NASA Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga addressing a press conference at Capitol Hill office in Nairobi on Thursday 20/07/17 over fear of the security transfers.PHOTO:BONIFACE OKENDO

With less than a month to the General Election, all hands are on deck for the Opposition National Super Alliance (NASA) led by Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka.

While not an entirely new concept, the formation of a super alliance with five key principals from diverse ethnic groups, coupled with a devolved government, relatively autonomous Judiciary and populist 'movement for change' zeitgeist, Raila's odds of winning the presidency have steadily increased.

That said, NASA's ability to show strength in unity and execute a well-planned elections strategy will be vital considering that Raila's strongholds have historically registered lower voter turnout. Additionally, the performance of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) in conducting credible polls will likely be a key determinant of the vote outcome.

Raila is no stranger to the Kenyan presidential battle. Over the years, he has become skilled at opposition politics, initially gaining prominence as a kingmaker for former President Mwai Kibaki in 2002. This was followed by his contribution to creating the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which in the 2005 referendum successfully opposed the implementation of a new constitution.

His greatest political success came in 2007, when he became the country's prime minister.

Pentagon structure

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This year's rebirth of the pentagon structure under NASA follows a multi-ethnic representation narrative, especially when compared to Jubilee Party, which is deemed to be dominated by Kikuyus and Kalenjins.

Although the represented tribes in NASA remain largely the same as in 2007, the political landscape has changed significantly over the past 10 years. Notably, the post-election violence allegations against President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto at the International Criminal Court a crucial bond for their 2013 win no longer exist.

There is also a general frustration over the recurring Kikuyu/Kalenjin presidency, with parts of the electorate calling for change amid broader frustration over perceived governance failures and performance shortfalls, notably around security, food supply, social development and even inconsistencies in infrastructure development on which Jubilee's campaign is currently anchored.

Should the Opposition manage to galvanise the frustrations and translate them into votes, then Raila's odds will significantly improve. NASA has a number of controversial power brokers behind its electoral machine who will be vital in delivering the party's strongholds and other swing counties. Figures like Hassan Joho and Josephat Nanok have the ability to win key constituencies for NASA.

The inclusion of Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto in the new pentagon structure could also earn NASA some vital votes in the Rift Valley region. Mr Ruto, who has been vocally critical of the presidency and who has a historic rivalry with the Deputy President in particular, has developed his own stature as a respected politician in Rift Valley and nationally. His popularity could amount to a major win for NASA.

Presidential ambitions

Musalia Mudavadi and Kalonzo, who also harbour presidential ambitions, are pushing to be in Government in order to remain relevant, particularly in the face of younger and more exciting governors and politicians rising across various counties.

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The national and regional popularity of NASA's power brokers could be key to Raila's victory, particularly on the back of a rising wave of populism and desire for change.

Although Jubilee bears the incumbency advantage, a first-round victory by Raila cannot be ruled out. However, IEBC's questionable credibility and preparedness reduces the odds of such a victory. A second-round victory would also depend on some of these same factors, with the odds still tipped narrowly in Jubilee's favour despite growing momentum in the Opposition campaign.

NASA's current election campaign strategy, which includes shaming the Government and key players for failing the State economically and socially, appears focused on discrediting the incumbent administration and pushing the populist 'change' narrative.

This has been driven both by Opposition leaders and through an effective social media campaign. NASA is also seeking to exploit its national appeal linked to its ethnic diversity despite some of the sensitivities entailed in such identity-based politics.

Finally, NASA has also voiced concerns about IEBC's independence and preparedness. This likely serves a twin aim of discrediting the authorities to win over voters and provide the grounds for contesting any potential loss.

Uhuru and the incumbent Jubilee administration maintain a narrow advantage heading into the polls; however, unified and consistent campaigning by NASA could see this lead erode further, replicating similar opposition campaigns witnessed in several other recent African elections.

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Ms Cheramboss is an Intelligence and Analysis Consultant at Africapractice EA Ltd

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