The hour is later than you think. Saruman.

The concept of technological singularity has always lingered on the fringes of scientific and economic discourse. Its time to seriously consider the prospect of its arrival. The radical transformation of the world as we know it by artificial intelligence in the near future is a real possibility, but it cannot be said with certainty that this will happen. The question arises: how can we spot the approaching wave of the Singularity from afar? Is it possible to understand in advance that a superintelligent AI is near? I am convinced that if we are on the path to super AI, then this path will be realized through a more or less concrete model, at least in the world we live in. This model implies quite specific changes in the economy, politics, and technology that precede the emergence of ASI. The article will discuss these indicators, reviewing the current state of the markers and providing assessments of what their dynamics would signify for the timelines and imminence of Singularity.

Lets envision two hypothetical scenarios.

Scenario 1

A new generation of generative models emerges, and everyone is pleasantly surprised by their capabilities. Nvidias market capitalization surpasses Apple and Microsoft, becoming the first corporation in the world with a valuation of $10 trillion, and its growth continues the global economy becomes increasingly dependent on its chips.

The annual product created by AI is measured in trillions of dollars. An acceleration in GDP growth rates is observed, at least in developed countries 5% per annum becomes a common indicator.

Interest rates remain high, and governments have no incentive to lower them except to reduce payments on servicing the national debt, but this incentive is minor as economic growth offsets debt growth.

Large and wealthy countries begin to implement programs to ensure AI sovereignty creating local data centres that run local proprietary models. Some even attempt to establish their own semiconductor and chip production but with poor results.

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Whispers of Singularity. The hour is later than you think. | by Ihor Kendiukhov | Feb, 2024 - Medium