Tuesday, October 1, 2019 / 03:19PM / By ChukwumaCharles Soludo, CFR* / Header Image Credit: ThePlatform

Being the text of the prepared speech by Prof. Chukwuma Charles Soludo,CFR, former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria; at The Platform Nigeria'sannual independence lecture themed "Redesigning the Nigerian Economy withNew Ideas"held at The Covenant Place, Beside the National Theatre, Iganmu;October 1, 2019.

I:Introduction/Disclaimer

HappyIndependence Day Celebration!!!

Manythanks to Pastor Poju and the organizers of The Platform for the invitation. Letus start with a disclaimer. We accepted the invitation on 17thMay, 2019 and hadwritten our remarks a few weeks back. When our membership of the EconomicAdvisory Council was announced on the 16thSeptember, we agonisedas to whether we should still honour the invitation or whether we should stillpresent the paper. Finally, we decided to be here but have removed several ofthe pages that contain issues we believe should be on the agenda of theCouncil--- we do not want to pre-empt the work of the Council. Morespecifically, we do not focus on the macroeconomic, sectoral, and structuralpolicies, programmes and projects needed at the moment.

We focuson the future, andconcentrate narrowly on the type of meta-level,political-legal-governance foundation upon which the future can sustainablystand.Our thesis is that if you want to change a persistingeconomic structure, change the underling institutions (we can write a fat bookon this: our experience with the NEEDS vis-a-vis banking recapitalization/consolidationwas one case study that showed that to translate the hitherto slogan of privatesector-led economy into reality needed a different banking/financialinstitution...). For the national economy, it will be difficult to have acompetitive and prosperous post-oil economy of the future (with additionalhundreds of millions of citizens and dwindling land space) with the same legaland institutional foundation designed for consumption of oil rent. You can'tbuild a 100 storey-building upon a foundation of an old bungalow. A post oileconomy requires that all agents maximize their fullest potentials, and what isrequired will be a national rather than a federal response. You can't clap withone hand. Once the focus is wealth creation rather than sharing and consumptionof oil rents, we need a new national business model. Unfortunately, the linkbetween law- Constitution- institutions- Judiciary, etc and economictransformation seems to be the weakest link in our design of national agenda.In the future, hopefully the National Assembly, Ministry of Justice, the statesand other stakeholders might take up the assignment...

II:Context

We havenot come to read the Book of Lamentations about Nigeria's woes, nor to sing thesongs of David. We see the half-empty glass, but we prefer to focus on thehalf-full glass. We want to focus on the future-rather than the past or thepresent. As mentioned above, we are asked to speak on "The EconomicRestructuring of Nigeria"-an omnibus topic indeed! Since the First NationalDevelopment Plan (1962- 68), transformation of the economicstructure/diversification has been the fulcrum of all national plans. Fordecades, every government has tried its brand of 'economic restructuring' oreconomic diversification and yet the economy remains tied to the life-supportof oil, peasant agriculture and largely informal services sector. Incomeinequality, poverty, and unemployment remain major defining features of theeconomy.

Theurgency of the moment is warranted by the context of the new and complicatingrealities. Oil will be history in less than 20 years' time but the pressures ofpeculiar demographics and geography are upon us. Nigeria has one of the highestpopulation growth rates in the world. If current trends continue and youbelieve the population figures, then the future may be overwhelming. By thetime a child born today turns 30 (about 2050), there will be about 400 millionNigerians and when she is 80 (about 2100), there will be about 752 millionNigerians (third largest population in the world). All these people will haveto survive and prosper in a tiny but declining land mass (923,000 sqkm) - decliningdue to desertification and erosion, and Nigeria will have the highestpopulation density in the world among the top ten most populous countries.Lagos is estimated to be home to some 88 million people by 2100 crammed inbarely 3,345 sqkm of land (or 26,307 persons per sqkm-a nightmare! Lagos isclearly unsustainable in the long run and risky for its businessconcentration). All these people will need land, housing, water, food, power,education and health facilities, sewage and waste disposal, transportation, andyes, job, jobs! The population is very youthful with 43% between 0-14 yearsold; 53% between 15-65 years and 4% over 65 years.

And theworld is not waiting for Nigeria. The world is on the 4thIndustrial revolutionwith digital economy and we are struggling with the first stage of Rostow'sstages of growth. Artificial intelligence together with other futuretechnologies such as robotics, synthetic biology, computational science,nanotechnology, quantum computing, 3D and 4D printing, internet of Things,cognitive science, self-driving vehicles, etc--- will surely produce totallydifferent social and economic configurations than what we know today. Check outChina's "Made in China 2025 Plan" and its targeted top 10 industries with anaim to dominate the world. All these entail humungous creative destructiongoing on with huge job losses and future structural unemployment. Whileelectric cars are fast replacing diesel/petrol cars many of our people arestill building petrol stations; small shops are proliferating whileagglomeration in terms of huge shopping malls together with e-shopping are thetrend; automation is upon us, etc. Ordinary people who can't explain what hashit them, resort to all sorts of criminal activities to survive.

Most futurologistsbelieve that with billions of people being added to the global population, onlynew systems for food, water, energy, education, health, skills development andjob creation, economics and governance will avert potential disastrousconsequences for humanity and the environment (See the2015-16 State ofthe Future). Economic restructuring strategy of the future thereforeentails thinking through the alternative future scenarios and mapping outalternative possible proactive responses. In which areas/sectors does Nigeriaproactively position to become global leaders by the end of 2050 or thecentury? Closer home, Nigeria has signed the African Continental Free TradeAgreement (AfCFTA). Insularity won't be an option. The name of the game of thefuture in an increasingly integrated world is innovate/compete or die.

Let'sbreak it down. Economic restructuring of the future is about positioningNigeria to compete and win in an increasingly complex world therebyguaranteeing the security, prosperity and happiness of the 400 or 752 millionNigerians, in a world without oil. It will require deploying a gamut oflegal-regulatory-governance regimes, macro and sectoral policies and programmesto alter the spatial/geographical concentration of economic activities,structure of production from primary to industrial and post-modern servicesectors, from peasant to commercial agriculture, from exhaustible naturalresources to renewable and dynamic human resource as engine of sustainabledevelopment; etc. With a current GDP of about US$400 billion (down from $540billion) and negative per capita income growth (with rising unemployment andpoverty), the restructuring of the future would entail transformational changesto generate and sustain broad based growth of at least 7% (from recent 1-2%)which is required for poverty reduction and employment generation.

Putdifferently, if we target to be a middle-income country of say, US$7,500 percapita by 2100 (from about $1,930 currently), then we need a GDP of over US$5.5trillion by 2100 (thereby requiring double digit annual growth). The agenda todo this won't just require thinking outside of the box - it would requirethinking without the box at all: big, bold plan and action! At the macrolevel, the fundamental challenge currently is that the economy is stuck at avery low speed lane in the context of a debt cliff with little fiscal space,while monetary policy is at near its limits, and low savings-investment trap,with rising unemployment and poverty. To get to poverty reducing and employmentgenerating trajectory in the short-term requires serious heavy lifting, withmajor difficult choices and extraordinary coordination ahead. Surely thegovernments at all levels have their jobs cut out for them, and we won't dwellon that here.

In sum,the alternative future that we see is one without oil, and where otherexhaustible natural resources play very little role. The future economy will bedriven by peopleour youths and technology. Nigeria's people/youths remain itspotentially greatest asset--- potentially renewable resource for productivity,huge market, and even export. Yes, the next bigger than oil export earner forNigeria will (potentially) be its human capital. Currently, Nigeria earnsalmost as much from oil exports as it earns from remittances from its Diaspora.But we cannot export illiterates in a world driven by digital revolution. Theeasiest way to waste the future is to continue to churn out millions ofsemi-illiterate, largely unemployable citizens, most of whom see criminality asthe only route to escape the poverty trap or drug as the opium for solace. Withan urbanization rate of over 5%, the conflagration that might ensure whenhundreds of millions surge to the cities but can't find jobs, housing, waterand food can only be imagined. Soon, the rich won't be able to sleep becausethe poor, homeless and hungry are awake.

By theway, who says that we can't have smart population policy that encourages peopleto have the number of children that they can train, and also ensure reliablepopulation census using biometrics rather than the political population figureswe have? Whatever the case, the challenge is how to deliberately optimize thepotentials of the huge youthful population to be highly productive at home andcompetitive/exportable abroad. An educational system with 21stcentury curriculapowered by technology that guarantees one youth, one to three skills might be awinning strategy.

As theWestern population ages and declines, they would need productive labour andNigeria can smartly position to become the largest supplier of suchlabour-indirectly through outsourcing or directly. Nigeria would have toleapfrog the industrialization ladder and services sector to provide urban jobsand rely upon smart technology to grow the food to feed the hundreds of millions.Peasant agriculture has little future especially as the population densitysurges with rapidly declining plot of land per capita. If Nigeria prospersrelative to its neighbours, it would witness a surge in migration from otherAfrican countries under the free movement of goods and persons protocol-withall the further complications for existing facilities.

III: The Challenge of Weak Foundation

Thequestion is whether the existing foundation is adequate or appropriate for thedynamics and challenges of the future? Unfortunately, the answer is no. OurConstitution, together with its command and control institutions concentratedat Abuja was designed for and around the sharing and consumption of oil rent.It is largely obsolete for the demands of a productive economy (without oilrents) which requires competitive and flexible rather than unitaryfederalism. As the oil rent that held the system together is taperingoff, its internal contradictions have burst open, requiring a coterie of survival/copingmechanisms to keep the system afloat. But for how long?

See forexample, the 12 clusters of variables that are considered in computing theFragile/Failed States Index by the U.S Fund for Peace. The index which aims to "assess vulnerability to collapse"summarizes the failure of Nigeria'sinstitution and measures four clusters of variables, namely:a)Cohesion(securityapparatus, factionalized elite, and group grievance);b)Economic(economicdecline, uneven economic development, and human flight and brain drain);c)Political(statelegitimacy, public services, and human rights and rule of law); andd)Social(demographicpressures, refugees and IDPs, and external intervention). Nigeria's ranking hasdeteriorated from 54 in 2005 and now stands between 13 and 15 over the pasteight years and largely in the Red Alert category with countries such asAfghanistan, Iraq, Haiti, Guinea, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, etc. Long-termsustainable transformation must address the root of this systemic decline. In amulti-ethnic, multi-religious society such as ours, designing institutions forstability and prosperity requires great care and should always be awork-in-progress.

Since2005 when we delivered the Democracy Day Lecture and in several of our previousarticles (see "Nigeria Without Oil"; a three-part article on the backpage of ThisDay entitled "Reconstructing Nigeria for Prosperity", "ThePolitical Economy of Restructuring the Nigerian Federation", etc) we haveelaborately demonstrated how the current Constitution and its institutionsstifle innovation and competition and hence inimical to rapid economictransformation in a post-oil world. We showed how Section 162 of theConstitution has created a perverse Lottery Effect, destroyed the incentive forwealth creation on the part of governments and foisted an indolent culture ofentitlements. As opposed to the productive, self-financing regions of the FirstRepublic, all the tiers of government now converge at Abuja every month toshare largely oil revenue. Except perhaps Lagos State, hardly any other stateor local government or even the FGN can fund its recurrent expenditures withoutoil money.

Add tothe above the suffocating concentration of powers at Abuja (see the long listof items on the exclusive and concurrent lists of the Constitution).Consequently, the federal government is saddled with hundreds of parastatalsand agencies trying to inefficiently micro manage the entire country, with therecurrent expenditure of FGN plus debt service exceeding federal revenue. Abujaimposes common rather than minimum standards. It sets the same wage to be paidby states irrespective of their incomes-of course on the assumption that theoil money will always be there to pay for it. FGN maintains federal marriage registry,issues drivers' license-which should be local government affair, runs primaryand secondary schools, etc. We have centralized policing even with stategovernors as 'chief security officers'-and expect the future 400 or 752 millionNigerians to be secured from Abuja. The Federal Government has exclusive rightover all minerals, while the Land Use Act grants the Governors the right overland. To get to the solid minerals, you must have access to the land and theconflict between State and community powers over land vis-a-vis the federalright to what is underneath it has not been resolved. The enduringconflict as well as the continuing flow of oil rents have combined to providelittle incentive to develop the solid minerals. The list is long and we don'tintend to rehash it here. By trying to keep everyone in check, Abuja hasinadvertently held the entire country down.

One finalexample is the judicial system. Property rights and rule of law constitute thefoundation of a modern economy. In Nigeria, we copied the American presidentialsystem but forgot to copy their multi-layered judicial system consistent with afederation. Instead we are stuck with a highly centralized system consistentwith the command and control structure of the 1999 Constitution and its unitaryfederalism. Every little matter can end up at the only Supreme Court: ifsomeone steals his neighbour's goat in Calabar, or there is a dispute overownership of a shop in Jos or someone dupes a petty trader of her capital inLagos, the court cases may, on appeals, end up at the Supreme Court. Apre-election dispute in a local government election in Yobe or Abia state (apurely local and state affair) can also end up at the same Supreme Court and inmany cases the judgement comes after the wrong candidate has served out theterm.

Thecourts are congested: with about 117,000 pending cases at the Federal HighCourt alone, estimated tens of thousands at the Appeal court, and over 30,000at the Supreme Court. Court cases, including commercial disputes can last fordecades. As the population balloons, it is expected that the number of pendingcases under the current system will continue to multiply. The prisons areovercrowded. Chidi Odinkalu estimates (using case study of federal prisons in Imostate and if those are representative) that the congestion rate is 170% andwith 86% of prison inmates awaiting trial. Most prisoners end up serving termshigher than would have been the case if convicted. The judges are grosslyoverworked and underpaid. Nigeria's Supreme Court is probably the only one inthe world where the justices sit every day, and yet pending cases keep mountingin thousands. As the saying goes, justice delayed is justice denied. Howdo we expect the future economy to compete and win in the new world in asociety where it can take more than 20 years to settle a simple commercialdispute that takes few days in other countries? Also our system for fightingcorruption is again concentrated at Abuja. Can we seriously expect the ICPC andEFCC to police 774 LGAs and the impending 752 million Nigerians?

We can goon and on. Global evidence is that institutions drive economic transformationbut sadly much of our institutions are either obsolete or inappropriate for thedemands of the future. Some analysts and politicians brandish economicblueprints for a post-oil Nigeria but without the concomitantlegal-political-governance infrastructure to deliver such Plans. This isactually a key missing link in many of the failed National Plans not only inNigeria but also in many countries. Such economistic plans either sought tolegislate politics out of public policy or misunderstood change to be apush-button technocratic process. Such plans are often predicated on the falseassumption that committed and visionary leadership to implement them will fallfrom the skies without understanding that except by occasional fluke, the typeof leaders in a society is a product of the system. In the end, politicswill always trump economics.

It isfair to say that no issue commands a greater, broader consensus in Nigeriatoday than a recognition that the current system needs fundamental overhaul andhence the deafening call for "restructuring" the Nigerian federation. Almostthe entire Nigerian socio-cultural-political groups (South West/Yoruba Nation;South South; South East/Ndigbo; Middle Belt, and the former Northern Region)have either produced or are working to announce their template for "restructuring". Even some political parties, led by the All ProgressivesCongress (APC), have either announced details of their position onrestructuring or made "true federalism" the centre piece of their manifestoesfor a better Nigeria.

Morefundamentally, the APC promised a bolder action plan in its 2015Manifesto: "As a change Agent, APC intend to cleanse our closet tohalt the dangerous drift of Nigeria to a failed state; with a conscious planfor post-oil-economy in Nigeria. To achieve this laudable programme APCgovernment shall restructure the country, devolve power to the units, with thebest practices of federalism and eliminate unintended paralysis of the center".During the last general election, several candidates ran on the platform of 'restructuring'. The loudest agitation for "restructuring" comes fromethno-religious-political organizations and occasionally also some politicians.Unfortunately, the fundamental economic argument is often beclouded by thepolitics of the agitation. Mutual suspicion has crept in about 'motives' andthe word 'restructuring' now means different things to different people.

Perhapsit is time to simplify or change the language. Instead of 'restructuring', canwe call it 'systemic or institutional reforms', or 'devolution and fiscalfederalism' or 'Designing a new constitution for prosperity', etc. It is goingto be a political-legal process, with continuing bargaining among differentinterest groups and the ensuing compromises but should be guided by our historyand evidence. Useful lessons may also be learnt from other countries such asSwitzerland, United Arab Emirates, Canada, the U.S. and Brazil. We should keepit simple but with eyes on the ball, namely: to design relevantpolitical-legal-governance infrastructure to ensure security and prosperity ofthe 752 million Nigerians in 80 years' time or even the most populous countryin the world in the 22ndcentury!

WhatShould Be Done?

1)Create aProductive Progressive (PP) Constitution for a world without oil.

Amongother things, this would entail:

a)Political-governancearrangements that ensure participation and ownership of the Nigerian project byall citizens of the federation- a stable and moreefficient system which promotes fairness, equity and justice. The PPConstitution that gives everyone a stake should orchestrate a new Nigeriancitizen/identity. A key focus would be to address those clusters of variablesin the U.S Fund for Peace Fragile States Index and which ranks Nigeria underthe Red Alert category. In 2003-4, we identified that exiting the FinancialAction Task Force (FATF) list of non-compliant countries as well as debt reliefwere decisive for rejigging the economy and we framed policies and legislationaround them. We succeeded and the economy was better for it. Similarly, exitingthe Red Alert list of the Fragile States Index is a desideratum. Nigeria nowranks 14 while Ghana ranks 110-and little surprise that companies arerelocating to Ghana especially given the AfCFTA.

b)Devolution ofpowersaccording to the principle of subsidiarity and variablegeometry- away from the current system of unitary-federalism, withits choking concentration of powers and responsibilities at the inefficientcentre; thereby giving power back to the people. Unless we assume that oil boomwill rebound and endure, devolution is a matter of survival for the FGN and theeconomy. The federal government should loosen its hold on policing, electricity(power), railways, ports, aviation, business incorporation, vehicle and driverslicensing, taxation powers, regulatory functions, schools, prisons, etc. Thiswill give impetus for a totally different economy. The FGN can strengthen itsregulatory oversight, while states may partner with local and internationalcorporates to deliver on these. Cross River or Delta state, Rivers or AkwaIbom, for example, may attract foreign investors to develop their ports andcompete between themselves and reap bountiful revenues. Nigeria needs at least6- 10 other cities like Lagos to emerge (for the 752 million Nigerians) but itcan't happen without competitive federation.

Inaddition, the PP Constitution should define a new Fiscal federalism that isconsistent with devolution of powers and which alters the incentives faced byeconomic and political actors, thereby unleashing the competitive spirit, hardwork, innovation and efficiency which are the hallmarks of prosperous economiesof the future. Fiscal relations affect the behaviour of firms, households andgovernments and hence economic activity. The local government system should bescrapped from the Constitution. A federation has two federating units and notthree--- each state should decide on appropriate local government system forit. Section 162 of the 1999 Constitution needs to be scrapped and replaced witha fiscal arrangement that is consistent with devolution of powers. We also needto abrogate the Land Use Act of 1978, the Solid Minerals Act, as well as thevarious Petroleum/Gas Acts and amendments, and return the right of ownership,control and exploitation of these assets to the federating units as proposed bythe APC Committee on restructuring led by Gov. El-Rufai. In turn, they shouldpay appropriate taxes to the federal government.

Nigeriaurgently needs a newFiscal Responsibility Act to constrainirresponsible fiscal behaviour and provide incentives to create wealth.A new fiscal regime should ensure that never again shall we need a wholesalebailout of state governments. For example, fiscal transfers should bebased on performance as well as in the form of matching grants scheme (therebyreplacing unconditional transfers with conditional transfers). Another exampleis that the fiscal responsibility law could constrain governments at all levelsto meet their recurrent expenditures out of their internally generated revenueswhile revenue from natural resources are deployed only for physical and humancapital development. Such fiscal responsibility Act may also constrain at least90% of all borrowing to be for project finance that will repay itself. Ourcurrent structure is centred on consumption, with an unsustainable publicfinance. An alternative structure would free up resources for investment andhence growth. This will completely alter the incentive system and power adifferent trajectory for the economy.

Much ofthe tax powers are currently concentrated at the National Assembly and thisconstrains states' flexibility in deploying fiscal instruments for development.For example, why should all corporate taxes and Value Added Tax be paid intothe federation account? Wherein lies the incentive for states and localgovernments to attract and promote industrialization? Personal income tax willincreasingly not be enough incentive in a future dominated by robotics anddigital economy. If the power for the incorporation of companies is devolved tothe states, perhaps some could be creative to design tax haven status for somecategories of companies. Some countries make hundreds of millions of dollarsper annum from this kind of innovation. Our point is that the federatingunits should have the flexibility to deploy corporate taxation as a veritableinstrument to attract or promote enterprise and for independent revenues.Furthermore, why should we have uniform salary scales across the country oreven common minimum wage? There is just too much of a unitary system whichconstrains everyone to move at the same speed instead of incentivisingdifferent segments of the society to innovate and prosper at different speeds.

2.Legal-Judicial infrastructure and Law as active instrument of economictransformation

In the 21stcentury, a prosperouseconomy is not sustainable without a sound and efficient judicial system. Weneed a progressive and practical new structure that can deliver justice to thehundreds of millions of Nigerians and businesses at the shortest possible time.As a layman, we wonder why Nigeria can't have state or zonal appeals andsupreme courts over local and state matters or why state election matters shouldgo to federal courts in a federation. The PP Constitution should provide forspecialized courts, especially commercial courts. Nigeria needs to investheavily on the judiciary-infrastructure with cutting edge technology as well ascontinuous upgrading of knowledge/skills of judges. Our judiciary should bepart of our brand. Let's do what it takes to brand Nigeria as a nation of laws.For example, London could not have become an international financial centrewithout efficient judicial system or thousands of contracts in the worldindicating London as the jurisdiction for adjudication/arbitration. Can we atleast target to be the number one legal jurisdiction in Africa? With AfCFTA,businesses will relocate to more friendly environments since they will haveaccess to all African markets. As Africa's largest economy, we ought to haveits best judiciary. Furthermore, we need to consciously deploy law as aninstrument of socio-economic transformation by enacting relevant laws tounleash competition and enterprise as well as progressive regulations for thefuture economy. Our ministry of Justice should have a new job description thatis developmental.

While theabove might seem a heavy agenda, we can start with a low hanging fruit namely,the APC's minimum template. The Gov El-Rufai's Committee on Restructuring hasseveral interesting recommendations but three stand out, namely: state police,scrapping of the local government system from the Constitution, and resourcecontrol. The APC recommends abrogating the extant legislations and transferringrights over minerals to the federating units or states. With the APC CommitteeReport and Manifesto, it is fair for Nigerians to ask: so, what's holdingaction? The APC at least has a Committee Report which is public knowledge.Where is the position of PDP as the main opposition party?

What issuggested above is part of the foundational plan for Nigeria's futureprosperity without oil. The contradictions of the old, oil-based economyvis-a-vis the population and geographical pressures are swirling and thechallenge of a new institutional framework to lead the emergence of the neweconomy is urgent. We have a choice of pre-emptive, proactive action toorchestrate a new productive (rather than sharing/consumption) structure orwait until change is forced upon us in a most chaotic manner. A wise man getsthe umbrella ready before the rain starts. We are currently at the cul-de-sacand need a fundamental disruptive change to reverse the trend. A centralmessage therefore is that systemic restructuring is not only progressivepolitics but excellent economics.

3. Fixour broken politics through ideologically and value-oriented mass participation.

A securedand prosperous country of the future won't drop from the skies. Nor can welegislate politics out of public policy. Every advanced or progressive societywe see in the world today is the product of organization, struggles andcontinuous contestations for a more perfect union or society. In a democracy,there is no other route to a better future than the instrumentality ofpolitics. Politics is therefore too serious to be left to those who callthemselves politicians. It is our collective destiny.

Unfortunately,our politics is broken. It is destructive rather than developmental. We defineNigeria's current politics as largely "dining table politics"--- the 'you chopI chop', or what an author Michela Wrong describes as "It is our turn to eat" politics. Consequently, political parties are mere platforms to grab power---same people, same interest---driven by crass opportunism and primitiveaccumulation. It is largely about "what is in it for my pocket" and not about "how can I contribute to leave this world a better place than I met it"? When aminister is appointed, his friends and ethnic or religious group shamelesslycelebrate or complain depending on whether they consider it as 'juicy' or 'dry' appointment. Yet the same people complain about corruption in government. Wehave a national crisis of value dressed in hypocrisy. We really have a long wayto the future of our dream. But a problem identified is half solved.

Forstarters, we need to fix the electoral and judicial system to ensure that onlyvotes count and all votes are counted. This will transfer real power back tothe people, free from the stranglehold of an opportunistic elite. With power inthe hands of the people and with the institutional reforms proposed above whichrequire leaders with capacity for wealth creation, then ideas-based,cake-baking politics can emerge. The current politics is woven around thesharing and consumption of oil rents-and you don't need any productive skillsor to be a person of ideas to be able to "share the money".

But theoil money is fast running out. Total oil income is barely $100 per person-notenough to provide 21stcentury primary and secondary education to our children. The 2019budget of FGN (if implemented 100%) translates to about $120 per capita--- tofund debt servicing (which is about 22%), pay salaries, run the hugebureaucracy, schools and hospitals, police and military, maintain embassiesabroad, roads and railways, etc. The obscene cost of governance and stealing atall levels of government is known. This is within the context that somemillions of children are out of school, over 30% of the population are foodpoor, millions without medication, water, housing, and jobs while a fewpoliticians display obscene lifestyles. In the U.S, the wife of the Governor ofthe state of Maine (with per capita income of $47,969) in 2017 had to take up ajob in a Restaurant to augment the income of her husband- as they wanted tosave money to buy Toyota Rav4 car for her. In Nigeria with per capita incomeof $1,930 and even in states with per capita income below $1,000 per annum, youcan complete the story...! Soon or later, something will give and a totallydifferent politics needs to emerge to secure the future.

Ideas-basedor ideologically driven politics is the future. Forget about the names of theparties-democratic, progressive, liberal, etc-there are no discernibledifferences except the membership, which also switches and changes everyminute. A review of the manifestoes of the political party candidates duringthe last elections is troubling. Many of us still remember the four cardinalprogrammes and ideologies of the five political parties of the Second Republicbut I doubt how many people can coherently explain what their parties stand fortoday. For example, how can you identify an APC or PDP state if you seeone? Beyond sloganeering, we have serious work to do. Our view isthat as the system transits from a rentier, cake-sharing regime to one ofcake-baking, citizens of conscience, regardless of ethnicity and religion, mustrealign along ideological lines to offer Nigerians real alternatives regardingthe pathways to their future. Mass participation founded on patriotism,passion and values of hard work and integrity should drive the politics of thefuture. Those who have something to offer for a better future-especially ouryouths-- must stand up to be counted or stop complaining. The perverse value ofsome of the youths summarized by the phrase "get rich young or die trying" isnot part of the future we desire. We must be the change we want to see. Only avigilant and active citizenry that holds public officers to account will securethe future.

IV: Conclusion

We mustnow conclude. Our summary message is that an alternative glorious future - thenext Nigeria for 400 or 752 million Nigerians-- is possible. It is a futurewithout oil but powered by our greatest asset-human capital plus technology,and which guarantees security, prosperity and happiness. But transition to thatfuture requires a new foundation as it is impossible to try to build a 100storey-building upon the foundation of an old bungalow. Elements of thisfoundation include a PP Constitution that creates a competitive federation;devolution of powers that unbundles Abuja and loosens its choking strangleholdon the economy; a fiscal federalism that promotes competition, innovation andhard work; a new judicial structure and performance that brands Nigeria as acountry of laws with the best judiciary in Africa; and a new developmentalpolitics with citizens power.

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