How Prosecutors Might Nail Ross Ulbricht Using The Supposedly Anonymous Bitcoin

Post written by Nicholas Weaver

Nicholas Weaver is computersecurity researcherat theInternational Computer Science Institute in Berkeley

Many have quipped that the cryptocurrency known as bitcoin are really prosecution futures, because rather than being anonymous, bitcoins can be remarkably easyto trace since every transaction between pseudonymous addresses ispublicly recorded. With the ongoing trial of Ross Ulbrichtoverallegations that he was the kingpin known as the Dread Pirate Roberts behind the Silk Road onlinedrug marketplace, this may be put to the test.

When the FBI arrested Ulbricht, they also captured his bitcoin stash.For the moment, let us assume that Ulbricht is (or at least asignificant version of) the Dread Pirate Roberts. How can the prosecution seek touse these bitcoin to prove that Ulbricht was the brains behind theSilk Road?

When the FBI seized the Silk Road server and the associated bitcoinwallets, they didnt just gain the ability to movethe bitcoins, they also gained an index into history. The privatekeys contained in this file can generate a near infinite universe ofdistinct public addresses, but capturing the private key enablescomputing all these addresses.This acts as an index into the blockchain, the public ledger whichrecords every bitcoin transaction. By seizing the wallet, the FBInow knows every bitcoin transaction involving the Silk Road wallets:payments sent, payments received, and even internaltransactions designed to confuse outside analysis.

The same applies to Ross Ulbrichts bitcoins. The wallets seized fromUlbrichts laptop not only allowed the FBI to capture 144,000bitcoinsfrom Mr. Ulbricht, but also provides an index to every bitcoin transaction he made, both legitimate and potentially illegal.The final piece of the puzzle is redandwhite, the allegedhitman/scammer who was supposedly hired by the Dread Pirate fora considerable sum.

The first step in tying Ulbricht to either Silk Road or redandwhiteis to search for any direct transactions. Having identified everyaddress belonging to either Ulbricht or Silk Road with the seized wallets, the FBIsimply has to look for all direct payments in the blockchain. If so, the prosecution torpedoes the Good Ship Revengethen and there: Ulbricht has already claimed the bitcoins are his.

Yet for the moment assume that Ulbricht was also careful, and used abitcoin tumbler, also known as a bitcoin money laundering service.Tumblers promise some anonymity: a user deposits a given amount intoone address and a few hours later a supposedly unrelated address thencreates a final payment, deducting the tumblers fee.

Such tumblers do a very poor job of hiding transactions,especially when dealing with a thousand or a hundred thousand bitcoins. The simplest approach is to simply lookfor common flow patterns. If 1.2 bitcoin left Silk Road to anunknown address, and Ulbricht received 1.1752157 bitcoin five hours later, this is suggestive. Add in thousands of such coincidentaltransactions and a pattern will emerge.

Evenmore sophisticated analysesare possible. These tumblers formclusters,a group of independent addresses that are identifiable with a singleowner. Even if a tumbler uses multiple independent pools of bitcoin,each pool can be identified.

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How Prosecutors Might Nail Ross Ulbricht Using The Supposedly Anonymous Bitcoin

Bitcoin price plunge sparks new crash fears

Bitcoin had a stand at the CES exhibition in Las Vegas last week. Photograph: Ethan Miller/Getty Images

The price of one bitcoin has plunged by more than a quarter in just two days, prompting fears that the currency is in the midst of its fourth major crash.

On Tuesday morning, the currency was being traded at $267 a coin on Bitstamp, the largest individual exchange. However, by late Wednesday afternoon that had collapsed to just $195 - a fall of 27%.

The slide means that the currency has fallen by more than 80% from its record high of $1,150 reached in November 2013.

Unlike that crash, and the two before it in the summer of 2011 and spring of 2013, this time the cryptocurrency has not been the victim of a speculative bubble that then popped. Rather, the price of bitcoin has been declining fairly consistently since June 2014, when it started falling after months of temporary stability at about $600 a coin.

Greg Schvey, a partner at cryptocurrency data firm TradeBlock, told the New York Times that the new precipitous decline showed signs of a squeeze on bitcoin. People have these very real fiat-based liabilities that they have to pony up for, and to do that, theyre going to have to sell Bitcoins, he said.

The bitcoin network runs on the processing power of miners - computers put to work solving algorithmic puzzles in exchange for rewards in the currency. Companies that have invested millions of dollars into building specialised server farms have come to dominate the mining process, and received their share of the rewards.

But Schvey suggests that the real money those companies borrowed to start operating were beginning to be called in, forcing them to sell some of their proceeds that they may otherwise have held on to in the hope of a recovery in the price of bitcoin.

Further, the cryptocurrency has been shaken by yet another attack on the infrastructure that enables it to function as a working economy. Bitstamp reported a successful hacking attack in early January, which forced it to close its doors temporarily after $5.6m of bitcoin were stolen. While the attack was nowhere near as severe as that which took down the once-leading exchange, MtGox, last year, it still alarmed many.

In the face of the slump, many bitcoin proponents are turning their attention to a more fundamental technology called the blockchain. Sitting at the core of the bitcoin currency, the blockchain is the concept that allows money to be traded on a truly decentralised basis, but some argue that its capability goes far beyond that. The comparison most often drawn is that if bitcoin is an application, such as email, the blockchain is more like the whole internet.

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Bitcoin price plunge sparks new crash fears

Bitcoin keeps falling Wednesday

The exchange ultimately resumed services after admitting that about $5 million worth of bitcoins had been stolen. O'Connor said the development may have spooked some cryptocurrency speculators, as Bitstamp had a reputation as one of the more professional outfits in the bitcoin community.

"I would imagine they were inundated with requests for withdrawal on Friday," he said.

Read MoreBitcoin breaks another key level

Another factor weighing on the cryptocurrency is that Russia is beginning to ban bitcoin-related websites, "Fast Money" trader Brian Kelly pointed out in a blog post.

Still, the selling that continued into Wednesday may also be part of a vicious cycle, as some have theorized on the influential Reddit bitcoin forum. In other words, the low prices may be forcing volunteers who "mine" new bitcoins to cut their losses. If the price falls below the electricity and hardware costs of "mining" bitcoinsa process that involves solving highly complex mathematical algorithmsthen the enterprise becomes unprofitable, and some miners will be forced to sell their holdings and give up.

That said, bitcoin's death has been predicted many times (one site has counted 29 obituaries), and some predict that the technology behind the system could live well beyond the currency it now supports.

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Bitcoin keeps falling Wednesday

Bitcoin in freefall as virtual currency plunges below $US250

Confidence in the virtual economy appears to be waning. Photo: Getty

The price of Bitcoin has plunged below $US250 and appears to be in freefall, as sell orders dominate global exchanges and investors flee the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin's entrance into 2015 has been appalling, in the last 10 days alone the price has lost 26 per cent in value. Its rapid decline in recent weeks suggests confidence in the virtual currency is evaporating.

On Wednesday, CoinDesk recorded the price dropping to about $224 from $267, below where it began in April 2013. Large sell orders were triggered as Bitcoin sank through the $US250 mark, which traders have flagged as an imporant psychological barrier.

Bitcoin price plummets. Photo: CoinDesk

"We are seeing some huge orders sitting waiting at the $US200 mark and a lot of volume," an IG analyst told Fairfax Media. "That could be the next resistance point but we don't really know where Bitcoin is heading at the moment.

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"I think it might hover around where it is for a while."

Some analysts pointed to the $US5 million hack of major exchange Bitstamp at the beginning of January as a potential spook for traders. The exchange suspended activity after the theft of 19,000 Bitcoins, however trading began again at the end of last week.

While some traders may be scurrying to pile on the short swaps or top-up their margin accounts, the plummeting price of Bitcoin has been felt throughout the cryptocurrency economy. Miners have found the sharp drop in price has directly affected their ability to stay in business.

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Bitcoin in freefall as virtual currency plunges below $US250

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Cryptocurrency Based Basic Income Program Started In Finland

jovius writes: Krypto Fin ry, the association behind Fimkrypto cryptocurrency (FIMK), has started to provide each registered Finnish citizen a payment of 1000 FIMK per month in December. 1000 FIMK equals few dimes at the moment, and a bit over 100 people have registered so far. (The registration is free.)

FIMK is based on NXT 2nd generation crypto system; the add-ons and development making it into 2.5G. The roadmap includes payment cards and other technology to enable easier exchange between fiat currencies FIMK, Bitcoins and others. Krypto Fin ry received 533 BTC in initial donations last Summer. FIMK can be traded for example on DGEX, and it's also a valid payment method in few stores in Finland.

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Cryptocurrency Based Basic Income Program Started In Finland

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Bitcoin exchange Bitstamp suspended after hack

The virtual exchange of cryptocurrency Bitcoin has always proved to be tricky business, with many still unsure of whether to adopt the intangible money form or not.

The temporary suspension of Europe's leading Bitcoin exchange Bitstamp's services -- a result of a hack yesterday -- does nothing to dispel hesitations.

In a statement released today, Bitstamp revealed that some of its operational wallets had been compromised on 4 January, leading to a loss of no less than 19,000 BTC (3 million).

Officals at Bitstamp ensured that the emergency response to the breach on 4 January was swift, with rapid-fire notifications being released to all customers, instructing them to no longer make deposits to "previously issued Bitcoin deposit addresses.

While the 3m loss may seem serious, Bitstamp says the breach is only a "small fraction of Bitstamp's total bitcoin reserves", the rest of which are "held in secure offline cold storage systems".

Since its inception in 2008, the nascent Bitcoin industry has caused both excitement and trepidation.

The untraceable nature of the cryptocurrency is a characteristic that has often been exploited by darker forces looking for anonymous payment methods.

The clampdown on black market website Silk Road -- which only accepted Bitcoin payments -- in late 2013, along with the invention of a Dark Wallet in 2014 have already dampened the initial hype around the virtual currency.

For the moment, Bitstamp's services are still down, and despite the assurances of Bitstamp representatives, this current breach follows in the wake of cyber attacks in February 2014, which prevented withdrawals for a number of days.

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Bitcoin exchange Bitstamp suspended after hack