Bitcoins (BTC) risk-return is a different beast compared to even the darling of the stock market of the 2000s, Amazon.

That was the conclusion drawn by one of the cryptocurrency industrys best-known analysts and the creator of a uniquely accurate Bitcoin price model.

Uploading a chart showing BTC risk-return versus Amazon stocks, U.S. bonds, gold and the S&P 500 on Jan. 24, PlanB showed Bitcoin behaved completely differently as an investment.

Amazons significant losses in the year 2000, combined with its revered recovery ever since still keeps it far below Bitcoins risk-reward ratio.

Bitcoin is a different beast! PlanB summarized, describing Amazons position on the chart as much closer to normal.

Amazons share price appeared to shake off revelations involving Saudi Arabia allegedly hacking CEO Jeff Bezos this week. Both $AMZN and BTC nonetheless fell over the past seven days, with the latter potentially reacting to uncertainty stemming from China.

Bitcoin risk-return vs. major investments. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

The impressive contrast comes days after Cointelegraph reported on Bitcoins risk-adjusted returns outperforming every major investment offering based on a four-year investment.

Then, PlanB appeared to hint that four-year periods the time between each reduction in the new Bitcoin supply could continue to boost performance.

Further, cryptographer Nick Szabo added, the susceptibility of traditional instruments to react to government and central bank meddling in currency markets meant Bitcoin was a natural fit for long-term, or low-time preference, investors.

PlanBs price model, stock-to-flow, has correctly called much of Bitcoins historical behavior and continues to forecast a level of $100,000 for BTC/USD in 2021.

At current levels, markets continue to conform to stock-to-flow, at $8,300 trading just below its suggested range. Before the next halving in May, $8,300 is, in fact, the average price the model says Bitcoin will trade at before moving significantly higher.

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Bitcoin Risk-Return a Different Beast Compared to Amazon: Analyst - Cointelegraph

dpa/picture alliance via Getty Images

How many credit cards do you have? If youre like the average American, you carry four in your wallet.

Chances are your credit cards are from different banks. But if you dumped out your wallet on the table and laid all your cards side by side, youd notice something odd.

While all the cards are from different banksand they all have their own special privileges, prestigious names, and color schemesmost have one thing in common:

Visaor MasterCardstamped on the bottom right.

Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) Created a Global Currency

It hardly matters what bank you use. At the end of the day, your card likely needs Visa or Mastercards payment network to function.

Over 80 million stores accept Visa or Mastercard. With one of their cards in your wallet, you can buy stuff anywhere in the world.

Visa and Mastercard have effectively created a universally accepted moneya global currency. $13trillionflowed through their networks last year. Thats 24X more than Bitcoin processed in 2019, according to CCN.

They make money by taking a small cut of each transaction, like a tollbooth on a highway. Both Visa and Mastercard are minting record profits, and their stocks have handed investors tremendous gains:

Visa and Mastercard

Heres why this is important for you.

Banks Stranglehold on Money Is Weakening

For many decades, weve had to deal with banks to move money. If you wanted to cash your paycheck, wire money, or get a credit card, you often had to talk to a banker.

These days, you can do all these things without ever stepping foot inside a bank. You can even get a mortgage without ever talking to a human banker!

Sending money no longer means writing a check and waiting three days for it to clear. Now you can send and receive money instantly withPayPals (PYPL)Venmo.

Roughly 50 million Americans use Venmo every month. You can even pay your taxes with PayPal.

Have you ever usedSquares (SQ)little white box that swipes credit cards? It plugs into your smartphone to turn it into a cash register. Over two million small businesses use it to accept cards instead of cash.

And getting a credit card no longer requires filling out piles of paperwork and answering a bankers questions. Smartphone giantApple (AAPL)made a splash when it debuted its shiny new titanium credit card last August.

These disruptors will end banks as we know them. Nobody cares if banks have fancy lobbies with marble floors these days. Most Americans just want a fast and convenient way to manage their money.

I havent stepped foot in a bank in years. And foot traffic into branches has fallen close to 50% in the past decade.

Many folks assume old money companies like Visa and Mastercard are in trouble too. These folks are wrong.

Visa and Mastercard Are Untouchable Stocks

What few people realize isall the "money disruptors I just mentioned are plugged into Visa and Mastercards networks.

Apple designed its titanium card to resemble its sleek products. But did you know it runs on Mastercards network? And credit cards from PayPal, Square, and Stripe all have Visa or Mastercard logos.

These disruptors arent ripping out the pipes of our financial system and trying to cut out Visa and Mastercard. Instead, theyre partnering with them, sending even more money flowing through their networks.

Remember, each time you pay with a card, Visa and Mastercard collect a small fee. In fact, even when you pay with your phone, these giants make money.

Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Amazon Pay, are simply apps built on Visa and Mastercard networks!

Nobody Can Touch These Untouchable Stocks

How we move money around and pay for things has changed for good. Yet these changes have only cemented Visa and Mastercards dominance.

Theyve built payment networks nobody can match. More than 30,000 banks use their credit cards. There are 3.4 billion Visa cards alone in circulation!

And now partnerships with PayPal, Square, and others are injecting a new wave of growth into Visa and Mastercard. Visas sales shot up 11.5% last year to a record $22 billion. And Mastercards revenue jumped 20% to $14.5 billion.

They Are Two of the Most Consistently Impressive Businesses Ive Ever Analyzed

Visas profit margins are 5X better than the average US stock. It turns 52 cents on every dollar into pure profit. Mastercards profit margins are 3X better than the average S&P 500 company. If youre investing for the long haul, you could do a lot worse than owning these two undisruptible tollbooth stocks.

Get my report"The Great Disruptors:3 Breakthrough Stocks Set to Double Your Money".These stocks will hand you 100% gains as they disrupt whole industries.Get your free copy here.

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The Invisible Global Currency Thats 24 Times Bigger Than Bitcoin - Forbes

The Bitcoin price started pumping from the $8,300 area on January 26 three days after the Chinese city of Wuhan, which is believed to be the epicenter of the new coronavirus epidemic, was put underquarantine.

Image via CoinMarketCap

By now, the BTC price has reached the $9,345 level. However, an article by The Independent claims that this mightnot be the truecause of the BTC rally.

The Bitcoin price took off several times last year, when the US initiated a tariff war with China andthen nearly provoked WW3 with Iran. A price growth was noticed during the impeachment trial of Donald Trump, when the Australian forests caught fire and, finally, following the coronavirus breakout in China recently. The virus has also been negatively impacting both the US and Chinese stock markets, however, Bitcoin remains healthy and continues togrow.

Many cryptocurrency experts believe that Bitcoin starts appreciating when the global economy faces turmoil or whenother large-scale problems occur.

Other cryptocurrencies, such as ETH, XRP or TRX, have also been surging in price. Simon Peters from eToro says:

"Prices jumped to near three-month highs following turbulence on traditional stock markets, reinforcing cryptocurrency's growing position as a possible safe haven investment."

However, the article from The Independent states:

Despite this, there is little research to actually support the theory that such events are related to bitcoin's fortunes. Market movements have instead been connected to developments within the cryptocurrency industry, such as favourable regulation being introduced, or rumours that a country is developing its own cryptocurrency.

The article has it that cryptocurrency quotes are often manipulated by crypto whales and by insider trading, citing cryptocurrency author David Gerard.

Must Read

Earlier today, Tron CEO Justin Sun tweeted that the Tron team are sending medical supplies to Wuhan to support the coronavirus victims. In the video Sun is wearing a mask.

Image via Twitter

Somein the community believe this is yet another excuse for Sun to promote Tron.

Image via Twitter

Meanwhile, the TRX price is up 9.99 percent, thougha short while ago the coin showed an 11-percent rise.

Image via CoinMarketCap

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Bitcoin (BTC) Predicted by Henry Ford 100 Years Ago - U.Today

After an 11% drop last week, Bitcoin (BTC) started to mount an extremely strong recovery on Sunday and Monday. Just earlier today, the cryptocurrency reached a local high of $9,150, trading 5% higher on the day.

Per Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs executive, this move has allowed BTC to break out of an inverse head and shoulders formation (with a very weak right shoulder, which makes it often more powerful.

This move has also notably brought Bitcoin above the key 200-day simple moving average. While the price has yet to close above this key technical level, sitting around $9,000, this specific moving average has long been seen as analysts as an indicator of an assets long-term directionality.

With these bullish factors in mind, where do analysts say the leading cryptocurrency can go next?

Unsurprisingly, this latest boost higher has analysts convinced that the market is ready to see even more gains.

Per previous reports from NewsBTC, eerily accurate trader Filb Filb in a recent edition of hisDecentrader newsletter wrote:

Overall, Bitcoin is exactly where [I] anticipated; slowly grinding up towards previous resistance Im very much of the opinion that Bitcoin will reach to at least $12,500 level before the halving.

As to why $12,500 makes sense, he noted that that is the top target for a bullish inverse head and shoulders chart that is forming on a medium-term basis for Bitcoin.

This belief that the cryptocurrency will soon head over $10,000 has been echoed by other prominent traders and commentators.

Trader and industry advisor Josh Rager noted that BTCs current monthly candle is looking good, adding that if January can close above $9,250, the price would likely look to push up over $10,000 to re-test the point of control of the June to September 2019 price action.

While there is the above bullish sentiment, there are some signs that the cryptocurrency may soon see a price pullback, one that may bring it back into the $8,000s for the time being.

The below trader noted that the four-hour chart of BTC is printing a number of signs that bears may soon assert control over the market: 1) the price of Bitcoin has not yet passed the previous high set on the 18th, the Klinger trend indicator is looking to roll over to bearish, the BitMEX funding rate is reaching extreme levels that imply impending reversal, and the RSI has started to roll over as well.

It currently isnt clear whether or not there remain any bearish on Bitcoin from a medium-term perspective after this surge to $9,000. But should there be some, NewsBTC will let you know as soon as possible.

Continue reading here:
Bitcoin in Midst of Powerful Breakout: How Far Will Prices Go Past $10,000? - newsBTC

The crypto community is divided on whether or not the Bitcoin halving is already priced in. However, one thing is for sure: the topic is getting a lot of attention.

Norwegian cryptocurrency intelligence company Arcane Research says Google searches for the term Bitcoin halving have spiked in the last 12 months. While the exact number of queries is not documented, the firm says its research has revealed the level of interest over time for the phrase, using data from Google Trends.

In January of 2019, searches for the term flashed readings of below 20. A year later, the term registered an interest level of 100, indicating peak popularity. The conclusion from Arcane Research is that Bitcoins upcoming halving is gaining more traction among the crypto curious.

The last time the term spiked in popularity was back in 2016, when the king of cryptocurrency halved for the second time. In that year, Bitcoins price grew by nearly 125%.

In May 2020, Bitcoin rewards will be halved from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC per block. Past halving events have foreshadowed a bull market. Today, not all crypto enthusiasts are convinced that the next bull market will emerge after the third halving. Arcane Research notes,

Independent of the conclusion, there is now a clear indication that awareness of the concept has spread to new people.

Featured Image: Shutterstock/Alberto Andrei Rosu

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Hype Over Bitcoin (BTC) Halving Accelerating, Reports Cryptocurrency Analysis Firm Arcane Research - The Daily Hodl

INDIA - 2020/01/23: In this photo illustration a Cryptocurrency Bitcoin logo seen displayed on a ... [+] smartphone. (Photo Illustration by Avishek Das/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Fortunes are changing in cryptocurrency markets. A rally that began three weeks ago lost steam last week.

By Saturday evening, Bitcoin was down 6.43%, ETH was down 7.38%, XRP was down 8.44%, and LTC dropped 11.20%. Bitcoin slid back towards the key $8,000-mark.

The retreat was board with only 18 out of the top 100 cryptocurrencies advancing and 82 dropping.

That's a significant change from the previous when 90 cryptocurrencies advanced out of the top 100.

And it came as the spread of coronavirus unsettled financial markets.

That should have come as a surprise to digital asset experts. Bitcoin has emerged as a safe-haven asset in times of global uncertainties, according to some studies. And should have been rallying rather than retreating last week.

koyfin_20200126_081340494

Is Bitcoin's pull-back just the pause of the rally or something more serious?

Christopher Brookins, Founder and CIO at Valiendero Digital Assets, thinks that Bitcoin is re-affirming his previous position that the rally takes a "breather."

"At the time of writing, the Hurst Exponent is still recovering from oversold levels and its recent "breather," with a value of 0.52, he says. The resumption in upward trajectory after its brief consolidation and value still being far from overbought territory bodes well for price in the near to mid-term."

Brookins' estimates apply the Hurst exponent (H) model, which is rooted in mathematics founded by Benoit Mandelbrot, to determine if a financial market is trending or not.

Screen Shot 2020-01-25 at 7.40.21 PM

He's watching the $8400 (short-Kumo Cloud) and $8600 (long-Kumo Cloud), but he remains bullish in the digital currency, in the face of the upcoming halving.

And he sticks in his previous prediction that ETH price increases are unlikely to last for a sustained period, and that will lag behind BTC.

"As stated prior, given the dramatic reversal in Hurst values to overbought, ETH price increases are unlikely to last for a sustained period in 2020," he says. "Furthermore, given the divergence between ETH and BTC Hurst values, we expect BTC to begin demonstrably outperforming ETH over the coming weeks and months."

Screen Shot 2020-01-25 at 7.52.55 PM

He also sticks with his prediction that LTC price increases are unlikely to last for a sustained period. They will also lag behind BTC.

"As stated prior, given the dramatic reversal in Hurst values to overbought, LTC price increases are unlikely to last for a sustained period in 2020," he adds. "Furthermore, given the divergence between LTC and BTC Hurst values, we expect BTC to begin demonstrably outperforming LTC over the coming weeks and months."

Screen Shot 2020-01-25 at 7.58.50 PM

Continued here:
Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, And LTC Rally Fades: What's Next? - Forbes

An interesting poll on Twitter revealed that if Bitcoins price reached $100,000, most people would prefer to sell either all or some of their holdings for fiat. A comparison with another poll, however, shows an exciting consistency with what Bitcoin holders supposedly intend to do.

One of the most important decisions that an investor has to do is to come up with an exit strategy. In other words, they need to have a clear picture in mind as to when to sell their holdings.

Bitcoin is no different. Despite the multitude of specifics that it has compared to traditional assets, its also an investment option as any other its price goes up and down. As such, those who buy it as a means of investment need to come up with a figure at which theyd eventually dispose of their holdings.

Thats precisely what popular cryptocurrency commentator Chris Dunn aims to understand with his latest Twitter poll.

In a straightforward question, Dunn asks Bitcoin holders what they would do if BTCs price reaches $100,000. Over 1,700 people took part in the survey, where 45% of them answered that they would sell some or all of their BTC for fiat.

Another major part of the voters answered that they would sell their Bitcoin for physical assets. In other words, $100,000 seems like a number that a lot of people consider as a price target to dispose of their BTC holdings, at least partially.

Going beyond this, however, the poll also reveals a very interesting similarity when compared to a similar survey from not so long ago. In late 2019, Cryptopotato reported on a similar poll carried out by Binance Life, which showed that 23% of the people dont intend to sell their Bitcoin holdings at all.

In Dunns poll, 20.8% of people said that they wouldnt be selling their BTC if it reaches $100,000 but instead would HODL everything.

This brings us to the other group of people who buy Bitcoin those who are in it for what it was intended to be a viable, peer-to-peer means of electronic payments. In a scenario where Bitcoin replaces traditional fiat currencies, however far-fetched this might seem right now, one wouldnt need cash as hed be spending his bitcoins instead.

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BTC HODL Target Found? Almost 50% Say They Will Sell If Bitcoin Price Reaches $100,000 - CryptoPotato

Today, markets are green, with most of the top 100 posting gains. At the time of writing Bitcoin is up to $8,962 on the daily. Having peaked 4% to just below $9,150 earlier on in the day.

Bitcoin daily price since Oct 19. (Source: tradingview.com)

Analyst, Mati Greenspan attributes this run of form to US fiscal factors, including the ever-booming stock market. While discounting any notion of the heightening coronavirus pandemic being a factor.

As such, at the present time, Greenspan sees Bitcoin behaving more like a risk asset, rather than a safe haven.

The outbreak of coronavirus began making headlines at the turn of the year. Reports centered around cases of pneumonia-like symptoms from a virus that did not match other known viruses. Symptoms include tiredness, trouble breathing, high temperature, and a sore throat.

Research shows that the coronavirus is similar in structure to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). And much like SARS, its airborne, with touching infected people and objects also thought to transmit the disease.

The onset of the virus has been pinned on the central city of Wuhan, Hubei province, which is approximately 500 miles west of Shanghai.

Location of Wuhan. (Source: google.com)

Scientists believe coronavirus originated in animals, before mutating to the extent that it can survive in a human host. As such, wet markets in Wuhan, which are known for selling exotic animals for food, including bats, have been blamed as the source of the outbreak.

Official figures claim that 4,500 have been infected, and 106 have died. With the virus spreading to at least 16 countries worldwide.

Moreover, health services in China are being stretched to breaking point. With healthcare professionals voicing a lack of manpower and resources in fighting the disease. One video on YouTube shows a doctor collapsing from exhaustion after a busy shift.

But more alarmingly, there are fears that China is underreporting the severity of the outbreak. A chilling leaked video shows a nurse from Wuhan sharing her story of the outbreak.

Her heart-wrenching account criticizes the Chinese government for censoring the story while downplaying the true extent of the crisis.

Im in the area where the coronavirus started. Im here to tell the truth. At this moment, Hubei province, including Wuhan area, even China, 90,000 people have been infected by coronavirus.

All the same, few, including analyst Mati Greenspan, believe Bitcoins upward trend is the result of the worsening coronavirus pandemic.

Following the outbreak, Chinese stock markets posted massive falls. So much so that trading ceased on January, 23rd, with authorities recommending that they resume on the 3rd, February.

But investors did not flee to traditional safe havens, namely gold, and part of the reason why comes down to booming US stocks, which have been immune to fears over the coronavirus so far.

The S&P 500 is down 1.6% today but continues to keep most of Januarys gains.

Monthly performance of S&P 500. (Source: google.com)

As such, with US stocks performing well, on the back of repo money, investors have little motivation to jump to Bitcoin. And it makes sense that Bitcoins 30% gains, since the start of the year, have little to do with the outbreak.

Continued here:
No, Bitcoin Gains Are Not Down To Fears Of Coronavirus Outbreak - newsBTC

Yesterday's positive day along the crypto board has brought the BTC/USD pair to the borderline between a bearish market and a free space where it can grow again in search of new historical highs. The technical setup is critical, although it hides danger if it doesn't materialize, as I explain in the technical section.

The essential notes of the day regarding the crypto ecosystem:

- The World Economic Forum presents a project to promote the adoption of a "robust" framework for the Crypto ecosystem, involving both the private and public sectors.

- A group of Bitcoins Cash miners from both North America and Europe are threatening to promote a hard fork as a lobbying measure against BTC's intention. TOP's CEO Jiang Zhuoer is using 12.5% of the mining rewards to cover infrastructure costs.

The ETH/BTC is currently trading at the price level of 0.01903 while attempting to stay above the EMA50. The excellent performance of the Bitcoin yesterday harmed the price.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at 0.01965, then the second at 0.020 and the third one at 0.022.

Below the current price, the first support level is at 0.0189, then the second at 0.01865 and the third one at 0.018.

The MACD on the daily chart is preparing for a bearish cross above the zero line, a typical consolidation structure. This configuration increases the chances of seeing recent minimum levels below 0.018 again.

The DMI on the daily chart shows bulls in continuous decline, while bears are increasing their strength and are close to disputing the lead to buyers.

The BTC/USD is currently trading at the price level of $8961. The session high is at the price congestion resistance at $9150.

The long term downward trend line is at $9025, while the BTC/USD finds support at the SMA200 which is at the price level of $8903.5

The BTC/USD must close the day above the $9,025 level to confirm the exit from the long term bearish scenario.

A close below the SMA200 would cancel the current bullish breakout scenario.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $9150, then the second at $9550 and the third one at $10500.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $8900, then the second at $8800 and the third one at $8400.

The MACD on the daily chart is near to move upwards again, but it is not confirmed yet. Taking market positions with this structure involves a lot of risks, both upward and downward.

The best option is to wait for the price to dictate the path the price will take in the following weeks.

The DMI on the daily chart shows bulls trying to get back above the ADX line. The most likely pattern indicates that the bulls will fail to cross, and the price will fall.

The ETH/USD is currently trading at the price level of $170.46and is far from reaching the SMA200 as the BTC/USD has done. The long term downward trend line is now at the $185 level.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $176.7, then the second at $180 and the third one at $190.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $170, then the second at $160 and the third one at $155.

The MACD on the daily chart shows a neutral profile, as even though the typical trend of this structure is bearish, the fact that it remains so horizontal shows underlying strength upward.

The DMI on the daily chart shows the bulls moving up again as the bears retreat. The structure confirms the price movement.

The XRP/USD is currently trading at the price level of $0.2326and is the only Top 3 that is already free of the long term bearish trend. The day's high remains at the SMA100 level at $0.2358.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $0.237, then the second at $0.253 and the third one at $0.267.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $0.227, then the second at $0.217 and the third one at $0.20.

The MACD on the daily chart shows a similar structure to that described for the ETH/USD, leaving a neutral situation with a slight downward trend.

The DMI on the daily chart shows the bulls moving upward, while the bears are moving downward. They do not provide any additional information about price behavior.

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Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP: Bitcoin moving on the razor edge - FXStreet

The proposed Bitcoin Cash (BCH) tax levy on miners could now be dead in the water.

Bitcoin.com one of the five mining pools backing the plan has withdrawn its support for the tax plan. The sudden u-turn comes just hours after an anonymous group of miners threatened to launch a hash war in opposition to the tax.

Tuesdays post by BCH mining pool, Bitcoin.com, announced the firms re-thinking of the BCH tax proposal. While the possibility of another chain split remains possible, Bitcoin.com will not continue to support the tax plan.

As it stands now, Bitcoin.com will not go through with supporting any plan unless there is more agreement in the ecosystem such that the risk of a chain split is negligible.

Tuesdays blog post noted the tax plans lack of clarity when it came to deciding where the $6 million in tax collections would go.

We think the lack of clarity in this is one of the main drivers of confusion and contention around the various funding proposals. In venture capital, investors do not find talented technical individuals and hand them money to do something.

The tax was initially levied as a way of funding Bitcoin Cashs development in-house. A 12.5% tax would be collected from BCH block rewards for 6 months until $6 million was raised. These funds would then be distributed to BCH developers for the betterment of the project.

The reason funding discussions are taking place is because proper funding will strengthen the Bitcoin Cash ecosystem, but it cannot come at the expense of compromising the foundational goals of Bitcoin Cash. Bitcoin.com will not risk a chain split or a change to the underlying economics.

The anonymous mining group which threatened the chain split took notice of Bitcoin.coms reversal. The group announced their intention to halt plans for a hardfork, and will continue to support BCH for the time being.

We have taken notice of Bitcoin.com post here. We trust Bitcoin.com are going to be able to convince the rest of the signatories to severely amend the IFP. We are therefore standing down and will not start our competing pool for the time being and will continue to support the BCH pools instead.

The tax proposal triggered vigorous debate among developers, miners and investors in the week since its announcement. Originally declared set in stone by its author, Jiang Zhuoer, the plan attracted criticism on a number of fronts.

But the turning point for Bitcoin.com came when the prospect of another chain split reared its head. Both Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin SV (BSV) spent tens of millions competing for hashrate in 2018.

The previous war also had a disastrous effect on cryptocurrency prices, not least Bitcoin Cash itself. The coin lost 87% of its value in five weeks in November of that year. A repeat of this messy affair is sought by no one in the cryptocurrency space.

This article was edited by Samburaj Das.

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Crypto Killed the Tax Man: Bitcoin Cash Escapes Hash War Over Mining Tax Grenade - CCN.com