BTC HODL Target Found? Almost 50% Say They Will Sell If Bitcoin Price Reaches $100,000 – CryptoPotato

An interesting poll on Twitter revealed that if Bitcoins price reached $100,000, most people would prefer to sell either all or some of their holdings for fiat. A comparison with another poll, however, shows an exciting consistency with what Bitcoin holders supposedly intend to do.

One of the most important decisions that an investor has to do is to come up with an exit strategy. In other words, they need to have a clear picture in mind as to when to sell their holdings.

Bitcoin is no different. Despite the multitude of specifics that it has compared to traditional assets, its also an investment option as any other its price goes up and down. As such, those who buy it as a means of investment need to come up with a figure at which theyd eventually dispose of their holdings.

Thats precisely what popular cryptocurrency commentator Chris Dunn aims to understand with his latest Twitter poll.

In a straightforward question, Dunn asks Bitcoin holders what they would do if BTCs price reaches $100,000. Over 1,700 people took part in the survey, where 45% of them answered that they would sell some or all of their BTC for fiat.

Another major part of the voters answered that they would sell their Bitcoin for physical assets. In other words, $100,000 seems like a number that a lot of people consider as a price target to dispose of their BTC holdings, at least partially.

Going beyond this, however, the poll also reveals a very interesting similarity when compared to a similar survey from not so long ago. In late 2019, Cryptopotato reported on a similar poll carried out by Binance Life, which showed that 23% of the people dont intend to sell their Bitcoin holdings at all.

In Dunns poll, 20.8% of people said that they wouldnt be selling their BTC if it reaches $100,000 but instead would HODL everything.

This brings us to the other group of people who buy Bitcoin those who are in it for what it was intended to be a viable, peer-to-peer means of electronic payments. In a scenario where Bitcoin replaces traditional fiat currencies, however far-fetched this might seem right now, one wouldnt need cash as hed be spending his bitcoins instead.

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BTC HODL Target Found? Almost 50% Say They Will Sell If Bitcoin Price Reaches $100,000 - CryptoPotato

No, Bitcoin Gains Are Not Down To Fears Of Coronavirus Outbreak – newsBTC

Today, markets are green, with most of the top 100 posting gains. At the time of writing Bitcoin is up to $8,962 on the daily. Having peaked 4% to just below $9,150 earlier on in the day.

Bitcoin daily price since Oct 19. (Source: tradingview.com)

Analyst, Mati Greenspan attributes this run of form to US fiscal factors, including the ever-booming stock market. While discounting any notion of the heightening coronavirus pandemic being a factor.

As such, at the present time, Greenspan sees Bitcoin behaving more like a risk asset, rather than a safe haven.

The outbreak of coronavirus began making headlines at the turn of the year. Reports centered around cases of pneumonia-like symptoms from a virus that did not match other known viruses. Symptoms include tiredness, trouble breathing, high temperature, and a sore throat.

Research shows that the coronavirus is similar in structure to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). And much like SARS, its airborne, with touching infected people and objects also thought to transmit the disease.

The onset of the virus has been pinned on the central city of Wuhan, Hubei province, which is approximately 500 miles west of Shanghai.

Location of Wuhan. (Source: google.com)

Scientists believe coronavirus originated in animals, before mutating to the extent that it can survive in a human host. As such, wet markets in Wuhan, which are known for selling exotic animals for food, including bats, have been blamed as the source of the outbreak.

Official figures claim that 4,500 have been infected, and 106 have died. With the virus spreading to at least 16 countries worldwide.

Moreover, health services in China are being stretched to breaking point. With healthcare professionals voicing a lack of manpower and resources in fighting the disease. One video on YouTube shows a doctor collapsing from exhaustion after a busy shift.

But more alarmingly, there are fears that China is underreporting the severity of the outbreak. A chilling leaked video shows a nurse from Wuhan sharing her story of the outbreak.

Her heart-wrenching account criticizes the Chinese government for censoring the story while downplaying the true extent of the crisis.

Im in the area where the coronavirus started. Im here to tell the truth. At this moment, Hubei province, including Wuhan area, even China, 90,000 people have been infected by coronavirus.

All the same, few, including analyst Mati Greenspan, believe Bitcoins upward trend is the result of the worsening coronavirus pandemic.

Following the outbreak, Chinese stock markets posted massive falls. So much so that trading ceased on January, 23rd, with authorities recommending that they resume on the 3rd, February.

But investors did not flee to traditional safe havens, namely gold, and part of the reason why comes down to booming US stocks, which have been immune to fears over the coronavirus so far.

The S&P 500 is down 1.6% today but continues to keep most of Januarys gains.

Monthly performance of S&P 500. (Source: google.com)

As such, with US stocks performing well, on the back of repo money, investors have little motivation to jump to Bitcoin. And it makes sense that Bitcoins 30% gains, since the start of the year, have little to do with the outbreak.

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No, Bitcoin Gains Are Not Down To Fears Of Coronavirus Outbreak - newsBTC

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP: Bitcoin moving on the razor edge – FXStreet

Yesterday's positive day along the crypto board has brought the BTC/USD pair to the borderline between a bearish market and a free space where it can grow again in search of new historical highs. The technical setup is critical, although it hides danger if it doesn't materialize, as I explain in the technical section.

The essential notes of the day regarding the crypto ecosystem:

- The World Economic Forum presents a project to promote the adoption of a "robust" framework for the Crypto ecosystem, involving both the private and public sectors.

- A group of Bitcoins Cash miners from both North America and Europe are threatening to promote a hard fork as a lobbying measure against BTC's intention. TOP's CEO Jiang Zhuoer is using 12.5% of the mining rewards to cover infrastructure costs.

The ETH/BTC is currently trading at the price level of 0.01903 while attempting to stay above the EMA50. The excellent performance of the Bitcoin yesterday harmed the price.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at 0.01965, then the second at 0.020 and the third one at 0.022.

Below the current price, the first support level is at 0.0189, then the second at 0.01865 and the third one at 0.018.

The MACD on the daily chart is preparing for a bearish cross above the zero line, a typical consolidation structure. This configuration increases the chances of seeing recent minimum levels below 0.018 again.

The DMI on the daily chart shows bulls in continuous decline, while bears are increasing their strength and are close to disputing the lead to buyers.

The BTC/USD is currently trading at the price level of $8961. The session high is at the price congestion resistance at $9150.

The long term downward trend line is at $9025, while the BTC/USD finds support at the SMA200 which is at the price level of $8903.5

The BTC/USD must close the day above the $9,025 level to confirm the exit from the long term bearish scenario.

A close below the SMA200 would cancel the current bullish breakout scenario.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $9150, then the second at $9550 and the third one at $10500.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $8900, then the second at $8800 and the third one at $8400.

The MACD on the daily chart is near to move upwards again, but it is not confirmed yet. Taking market positions with this structure involves a lot of risks, both upward and downward.

The best option is to wait for the price to dictate the path the price will take in the following weeks.

The DMI on the daily chart shows bulls trying to get back above the ADX line. The most likely pattern indicates that the bulls will fail to cross, and the price will fall.

The ETH/USD is currently trading at the price level of $170.46and is far from reaching the SMA200 as the BTC/USD has done. The long term downward trend line is now at the $185 level.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $176.7, then the second at $180 and the third one at $190.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $170, then the second at $160 and the third one at $155.

The MACD on the daily chart shows a neutral profile, as even though the typical trend of this structure is bearish, the fact that it remains so horizontal shows underlying strength upward.

The DMI on the daily chart shows the bulls moving up again as the bears retreat. The structure confirms the price movement.

The XRP/USD is currently trading at the price level of $0.2326and is the only Top 3 that is already free of the long term bearish trend. The day's high remains at the SMA100 level at $0.2358.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $0.237, then the second at $0.253 and the third one at $0.267.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $0.227, then the second at $0.217 and the third one at $0.20.

The MACD on the daily chart shows a similar structure to that described for the ETH/USD, leaving a neutral situation with a slight downward trend.

The DMI on the daily chart shows the bulls moving upward, while the bears are moving downward. They do not provide any additional information about price behavior.

Get 24/7 Crypto updates in our social media channels: Give us a follow at @FXSCrypto and our FXStreet Crypto Trading Telegram channel

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Crypto Killed the Tax Man: Bitcoin Cash Escapes Hash War Over Mining Tax Grenade – CCN.com

The proposed Bitcoin Cash (BCH) tax levy on miners could now be dead in the water.

Bitcoin.com one of the five mining pools backing the plan has withdrawn its support for the tax plan. The sudden u-turn comes just hours after an anonymous group of miners threatened to launch a hash war in opposition to the tax.

Tuesdays post by BCH mining pool, Bitcoin.com, announced the firms re-thinking of the BCH tax proposal. While the possibility of another chain split remains possible, Bitcoin.com will not continue to support the tax plan.

As it stands now, Bitcoin.com will not go through with supporting any plan unless there is more agreement in the ecosystem such that the risk of a chain split is negligible.

Tuesdays blog post noted the tax plans lack of clarity when it came to deciding where the $6 million in tax collections would go.

We think the lack of clarity in this is one of the main drivers of confusion and contention around the various funding proposals. In venture capital, investors do not find talented technical individuals and hand them money to do something.

The tax was initially levied as a way of funding Bitcoin Cashs development in-house. A 12.5% tax would be collected from BCH block rewards for 6 months until $6 million was raised. These funds would then be distributed to BCH developers for the betterment of the project.

The reason funding discussions are taking place is because proper funding will strengthen the Bitcoin Cash ecosystem, but it cannot come at the expense of compromising the foundational goals of Bitcoin Cash. Bitcoin.com will not risk a chain split or a change to the underlying economics.

The anonymous mining group which threatened the chain split took notice of Bitcoin.coms reversal. The group announced their intention to halt plans for a hardfork, and will continue to support BCH for the time being.

We have taken notice of Bitcoin.com post here. We trust Bitcoin.com are going to be able to convince the rest of the signatories to severely amend the IFP. We are therefore standing down and will not start our competing pool for the time being and will continue to support the BCH pools instead.

The tax proposal triggered vigorous debate among developers, miners and investors in the week since its announcement. Originally declared set in stone by its author, Jiang Zhuoer, the plan attracted criticism on a number of fronts.

But the turning point for Bitcoin.com came when the prospect of another chain split reared its head. Both Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin SV (BSV) spent tens of millions competing for hashrate in 2018.

The previous war also had a disastrous effect on cryptocurrency prices, not least Bitcoin Cash itself. The coin lost 87% of its value in five weeks in November of that year. A repeat of this messy affair is sought by no one in the cryptocurrency space.

This article was edited by Samburaj Das.

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$9,500 is Imminent For Bitcoin Despite 5% Intraday Gain: Heres Why – newsBTC

Bitcoin gained bullish momentum above the key $8,800 resistance. As a result, BTC price surpassed $9,000 and it seems like the bulls are now aiming a test of $9,500.

Yesterday, we discussed how bitcoin bulls aim big after the price surge above the $8,500 resistance. BTC even surged above the main $8,800 resistance level and the 100 hourly simple moving average to move further into a positive zone.

In the past three sessions, the price is up around 5% and it surpassed the $9,000 psychological barrier. A new weekly high is formed near the $9,145 and the price is currently correcting lower.

It is trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent rise from the $8,873 low to $9,145 high. The first key support on the downside is near the $9,000 level.

Furthermore, the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent rise from the $8,873 low to $9,145 high is also near the $9,000 level to act as a strong support. If there are additional losses, bitcoin price might decline towards the $8,880 support area.

More importantly, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $8,880 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price fails to stay above the $8,800 support, it could revisit the main $8,500 support area (the recent breakout zone).

Bitcoin Price

In the short term, BTC might correct lower towards the $9,000 and $8,880 support levels. However, the bulls remain in control as long as the price is above $8,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the $9,200 area. If bitcoin surges above the $9,200 resistance, it will most likely set the pace for a test of the $9,500 hurdle. Any further gains may perhaps call for a push towards $10,000 in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD The MACD is showing positive signs in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI for BTC/USD is currently correcting from the overbought zone.

Major Support Levels $9,000 followed by $8,880.

Major Resistance Levels $9,150, $9,200 and $9,500.

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$9,500 is Imminent For Bitcoin Despite 5% Intraday Gain: Heres Why - newsBTC

Bitcoin Moves on Path to Money But Unit of Account a Long Way Off – Bitcoinist

Bitcoin is only a decade old but it has come a long way on the path to becoming money. A couple of metrics to consider are precision of spending and unit of account status.

When bitcoin was first envisioned back in 2009 it was largely experimental. For its first year, tens of thousands of them were fired across networks just to see what happened.

The first real world transaction occurred in 2010 when Laszlo Hanyecz famously asked for pizza on the bitcointalk forum in exchange for 10,000 BTC. He received a $25 order of pizza in exchange for the coins marking the first ever transaction for a tangible asset.

It went from magic worthless internet money to something with real value, which was the desired intention for the transaction. At todays bitcoin prices that pizza would be worth $90 million.

BitMEX Research has delved deeper into the precision of spending on the bitcoin network to reveal how the accuracy has improved over time.

By dividing outputs into groups increasing by a power of ten (from 1 satoshi to 100k BTC) and plotting the results on a chart it is clear to see the increase in precision over the past decade.

Currently over 70% of Bitcoin outputs use the highest available degree of precision (one satoshi), considerable growth since the c40% level in 2012.

The report concluded that an increase in precision would be beneficial to privacy based on the way bitcoin transactions work with UTXOs.

As our data shows, the level of precision is increasing, such that most outputs now have the maximum level of precision. This could inadvertently be positive news from a privacy perspective.

The study went on to state that bitcoin needs to achieve three major steps before it can be considered the same status as money.

Firstly it needs to be used as a medium of exchange which is already happening, driven by its potential unique capability: censorship resistant electronic payments.

The second step has been clearly evidenced this month and that is its status as a store of value. With market movements mirroring the worlds largest store of value, gold, bitcoin is being viewed in the same light, especially in times of adversity.

Thirdly is the unit of account status. This is when goods and services are priced in bitcoin, or satoshis in this case. This is still a very long way off due to price volatility as BTC is still primarily a vehicle for speculation. There are also a number of factors that need to happen to the technology before it sees mass adoption.

It added that if this does finally occur then the degree of precision may decrease due to the assets increased use as a unit of account.

How long will it take for bitcoin to have money status? Add your comments below.

Images via Shutterstock

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Bitcoin Moves on Path to Money But Unit of Account a Long Way Off - Bitcoinist

New Collaboration Brings Increased Open Source Security Support and Assurances to Software Developers – PRNewswire

SAN FRANCISCO, Jan. 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ --The Linux Foundation, the nonprofit organization enabling mass innovation through open source, and the Open Source Technology Improvement Fund (OSTIF) today announced a strategic partnership to advance security for open source software (OSS) that has become critical to the world's infrastructure.

The organizations will bring together and build on a depth of their experience supporting security audits for widely deployed open source communities. This formal and strategic agreement will allow the Linux Foundation to augment its work on security audits, of which it has already investedmore than$1macross more than 20 security audits for open source projects to date, by including audit sourcing experts through OSTIF's network. OSTIF will share the resources available through the Linux Foundation's Community Bridge, a funding and support ecosystem for developers and projects, with its community to help fundraise for new audits.

"The Linux Foundation's ability to fundraise across industries to support thousands of developers around the world is unprecedented," said Amir Montazery, vice president of development at OSTIF. "The Linux Foundation is a pioneer in open source software and one of the few organizations taking the actions required to truly support it for generations to come. We are excited to join forces and increase our collective impact on improving critical software."

As part of the strategic partnership, The Linux Foundation will appoint Mike Dolan, vice president of strategic programs, to the OSTIF Advisory Board.

"OSTIF represents a global community and network of security experts and developers and demonstrates an important commitment to the improvement and sustainability of open source software," said Mike Dolan, vice president of strategic programs, Linux Foundation. "This is a natural collaboration that we hope will increase trust in the global open source software supply chain that underpins modern society."

About the Linux Foundation Founded in 2000, the Linux Foundation is supported by more than 1,000 members and is the world's leading home for collaboration on open source software, open standards, open data, and open hardware. Linux Foundation's projects are critical to the world's infrastructure including Linux, Kubernetes, Node.js, and more. The Linux Foundation's methodology focuses on leveraging best practices and addressing the needs of contributors, users and solution providers to create sustainable models for open collaboration. For more information, please visit us at linuxfoundation.org.

About Open Source Technology Improvement Fund The Open Source Technology Improvement Fund is a non-profit organization that connects open source security projects with much needed funding and logistical support. This core value is driven by public fundraising and by soliciting donations from corporate and government donors.For more information, please visithttps://ostif.org

The Linux Foundation has registered trademarks and uses trademarks. For a list of trademarks of The Linux Foundation, please see our trademark usage page: https://www.linuxfoundation.org/trademark-usage.

Linux is a registered trademark of Linus Torvalds.

Media Contact pr@linuxfoundation.org

SOURCE The Linux Foundation

http://www.linuxfoundation.org

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New Collaboration Brings Increased Open Source Security Support and Assurances to Software Developers - PRNewswire

Security in the financial industry – TechRadar

In recent years, there has been a growing realization that privacy is every citizens right. Whats also become clear is that you cant have privacy without security in place. You only need to look at the number of cyber-attacks which have plagued the headlines in recent years to see that companies have been irresponsible to date. No company is immune to todays cybercriminals, especially financial services companies who process and handle huge amounts of sensitive information. With this in mind, these businesses need to ensure theyre adopting the right technologies to protect themselves from this growing threat.

Stephan Fabel, Director of Product, Canonical - publisher of Ubuntu.

Encryption is one of the biggest solutions to this problem and is an enabler of modern-day banking and fintech operations. Banks are well-known for using encryption for security reasons. Currently, the biggest challenge facing the finserv sector is around bringing this level of security to the wider industry. Finserv customers want high levels of security but also easy deployment, flexibility, and agility, which often poses a challenge for IT teams. Canonical is working closely with IBM to overcome this issue and provide its fintech customers with the technology to optimize data protection and privacy across both containers and multi-cloud infrastructures.

One such technology is the secure service container - a tool which has been specifically developed for container-based applications on IBMs LinuxONE. Banks and fintechs are already using this technology to protect themselves against three of the most common attack factors: malware, ransomware and memory scraping, as well as other mainstream attack methods used for stealing cryptocurrency, and insider attacks which compromise user credentials.

By using the mix of hardware and software that the so-called security service container offers, developers get the same quality of security that they would on Linux, and this works in any data center, whether on-premise or using cloud services. The next generations of finserv IT infrastructures are being built around Linux because it is easy to deploy, and gives you a highly functional and easily automated stack. Industry giants such as Barclays have already built whole data center infrastructures around Linux. Besides providing easy access to innovations and software frameworks for IT teams, open source software also increases trust, which is essential for security compliance in the long term.

When it comes to close-sourced software, it is impossible to verify all background activities happening, and in case of a bug or an error, it is hard to analyse the reasons behind them, given only the original developer can access the backend. In the case of open source, the community of developers is very quick to spot and fix bugs or errors.

In the financial services industry, containerization can enable new levels of security, cost saving and developer efficiency. The majority of developers are not security experts but are looking for cost efficiencies when deploying new applications and systems. With containers, you can push a button, move things to the cloud and it will run as a virtual machine. These capabilities are not something developers have traditionally been able to benefit from to provide advanced security through hardware. Even with physical access to computers, cyber criminals wont be able to break into the system.

In about 10-15 years quantum computers will become powerful enough to break all current cryptography keys, and the banking and financial industries are preparing for the post-quantum cryptography already. Technology vendors are already populating their systems with such algorithms, moving from firmware into hardware. When quantum computers reach the required level of power, the majority of businesses will need to decrypt all of their data and encrypt it with the new post-quantum cryptographic methods.

In addition, blockchain technology will also become one of the key security algorithms. The goal is to enable the finserv industry to operate, test and run analytics without data. It is also great that new players in the finserv space, who have never had legacy systems in place, will build their infrastructures on non-monolithic systems.

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3 Reasons to Buy IBM Stock – Motley Fool

International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) managed to beat expectations with its fourth-quarter report last week, and it provided guidance calling for revenue and earnings growth in 2020. The stock has been trending downward for years as the company's transformation failed to translate into sustainable growth. That painful period may finally be over.

While looking at IBM's stock chart doesn't foster much confidence, there are a few good reasons to buy the stock.

IBM loaded up its balance sheet with debt to acquire open source software company Red Hat. While there's no guarantee that the $34 billion deal won't end in write-offs and disappointment, Red Hat presents IBM with some significant growth opportunities.

Red Hat itself was growing at a solid double-digit rate prior to the acquisition. Red Hat Enterprise Linux accounted for about one-third of the paid enterprise operating system market in 2018, second only to Microsoft. And Red Hat OpenShift, the company's container-based platform for hybrid cloud, currently leads the market.

The Red Hat acquisition strengthened IBM's position in the hybrid cloud market on day one. The combination of IBM and Red Hat is powerful, because IBM now has the opportunity to pitch Red Hat software to its large clients. Red Hat's normalized revenue growth rate accelerated to 24% in IBM's fourth quarter as that benefit began to be realized. One example: IBM recently announced a $1 billion hybrid cloud deal with a major Spanish bank involving Red Hat's OpenShift platform.

While IBM paid a steep price for Red Hat, the deal may end up being the key to IBM's return to sustainable growth.

Image source: Getty Images.

IBM grew its revenue in the fourth quarter, and it expects revenue growth in 2020. Earnings are being pressured by the accounting treatment of Red Hat's pre-acquisition deferred revenue, but IBM stock looks cheap even including that headwind.

For 2020, IBM expects to generate adjusted earnings per share of at least $13.35. This number includes the impact of IBM being unable to recognize all of Red Hat's stand-alone revenue. Free cash flow is expected to be around $12.5 billion, up from $11.9 billion in 2019.

With the stock trading around $139, both the price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-free cash flow ratio are right around 10. That's a valuation that assumes little or no growth. IBM expects to grow its adjusted pre-tax income by a high single-digit percentage annually through 2021, factoring in the benefits of Red Hat. If the company can hit that target, it could earn the stock a higher multiple.

A cheap price alone isn't enough to make a stock a good investment. But combine the beaten-down valuation with the growth potential afforded by Red Hat, and IBM looks like a good value.

IBM temporarily halted share buybacks once the Red Hat acquisition closed in order to prioritize paying down its debt. The company remains committed to growing the dividend, though, and another increase is expected in April.

Assuming IBM does raise its dividend in a few months, the company will become a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 consecutive years. IBM has paid dividends uninterrupted for over 100 years.

IBM's next dividend increase will likely be small, but a high yield makes up for the sluggish growth. The current quarterly dividend of $1.62 per share represents a yield of about 4.7%.

IBM is not a growth stock. Slow and steady growth is likely the best investors can hope for, but that's perfectly fine if the price is right. With IBM trading at pessimistic levels and sporting a high-yield dividend, growth doesn't need to be spectacular for the stock to be a winner over the next few years.

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3 Reasons to Buy IBM Stock - Motley Fool

Remember the Clipper chip? NSA’s botched backdoor-for-Feds from 1993 still influences today’s encryption debates – The Register

Enigma More than a quarter century after its introduction, the failed rollout of hardware deliberately backdoored by the NSA is still having an impact on the modern encryption debate.

Known as Clipper, the encryption chipset developed and championed by the US government only lasted a few years, from 1993 to 1996. However, the project remains a cautionary tale for security professionals and some policy-makers. In the latter case, however, the lessons appear to have been forgotten, Matt Blaze, McDevitt Professor of Computer Science and Law at Georgetown University in the US, told the USENIX Enigma security conference today in San Francisco.

In short, Clipper was an effort by the NSA to create a secure encryption system, aimed at telephones and other gear, that could be cracked by investigators if needed. It boiled down to a microchip that contained an 80-bit key burned in during fabrication, with a copy of the key held in escrow for g-men to use with proper clearance. Thus, any data encrypted by the chip could be decrypted as needed by the government. The Diffie-Hellman key exchange algorithm was used to exchange data securely between devices.

Any key escrow mechanism is going to be designed from the same position of ignorance that Clipper was designed with in the 1990s

Not surprisingly, the project met stiff resistance from security and privacy advocates who, even in the early days of the worldwide web, saw the massive risk posed by the chipset: for one thing, if someone outside the US government was able to get hold of the keys or deduce them, Clipper-secured devices would be vulnerable to eavesdropping. The implementation was also buggy and lacking. Some of the people on the Clipper team were so alarmed they secretly briefed opponents of the project, alerting them to insecurities in the design, The Register understands.

Blaze, meanwhile, recounted how Clipper was doomed from the start, in part because of a hardware-based approach that was expensive and inconvenient to implement, and because technical vulnerabilities in the encryption and escrow method would be difficult to fix. Each chip cost about $30 when programmed, we note, and the relatively short keys could be broken by future computers.

In the years following Clipper's unveiling, a period dubbed the "first crypto wars," Blaze said, the chipset was snubbed and faded into obscurity while software-based encryption rose and led to the loosening of government restrictions on its sale and use. It helped that Blaze revealed in 1994 a major vulnerability [PDF] in the design of Clipper's escrow design, sealing its fate.

It is important to note, said Blaze, that the pace of innovation and unpredictability of how technologies will develop makes it incredibly difficult to legislate an approach to encryption and backdoors. In other words, security mechanisms made mandatory today, such as another escrow system, could be broken within a few years, by force or by exploiting flaws, leading to disaster.

This unpredictability in technological development, said Blaze, thus undercuts the entire concept of backdoors and key escrow. The FBI and Trump administration (and the Obama one before that) pushed hard for such a system but need to learn the lessons of history, Blaze opined.

"The FBI is the only organization on Earth complaining that computer security is too good," the Georgetown prof quipped.

"Any key escrow mechanism is going to be designed from the same position of ignorance that Clipper was designed with in the 1990s. We are going to be looking back at those engineering decisions ten years from now as being equally laughably wrong."

Daniel Weitzner, founding director of the MIT Internet Policy Research Initiative, said this problem is not lost on all governments trying to work out new encryption laws and policies in the 21st century. He sees a number of administrations trying to address the issue by bringing developers and telcos in on the process.

"What the legislators hear is a complicated problem that they don't know how to resolve," Weitzner noted. "Moving the debate to experts on one hand gets you down to details, but it is not necessarily easy."

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Remember the Clipper chip? NSA's botched backdoor-for-Feds from 1993 still influences today's encryption debates - The Register