4 Reasons Why Bitcoin Is Now Retesting November Lows $6.4K Next? – Cointelegraph

On Monday Bitcoin price (BTC) abruptly fell below the $7,040 support and dropped to $6,800. As recent as Nov. 22 and Nov. 27, $6,800 served as support so a number of traders had already identified the price as the point where Bitcoin would land if the price pulled back.

Cryptocurrency market daily overview. Source: Coin360

At the time of writing Bitcoin is struggling to hold $6,600 and if the current level fails to hold, traders will look for the price to follow the familiar pattern of dropping to the long-term descending channel trendline support at $6,400. Lets take a look at several technical reasons why BTC/USD is now eyeing a new 7-month low.

As mentioned by Cointelegraph analyst Keith Wareing, BTC is resoundingly bearish on multiple time frames.

Moreover, yesterdays downside move produced a bear cross on the monthly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) for the first time since June when the signal line crossed above the MACD line.

The monthly MACD histogram also flipped negative, suggesting that further downside could be in store for Bitcoin.

BTC USD MACD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Another disconcerting sign on the daily time frame is a bearish cross between the 100-day and 200-day moving average, something which according to the chart below does not happen often.

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe also shows that the relative strength index (RSI) has dipped into oversold territory and the lack of follow-through from traders buying into the dip means a strong oversold bounce has yet to occur.

The last time Bitcoin price dipped to $6,522, the RSI dropped to 22 so if the sell-off resumes, the RSI could easily drop to this level again.

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

A revisit to the descending channel lower support at $6,400 is not exactly disastrous for Bitcoin price. Traders who analyze the weekly timeframe will remember that Bitcoin traded in the $6K region for nearly 8 months prior to the November 2018 drop to $3,100.

Furthermore, seasoned traders will recall that every Tom, Dick and Harry had called $6K the bottom prior to the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) hard fork debacle in November 2018, which may have been one of the reasons for the unexpected drop to $3K.

BTC USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

As shown by the volume profile visible range (VPVR) on the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has support to about $6,300 then below $6,200 the price could swiftly drop to $5,350 where support was built on Bitcoins parabolic move from $3,120 in February.

BTC USD weekly RSI chart. Source: TradingView

The RSI on the weekly timeframe is at 39.6 and slowly creeping toward oversold territory.The last time the weekly RSI was oversold was on Dec. 10 when the price was $3,160 and Jan. 21 at $3,425.

While the analysis is not calling for a drop to $5,300 or $4,100, Bitcoins price action on multiple time frames suggests further downside so its crucial to be realistic and honest, rather than driven by emotion and hope.

On the bright side, theres always the possibility that the price could form a double bottom at $6,520, a point that was seen on Nov. 25 and May 17, 2019.

Ultimately, Bitcoin price needs to hold the pink highlighted zone between $6,700 and $6,300 to avoid a drop back toward the May through April lows in the $4,900 to $5,500 region.

In the meantime, traders should keep an eye out for a possible double bottom around $6,530 and given that the daily and weekly RSI and Stoch are oversold, aggressive traders might look to play an oversold bounce, which seems ripe to take place as Bitcoin comes closer to falling below the long-term descending channel support at $6,400.

Cautious traders can observe to see how traders and price react to this oversold bounce (if it even happens), and they can also watch to see if the daily RSI becomes deeply oversold to form a double bottom at 22.

A relatively risk-free trade might involve playing a bounce at $6,500 to $6,400 with a stop loss placed closely below the entry. If this tactic proves fruitless, then the next option might be setting up a low leveraged long at $5,300 or at least looking to play a deeply oversold bounce at this price.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author (@HorusHughes) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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4 Reasons Why Bitcoin Is Now Retesting November Lows $6.4K Next? - Cointelegraph

BitGo Warns Users to Withdraw Bitcoin SV Over Hard Fork Threat to Wallets – Coindesk

A major code update for the cryptocurrency bitcoin SV (for Satoshi's vision) will render some features of BitGo's wallets useless, the crypto custodian says.

In a blog update on Wednesday, "Murch," a software engineer at the firm, said the Genesis hard fork scheduled for Feb. 4, 2020, would usher in a new consensus mechanism making BitGo's BSV wallets unable to receive payments.

Specifically, the post stated:

"This consensus rule change will make Pay-to-Script-Hash (P2SH) outputs invalid. Since BitGos BSV wallets use P2SH-based multi-signature addresses, the protocol change will render BitGo BSV wallets unable to receive funds."

This means that, following the hard fork, funds in these wallets will still be spendable and BSV can be sent from the wallets. However, sending BSV to a wallet will produce an invalid transaction even if it's a BitGo wallet sending "change" back to itself, said Murch.

Customers holding the cryptocurrency itself a fork of the bitcoin blockchain are advised to either exchange their BSV into bitcoin, or withdraw their coins to an external wallet before the fork.

"If you continue holding BSV in your BitGo wallet after February 4th, you will only be able to sweep the wallet and most functionality will be disabled," Murch wrote.

BitGo stores billions of dollars in cryptocurrency for clients such as institutional investors and exchanges. The firm recently claimed it's processing over 20 percent of all bitcoin transactions.

In 2018, BitGo was approved in the U.S. to act as a qualified custodian for digital assets.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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BitGo Warns Users to Withdraw Bitcoin SV Over Hard Fork Threat to Wallets - Coindesk

It’s Not Just the Money, It’s the People in Bitcoin: Anil Lulla – Coindesk

This post is part of CoinDesk's 2019 Year in Review, a collection of 100 op-eds, interviews and takes on the state of blockchain and the world. Anil Lulla is a co-founder of Delphi Digital, a research and consulting boutique specializing in digital assets.

Anil Lulla co-founded Delphi Digital in mid-2018 with four friends he met while working at Bloomberg and Deutsche Bank. Their idea: to provide credible, actionable research for an industry populated by noisy clout-chasers and ensnaring scammers.

When I left my job, my managing director literally didnt understand why I was leaving for fake internet money, Lulla said. In a way, this goodbye proved his thesis that there wasnt anything anyone could point to to explain the value proposition of bitcoin, he said.

While I personally buy into the crypto ethos, were not selling anarchist thoughts, just offering perspective on why should you pay attention: because crypto is a great investment opportunity.

More than a year later, Lulla reflects on the intricacies of the market, how a background analyzing distressed debt can help one understand the token industry, and why crypto will always be infinitely more interesting than real money.

Has this past years cycle from bust to boom to bust revealed anything new about how BTC operates?

This cycle has been interesting to see from a crypto fund perspective, which use bitcoin as both an investment and beta. We saw the thesis of bitcoins market supremacy play out in real time in the first two quarters, as bitcoin continued to get all the attention and alt-bagholders saw their satoshis disappear. The headlines and investment interest flowing back in proves the reflexivity of the market. Its also interesting to consider over the past 12 months where every incremental dollar was added in the market. While some was new money, most was sitting on the sidelines from people who had sold their positions and were waiting to come back in.

Whats the deal with technical analysis? What does it actually tell you, if anything?

At Delphi, we dont use TA as much as fundamentals, though weve added a little more because it's a traders market. If it can help execute trades accurately 60 percent of the time, its worth it. But we think bitcoins real advantages over traditional assets for market analysis is on-chain indicators. My partner Yan led our UTXO analysis which was used to call the bottom of the market by looking at HODL waves, or when certain massive hodlers start selling. Its a way to help predict when people will take cash off the table based on their potential returns and selling pressure.

How has the addition of institutional holders affected bitcoin?

Its a slow change, but we think Bakkt and Fidelity will be huge for the market long term. My team laughed at the focus given to Bakkts launch, and the reaction once it didnt move the needle the first week. The benefit of these products isnt from short term inflows of capital, but that credible brands are making long-term investments because they view crypto as a long-term project. This allows traditional investors to take risks they wouldnt otherwise with the latest crypto unicorn.

The amount of capital coming in also includes human capital.

Does Delphi get any crossover from traditional finance?

Whenever you have volatility in the market, we have people crossing over from that side of the market. They may not actually be interested in making an allocation, but funds may have clients who see bitcoin spike and ask them why they are not allocated to that asset, or at least wonder whats going on. Most conversations revolve around bitcoin. At a macro view, a lot of the people who look at the market seriously are starting to understand the value proposition of bitcoin beyond being a store of value.

If 2019 was year of bitcoin, where does that leave tokens or ICO projects for 2020?

Next year will see a lot of layer ones launching. But, the reality is a lot of token projects need help figuring out their economic or governance structures. Meanwhile, a lot of the projects that raised during the 2017 craze have essentially become distressed assets. That doesnt necessarily mean theyre dead projects. One of cryptos biggest value propositions is how quickly developments can happen. Maybe the biggest is changes on ethereum. We werent even aware of the real efficiency gains of Optimistic Rollups until Vitalik published a blog post. These things come from long periods of hard work and then, to the general public, they seem to come out of nowhere.

Sometimes I cringe at comparisons between crypto and the early days of e-commerce, just because of the investment activity. In the 90s, every website was an iteration of the same basic website, but with crypto its a constant evolution.

The amount of capital coming in also includes human capital. Its amazing to see what people are creating. The easiest way to talk about crypto is that its dis-intermediating middlemen while organizing or incentivizing groups to work together. Instadapp. Uniswap. The composability between projects is incredible. Things like that are why I think this sector will ultimately produce things that are valuable and give mainstream audience no choice but to participate. It's something Im willing to bet my career on.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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It's Not Just the Money, It's the People in Bitcoin: Anil Lulla - Coindesk

Snowball: The Effort to Bring Privacy to Every Bitcoin Wallet – CoinDesk

Developer Ben Woosley was watching the Hong Kong protesters when he saw something interesting: They were using Bluetooth technology to dodge the internet, allowing them to create a mesh network for organizing and messaging while avoiding intrusion.

To create their mesh, the protestors used an app and software development kit, or SDK, called Bridgefy to bypass normal Internet connections. Woosley wondered about the implications of this decentralized, disconnected technology for bitcoin. The problem, he found, was that even though crypto was theoretically resistant to censorship, in practice it was easy to knock out the network by turning off the internet.

To solve this, Woosley created a Bluetooth-based network, Snowball, to make it easier to make private bitcoin transactions, and based his technology on the concept of CoinJoins.

CoinJoins?

CoinJoins are one of the main bitcoin privacy technologies. They are used to scramble several transactions together to hide all parties' tracks. The Wasabi bitcoin wallet makes CoinJoins easy to use but, since CoinJoins are more difficult and expensive than normal bitcoin transactions, they only make up a small portion of the total bitcoin transactions despite having been around for years.

Woosley wants to try to make privacy easier with a variant of CoinJoins called PayJoins.

"That's the main element of the project, making PayJoins easy, where you don't need to need to know that they're occurring," he said.

The goal is to get the technology to "snowball" ensuring that every transaction will at least have the option of traversing the mesh network if the internet is unavailable.

How it works

It all started in a blockchain hackathon in Wyoming. Woolsey was there because of a "fascination with cowboy culture." Woosley and fellow bitcoin developer Justin Moon teamed up for the multi-day event and explored what kind of product they wanted to make.

"Bluetooth is the most commonly available wireless technology, in every phone. The ubiquity of Bluetooth makes it a good target for this," Woosley said.

The pair considered other technologies but abandoned them after a bit of research. Another wireless technology, NFC, wasn't as widespread because it's only supported in Android smartphones. But once it has Bluetooth in a stable place, the team might try to work on making Snowball compatible with these other types of technologies, Woosley said.

In the end, Woolsey and team used a tech called Pay to EndPoint or P2EP., a year-old idea for achieving bitcoin privacy. Instead of requiring a bunch of people to make a transaction at the same time, as is done with CoinJoins, the tech only requires the sender and the receiver to mix transactions.

They chose to use P2EP because it improves security in two ways. First, users don't have to find another person trying to make a transaction at the same time. Second, it might be even more private than regular CoinJoins since it makes the fact that you're using a mixer to hide transaction history much less obvious.

For developers like Woosley, it's important to make private transactions easier for a couple of reasons.

"It's a property that impacts everyone. But it's a public good in a sense. As more people make private transactions, it increases the privacy of everyone else," he said.

Plus, Woosley wants to "undermine Chainalysis people." Right now, it's not so hard to figure out what transactions are owned by which people by using "blockchain analysis," or looking through the history of bitcoin transactions to find patterns.

Further, experts worry bitcoin's transparent transaction history could hurt its chances of becoming a serious currency. One crucial property of money is "fungibility," the idea that every coin is worth the same amount as every other coin.

The risk with bitcoin is some coins could become tainted by a past crime and be rendered useless.

"The coin might be associated with some event that happened a long time ago," Woosley said. "It's possible to scrutinize coins to see if it's gonna be spendable based on outside rules like what the government thinks. It undermines using bitcoin. It's a significant risk to any user."

Hurdles to adoption

However, it might not be so easy to make private bitcoin transactions simple. One big hurdle with P2EP, as well as Snowball, is that both the sender and the receiver need to adopt the technology in order to communicate.

In addition, some experts question whether it's the best way forward for private bitcoin transactions. P2EP has been around for a year, but it hasn't gained much traction.

"It's not hard to see why P2EP and PayJoin doesn't really see any adoption. Every implementation is limited. JoinMarket only for JoinMarket users, BustaPay only for merchants, Snowball only for smartphones," said Adam Fiscor, developer of Wasabi, a leading privacy-minded bitcoin wallet that uses normal CoinJoins. He went so far as to say privacy wallet Samourai's technology is for "idiots." He and Samourai were involved in a public spat earlier this year about the different approaches in privacy technologies they've taken.

Woosley hopes Snowball will expand into a more pliable standard. He argues the key ingredient it has that other projects don't is they're trying to make it "effortless" for wallets to implement.

As such, the team is looking for a developer to help build out an app that works for Android devices.

Once they're done with that, they'll open "pull requests" to wallets to try to help them to adopt the changes. "The integration effort should be pretty modest," Woosley said. In all, his hope is that adoption to start with a flurry and roll into a storm.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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Snowball: The Effort to Bring Privacy to Every Bitcoin Wallet - CoinDesk

Bitcoin Just Dropped Below $6,500: Why Its Risking a Big Fall to $5,000 – newsBTC

Bitcoin risks plunging to its eight-month low after closing below a crucial support level earlier last week and dropping to the $6,400s.

The benchmark cryptocurrency invalidated its 50-weekly moving average support for the first time since May 2018. The historical level confirmed bitcoins long-term bullish bias in periods when the price was trending above it.

Conversely, it alarmed traders about imminent bearish corrections when the price slipped below it.

The role of 50-period MA in bitcoins recent price behaviors | Source: TradingView.com, Coinbase

The last time bitcoin closed below the 50-weekly MA had resulted in a price drop of approx 61.39 percent. On the other hand, when the cryptocurrency broke above the MA, it rallied by as much as 161.79 percent to the upside (data from Coinbase).

With bitcoin dropping below the 50-weekly MA, the sentiment for an extended downside move is increasing in the long-term.

The latest breakdown has brought the cryptocurrencys 200-weekly moving average in view as the next potential downside target. It is largely because of the levels historical significance while capping bitcoins wild bearish move from flourishing in December 2018.

The 200-weekly MA assisted the cryptocurrency in bottoming out near $3,120 last year. After that, its price surged by as much as 343.24 percent towards a $13,868.44 top. So it appears, the MA could again behave as support to bitcoins ongoing downside attempts.

The next potential bottom for bitcoin | Source: TradingView.com, Coinbase

As of the time of this writing, the 200-weekly MA sits near $5,026.38.

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), which evaluates bitcoins overbought or oversold conditions based on certain numerical readings, appears in line with the possibility of an extended breakdown.

The current RSI reading is 40, which shows bitcoin is only ten points away from becoming an oversold asset. The journey from 40 to 30 coincides with the cryptocurrencys move from the current price to that of the 200-weekly MA.

The weekly RSI readings also hint a potential bottom formation | Source: TradingView.com

The RSI downtrend also indicates a potential reversal near 30 based on historical behaviors. That further validates 200-weekly MA as the level that could serve as bottom to bitcoins current downtrend.

[Disclaimer:Cryptocurrency trading involves ample risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. All trading strategies are used at your own risk.]

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Bitcoin Just Dropped Below $6,500: Why Its Risking a Big Fall to $5,000 - newsBTC

Bitcoin Price in 2020: Bloomberg Analyst Predicts That $10,000 Is More Likely Than $5,000 – U.Today

The HEX token project came to existence in early December this year. It calls itself a DLT certificate of depositwith yields over the Ethereum chain.

The website of the project does not provide any specific description of details how the technology works. However, it promises fast and large profits and says that the more people participate the better it will be for all investors.

Image viahex.win

Fast and large yields promised and calls to preach the Gospel to new participants have always been immediate signs of a scam.

Now, the founder of IOTA, David Sonstebo, the Weiss Ratings agency and other crypto community members say the same. Roger Ver is going against the flow, though.

In an exclusive interview with U.Today, which is to be published next week, Mr Sostenbo touched upon the topic of scams in the crypto industry, saying that he would like more attention to be drawn to them in the media. What he said was:

The ones that deserve attention are actually the bad ones. I would like to see more attention shed on the obvious scams in this space, like the HEX project by Richard Heart or this crazy token that just appeared the other day called MINDOL with something like 15,000 percent increase, which is an obvious scam.

One of the biggest and influential financial agencies, Weiss Ratings, has also drawn attention to HEX in its recent tweet, saying that it has one big issue half of it which is distributed to token holders goes to a single account, called the Origin Address.

It adds that the main purpose of creating HEX is to enrich those who created it, not its investors.

The other day, the price of HEX token dropped 99 percent (from 3,000 Satoshis to just 3).

A HEX promoter Trevon James has recorded a video to clam down the investors, saying 'you did not lose your money but technically it looks like you've lost your money'.

Members of the crypto community started heated discussions all over Twitter, pointing out that $5.2 mln in Ethereum has been sent to HEX already.

The former Bitcoin JesusRoger Verhas recently listed the token on its Bitcoin.com exchange and gave it a personal endorsement, as U.Today reported earlier.

His major argument for the support of the project that a lot of people call a scam is:

Don't like something? Don't buy it. Have something you don't like? Sell it.

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Bitcoin Price in 2020: Bloomberg Analyst Predicts That $10,000 Is More Likely Than $5,000 - U.Today

Stone Bitcoins and Echoes From the Past – Coindesk

The best Sundays are for long reads and deep conversations. This time we're reflecting on the past and taking a deeper look at one of the most interesting blockchain allegories that doesn't involve technology at all

Don't have time to listen? Partial transcript below (Stone Bitcoins segment only)

More ways to Listen or Subscribe.

In the midst of the biggest bubble to date, deep in the "then they laugh at you" phase, and with the China narrative rising for the first time as trade volumes overtook the rest of the world, Adam B. Levine was joined by Stephanie Murphy and Andreas M. Antonopoulos in early 2014 for a conversation that is very different, yet somehow the same as they react in real time to all-time high prices of $220...

But first, In the nearly seven years since they started talking Bitcoin, Adam's favorite segment from his favorite writer is without question, "the Island of Stone Bitcoins" by then-LTB managing editor George Ettinger. Bitingly funny and still one of the easiest ways to accurately explain how blockchains and tokens work without the need for technology at all, this segment is not to be missed.

Let's Talk Bitcoin! #421 is sponsored by Brave.com and eToro.com, and is distributed in partnership with CoinDesk.com

SO YOU'VE DECIDED TO TELL SOMEBODY ABOUT BITCOIN.

I, for one, am glad to hear it. You have my congratulations and respect; explaining Bitcoin is a noble endeavor. Other noble endeavors include bathing a leper, manually clearing blockage from a constipated mule, and applying for anything involving the words "phase one human clinical trials."

My point is you're doing something that is highly necessary and will ideally make the world a better place in the grand scheme. In the immediate future, however, you will be miserable. You will be miserable, tired, and will really wonder how anything good could come of this. Bitcoin does not lend itself to casual explanation or to convenient metaphor.

In fact, very few comparisons even suit it! It's a currency but it works like a commodity. It's mined in limited quantities, so... it's almost like gold! ...except it's created at an exact, fixed rate and will end at an exact, fixed point. So, not like gold. The work of 'mining' doesn't really 'accomplish' anything, either.

Bitcoin is a trainwreck of anachronisms to have to dump on any unsuspecting novice, and horrible pseudo-words like 'blockchain' and 'hashcash' just make it sound more like a scam.

Take all this insufferable jargon and add the fact that any given person you're explaining it to has used fiat currency notes their whole life and you have a recipe for... for nothing. Probably, nothing. There is a slightest sliver of possibility they will understand and take interest, and the much greater likelihood they will become exasperated and simply hate the stuff out of frustration and I'm getting angry just thinking about it actually.

You're more likely to create a frothing madman who calls Bitcoin a pyramid scheme (showing equally poor understanding of Bitcoin AND pyramid schemes) than an excited new adopter. What we need is a story- a story with a point, with a message, with an illustration of what we're trying to get across. In ancient times, before the centuries-old culmination of written human language was abandoned in favor of "blogging," this was known as an "allegory."

In my last article I made mention of a story that helped to finally introduce me to the world of Bitcoin, and the more I've learned the more apt the story has become. There is a strong allegory for Bitcoin in a currency that has already been used before. That currency is hundreds of years old, and there isn't anything else quite like it.

THE PRIMORDIAL BITCOIN

Off in the Pacific Ocean, among the Caroline Islands, is a particular trio of small islands known together as the Island of Yap. Its native residents form several communities among the islands and number in the thousands. From its 'discovery' by Spain in the sixteenth century until the turn of the twentieth, it was a largely ignored Spanish property.

Once the island fell under German ownership in 1899, more details of their peculiar culture were finally exposed to the western world. More specifically, their peculiar economy. Yap was lush in vegetation and fairly sustainable but had no precious metals or minerals to be found.

So, for function of currency they made stone coins. The people of Yap, keen on not half-assing this 'coin' thing, decided to go big AND to go home. They sailed up to four hundred miles to other islands with vast limestone quarries so that they could carve out enormous stone discs three to twelve feet in diameter, wheel them over to rafts, and sail them back to Yap. The men who carved the stone rolled it into a convenient place (even if it took a dozen extra hands to do so) and it was ready for trade.

After they 'mined' and moved the coin, its journey really was done. When time came for a large trade, something on par with livestock or a dowry, the coin changed hands. By 'changed hands' I mean the two involved parties loudly and publicly declared that this particular coin here was now property of so-and-so, and proceeded to leave it right where it was. Nobody could be arsed to move the bloody things. They were massive, and the community was tight-knit; so why bother?

So generations passed and the stones never moved. Tallies were never marked or recorded on the stones- it wasn't necessary. Business was conducted and announced publicly, and the rightful owner of any given stone was common knowledge to anyone living near it.

So these stone coins weren't traditional "coins." You could not fit them in the pockets of anything but the most clownly of pants. You did not even put them in a vault for safekeeping. They simply existed, and the community kept the knowledge of who owned which at any given time.

Anyone who has arrived at letstalkbitcoin.com through conscious effort and not via any elaborate cat-on-keyboard incidents should be able to see some of the parallels at work here. To those of you who see it, I say shut up, it gets even better.

For at least three generations, there was a particular family in a particular home whose wealth was well-known across the islands. The family had long been owners of what might have been one of the biggest stone coins in circulation. ... and not one person on those islands had ever seen it.

Those aforementioned generations earlier, this enormous coin was carved out and loaded up for transport by an expedition of incredibly ambitious Yap residents. Their prodigious haul slipped from import manifests and into mytho-history when a harsh storm battered their rafts just a little ways from home shores.

The raft carrying King Coin (or Coin Kong? I didn't really think this one through, sorry) was cut loose, and their newfound wealth plummeted to the seafloor. In a boring, physicality-obsessed, fiat economy, this would be the tragic end of an otherwise uplifting tale of heroic (and Homeric) avarice. The story would be embellished, talk of sirens and wizards would be peppered throughout the narrative, and, at the end of the day, these men would still be broke.

The people of Yap, however, didn't see what the fuss was about. The men of the expedition all vouched for the proportions of the coin and its general location. Adding to this the fact that it was 'lost' only in the tangible sense and not in the fiscal one, there was no reason not to go on using it.

After all, they lost their millions to a storm, not to the craps table. Just like "that coin between those two trees," or "that coin next to Jim's house," and "that coin of Bob's that looks conspicuously like a phallus but he gets angry when you point it out," this coin entered circulation based on reputation. It was "that coin at the bottom of the ocean," and this family had clutched it for years before spending it on God-knows-what.

The stone coins already existed in a decentralized, community-enforced 'ledger.' By this precedent, they no longer needed even to be tactile objects. Stone coins were simply a unit on the Stonecoin Blockchain, tracked by group-verified transactions. With only so many coins in circulation, the community kept fairly consistent tabs on who owned what.

Whether or not Yap investors lived in fear of a 51% attack is beyond the scope of this allegory; the point itself should be abundantly clear by now.

SO THE STONE COINS ARE AN ALLEGORY FOR BITCOIN

...the point is that the stone coins are an allegory for Bitcoin. I hope I didn't make that too subtle. In this interpretation of the Stone Money of Yap as an allegory for Bitcoins (see previous sentences,) the story becomes a functional teaching tool. The story of Yap and its coins is a place to start when introducing newcomers to the blockchain.

I cannot emphasize "teaching the blockchain" nearly enough; you don't teach a person what a "Bit-Coin" is, just as much as you don't explain the texture, shape, and flavor of Yap's limestone coins. You tell them how they are recorded and how they're used. Just as each of us keeps record of the blockchain, the people of Yap all had to keep aware of who owned what. Ownership was a matter of public declaration. By spreading the word to others, it became verification. You didn't own currency unless you got the majority of the community to agree you did. You did this by conducting your business transparently, and announcing all transactions to the world at large. A deal made in secret or made dishonestly was impossible; transparency was part of the protocol. Bitcoin and stone coin changed hands almost identically.

Whether limestone or crypto, these aren't the typical 'coins' one rustles from sofa cushions or the pockets of your playground extortion victims. We don't lay eyes on these coins- we just all agree on where they are and who they belong to. All our Bitcoins are on the metaphorical ocean floor, safely away from prying eyes and sticky fingers, and every member of the community is sitting on a hard copy of the ledger. We don't simply 'trust,' however- our ledger is produced, updated, and thoroughly encrypted by the same software protocol that makes it possible.

Prying eyes aren't left totally in the dark, either; the same blockchain that tracks this ledger is protected from being altered, but is visible to any who want to see what coins have moved where. What Yap enforced by culture we enforce by encryption. What they cut from stone we carve from graphics cards. It's these traits that made their stones and our bitcoins commodities instead of reserve notes; false value could not be simply printed off a press. Bitcoins and stone coins weren't empty promises generated on a whim. They are the product of investment, whether its time spent sailing or time spent mining a processor.

The story of Yap, the stone coins, and the system they used is a great teaching tool, certainly- but it's not just for the outsiders. See, the story of stone money doesn't simply end there; all of us within the community can learn from what happened to Yap's stone coins when the Tax Man came calling.

STONECOIN GOES TO WASHINGTON

After Germany got over the novelty of having their own tiny preindustrial island, it decided to move in and get unpacking. They mercifully weren't insistent on displacing or bothering the native culture too much, but they wanted room for military stations around the islands and needed the infrastructure to connect them. The simple gravel walking trails connecting all of Yap's villages were awesome for bare feet and batcave-sized novelty coins, but were less than ideal for German road vehicles. The German government sent word out to all the village leaders that wider, modern stone roads needed to be implemented across the islands.

It isn't in doubt whether or not the elders got the message- it just seems unlikely that any of them gave a damn what their absentee foreign overlords wanted. There was very little incentive to appease these strangers, and months upon months went by without any sign of the tropical expressway the military was looking for. German officials, recognizing that no progress was being made, resorted to other means of motivating the locals. The callous Germans slaughtered the island inhabitants swiftly and brutally is what you expected me to say, because you, sir, are a racist, and shame on you.

These were turn-of-the-century bureaucrats, not Nazis, first off. Second, social disagreements didn't actually escalate into graphic violence at the rate modern flame-wars would have you believe. The Germans' solution was so simple and nonviolent it made Ghandi look like Manson. A few officials went around the Island, spray-painting sizable black X's on the biggest stone coins they could find. They then proclaimed, for all to hear, that these stones were now confiscated funds of the German government.

The people of Yap had been fined. Durable, modern-sized roads appeared in very, very short order. Upon completion, friendly German officials were dispatched once again- this time with solvents to clean the marks off the stones. The levied fines had been refunded. The people of Yap were manipulated, of course- but was their money manipulated, or was their belief? The Germans never took a thing away from the residents of the Island; they simply preyed on the peoples' willingness to play by their rules.

In their graciousness to be part of the larger world their European 'masters' presented, the people of Yap mistakenly believed that those paint-wielding officials' rules held real power over them. Forgetting that they themselves -the community- held power over their money, they let the ILLUSION of authority give a few bureaucrats REAL authority.

There's an altogether-different, and much-less-funny allegory at work there. In the world of Bitcoin we're beset on seemingly all sides by the spectre of government intervention. We have men and women of our own community crying out for recognition, permission, and regulation from various political masters- all out of fear. Bitcoin isn't being threatened by the government. We are.

Bitcoin is a protocol. It is not a place or a thing, and to call it international is still understating its virility. Bitcoin is apolitical. It transcends boundaries as if no boundaries existed. Law can claim about as much jurisdiction over Bitcoin as it can over wind and rain. It simply isn't all that vulnerable to governance. But WE are- and we're projecting our weakness onto Bitcoin by begging for political legitimacy. In threatening businesses and individuals over Bitcoin, bureaucrats are again painting marks on values that they don't respect. They CAN harm us as individuals, it's true; but we can't give them more power than they are due.

So long as we go back and forth between cryptocurrency and fiat currency, we are pinned under their thumbs. The more we trade in Bitcoin as a currency, and not a speculative medium for Dollar gains, the more freedom we secure.

Business and value are human creations, not political entities, and by seeking their approval and placating their whims we give them political authority over us. If we keep volunteering to play the Bitcoin game by their rules, we may eventually start to believe them. ...and then, Bitcoin won't be Bitcoin anymore. It'll be theirs.

The story of Yap and the eponymous "Island of Stone Money" was originally told in 1910 by anthropologist William Henry Furniss III. The subsequent 1991 revisiting of the subject by the Hoover Institution was researched and written by Milton Friedman. This interpretation and commentary of their works is entirely the product of this article's author.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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Stone Bitcoins and Echoes From the Past - Coindesk

This Bitcoin Metric Could Trigger the Next BTC Bull Run – Bitcoinist

There are a number of varying metrics that Bitcoin analysts use to predict future price movements of the asset. One rarely used oscillator takes BTC energy value into account and it is flashing bullish at the moment.

Okay, so this metric may not be as popular as other recently used ones such as NVT ratios or unadjusted transaction values, but it is still worth a glance.

The oscillator takes into account the bitcoin price as a percentage of its energy value. It works on the premise that raw Joules alone can be used to estimate a fair value for BTC.

Digital asset manager Charles Edwards has delved deeper into this little known metric and noted some major similarities with previous bitcoin market patterns.

2019 looks VERY similar to the starting characteristics of prior bull runs.

The chart shows a clear pattern when the values have oscillated between 50% and -50% just before the previous two major bitcoin bull runs.

An in-depth analysis of the energy value model by Edwards summarizes;

The Energy Value model states that if all miners were to stop mining Bitcoin tomorrow, the power input would be zero and Bitcoin would be worthless

Using the energy value formula it adds that the current fair value for bitcoin last week was $11,500 which was way higher than its trading price.

There are other factors that come into play such as the BTC production cost which is a function of the asset price and mining expenses. Variations in such were found to be driven by the level of electrical energy input and energy efficiency of mining hardware.

Plotting the chart over the past decade revealed a strong correlation between the bitcoin energy value to its historic price in addition to stock to flow.

Chart courtesy of capriole.io

The research concludes with several principles that include increases in energy input will increase the fundamental value of bitcoin, as will higher hash rates.

Hash rates have leveled out over the past two months according to bitinfocharts.org. Theyre currently ranging between 85 and 100 EH/s which displays a level of network stability, and quells the notion that miners are capitulating.

If history rhymes with the energy value metric the next BTC bull run could be imminent. This would coincide with the stock to flow model and halving due in five months time.

If Bitcoin is successfully mass adopted as a store of wealth and/or global currency we may have financial market evidence that value is intrinsically linked to effort, the Joules of energy spent in work.

Does the BTC EV oscillator signal another bitcoin bull run? Add your comments below.

Images via Shutterstock, Twitter: @caprioleio, capriole.io

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This Bitcoin Metric Could Trigger the Next BTC Bull Run - Bitcoinist

Top 3 price prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos find a foothold and try to point to the Moon – FXStreet

Yesterday's article highlighted the extreme overselling of the market and, therefore, the high probability that bargain hunters would appear. And they appeared.

The news jumped, with double-digit percentage increases, along with the crypto board.

The news of the day is the SEC proposal to extend the qualification requirements as a qualified investor.

Now, the requirements to be able to invest in hedge funds, private funds and alternative investments in the United States are only economic. Wealth and income point to the line. The SEC proposes that regulated and demonstrable academic training can give access to the rating.

This proposal would have a full impact on the crypto market, where many investment initiatives are beyond the reach of the small investor.

The ETH/BTC pair is currently trading at the 0.01785price level and is suffering from a lack of momentum in the Ethereum that leaves it at the mercy of massive Bitcoin rebounds.

The long-term bearish trend line (A) is fast approaching, and for the moment, the feeling is more of a threat than of hope.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at 0.01867, then the second at 0.020 and the third one at 0.0217.

Below the current price, the first support level is at 0.018, then the second support level is at 0.0161 and the third one at 0.015.

The MACD on the daily chart points down, although with a profile that for now allows for a rebound to the upside.

The DMI on the daily chart clearly shows an extreme situation. Bears are shooting higher and remain above the ADX line. The bulls, on the other hand, go to minimum levels and mark the worst record in history, only surpassed during the lows of 2017.

BTC/USD is currently trading at the $7156price level after crashing yesterday at the close of the long-term bearish channel (A). Bitcoin needs to escape this bearish figure, and I'm sure that when it does, it will fly off in the direction of the moon.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $7400, then the second is at $7525 and the third one at $7600.

Below the current price, the first level of support is at $7100, then the second is at $6850 and the third one at $6750.

The MACD meets expectations and turns and crosses in a bullish direction. The bullish profile is very smooth and there is hardly any opening between the lines, but the change from yesterday's situation is complete.

The DMI on the daily chart is in line with yesterday's pattern. The bears couldn't get past the ADX line and bounce heavily downwards, with the same intensity as the bulls bounce upwards. The development of the technical pattern suggests that the bullish turn will occur in the next.

The ETH/USD pair is currently trading at the $128.10price level and forms a temporary floor at the base of the long-term bullish channel. Ethereum has no room underneath to evolve without risking its existence.

Due to the position and profile of the moving averages, the price could be in this zone for a couple of months, ranging between $150 and $200.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $130, then the second at $145 and the third one at $150.

The MACD on the daily chart persists in the bearish cross but does not increase either the slope or the openness between the lines.

The DMI on the daily chart provides invaluable information. Bears are following the same bullish pattern as seen on the Bitcoin. Unable to get past the ADX line, they bounce down hard. Strangely, the bulls do not react to the rise, which makes me suppose that the bears still tried to surpass the ADX line a second time.

The XRP/USD pair is currently trading at the $0.1892price level and is close to the base of the bearish structure that has governed the XRP price since the beginning of 2018. If the price continues in this scenario, it will reach 2017 levels of $0.13 in March 2020.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $0.19, then the second at $0.217 and the third one at $0.25.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $0.175, then the second at $0.15 and the third one at $0.133.

The MACD on the daily chart maintains the bearish cross, although the slope and opening continue to be very small. A bullish turn is possible at any time according to this indicator.

The DMI on the daily chart shows bears bouncing upwards and then bouncing downwards without touching the ADX line. The bulls do not take advantage of the bear's bearish rebound and remain at minimum levels.

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Top 3 price prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Cryptos find a foothold and try to point to the Moon - FXStreet

NYPD radio encryption most likely wont happen in 2020 but will soon – amNY

After amNewYork reported this week of the NYPDs plans to encrypt police radios in 2020, police officials said Thursday that it would likely not move forward with encryption for at least a year.

Moreover, police brass indicated that they are open to discussion as to who, outside of the Police Department, would have access to encrypted communications.

Encryption could potentially cut off media groups who currently monitor police radio feeds for breaking news. Outlets would then have to rely upon releases from the NYPD and statements from its officials.

Elected officials, none of whom seemed to know about the multi-million dollar encryption plan, have expressed fears of encryption, as it might significantly reduce transparency of the department. Mayor Bill de Blasios administration has emphasized greater transparency at the NYPD for most of his tenure.

Members of volunteer fire and ambulance squads around the city also use police radios to monitor for trouble, and many of them expressed doubts about the plan, fearing that they too would be cut off.

But on Dec. 19, NYPD Deputy Commissioner for Counter-Terrorism John Miller said encryption would happen in a three- to five-year transition.

So nothings happening today, nothings happening tomorrow, and probably nothings happening next year, Miller said. This is a lot of radios.

Commissioner Dermot Shea said there must be a balance between police officer safety and transparency to the public.

It is an interesting time after just what just happened in Jersey City, Shea said, referring to the Dec. 11 terrorist attack that killed six. With traditional crime and now traditional criminals using encryption, we cant have situation where criminals have better technology than police officers and detectives whether they are drug dealers or breaking into banks. Criminals are using encryption. We should certainly consider transparency, but the priority for keeping New Yorkers safe.

Miller acknowledged some investigative channels are already encrypted to safeguard investigations, as are Federal investigative channels including Drug Enforcement administration, secret service and FBI.

Any further encryption is open to more discussion at this point with a 3-5 year transition, he said. Part of the thinking and planning is where would it be advantageous to say officer safety, the integrity of investigations the commissioner gives the example of a kidnapping, how do you conduct one of those over the radio when the world is listening for entertainment? Its something we are looking at nothing that is happening right away.

Miller, a former journalist himself, noted that There have been other cities gone encrypted, and theyve made arrangements with news media that have made sense. If we ever get to the point where we are going to that level, Im sure that discussion will take place.

Miller testified Wednesday at the City Council Public Safety Committee over proposed legislation, Intro. 487, that would create comprehensive reporting and oversight of NYPD surveillance technologies. The NYPD took a stand against the bill, saying providing detailed information on technology would tip off criminals and terrorists and allow them to thwart investigations.

Sample of a police radio scanner system in action.

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NYPD radio encryption most likely wont happen in 2020 but will soon - amNY