Nevermore Security Named One of Business Worldwide Magazine’s Most Innovative Companies to Watch 2019 – Yahoo Finance

LONDON, Dec. 11, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Cyber Security is a hot topic for organisations of all sizes, with the global cost estimated at over $600 billion. Nevermore Security specialises in helping the energy sector protect their businesses and customers from the ever-increasing threat of hacking, and Business Worldwide Magazine has ranked in its "20 Most Innovative Companies to Watch, 2019".

The list is a celebration of trailblazing organisations that are changing the game in their respective industries and altering the corporate landscape. From banking to industry, healthcare to energy, these companies are at the cutting edge of technology, innovation and business strategies. As individuals and as part of the larger global landscape, they demonstrate a shared goal of developing revolutionary products and tech with the power to drive scalable business models and disrupt established industries and markets.

Nevermore Security was founded by Annabelle Lee, a cyber security specialist with over 40 years of technical experience in IT system design and implementation. Throughout her career she has written many documents on cyber security, cryptography and testing, and has specialised in working with the electricity sector for the past 15 years.

There have been huge changes in the threat landscape over recent years, with cyber adversaries constantly coming up with more sophisticated ways to hack into organisations and compromise their valuable data. Threats like third party risks, data breaches and attacks on the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) are expected to increase in frequency over the coming years. Cyber security is essential to all industries, and the energy sector is no exception. Advancements in technology have delivered significant cost and production efficiencies, but the combination of new technology and legacy equipment have presented many security risks. The advent of smart technologies and IoT devices have exposed the sector to a new set of risks that did not exist even a decade ago - and that's where Nevermore Security comes in.

By helping electricity companies understand the threats and see their organisations from an attacker's perspective, Nevermore guides leaders on how to identify attack vectors and mitigate potential vulnerabilities. Annabelle explained, "What sets us apart is that we offer in-depth sector knowledge and specialist expertise, gained through continually changing technical and threat environment. It is essential to understand the distinction of the cyber security needs in the electric sector and OT environment as compared to the IT environment, and Nevermore Security has significant experience in this field."

For more information relating to Nevermore Security's cybersecurity offering, visit https://www.nevermoresecurity.com/

An article on the company can be found on the Business Worldwide website

Cyber Resilience for the Energy Sector

About Business Worldwide Magazine

Business Worldwide Magazine is the leading source of business and dealmaker intelligence throughout the world. Our quarterly magazine and online news portal enables an established audience of corporate dealmakers to track the latest news, stories and developments affecting the international markets, corporate finance, business strategy and changes in legislation. This readership includes of CEO/CFO - Banks, Corporate Lawyers and Venture Capital/Private Equity Companies to name a few.

ContactDavid Jones Awards DepartmentE:david.jones@bwmonline.com

W:http://www.bwmonline.com

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Nevermore Security Named One of Business Worldwide Magazine's Most Innovative Companies to Watch 2019 - Yahoo Finance

Security leaders fear that quantum computing developments will outpace security technologies – Continuity Central

DetailsPublished: Wednesday, 11 December 2019 07:59

More than half (54 percent) of cyber security professionals have expressed concerns that quantum computing will outpace the development of security technologies, according to new research from the Neustar International Security Council (NISC). Keeping a watchful eye on developments, 74 percent of organizations said that they are paying close attention to the technologys evolution, with 21 percent already experimenting with their own quantum computing strategies.

A further 35 percent of experts claimed to be in the process of developing a quantum strategy, while just 16 percent said they were not yet thinking about it. This shift in focus comes as the vast majority (73 percent) of cyber security professionals expect advances in quantum computing to overcome legacy technologies, such as encryption, within the next five years. Almost all respondents (93 percent) believe the next-generation computers will overwhelm existing security technology, with just 7 percent under the impression that true quantum supremacy will never happen.

Despite expressing concerns that other technologies will be overshadowed, an overwhelming number (87 percent) of CISOs, CSOs, CTOs and security directors are excited about the potential positive impact of quantum computing. The remaining 13 percent were more cautious and under the impression that the technology would create more harm than good.

At the moment, we rely on encryption, which is possible to crack in theory, but impossible to crack in practice, precisely because it would take so long to do so, over timescales of trillions or even quadrillions of years, said Rodney Joffe, Chairman of NISC and Security CTO at Neustar. Without the protective shield of encryption, a quantum computer in the hands of a malicious actor could launch a cyber attack unlike anything weve ever seen.

For both todays major attacks, and also the small-scale, targeted threats that we are seeing more frequently, it is vital that IT professionals begin responding to quantum immediately. The security community has already launched a research effort into quantum-proof cryptography, but information professionals at every organization holding sensitive data should have quantum on their radar. Quantum computing's ability to solve our great scientific and technological challenges will also be its ability to disrupt everything we know about computer security. Ultimately, IT experts of every stripe will need to work to rebuild the algorithms, strategies, and systems that form our approach to cyber security, added Joffe.

http://www.nisc.neustar

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10 Machine Learning Techniques and their Definitions – AiThority

When one technology replaces another, its not easy to accurately ascertain how the new technology would impact our lives. With so much buzz around the modern applications of Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Data Science, it becomes difficult to track the developments of these technologies. Machine Learning, in particular, has undergone a remarkable evolution in recent years. Many Machine Learning (ML) techniques have come in the foreground recently, most of which go beyond the traditionally simple classifications of this highly scientific Data Science specialization.

Read More: Beyond RPA And Cognitive Document Automation: Intelligent Automation At Scale

Lets point out the top ML techniques that the industry leaders and investors are keenly following, their definition, and commercial application.

Perceptual Learning is the scientific technique of enabling AI ML algorithms with better perception abilities to categorize and differentiate spatial and temporal patterns in the physical world.

For humans, Perceptual Learning is mostly instinctive and condition-driven. It means humans learn perceptual skills without actual awareness. In the case of machines, these learning skills are mapped implicitly using sensors, mechanoreceptors, and connected intelligent machines.

Most AI ML engineering companies boast of developing and delivering AI ML models that run on an automated platform. They openly challenge the presence and need for a Data Scientist in the Engineering process.

Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) is defined as the fully automating the entire process of Machine Learning model development right up till the process of its application.

AutoML enables companies to leverage AI ML models in an automated environment without truly seeking the involvement and supervision of Data Scientists, AI Engineers or Analysts.

Google, Baidu, IBM, Amazon, H2O, and a bunch of other technology-innovation companies already offer a host of AutoML environment for many commercial applications. These applications have swept into every possible business in every industry, including in Healthcare, Manufacturing, FinTech, Marketing and Sales, Retail, Sports and more.

Bayesian Machine Learning is a unique specialization within AI ML projects that leverage statistical models along with Data Science techniques. Any ML technique that uses the Bayes Theorem and Bayesian statistical modeling approach in Machine Learning fall under the purview of Bayesian Machine Learning.

The contemporary applications of Bayesian ML involves the use of open-source coding platform Python. Unique applications include

A good ML program would be expected to perpetually learn to perform a set of complex tasks. This learning mechanism is understood from the specialized branch of AI ML techniques, called Meta-Learning.

The industry-wide definition for Meta-Learning is the ability to learn and generalize AI into different real-world scenarios encountered during the ML training time, using specific volume and variety of data.

Meta-Learning techniques can be further differentiated into three categories

In each of these categories, there is a unique learner, meta-learner, and vectors with labels that match Data-Time-Spatial vectors into a set of networking processes to weigh real-world scenarios labeled with context and inferences.

All the recent Image Processing and Voice Search techniques use the Meta-Learning techniques for their outcomes.

Adversarial ML is one of the fastest-growing and most sophisticated of all ML techniques. It is defined as the ML technique adopted to test and validate the effectiveness of any Machine Learning program in an adverse situation.

As the name suggests, its the antagonistic principle of genuine AI, but used nonetheless to test the veracity of any ML technique when it encounters a unique, adverse situation. It is mostly used to fool an ML model into doubting its own results, thereby leading to a malfunction.

Most ML models are capable of generating answer for one single parameter. But, can it be used to answer for x (unknown or variable) parameter. Thats where the Causal Inference ML techniques comes into play.

Most AI ML courses online are teaching Causal inference as a core ML modeling technique. Causal inference ML technique is defined as the causal reasoning process to draw a unique conclusion based on the impact variables and conditions have on the outcome. This technique is further categorized into Observational ML and Interventional ML, depending on what is driving the Causal Inference algorithm.

Also commercially popularized as Explainable AI (X AI), this technique involves the use of neural networking and interpretation models to make ML structures more easily understood by humans.

Deep Learning Interpretability is defined as the ML specialization to remove black boxes in AI models, providing decision-makers and data officers to understand data modeling structures and legally permit the use of AI ML for general purposes.

The ML technique may use one or more of these techniques for Deep Learning Interpretation.

Any data can be accurately plotted using graphs. In Machine Learning techniques, a graph is a data structure consisting of two components, Vertices (or nodes) and Edges.

Graph ML networks is a specialized ML technique used to connect problems with edges and graphs. Graph Neural Networks (NNs) give rise to the category of Connected NNs (CNSS) and AI NNs (ANN).

There are at least 50 more ML techniques that could be learned and deployed using various NN models and systems. Click here to know of the leading ML companies that are constantly transforming Data Science applications with AI ML techniques.

(To share your insights about ML techniques and commercial applications, please write to us at info@aithority.com)

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Google is using machine learning to make alarm tones based on the time and weather – The Verge

Google has an update that might make you hate your alarm a little bit less: a new feature lets it automatically change up what your alarm plays based on the time of day and the weather, theoretically playing something slightly more appropriate than the same awful song you hear day in and out. At least, itll be nice as long as youre okay with waking up to AI-generated piano.

The feature is confined to a single device for now: Lenovos Smart Clock, a small smart display that basically has the functionality of a Google Home Mini paired with a screen that can show the time and weather. Google says this feature which it calls Impromptu is part of Google Assistant, though, which suggests it should reach other smart displays, and perhaps even phones, in the future. The announcement doesnt say when or whether itll expand, however.

Google says all of the music is created and chosen by Magenta, an open-source music tool built around machine learning that Google has been creating. In a blog post, Google says the system might select this song if the weather is below 50 degrees (Im assuming Fahrenheit) and early in the morning. I dont know exactly what about this song says cool and pre-dawn, but Id be down to listen to anything other than the default alarm tone that Ive heard every day for years.

The feature is rolling out globally today to Lenovos device. The smart clock, which used to retail for $80, now appears to be down to $50, making it a lot more competitive with Amazons $60 Echo Show 5.

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Google is using machine learning to make alarm tones based on the time and weather - The Verge

Appearance of proteins used to predict function with machine learning – Drug Target Review

Researchers have used a machine-learning algorithm to study protein appearance and discover common features that influence function, which could be used to design artificial cells.

Researchers at EPFL have developed a new way to predict a protein's interactions with other proteins and biomolecules and its biochemical activity, merely by observing its surface (credit: Laura Persat / 2019 EPFL).

A new machine learning-driven technique has been able to predict the interactions between proteins and describe biochemical activity based on surface appearance.

The study was conducted at the Laboratory of Protein Design & Immunoengineering (LPDI), Switzerland, in collaboration with other researchers.

According to the team, the method, known as MaSIF, could support the development of protein-based components for artificial cells in novel therapeutics.

Scientists have developed a new way to predict a proteins interactions with other proteins and biomolecules and its biochemical activity, merely by observing its surface (credit: Laura Persat / 2019 EPFL).

The researchers took a vast set of protein surface data and fed the chemical and geometric properties into a machine-learning algorithm, training it to match these properties with particular behaviour patterns and activity. They used the remaining data to test the algorithm.

By scanning the surface of a protein, our method can define a fingerprint, which can then be compared across proteins, says Pablo Gainza, the first author of the study.

The team found that proteins performing similar interactions share common features.

The algorithm can analyse billions of protein surfaces per second, says LPDI director Bruno Correia. Our research has significant implications for artificial protein design, allowing us to program a protein to behave a certain way merely by altering its surface chemical and geometric properties.

The method could also be used to analyse the surface structure of other types of molecules, say the researchers.

The findings were published in Nature Methods.

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Scientists are using machine learning algos to draw maps of 10 billion cells from the human body to fight cancer – The Register

AI algorithms are helping scientists map ten billion cells from the human body in an attempt to unlock the mysteries of how life emerges from the embryo, or how diseases like cancer manifest.

Dana Peer, the current chair and professor in computational and systems biology at the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, a research lab focused cancer treatment in New York, described machine learning as a toolbox for building the Human Cell Atlas. The project aims to turn data from billions of tissue sample cells into 3D maps so scientists can visualize our bodies down at the smallest units.

Life develops from a single embryo. How does that initial cell go on to produce nearly 40 trillion cells to form a human body that is able to move and think?

The process can be largely described by cell differentiation, where a stem cell morphs into a specialized unit that carries out a vital function for a particular organ. Genetic information stored in DNA and encoded into every cell carries instructions on how to build different cell types for the body.

Although scientists broadly understand the process, theyre still perplexed at how it works down at the cellular level.

Cells are like tiny computers that get input from their environment, signals [and nutrients] from other cells, Peer said on stage during the Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems in Vancouver on Tuesday.

They have all sorts of proteins that are their processing devices. They make decisions, they interact with each other due to their biochemistry and molecular biology, and decide whether theyre going to proliferate, make more copies of themselves, differentiate, enter a new cell type, activate, or release some molecule to talk with another cell. Theyre really like little computers and we want to know how they work.

The problem with studying cells is, however, the sheer amount of data they produce. The genetic code describing the RNA in cells from one tissue sample is represented as a series of numbers in a giant matrix. At first glance these matrices dont make much sense but they can be turned into 3D maps with the help of AI algorithms.

Common machine learning techniques and models like t-SNE, k-nearest neighbors, Markov chains, or even deep learning have allowed biologists to visualize the behavior of cells. The jumbled stream of numbers describing a cell can now be represented as a clear graph that clusters the data by cell type and function.

Scientists have managed to trace the source of acute lymphoblastic leukemia, the most common cancer in children, to a rare cell type that only crops up in seven out of 10,000 cells. Peer described how data visualization has also allowed researchers to discover how a single mutation in a pancreatic cell can lead to cancer.

The mutation tricks the immune system and it can no longer defend our bodies against cancer. All the knowledge gleaned from these visualizations can help scientists develop new drugs and methods that target diseases like cancer and speed up the process of clinical trials.

Peer hopes that by building the Human Cell Atlas, itll serve as a healthy reference for mapping disease. She called it a candy land playground for biologists. But although machine learning algorithms have already had a huge impact, the techniques are more successful in modelling common patterns in data rather than highlighting any anomalous behaviors.

Our goal is not to predict but understand, and in biology, the outlier is often the most important.

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Scientists are using machine learning algos to draw maps of 10 billion cells from the human body to fight cancer - The Register

The NFL And Amazon Want To Transform Player Health Through Machine Learning – Forbes

The NFL and Amazon announced an expansion of their partnership at their annual AWS re:Invent ... [+] conference in Las Vegas that will use artificial intelligence and machine learning to combat player injuries. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

Injury prevention in sports is one of the most important issues facing a number of leagues. This is particularly true in the NFL, due to the brutal nature of that punishing sport, which leaves many players sidelined at some point during the season. A number of startups are utilizing technology to address football injury issues, specifically limiting the incidence of concussions. Now, one of the largest companies in the world is working with the league in these efforts.

A week after partnering with the Seattle Seahawks on its machine learning/artificial intelligence offerings, Amazon announced a partnership Thursday in which the technology giant will use those same tools to combat football injuries. Amazon has been involved with the league, with its Next Gen Stats partnership, and now the two companies will work to advance player health and safety as the sport moves forward after its 100th season this year. Amazons AWS cloud services will use its software to analyze large volumes of player health data the league is already collecting. It will also scan video images with the objective of helping teams treat injuries and rehabilitate players more effectively. The larger goal will be to create a new Digital Athlete platform to anticipate injury before it even takes place.

This partnership expands the quickly growing relationship between the NFL and Amazon/AWS. as the two have already teamed up for two years with the leagues Thursday Night Football games streamed on the companys Amazon Prime Video platform. Amazon paid $130 million for rights that run through next season. The league also uses AWSs ML Solutions Lab,as well as Amazons SageMaker platform, that enables data scientists and developers to build and develop machine learning models that can also lead to the leagues ultimate goal of predicting and limiting player injury.

The NFL is committed to re-imagining the future of football, said NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell. When we apply next-generation technology to advance player health and safety, everyone wins from players to clubs to fans. The outcomes of our collaboration with AWS and what we will learn about the human body and how injuries happen could reach far beyond football. As we look ahead to our next 100 seasons, were proud to partner with AWS in that endeavor.

The new initiative was announced as part of Amazons AWS re:Invent conference in Las Vegas on Thursday. Among the technologies that AWS and the league announced in its Digital Athlete platform is a computer-simulated model of an NFL player that will model infinite scenarios within NFL gameplay in order to identify a game environment that limits the risk to a player. Digital Athlete uses Amazons full arsenal of technologies, including the AI, ML and computer vision technology that is used with Amazons Rekognition tool and that uses enormous data sets encompassing historical and more modern video to identify a wide variety of solutions, including the prediction of player injury.

By leveraging the breadth and depth of AWS services, the NFL is growing its leadership position in driving innovation and improvements in health and player safety, which is good news not only for NFL players but also for athletes everywhere, said Andy Jassy, CEO of AWS. This partnership represents an opportunity for the NFL and AWS to develop new approaches and advanced tools to prevent injury, both in and potentially beyond football.

These announcements come at a time when more NFL players are utilizing their large platforms to bring awareness to injuries and the enormous impact those injuries have on their bodies. Former New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski has been one of the most productive NFL players at his position in league history but he had to retire from the league this year, at the age of 29, due to a rash of injuries.

The future Hall of Fame player estimated that he suffered probably 20 concussions in his football career. These admissions have significant consequences on youth participation rates in the sport. Partnerships like the one announced yesterday will need to be successful in order for the sport to remain on solid footing heading into the new decade.

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The NFL And Amazon Want To Transform Player Health Through Machine Learning - Forbes

Deutsche Banks Massive Multi-Trillion Dollar By 2030 …

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have been written off by many as nothing more than a flash-in-the-pan fad, riddled with scams and criminals.

The bitcoin price, which looks set to close the year at twice its January price, has remained highly volatilewhile sluggish bitcoin adoption continues to worry those in the crypto industry.

Now, amid warnings that the "fragile" fiat currency system will be put under strain in years ahead, Germany's troubled Deutsche Bank has asked, "will fiat currencies survive," in what it calls the "multi-trillion dollar (or bitcoin) question."

Could bitcoin take over the world by 2030? Deutsche Bank analysts think it's not outside the realms ... [+] of possibility.

"The forces that have held the current fiat system together now look fragile and they could unravel in the 2020s," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid wrote in a report looking at 24 alternative ideas for the next 10 years.

"If so, that will start to lead to a backlash against fiat money and demand for alternative currencies, such as gold or crypto could soar. The demand for alternative currencies will therefore likely be significantly higher by the time 2030 rolls around."

The report blamed "decades of low labor costs" and inflation for weakening the fiat system and comes after a year that's seen the bitcoin price boosted by social media giant Facebook's plans to launch its own private cryptocurrency, dubbed libra, and countries from China to the European Union begin to explore how to create digital currencies of their own.

Central banks are still struggling to offset the effects of the global financial crisis that birthed bitcoin, with worries another so-far-unidentified crisis could be looming on the horizon.

"Will fiat currencies survive the policy dilemma that authorities will experience as they try to balance higher yields with record levels of debt," Reid asked. "Thats the multi-trillion dollar (or bitcoin) question for the decade ahead."

Bitcoin is often touted as an antidote to the central bank, debt-based monetary system, picking up the moniker "digital gold" for its built in scarcity. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoin, with the supply drying up in the distant year of 2140.

Reid's comments put him at odds with outgoing European Central Bank executive board member Benot Cur, who last year described bitcoin as "the evil spawn of the financial crisis," and has outlined plans for a European "central bank digital currency" to rival the likes of Facebook's libra.

Deutsche Bank, which has seen its value cut by 90% in the ten years since bitcoin was created, has also predicted corporate and government banked cryptocurrencies will drive crypto adoption.

"Assuming governments back cryptocurrencies, and consumers want them, adoption rates will drive the timeline for mainstream use," Reid wrote. "If current trends continue, there could be 200 million blockchain wallet users in 2030."

Deutsche Bank has forecast there could be more than 200 million bitcoin and cryptocurrency users ... [+] around the world by 2030.

Meanwhile, other banks are warning that the year ahead could bring an overhaul of the "status quo."

We see 2020 as a year where at nearly every turn, disruption of the status quo is an overriding theme," Saxo Bank's chief economist Steen Jakobsen wrote this week in a report titled "10 Outrageous Predictions for 2020."

"The year could represent one big pendulum swing to opposites in politics, monetary and fiscal policy and, not least, the environment. In policy making, it could mean that central banks step aside and maybe even slightly normalize rates, while governments step into the breach with infrastructure and climate policy-linked spending."

Stay informed and ahead of the crowd with Forbes Crypto Confidential, a free weekly e-letter delivered to your inbox. Sign up today.

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This Bitcoin Rival Just Crashed By A Shocking 70% In An Hour [Update] – Forbes

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are well known to be highly volatile but a sudden 70% plunge in under one hour is extreme even for the scandal and scam-ridden crypto market.

Matic, a digital token used on the blockchain scalability-focused Matic Network, suddenly crashed around 70% last night, before a slight recovery.

[Update: 7:15pm December 11 2019] Matic failed to make up ground during today's trading, with the cryptocurrency now priced at $0.017 per token. The fall in the matic price may have boosted one of its closest rivals, chainlink, which is up almost 10% on the day to $2.28.

The reason for the collapse in the matic price, which dropped to $0.013 from $0.042 in under an hour, was not immediately clear though the chief executive of popular bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange Binance, Changpeng Zhao, took to Twitter to reassure matic users.

Traders and investors have been scrambling to find out the reason behind the sudden price collapse, ... [+] with concerns it could spread to bitcoin and other major tokens.

"Our team is still investigating the data, but it's already clear that the matic team has nothing to do with it," Changpeng Zhao, who's often known simply as CZ, said.

"A number of big traders panicked, causing a cycle. Going to be a tough call on how much an exchange should interfere with people's trading."

Meanwhile, the cofounder and chief operations officer of the Matic Network, Sandeep Nailwal, said he is investigating the cause.

"It will be clear very shortly that we are not behind this, as some [fear, uncertainty, and doubt] accounts are trying to insinuate," Nailwal said.

"We will post a detailed analysis and we will come out stronger than ever from this evident manipulation."

The bitcoin price, as well as the wider cryptocurrency market, has not been hit by the sudden matic sell-off with prices of other major tokens relatively flat across the board.

One popular bitcoin and cryptocurrency commentator and trader, Alex Krger, highlighted matic's rise and fall over recent weeks as "the stuff of dreams and nightmares."

"What happened with matic can happen to any token," Krger said via Twitter.

"It would be very surprising for it to happen to the large caps, but it can still happen. Adjust selling volume by market cap or order book liquidity, and presto. Hence why crypto is traders paradise, investors hell," Krger said, adding there's currently an "apocalypse" going on with minor cryptocurrencies.

The matic price began a huge bull run towards the end of November, breaking away from the wider ... [+] bitcoin and cryptocurrency market.

Matic has soared over recent weeks and recorded a market capitalization of over $100 million for the first time since its launch earlier this yearup 180% in just two weeks.

The matic price has reportedly been boosted recently by blockchain-based game Battle Racers launching a range of so-called crypto-collectibles on the Matic Network sidechain, sending the price up by around 10% in a 24-hour trading period last week.

Meanwhile, some matic investors and traders have speculated the sudden move lower could be the result of a so-called pump and dump, where a large buyer inflates the price over time before offloading their holdings, or an exit scam, where the developers of a digital asset suddenly sell their holdings and abandon the project.

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This Bitcoin Rival Just Crashed By A Shocking 70% In An Hour [Update] - Forbes

What The Charts Say About Bitcoin – Forbes

DedMityay - stock.adobe.com

Ah, Bitcoin. The stuff of dreams. The new frontier in currency and commerce. The gateway to a world dominated by blockchain technology, with newly-minted zillionaires lining of streets of urban and rural sites across the globe. Or, the speculative arm of a legitimate evolution of financial transactions.

Now, before you get all defensive about how amazing Bitcoin is, and tell me how out of touch I am (after all, at age 55, I am way too old to understand this stuff, right?), hear me out. I do see the role of blockchain technology in the global economy going forward.

However, I think of Bitcoin, the most famous of crypto-currencies, like Band-Aids are to adhesive bandages (hint: same thing, but one is a brand name, the other is just what the product is). Bitcoin is the proverbial poster-child for this new way to hold money. That is all fine with me. My point, though: just dont pretend it is a substitute for traditional hard currencies. Not yet, anyway.

My evidence for that statement: the price of Bitcoin is not at all stable. Its price is more volatile than most stocks. You wouldnt take the money you need to pay this months mortgage or buy food for your familys dinners this week, and put it in an S&P 500 Index Fund, would you? Actually, I am afraid of the answer from too many investors. But I digress. The point is that Bitcoin still appears to be a trading tool (toy?), rather than a store of value, which is the textbook definition of a stable asset.

For that reason, I refuse to look at Bitcoin as a currency when following its price movement. However, as a vehicle to trade to make profit on over periods of time, I see it the way I see stocks and ETFs: as something to chart, and to evaluate its reward/risk trade-off at any point in time.

And, while I have not yet invested Bitcoin for my clients or myself, I am willing to consider it if it meets my usual investment criteria. One of those is that it can be charted.

^NYB_technical_chart

Remember that time when Bitcoin ran up to seemingly impossible heights, then dipped below 8,000, then crashed to under 4,000? Above, you see the price of Bitcoin over the past couple of years. It shows that last dizzying episode from 2018. And to me, it appears to be setting up for a repeat performance.

Now, technical analysis (charting) is more precise when there is deeper data and history behind the price activity. With Bitcoins limited history as a popular asset, and the fact that it is not a business like a stock, we have less to work with than we would with a stock or commodity. However, if you look at the right side of the chart, you see an orange line. That line is falling, and it is close to falling below the red line. This is occurring while Bitcoin is quietly in the midst of repeating its early 2018 price pattern.

That last round of Bitcoin price drama had a similar pattern, as you can see in May of 2018. At that point, the orange line (which is the 50-day moving average of Bitcoins price) crossed below the 200-day moving average (the red line), just as it is poised to do now. That death cross as chart geeks often call it, is happening now at about the same Bitcoin price level (8,200) as it did then.

I dont know, but I wouldnt simply blow it off as a coincidence. After all, the downside risk of ignoring the chart pattern in Bitcoin was about $5,000. Bitcoin fell from that 8,200 level to about 3,250 at its December, 2018 low, before quadrupling in value 7 months later.

And that brings me back to my main point: Bitcoin is not an investment at this stage of its development as a marketable security. Neither are small marijuana companies, and penny stocks. They are trading tools for virtual rooms of speculators. It is somewhere between a casino and the latest version of the greater fool theory, where you can profit from owning it as long as someone is willing to buy it from you. I would insert an analogy to tulip bulbs here, but suffice it to say, just look that up yourself.

Last point: one of my personal investment tenets, and what I say to clients who tell me they are investing in Bitcoin or some other trading toy, is this: its OK to take big shots, as long as you do it with small amounts of money. Just dont confuse speculation with investing.

Comments provided are informational only, not individual investment advice or recommendations. Sungarden provides Advisory Services through Dynamic Wealth Advisors

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What The Charts Say About Bitcoin - Forbes