Bitcoin's (BTC) price volatility spiked in January and could further increase over the near term because whales have surfaced.

The cryptocurrencys annualized volatility grew roughly eight percentage points in January to a three-month high of 58.2 percent, according to Krakens monthly report.

Volatility rose as bitcoins price rallied from lows near $6,850 on Jan. 3 to a three-month high of $9,570 on Jan. 31. The cryptocurrency closed out January with 30 percent gains, registering its best January performance since 2013.

With the price rally, whales - those buyers of large numbers of coins - seem to have woken from their long slumber. The number of whale addresses ones with balances ranging from 1K BTC to 10k BTC ticked higher in the second half of January, as noted by Krakens researchers.

The number of whale addresses increased from 2,000 to 2,030, marking a transition to an accumulation phase from the wait and see phase seen in the last four months of 2019.

Historically, that transition has injected volatility into the bitcoin market. For instance, whales began accumulating coins in September 2018 and entered wait-and-watch mode in early 2019. Meanwhile, the annualized volatility bottomed out below 20 percent by mid-November and skyrocketed to 100 percent by the end of December.

On similar lines, the spike in price volatility in the second quarter of 2019 was preceded by accumulation by large wallets.

The peculiar behavior could be associated with whales having the resources to affect the market with large orders.

During the accumulation phase, whales eat into market liquidity, Ashish Singhal, co-founder and CEO of CRUXPay and CoinSwitch.co told CoinDesk. That affects the supply-demand ratio and causes volatility to re-enter the market.

Sudden price swings have been observed during whales accumulation period. The cryptocurrencys sharp rise from $4,100 to $5,100, seen on April 2, 2019, was reportedly caused by an order worth about $100 million spread across three exchanges.

Whale action has also led to big price sell-offs in the past; a bitcoin flash crash from $12,600 to $12,100 in less than 15 minutes on July 9, 2019, was triggered by a massive sell order of 6,500 BTC on cryptocurrency exchange Binance.

Singhal added that HODLers addresses with balances ranging from 10 BTC to 100 BTC also influence liquidity and volatility. According to historical data, volatility tends to rise once the 10 to 100 BTC cohort concludes accumulation.

As the growth in the number of addresses with 10 to 100 BTC topped out in November 2018, volatility kicked in and rose sharply from 20 percent to 100 percent. A similar divergence between the two metrics was seen during the four months to mid-July 2019.

Currently, the 10 to 100 BTC cohort is in the accumulation phase, having bottomed out in November. The number of addresses have increased from 135,000 to 137,500 over the past three months.

"Family offices, high-net-worth individuals and proprietary trading accounts have been building BTC positions continuously in the 10 to 100 range. It's a sign of growing adoption of bitcoin as an investment," Gabor Gurbacs, digital asset strategist/director at VanEck/MVIS, told CoinDesk.

If HODLers exit the accumulation phase and whales continue to snap up coins over the coming weeks, the demand supply-imbalance could worsen, resulting in a big jump in volatility.

The problem, however, is that it is difficult to predict how long these periods of accumulation for HODLers will last, said Connor Abendschein, crypto research analyst at Digital Assets Data.

The ongoing accumulation by HODLers could last at least for a few more weeks, with the cryptocurrency set to undergo mining reward halving in three months.

The rewards per block mined on bitcoins blockchain will be reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC at some point in May. Essentially, miners would have fewer bitcoins to sell after May, and that could lead to a supply deficit.

In the past, markets have priced in the impending supply cut by rallying to a new market cycle top (the highest point from the preceding bear market low) in the calendar year of reward halving, but on a date before the event.

Thus, if history were to repeat itself, bitcoin could rise above the June 2019 high of $13,880 before May. With such strong bullish expectations dominating the market sentiment, HODLers are unlikely to end accumulation anytime soon.

However, that does not necessarily mean volatility would crash, as whales are also likely to continue accumulating coins ahead of the reward halving.

If the whales shift to accumulating bitcoin while HODLers are still within their current phase, it would suggest an additional increase in demand for BTC at near the same as the mining supply is scheduled to be cut in half in early May, Abendschein told CoinDesk. This imbalance has the potential to not only see a spike in volatility, but also in price.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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On-Chain Activity Suggests Bitcoin Price Volatility Will Continue, Thanks to 'Whales' - Coindesk

Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, blockchain, decentralization, China's digital yuan, Facebook's librathe U.S. is understandably worried about the dominance of the almighty dollar.

Last year, U.S. president Donald Trump slammed bitcoin as based on "thin air," while his Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin branded bitcoin a "national security threat."

Now, the U.S. has admitted bitcoin and cryptocurrency could undermine the dollar's status as the worlds reserve currencyand it wants to find out exactly how bad for the country, its economy, and security that could be.

The rise of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies has caused some to fear the dominance of the U.S. dollar ... [+] might be under threat.

"Many cryptocurrency enthusiasts predict that either a global cryptocurrency or a national digital currency could undermine the U.S. dollar," the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence wrote in a job listing earlier this month, calling for two researchers to evaluate the impact of the U.S. dollar losing its status as the world reserve currency.

"If either of these scenarios or others come to pass, the U.S. would lose both its status in the world and its global authorities."

The two roles, looking for a postdoc Ph.D. graduate and a U.S. university or government laboratory employee research assistant, are with the U.S. Intelligence Community Postdoctoral Research Fellowship Program through the Department of Energys Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Technology.

Back in 2018, the Department of Energys Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Technology conducted research that found that the creation of new bitcoin, along with smaller cryptocurrencies ethereum, litecoin and monero, used more energy than mineral mining to produce the same market value.

The Department of Energys Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Technology did not respond to a request for comment.

"There are many advantages for U.S. national security to have the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency," the job post, which has a deadline of the February 28, read, pointing to the combat of financial crimes, the prevention of terrorism and the development of weapons of mass destruction, the ability of the U.S. to sanction other countries, cause financial instability in global markets.

"The U.S. maintains international dominance in no small part due to its financial power and authorities."

Meanwhile, calls for the U.S. to begin development of a so-called digital dollar have been growing louder over recent months.

Christopher Giancarlo, former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, recently set up the Digital Dollar Foundation to work on the design and potential framework of a digital dollar.

The bitcoin price,which has failed to return to its all-time highs set in late 2017 despite it climbing around 50% since the beginning of the year, was given a substantial boost in the first half of last year by Facebook's plans for a bitcoin-like rival.

The bitcoin price has soared in recent years, making bitcoin easily the last decade's best ... [+] investment.

Many have long expected governments to eventually try to undermine bitcoin's network to halt its adoptionthough bitcoin's decentralized nature makes it remarkably resilient.

"We can win a major battle [with governments] in the arms race and gain a new territory of freedom for several years," bitcoin's mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto wrote in 2008. "Governments are good at cutting off the heads of a centrally controlled networks like Napster, but pure [peer-to-peer] networks like Gnutella and Tor seem to be holding their own."

Bitcoin now stands with these networks in resistance to government control.

Continued here:
The U.S. Is Very Worried About BitcoinAnd Its Finally Doing Something About It - Forbes

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Bitcoin (BTC) returned into the five-figure zone on Wednesday, reviving the bullish case and putting recent highs near $10,500 back on the radar.

At press time, bitcoin is trading at $10,139, representing a 4.48 percent gain on a 24-hour basis, as per CoinDesks Bitcoin Price Index.

However, the top cryptocurrency by market value was looking weak 24 hours ago, having breached the 2020 rising trendline support at $9,700. The subsequent sell-off, however, ran into bids near $9,600, following which prices charted a near 90-degree rise to $10,290 during the U.S. trading session.

Tuesdays spike marked an end of the pullback from recent highs near $10,500 and validated the positive shift in the long-term sentiment highlighted by the golden crossover the bull cross of the 50- and 200-day averages.

As a result, bigger gains could be in the offing in the short term, more so as the price of gold, a classic safe haven asset, is again rising.

The yellow metal jumped 1.32 percent on Tuesday its biggest single-day gain since Jan. 3 on haven demand amid losses in the U.S. stock markets. Investors shunned risk after Apple warned it does not expect to meet its March quarter revenue guidance due to the coronavirus outbreak's effect on suppliers in China.

Bitcoin has increasingly moved in tandem with gold so far this year. Its one-month correlation with gold strengthened to 0.70 in January from Decembers -0.12, according to cryptocurrency exchange Krakens January volatility report.

Gold is currently trading above $1,600 per ounce and appears on track to test the six-year high of $1,611 reached on Jan. 8.

Daily chart

Bitcoin jumped 5 percent on Tuesday, keeping the 2020 rising trendline support intact and confirming another bullish higher low at $9,467 (Feb. 17 low) a sign of continuation of the rally from January lows near $6,850.

Additionally, prices closed well above $10,050 the high of Sundays doji candle confirming a bullish breakout from a period of indecisive price action.

With the bulls back in the drivers seat, a re-test of the recent high of $10,500 looks likely.

4-hour chart

Bitcoin is still trading in an expanding descending channel on the four-hour chart. A breakout looks likely as the relative strength index has already violated the descending trendline and is pointing north.

Bearish scenario

If the cryptocurrency again finds acceptance under $10,000, prices may revisit the former hurdle-turned-support of $9,825 (marked by arrow) on the hourly chart (above left).

A violation there would shift the focus to the neckline support of the potential head-and-shoulders pattern on the four-hour line chart. At press time, the key support is located at 9,584. A break lower could discourage buyers, leading to a deeper slide toward $9,000.

Disclosure:The author holds no cryptocurrency at the time of writing

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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Bitcoin Bulls Back in the Driving Seat as Price Crosses $10K - CoinDesk - CoinDesk

Bitcoin Gold (BTG)s price is being manipulated by a whale controlling close to half of the circulating supply. These are the findings of an analysis conducted by an independent trader and analyst, who preferred to remain anonymous.

He published his findings in a blog post, where he explained why he believes a single group of people accumulated their way into a huge Bitcoin Gold position, and are now using that supply to control the market.

The events started in August 2018, when Bitfinex margin long positions began its sharp ascent to include almost two million BTG. The exchange makes its margin data publicly available, which can help gauge the general trader sentiment in a particular coin for example by comparing the ratio of short and long positions.

BTG/USD Longs on Bitfinex. Source: TradingView.

In Bitcoin Golds case, the strong increase in margin positions was accompanied by lackluster price action. While the coin generally followed the broader crypto market, the price eventually spiraled downward.

BTG/USD on Bitfinex. Source: TradingView.

The analyst estimated that the 1.9 million BTG held at some point in Bitfinex represents between 38% and 48% of its total circulating supply.

Bitcoin Gold was born in 2017 after a network fork from Bitcoin (BTC), thus maintaining its original history up until that point. This means that Bitcoin Gold contains at least as many inactive coins as its parent, including Satoshis cache.

He further elaborated how he reached that figure:

Over 11 million Bitcoins (BTC) havent moved in the last year. Considering big wallets unwillingness to claim their coins due to fear of private key leak for a minimal return, it can be argued that a number even larger than 11 million BTGs are inactive or lost forever.

He then estimated a figure of 4 to 5 million active BTG. When asked by Cointelegraph why he is so certain that this is the work of one whale, he explained:

The accumulation was very consistent and systematic over the course of almost a year, it would be almost impossible for it to be a coincidence that multiple entities were using the exact same system to accumulate.

The analyst also conducted a manual analysis of the average entry price for the whale. By comparing the number of coins bought each day with their price, he arrived at a figure of $22.86 as the break-even price.

Following the extensive accumulation, the whale began using its position to influence markets. In early January, Bitcoin Golds price rose in consecutive moves by up to 200%, from $5 to $15. Margin positions dropped precipitously just as the upward move was complete.

BTG/USD Longs with price superimposed. Source: TradingView.

No major announcements were posted at the time on Bitcoin Golds Twitter account, which highlights the potential for fabricated price action. The analyst further noticed that Bitfinexs wallets were subsequently drained of a significant chunk of BTG.

He conducted a test on Binance, which showed that it was not the destination wallet. A volume comparison points to Korean exchange Bithumb as the likely receiver of these funds. The analyst argues that this is part of the whales distribution strategy, which would have external retail traders join in a fabricated pump to let the whale offload the coins.

Comparison of exchange activity. Source: Onlyforesight.com and TradingView.

The price was, however, held back from rising due to a powerful sell wall on Bitfinex, around $15. The increased activity on Bithumb led the analyst to conclude that the whale could be Korean, as the exchange requires a national Social Security Number to create an account.

The sudden decrease in Bitfinex margin could also be explained by the whale divesting from BTG. The analyst argues that the trading group simply claimed its position:

I think the whale was planning on selling on Bitfinex originally, and then realized there wasn't enough liquidity to exit there, so now they're forced to send their coins to another exchange (by first 'claiming' their margin position, and then withdrawing).

Claiming is the act of settling a margin position by compensating the amount loaned in full.

These market manipulation tactics have since been observed on Binance. As the analyst explained:

Bitfinex acts as a suppression mechanism; every time the price tries to increase on Binance, Bitfinex holds it back. People (and bots) see the difference, and try to pounce on the arbitrage opportunity. However, by the time people transfer their BTGs from Bitfinex to Binance, the gap has already closed and the prices equalize.

This can be clearly seen in Feb. 10 trading. As shown in the picture below, candles on Bitfinex have a clean cut around $13.8, while the price on Binance clearly moved past the barrier.

BTG/USD on Bitfinex and Binance (orange line), H1 candles on Feb. 10. Source: TradingView.

Given the scale and amount of time invested into BTG accumulation, the analyst argued that the traders will seek a substantial profit:

It is expected that the price of BTG will multiply in value from the current value of ~$12 (as of this post) and increase a substantial amount from the $22.86 projected breakeven price.

He conjectured that a potential target could be $100, which could result in a maximum profit of $150 million. The current attempts at price suppression are necessary to not let interest burn out too quickly, as the analyst explained:

If the price rises too fast, its destined to downtrend for an extended period as people gradually take profits and there is no-one to buy up the increasing supply hitting the market.

There are currently no signs that point to the Bitcoin Gold team having anything to do with this market manipulation. The developers did not respond to Cointelegraphs request for comment.

Read the original here:
Bitcoin Gold Is Held Captive by Whale With Almost Half the Supply - Cointelegraph

Just when you were lamenting not buying more bitcoin before the price spiked, Jake Levison made your day. According to the BlockWorks Group analyst, you only need 0.28 BTC to be in the top 1% richest of the world (in BTC terms).

As BTC blasts through $10K again in spite of possible impending bearish regulation, Bitcoinist recently reported that just 2% of all addresses hold 1 BTC or more.

Of course, many people hold more than 1 BTC spread out over various wallets. However, the actual number of people who own a whole bitcoin is really quite small at somewhere between 500,000 and 1 million.

Theres no need to despair if you havent been able to acquire (or keep) a full BTC, though. Jake Levison says that all it takes is 0.28 BTC:

But how did he reach this conclusion and when is this scenario likely to appear?

While Levisons bullish post sparked a flurry of excitement, it also raised a few questions. Like, where did he derive that figure and when will this scenario take place?

One of his followers pointed to a blog post by Unchained Capitals Parker Lewis called Bitcoin Obsoletes All Money. He uploaded a graphic showing that this could possibly be the case circa 2030. This is when average holdings are 0.001 BTC and there are one billion users on the network.

However, according to Levison, if youve got 0.28 BTC, its already happening now. He replied:

From now until the end of time.

My tweet was saying that if you own .28 BTC, only 1% of the world will ever be able to own more than you. Hence putting you in the top 1%.

That may not be such a bullish thing, after all, depending on your point of view. As BTC Kris pointed out:

No more than 5-10 million people will ever own a full Bitcoin

This naturally implies an unfair distribution of the wealth as whales, hodlers, nations and institutions hold the lions share.

Still, if you want to say youre in the top 1% (even though that currently equates around $2835.20) you can do so with 0.28 BTC. And if you want to own a whole one, it may be time to get a move on.

Are you in the worlds richest 1% in bitcoin terms? Let us know in the comments below!

Images via Shutterstock, Twitter @jakelevison @Haggsboson @BTCKris_

Read this article:
How Much Bitcoin You Need to Be in the Richest 1% of BTC Holders - Bitcoinist

Bitcoin $26,000?

If history repeats itself (spoiler: it usually doesnt), bitcoin could see a huge run in the next two months, according to Cointelegraph analyst Keith Wareing.

Why? Look to the cross... the golden cross.

Yes, bitcoins BTCUSD, -1.04% ascending 50-day moving average recently crossed over its 200-day moving average, a rare occurrence that had other popular crypto pundits chiming in on Twitter TWTR, +1.87% :

As Wareing pointed out, the last time bitcoin saw this kind of bullish action, the price shot up 170% in less than two months.

Meanwhile, optimism continues to bubble over among crypto bulls, like Max Keiser, who just raised his target from $100,000 to $400,000.

I first made this prediction when it was $1, I said this could go to $100,000, he said Monday on InfoWars. Im raising my official target for the first time in eight years, Im raising it to $400,000.

At last check, bitcoin was trading at $10,143.

See the original post:
Dont be late to the party bitcoin rose 170% the last time this signal flashed - MarketWatch

The highly-anticipated bitcoin halving is months away and many traders are still undecided whether the event is priced in or not.

To provide some context, the top cryptocurrency is up by over 50% from the 2019 bottom. In the previous two halvings, bitcoin soared by at least 2,902%. Its very unlikely that the reduction of mining rewards by half is priced in.

The hype over the halving is accelerating as Google Trends data reveal that the topic is just starting to gain traction.

The correlation between cryptocurrency investor attention and bitcoin price action has been well-documented. A study showed that Google Trends data as a proxy for investor attention is a strong predictor of bitcoins performance. The explosion of the search term bitcoin halving indicates that many may just be beginning to learn the concept.

A look at the Google Trends chart indicates that the term bitcoin halving struggled to go above the interest level of 32 for about a year. The struggle ended in December 2019 when interest on the term began to spike. Interestingly, bitcoin recorded its 2019 bottom in the same month. It could be said that the halving narrative is one of the catalysts of the current bull market.

Also, it appears that Google is projecting that the term bitcoin halving is about to hit peak popularity (interest level of 100). This comes at a time when bitcoins price is consolidating under $10,000.

This is not the first time that the term bitcoin halving experienced a massive surge. In 2016, the search term also skyrocketed and hit peak popularity a week after bitcoin rewards halved for the second time.

The Google Trend score just crossed a value of 50, which means that the term is half as popular as it was in 2016. To say that the narrative is already priced in would likely be inaccurate.

In addition, analysts are expecting demand to soar as the halving generates media attention. Bitcoin bull Bobby Lee said,

The halving event will generate a lot of attention and hype in the mainstream financial media, which will dramatically increase demand.

Crypto Michal shares the same view. The trader believes that the fear of missing out will kick in and rise as we approach the much-anticipated event.

These sentiments are aligned with Tom Lees prediction that bitcoin will soar by 190% in six months.

It appears that the halving may act as rocket fuel for the top cryptocurrency. Were starting to actually see its effect as speculators position in anticipation of the bullish event.

The above should not be considered trading advice from CCN.com. The writer owns bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

This article was edited by Sam Bourgi.

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Bitcoin Ready to Explode, According to This Key Metric - CCN.com

The year is starting off bullish in the BTC market as the top crypto crossed over the $10,000 psychological mark on Monday to trade at $10,160 USD on major exchanges. The sudden spike in price from sub- $10K levels, formed a bullish technical indicator on the weekly charts that saw the price double last time it formed in Aril 2019.

Could the price of BTC be headed to $20,000 this time too?

It has been a glorious opening of the year and it looks set to be better in the coming weeks as a golden cross forms on the weekly charts of BTC. The pattern is a key bullish indicator that has correctly predicted BTCs 2019 boost to $13,800 USD from $4,000 USD, which represents a 240% increase at the height of the boom.

Despite growing less and less consequential, the weekly MA golden cross gives a signal of an upcoming market in the coming weeks if buy trading volumes see set on a spike. Furthermore, the natural supply cut on BTCs protocol is on schedule to occur in May further increasing demand for BTC in the coming weeks.

The long term technical indicators on BTC/USD weekly charts signals a bullish trend on the pioneer coin in the near future as price test the resistance provided by the upper Bollinger band. The relative strength index is also in the buying zone, oscillating in a bullish trajectory at 61.

Looking at the golden crosses that triggered BTCs rallies in the past, whereby the price grew by 20,500%, 6,750%, and 250% respectively, a full confirmation of the pattern may set the price ablaze past all-time highs at $20,000 USD, with some analysts predicting a $26,000 top by the end of 2020.

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Bitcoin [BTC] Forms Key Bullish Pattern That Doubled BTCs Value; Possible Run To $20K?

Description

Bitcoin (BTC) forms a golden cross on the weekly charts as the price boosts past $10,200 USD.Given the bullish signals, can BTC bulls set the price to double its value past, crossing its all-time high (ATH) at $20 K USD.

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Lujan Odera

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CoinGape

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Bitcoin [BTC] Forms Key Bullish Pattern That Doubled BTCs Value; Possible Run To $20K? - Coingape