The blue screen of death. That little paper clip that used to pop up with irritating suggestions every time you used Word. Pre-loading Internet Explorer on every personal computer. Four decades into a career that has made him one of the richest men in the world, Bill Gates has come up with some genuinely terrible stuff over the years.
But he has just had his worst idea yet taxing robots.
The founder of Microsoft MSFT, -0.20% argues that with robots increasingly likely to replace many human workers, the only way to make up for all the lost tax revenue, and to civilize the spread of automation, is to charge the machines directly. It is increasingly popular theme. The European Parliament has taken it up, and it is a flagship policy for the Socialist candidate in Frances presidential election.
Why are the voice assistants in our phones, speakers and computers overwhelmingly female instead of male? WSJ's Joanna Stern explains. Photo/video: Drew Evans/The Wall Street Journal.
Yet is it also completely crazy. Why? Because robots wont pay any taxes, their owners will. Because it will slow down the one thing that is likely to lift productivity. And because it encourages the fallacy that somehow there is somebody else who can pay for the state rather than ordinary workers.
Whether the robotic revolution is everything it is cracked up to be remains to be seen. There is certainly a huge amount of hype around drones, driverless cars, artificial intelligence, and automated factory work. Advances in computing are making lots of tasks like delivery susceptible to automation, and white-collar jobs in fields such as medicine, law and accountancy may soon come under pressure as well.
As that gathers pace, governments around the world are becoming increasingly worried about the impact on the tax base after all, payroll charges are one of the largest sources of their income, and every time a carbon-based worker is replaced with a silicon-based one, that money disappears. You dont need to be penning a dystopian novel to start imagining a world in which mass unemployment is widespread, bankrupt governments have no money to alleviate their suffering with welfare, and pretty much all the worlds wealth is in the hands of a few AI billionaires.
To his credit, and unlike many of his high-tech peer group, Gates is at least worried about that.
In an interview this week, he made the case for taxing robots as they replace workers. Right now if a human worker does $50,000 worth of work in a factory, that income is taxed, he told Quartz. If a robot comes in to do the same thing, youd think we would tax the robot at a similar level.
He is far from alone. Last year, a draft report from the European Parliament made the case for making robots pay the same kind of payroll taxes as their human counterparts.
In France, Benoit Hamon came from nowhere to win the governing Socialist Party nomination for president on the strength of a plan for taxing machines to help pay for an ambitious universal basic income. In his ideal world, it appears, wed all relax all day, while the robots did all the work, and wed be paid from their taxes.
In fairness, you can see what they are all getting at. Robotics, like any innovative technology, will create a wave of disruption. There will be losers as well as winners, and there is no reason why the people whose jobs are taken should not be compensated. Payroll taxes make up a huge percentage of government revenues, especially in countries such as France. Lose that, and society may cease to function.
The trouble is, taxing robots is a terrible idea, and one that will only damage the economy. Heres why.
First, there is no evidence to suggest that robots will destroy jobs rather than simply change the type of work people do. We have a couple of hundred years of scare-mongering about new technology to tell us that every time a new type of machine comes along, everyone worries about what people will do instead. And then lots of new jobs get created that we never imagined before.
Gates, who destroyed the typing pool with his word-processing software, should know that better than anyone.
Next, robots wont be paying the taxes people will. It might seem obvious, but every automated machine will be owned by somebody, usually a person or a corporation. The tax will simply be paid by them. The robot itself wont have a salary, and wouldnt need one they dont eat, go out on dates, buy books or clothes, or do any of the things that people need money for. The tax will simply be paid by the owner. If we want them to pay higher taxes, we might as well charge them directly rather than do it via the robot.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, when you tax something you get less of it. Thats why we tax cigarettes or gas-guzzling cars at high rates because wed like people to give up smoking, or drive more fuel-efficient vehicles.
If we tax robots, at the margin, companies will use them a bit less often. Sure, that means we will keep a few low-paying jobs for a bit longer. But it will also slow down the rate of productivity growth, and in the medium term that will make everyone poorer.
If anything, we should offer business a tax break for installing robots not a penalty.
And thats before we even get into the issue of whether we want to pointlessly antagonize the robots by slapping taxes on them you have to assume that all the people making that case have never watched any sci-fi.
In truth, AI and robotics promises to fuel a new wave of growth, which the world could certainly use. Even if it doesnt, it will certainly replace lots of dull tasks, and remove a lot of daily drudgery. The last thing we want to do is tax that out of existence no matter how many software billionaires tell us we should.
Read this article:
Opinion: Taxing robots is Bill Gates's dumbest idea yet - MarketWatch
- Robotics Academy [Last Updated On: December 14th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 14th, 2016]
- KUKA Robotics | KUKA AG [Last Updated On: December 14th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 14th, 2016]
- Robotics - The Great Courses [Last Updated On: December 22nd, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 22nd, 2016]
- Robotics - reddit [Last Updated On: January 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 11th, 2017]
- Chatham Robotics Goes Undefeated and Moves On to State Championship - TAPinto.net [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Meridian robotics team gears up for Idaho FRC Regional - KBOI-TV [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Local robotics students headed to World Championship tournament - KOLO [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Report: Nearshoring favors robotics, will require heavy capital investment - Supply Chain Dive [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Belding hosts largest robotics competition in history of event - Greenville Daily News [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- First Tech Challenge: High schools battle in robotics competition - The Journal News | LoHud.com [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Robotics Team Takes Home Trophy at Lego Competition - Patch.com [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- OHS robotics club dazzles McKinley students - Southernminn.com [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Toyota Industries Acquires Warehouse Robotics Developer - Wall Street Journal [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- South High wins Volvo's robotics tournament - Herald-Mail Media [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Belding hosts robotics competition - Sentinel-Standard [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- CMS robotics program soars - SW News Media [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Update On The Megatrend of Robotics - CTOvision (blog) [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- 33C3: Edible Soft Robotics - Hackaday [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Shopping robots on the march in Ocado - BBC News [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Keller students Starstruck on robotics - Fort Worth Star Telegram [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Our obsession with robots keeps getting creepier - New York Post [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Rethink Robotics makes its workplace bots easier to train and redeploy - TechCrunch [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Donation will cover costs for Sequim robotic competition - Peninsula Daily News [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- Derby Middle School robotics club competes at high school competition - The Derby Informer [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- Raspberry Pi-powered arm: This kit aims to make robotics simple enough for kids - TechRepublic [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- WPI Robotics Team Has a Mission with Mars | News | WPI - WPI News [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- Rehab robotics field promises to return control, mobility to aging population - ScienceBlog.com (blog) [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- Rethink's Robots Get Massive Software Upgrade, Rodney Brooks So Excited - IEEE Spectrum [Last Updated On: February 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 8th, 2017]
- Robotics: A robot that flies like a bat : Nature : Nature Research - Nature.com [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Robotics teams at CCS stay busy at tournaments - Imperial Republican [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Rethink Robotics rethinks its software | ZDNet - ZDNet [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Hartland robotics teams take on the FIRST Tech challenge at state competition - LC Sussex Sun [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Home-schooled students studying robotics - Valencia County News Bulletin [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Agility Robotics Introduces Cassie, a Dynamic and Talented Robot Delivery Ostrich - IEEE Spectrum [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Memphis robotics team headed to Super-Regionals - New Baltimore Voice Newspapers [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Patriot Robotics Alliance upsets Brentwood Academy Alliances - Clarksville Now [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Raptor legs & human hips: Giant leap for walking robots - RT [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- How drones and robotics may shape the future of conflict under President Trump - PRI [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Robotics teams wins at state meet - The Citizen.com [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Ford Bets $1B on Startup Founded by Waymo, Uber Vets - ABC News [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- South Beach robotics squad advances to super regionals - The Daily World [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- Personal robotics the next technological revolution: Dr Vivian Balakrishnan - Channel NewsAsia [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- This bipedal robot could deliver your packages one day - The Verge - The Verge [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- Robotics event offers lesson in teamwork - Lewiston Morning Tribune (subscription) [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- Essex County Freeholders Honor Livingston Robotics Club Teams - TAPinto.net [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- College Town: WPI Robotics team aims for $1M NASA prize - Worcester Telegram [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- Alice Shaw robotics team building invention to save wolves | Local ... - Lompoc Record [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- Ford invests $1B in robotics startup in driverless car quest - CBS News [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- Freshman Caldwell team takes first place in Regional Robotics Tournament - Idaho Press-Tribune [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- What went seriously wrong with Lily Robotics - VentureBeat [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- Face off: Marion students compete in robotics competition - The Exponent Telegram (press release) (registration) [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- Robotics Competition slated for Monday - San Angelo Standard Times [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Cornerstone Prep robotics team brings home trophy in first year - MDJOnline.com [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Center Grove robotics team headed to state competition - Daily Journal [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Hundreds piled into a Fort Mill gym. They cheered. They competed. They drove robots. - The Herald [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- My Turn: Arts education paved the way for girls' robotics win - AZCentral.com [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Young Alberta engineers face off in robotics showdown - CBC.ca [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Cougar robotics team advances to Super-Regionals - Times Bulletin - Times Bulletin [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- South Carroll Robotics teams compete at Maryland State Robotics Competition - Carroll County Times [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Cave Spring High School's Robotics Club wins in the First Tech ... - Roanoke Times [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- FIRST Robotics Competition - Wikipedia [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Designing robots to look more like ostriches can solve a key problem for our future biped overlords - Quartz [Last Updated On: February 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 14th, 2017]
- More than 1000 high school students expected to Battlefield HS robotics tournament - PotomacLocal.com [Last Updated On: February 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 14th, 2017]
- Event to look at Scotland's pivotal role in robotics - The Scotsman [Last Updated On: February 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 14th, 2017]
- Kennett Coders to compete in NH State Robotics Championships on Saturday - Conway Daily Sun [Last Updated On: February 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 14th, 2017]
- Are there enough robots? - Robotics Tomorrow (press release) [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Girl Scouts of Southern Illinois robotics team makes state tournament - Alton Telegraph [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Intuition Robotics raised $6 million for its ElliQ elder care assistant robot - TechCrunch [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Richmond robotics team gears up for districts - New Baltimore Voice Newspapers [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Microsoft lets you crash drones and robots in its new real world simulator - The Verge [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Makeblock's Lego-like 'Neuron' teaches kids robotics and code - Engadget [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- West Ridge robotics team maneuvers into national championship - Austin American-Statesman [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Immokalee High team set for robotics state championships Friday - Naples Daily News [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- What has Robotics got in store for our future? - RTE.ie [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- Uber Is Becoming a Robotics Company, CEO Says - Yahoo News [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- 3Doodler's new kits help kids craft their own robots - Engadget - Engadget [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- Magnetic Control Could Help Robots Navigate Inside Your Body - IEEE Spectrum [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- Boston's new hub, MassRobotics, is like a WeWork for robotics startups - TechCrunch [Last Updated On: February 16th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 16th, 2017]
- 3Doodler announces a robotics kit, Star Trek and Powerpuff Girls ... - TechCrunch [Last Updated On: February 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 17th, 2017]
- Chart: Are Robots Replacing High-Cost Workers? - Seeking Alpha [Last Updated On: February 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 17th, 2017]