever be considered a legitimate asset class.This realization dawned on me in the last month when the price of bitcoin passed its December 2017 highs of $20,000. My prior belief was that bitcoin wouldnt surpass these highs for many years, if at all.I didnt think that bitcoin was going to zero, but I also didnt think it would eclipse its December 2017 peak anytime soon.

Nick Maggiulli is chief operating officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of the Of Dollars and Data financial blog, where a version of this article first appeared.

Now that it has surpassed that peak by over 50%, I have come to realize that bitcoin isnt theone-trick ponyI thought it was. As Paulo Coelho wrote inThe Alchemist:

Well, here we are again. Bitcoin is on another spectacular bull run and investors are taking notice.Now that bitcoin has survived (and thrived) beyond its 2017 peak, many investors who used to see it as a joke are now realizing it isnt one.I am one of them.

I have changed my tune on bitcoin, but not because of many of the arguments put forth by bitcoin bulls.For example, bitcoin bulls have claimed that bitcoin would be used as a currency, that the U.S. dollar would plummet in value and thatthe halvingin May 2020 would increase bitcoins price.They were wrong on all counts, yet bitcoins price has still gone up.

What the bitcoin bullswereright about was increased adoption and the ability of many bitcoin owners to hold (HODL) even as prices rose dramatically.These two effects (more demand from buyers and reduced supply from sellers) have helped to boost bitcoins price and cement it as a legitimate asset class within the investment community.As a result, bitcoin has become a form of digital gold.You may not agree with this assessment, but if you still think bitcoin is going to zero you should reconsider your assumptions.

Story continues

Related: SkyBridge's Bitcoin Cache Rises to $310M as New Fund Launches

The problem with arguing that bitcoin is going to zero is there are too many investors who are willing to buy it at a price far above $0.I remember speaking to many non-crypto investorsbeforethe recent run-up in price who said they wouldnt buy bitcoin at $10,000, but if it dropped to $1,000-$2,000 they would surely jump in.

Well, guess what?Now that the current price is above $30,000, some of those investors have likelyincreasedthe limit at which they would consider buying bitcoin.Instead of buying at $1,000 these same investors may be happy to jump in closer to $10,000.And every time the price goes up in the future, these mental buy limits go up as well, increasing the likelihood of bitcoins future survival.

But Nick, bitcoin doesnt have any intrinsic value!Well, guess what?Neither does gold,which has a $10 trillion market capitalization!So if you want to argue against bitcoin on intrinsic value terms, then you have to argue against gold, too. Because both the price of gold and the price of bitcoin are based around one thing and one thing alone belief, the belief that these assets will have value in the future.

See also: Pondering Durian Why >15% of My Net Worth Is in Bitcoin

And right now the collective belief in bitcoin is increasing.The cult is becoming areligion.Dont just take my word for it though.There are plenty of articles (seehere,here andhere) that discuss this increased adoption within the investment community. And if this trend continues (as it probably will), then we are evenlesslikely to see a future without bitcoin.

Now that bitcoin is here to stay, you might be wondering how it will behave in the future.Will increased adoption lead to higher prices?I have no idea!What I do know is bitcoin is a speculative asset class. Therefore, we should look at other speculative asset classes as a guide for how bitcoin might behave.And I believe there is no better speculative asset to use for this comparison than the early years of gold as an investment.

While gold has been around for millennia as a form of money, it wasnt untilAugust 1974 in the U.S.that it was an investable asset class.And in the six years following its reintroduction to the investment community (1974-1980), gold tripled in value in real terms (i.e., the yellow line below):

But since that tripling, it hasnt performed all that well.Though bitcoin is unlikely to follow a similar path to gold, it is likely to exhibit similarbehavior. This means bitcoin will continue to have huge run-ups in price followed by violent crashes that may last years (and possibly decades) in the future.We have already seen this kind of behavior from bitcoin before and I am quite confident we will see it again.

The difference between bitcoin and gold is that bitcoin is still gaining adoption among investors.

The difference between bitcoin and gold is that bitcoin is still gaining adoption among investors. Will that continue at its current pace into the future?Who knows?However, if bitcoins market capitalization were to match that of gold, it would be worth over $500,000 a coin. This is why some investors are so bullish on bitcoin.

However, there are still some reasons to be bearish.The main one is that bitcoin is associated with some of the most speculative investment activity out there.This is most apparent when comparing its price movement to the price movement of another speculative cryptocurrency dogecoin.Though you may not have heard of dogecoin, it is an alternative crypto currency (altcoin) that is kind ofan inside joke on the internet.

And since dogecoins price is aclearindicator of speculative behavior, if we look at the correlation between dogecoin and bitcoin we can get a better feel for how much speculation might be occurring in bitcoin at any point in time:

As you can see, over the last three years the correlation between dogecoin and bitcoin has been quite high, with the most recent correlation reading around 0.8.

But if we compare dogecoin to gold, we see that the correlation between their prices tends to center around 0:

This is just more evidence that bitcoin is associated with speculative activity and will continue to behave like a speculative asset in the future.

Though I have changed my mind on bitcoin, I havent necessarily changed my view on how one should invest in it. I believe the only prudent way to invest in this asset class without any long-term negative repercussions is to holdno more than2% of your portfolio in it. I wouldnt recommend this approach for everyone, but it may work for some people.By limiting your exposure to 2% of your portfolio youre unlikely to get rich, but youre unlikely to go bankrupt either.

Why 2%?This was the allocation I gotwhen I worked out the optimal portfolioback in October 2017.Anything more than 2% adds too much risk (per unit return) to your portfolio and anything less than 2% reduces your returns (per unit risk) too much.Of course, the optimal portfolio is the best solution for the past, not the future.Either way, I dont see the harm in a 2% allocation, but please do your own research first.

See also: Ajit Tripathi Why Im Long Crypto, Short DLT

The biggest risk I see to owning bitcoin going forward isnt a price crash (which is inevitable), but the possibility of a government ban on ownership.This might seem outlandish but in April 1933 the U.S. governmentbanned the ownership of gold bullion/coinagefor all U.S. citizens.The reasons for that ban are very different from a bitcoin ban that could happen today, but withthe recent Securities and Exchange Commission complaint against Ripple I wouldnt rule it out completely.

Lastly, I might be wrong on many of the things I have stated today or in the past.But I dont blog so that I can be right. I do it so I can learn more about investing and get closer to the truth.As economist John Maynard Keynes (or Paul Samuelson)supposedly said:

When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?

See original here:
Why Ive Changed My Mind on Bitcoin - Yahoo Finance

Bitcoin prices could really go haywire if this happens in 2021 – Yahoo Finance

TipRanks

Weve turned a new page on the calendar, Old Man 20 is out the door, and theres a feeling 21 is gonna be a good year and so far, so good. The markets closed out 2020 with modest session gains to cap off larger annual gains. The S&P 500 rose 16% during the corona crisis year, while the NASDAQ, with its heavy tech representation, showed an impressive annual gain of nearly 43%. The advent of two viable COVID vaccines is fueling a surge in general optimism.Wall Streets top analysts have been casting their eye at the equity markets, finding those gems that investors should give serious consideration in this new year. These are analysts with 5-star ratings from TipRanks database, and they are pointing out the stocks with Strong Buy ratings in short, this is where investors can expect to find share growth over the next 12 months. We are talking returns of at least 70% over the next 12 months, according to the analysts. ElectraMeccanica Vehicles (SOLO)Electric vehicles, EVs, are growing more popular as consumers look for alternatives to the traditional internal combustion gasoline engine. While EVs simply move the source of combustion from under the hood to the electric power plant, they do offer real advantages for drivers: they offer greater acceleration, more torque, and they are more energy efficient, converting up to 60% of their battery energy into forward motion. These advantages, as EV technology improves, are starting to outweigh the drawbacks of shorter range and expensive battery packs.ElectraMeccanica, a small-cap manufacturer from British Columbia, is the designer and marketer of the Solo, a single-seat, three-wheel EV built for the urban commuter market. Technically, the Solo is classed as an electric motorcycle but it is fully enclosed, with a door on either side, features a trunk, air conditioning, and a Bluetooth connection, and travels up to 100 miles on a single charge at speeds up to 80 miles per hour. The recharging time is low, less than 3 hours, and the vehicle is priced at less than $20,000.Starting in Q3 2020, the company delivered its first shipment of vehicles to the US, and expanded into six additional US urban markets, including San Diego, CA and Scottsdale and Glendale, AZ. ElectraMeccanica also opened four new storefronts in the US 2 in Los Angeles, one in Scottsdale, and one in Portland, OR. In addition, the company has begun design and marketing work a fleet version of the Solo, to target the commercial fleet and car rental markets starting in the first half of this year.Craig Irwin, 5-star analyst with Roth Capital, is impressed by SOLOs possible applications to the fleet market. He writes of this opening, We believe the pandemic is a tailwind for fast food chains exploring better delivery options. Chains look to avoid third party delivery costs and balance brand identity implications of operator- vs. company-owned vehicles. The SOLO's 100-mile range, low operating cost, and std telematics make the vehicle a good fit, in our view, particularly when location data can be integrated into a chain's kitchen software. We would not be surprised if SOLO made a couple announcements with major chains after customers validate plans.Irwin puts a Buy rating on SOLO, supported by his $12.25 price target which implies a 98% upside potential for the stock in 2021. (To watch Irwins track record, click here)Speculative tech is popular on Wall Street, and ElectraMeccanica fits that bill nicely. The company has 3 recent reviews, and all are Buys, making the analyst consensus a unanimous Strong Buy. Shares are priced at $6.19 and have an average target of $9.58, making the one-year upside 55%. (See SOLO stock analysis on TipRanks)Nautilus Group (NLS)Based in Washington State, this fitness equipment manufacturer has seen a massive stock gain in 2020, as its shares rocketed by more than 900% over the course of the year, even accounting for recent dips in the stock value. Nautilus gained as the social lockdown policies took hold and gyms were shuttered in the name of stopping or slowing the spread of COVID-19. The company, which owns major home fitness brands like Bowflex, Schwinn, and the eponymous Nautilus, offered home-bound fitness buffs the equipment needed to stay in shape.The share appreciation accelerated in 2H20, after the companys revenues showed a recovery from Q1 losses due to the corona recession. In the second quarter, the top line hit $114 million, up 22% sequentially; in Q3, revenues reached $155, for a 35% sequential gain and a massive 151% year-over-year gain. Earnings were just as strong, with the Q3 $1.04 EPS profit beating coming in far above the year-ago quarters 30-cent loss.Watching this stock for Lake Street Capital is 5-star analyst Mark Smith, who is bullish on this stock. Smith is especially cognizant of the recent dip in share price, noting that the stock is now off its peak which makes it attractive to investors. Nautilus reported blowout results for 3Q:20 with strength across its portfolio We think the company has orders and backlog to drive high sales and earnings for the next several quarters and think we have seen a fundamental shift in consumers' exercise-at-home behavior. We would view the recent pull back as a buying opportunity, Smith opined.Smiths $40 price target supports his Buy rating, and indicates a robust 120% one-year upside potential. (To watch Smiths track record, click here)The unanimous Strong Buy consensus rating shows that Wall Street agrees with Smith on Nautilus potential. The stock has 4 recent reviews, and all are to Buy. Shares closed out 2020 with a price of $18.14, and the average target of $30.25 suggests the stock has room for ~67% upside growth in 2021. (See NLS stock analysis on TipRanks)KAR Auction Services (KAR)Last but not least is KAR Auction Services, a car auctioning company, which operates online and physical marketplaces to connect buyers and sellers. KAR sells to both business buyers and individual consumers, offering vehicles for a variety of uses: commercial fleets, private travel, even the second-had parts market. In 2019, the last year for which full-year numbers are available, KAR sold 3.7 million vehicles for $2.8 billion in total auction revenue.The ongoing corona crisis, with its social lockdown policies, put a damper on car travel and reduced demand for used vehicles across market segments. KAR shares slipped 13% in 2020, in a year of volatile trading. In the recent 3Q20 report, the company showed revenue of $593.6 million, down over 15% year-over-year. Third quarter earnings, however, at 23 cents per share profit, were down less, 11% yoy, and showed a strong sequential recovery from the Q2 EPS loss of 25 cents.As the new vaccines promise an end to the COVID pandemic later this year, and the lifting of lockdown and local travel restrictions, the mid- to long-term prospects for the second-hand car market and for KAR Auctions are brightening, according to Truist analyst Stephanie Benjamin.The 5-star analyst noted, Our estimates now assume that the volume recovery occurs in 2021 vs. 4Q20 under our previous estimates Overall, we believe the 3Q results reflect that KAR is well executing on the initiatives within its control, specifically improving its cost structure and transforming to a pure digital auction model.Looking further ahead, she adds, delinquencies and defaults for auto loans and leases have increased and we believe will serve as a meaningful volume tailwind in 2021 as repo activity resumes. Additionally, repo vehicles generally require ancillary services which should yield higher RPU. This supply influx should also help moderate the used pricing environment and drive dealers to fill up their lots, which remain at three-year lows from an inventory standpoint.In line with these comments, Benjamin sets a $32 price target, implying a high 71% one-year upside potential to the stock, and rates KAR as a Buy. (To watch Benjamins track record, click here)Wall Street generally is willing to speculate on KARs future, as indicated by the recent reviews, which split 5 to 1 Buy to Hold, and make the analyst consensus view a Strong Buy. KAR is selling for $18.61, and its $24.60 average price target suggests it has room to grow 32% from that level. (See KAR stock analysis on TipRanks)To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks equity insights.Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

Read the original here:
Bitcoin prices could really go haywire if this happens in 2021 - Yahoo Finance

Stocks and bitcoin are massive bubbles, long-time bear David Rosenberg warns – CNBC

Long-time market bear David Rosenberg is warning investors the stock market and bitcoin are massive bubbles.

The economist and strategist cites crowded trades amid a struggling economic backdrop for his concerns.

"Based on our [stock market] valuation work, we are anywhere from 20% to 30% overvalued based on a whole bunch of different metrics," the Rosenberg Research president told CNBC's "Trading Nation" last week.

Rosenberg, who served as Merrill Lynch's top North American economist from 2002 to 2009, is known for his pessimism over the past several years. In 2019, he told investors a recession was virtually unavoidable.

He toned down his market negativity last Spring on "Trading Nation" asserting he didn't hate stocks because the Federal Reserve's unprecedented support could last for years. The key right now, according to Rosenberg, is to be vigilant.

"What's holding the boot together is basically zero interest rates. As long as rates remain where they are, unless we have a real dramatic pullback in economic activity, this bubble that we're in is probably not going to burst any time soon," he said. "We have to understand though we are investing in a bubble."

The major indexes are starting 2021 in record territory. The S&P 500 and Dow closed at all-time highs on Thursday, surging 16.3% and 7.3%, respectively, over the past year. The tech heavy Nasdaq missed a new record high by a hair, but had its best year since 2009 up almost 44%.

Rosenberg is also avoiding bitcoin, which also just completed a monster run. It crossed $30,000 for the first time over the weekend and closed 2020 at record highs. The cryptocurrency jumped 305% this year, for its best annual performance since 2017.

"The parabolic move in bitcoin in such a short time period, I would say for any security, is highly abnormal," said Rosenberg, who considers it the biggest market bubble right now.

For the next 12 months, Rosenberg plans to avoid last year's winners. His top strategy include laggards utilities and energy.

"What I want to do actually in the context of this bubbly stock market is invest in the areas that are not bubbly and that have a lot of catch-up potential," he said. "They do exist."

But there is an exception: Gold, which just completed its best year in a decade. Rosenberg views it as a safe haven asset.

"It has 1/5 of the volatility that bitcoin does," Rosenberg said. "I've been very bullish on gold, and I remain bullish on gold."

The precious metal ended the year at $1,895.10 an ounce, a fraction of a percent below all-time highs.

Disclosure: David Rosenberg is in the process of buying SPX puts. He owns energy and pipelines (utilities) and gold.

Disclaimer

See the original post here:
Stocks and bitcoin are massive bubbles, long-time bear David Rosenberg warns - CNBC

2020 was great for bitcoin but experts are wary of a correction – Mint

Bitcoin has ended 2020 with a bang. Extending its recent run-away rally, the digital currency breached $33,000 for the first time ever on Friday. Unlike in the past, bitcoin has now caught the fancy of institutional investors and is gaining acceptance as a futuristic store of value. Global fund manager survey by BofA Securities showed long bitcoin" was the third most crowded trade in December, beating gold and corporate bonds.

Bitcoin is now being perceived as an inflation-hedge and an asset with a potential to give mouth-watering returns quickly, analysts said. Bitcoin has almost quadrupled in value this year, outperforming safe havens gold and the US dollar. Foreign research house Jefferies has, for the first time, included bitcoins in its asset allocation for pension funds. It has cut allocation to gold by 5% in favour of bitcoin.

However, as they say, one mans food is anothers poison. Legendary investor Warren Buffett has referred to bitcoin as rat poison squared" and has said he does not see crypto currencies as an investment-worthy asset class.

Ultra cheap money pumped in by global central banks has found its way into many assets, including bitcoin. We are in a scenario where safe-havens and riskier assets are all rallying simultaneously, which is a theoretical contradiction. So much so that even negative-yield bonds are garnering inflows. It has become like hunting with the hounds and running with the hare," said Hitesh Jain, vice president, research, Yes Securities Ltd.

View Full Image

Large investors who are put off by a weak dollar are flocking towards bitcoin, despite it lacking inherent fundamentals. Unlike gold, bitcoin is extremely volatile. I dont think bitcoin can replace gold as an inflation hedge," he said.

Some analysts in the bearish camp also drew parallels between the current bitcoin rally with that of 2017. They said a crypto rally, which sees allocation shift from safer to riskier assets, is often followed by a deep correction. In 2017, bitcoin had rallied from the low of around $790 to a peak of $19,041 in December. Interestingly, in a December 2017 BofA survey, bitcoin topped the list of most crowded trades. In 2018, it crashed by 74%.

Easy liquidity has helped bitcoin with an easier route to rally. However, the current rally looks stretched and ripe for a fall," said Sahil Kapoor, chief market strategist, Edelweiss Securities Ltd.

Another indicator that is flashing red is the bitcoin-gold ratio, which has risen from the levels of 1.1 to 15 in recent months. Since both gold and bitcoin have finite supply, the bitcoin-gold ratio gives us a sense about which of the two is overvalued. Data shows that the former is poised for a correction," said Sugandha Sachdeva, vice-president, metals, energy and currency research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Subscribe to Mint Newsletters

* Enter a valid email

* Thank you for subscribing to our newsletter.

See the rest here:
2020 was great for bitcoin but experts are wary of a correction - Mint