With the election coming up in November, many wonder if we could have a contested election and how likely is that to happen? USA TODAY
WASHINGTON President Donald Trumps last political rally in Oklahomashowed the risks of campaigning in the age of coronavirus.
His planned rally in New Hampshire could bea test run for how those type of big campaign events will go forward in the future if they go on at all.
This rally is really a make-or-break moment for Trump, said Dan Eberhart, an energy company executive and GOP fund-raiser. This needs to be a success to prove out the strategy that in this kind of COVID environment, these kinds of rallies still have legs, still have purpose and that this type of campaigning can continue.
So far the latest push isn't going according to plan: The White House and Trump campaign announced Friday that the New Hampshire rally expected on Saturday would be postponed. Trump officials cited Tropical Storm Fay in postponingthe eventand vowed to reschedule soon.
More: Trump postpones New Hampshire campaign rally, citing Tropical Storm Fay
Trumps New Hampshire rally, which was expected to be at an airport hangar at the Portsmouth International Airport at Pease, was plannedas the president is trying to recharge his struggling campaign amid a recent spike in coronavirus cases and as polls show him trailing the presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, in November.
The event wasshadowed by questions over what went wrong at his rally last month in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Even amid lingering concerns over the coronavirus pandemic, campaign officials hyped up that event and boasted that they had received requests for 1 million tickets. Turnout was far smaller than expected, with just 6,200 people showing up and leaving Trump addressing a lot of empty seats in a 19,000-capacity arena.
Whats more, eight campaign staffers on the advance team and two Secret Service agents who worked in Tulsa ahead of that event tested positive for coronavirus. Tulsas top health official said Wednesday that the rally and the protests that accompanied it likely contributed to the citys recent surge in coronavirus cases.
COVID-19 concerns: Doctors worry about coronavirus risks at Trump's New Hampshire rally
President Donald Trump rejected the Supreme Court ruling and declared that the subpoenas of a New York prosecutor for the billionaire presidents tax records was "a political witch hunt the likes of which nobody's ever seen before." (July 9) AP Domestic
The event that had been set forSaturday would have beenTrumps second in-person rally since much of the country went into lockdown over coronavirus. Thenumber of coronavirus cases in the U.S. have topped 3 million, more than 133,000 Americans have died from the disease and as the U.S. continues to set a daily record of new cases.
The Trump campaign said it intended todistribute face masks at the event and will encourage attendees to wear them, even though Trump himself has resisted wearing a mask in public.
In New Hampshire, therally has raised red flags for many local officials concerned about the potential spread of coronavirus from the event. A handful of Portsmouth officials want to mandate that face masks be worn by people attending the event, but Mayor Rick Becksted doesnt favor such a mandatory policy and says the city has no jurisdiction over the federally owned land where the event will be held.
Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has said it is imperative attendees at the rally wear masks but that he wont mandate them. Sununu has said he plans to meet Trump at the airport when he arrives, but that he wont attend the rally.
Holding political rallies while much of the nation is concerned about coronavirus poses real risks for Trump, said David McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith College in Raleigh, North Carolina.
He is a visual reminder of the coronavirus as he speaks, McLennan said. Hes speaking in front of big, often unmasked crowds and sometimes not-so-big crowds at a time when everybody is paying attention to these (coronavirus) numbers to some degree.
That being said, Im not sure the president has any other tools for his campaign. Hes kind of between a rock and a hard place in that thats what he did in 2016 to great effect.
Off to Texas: Donald Trump plans to travel to West Texas for campaign fundraiser despite COVID spike
Supporters listen as US President Donald Trump speaks during a Students for Trump event at the Dream City Church in Phoenix, Arizona.(Photo: SAUL LOEB, AFP via Getty Images)
Trump is trying to replicate the campaign formula that worked well for him in 2016, said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire.
The old saying is campaigns are ultimately reflections of the candidate, Scala said. I think for the candidates own morale, he feels the need to be out and about and doing these sorts of things that served him well the last time he ran for office.
Trump lost New Hampshire to Democrat Hillary Clinton by just 2,736 votes. A poll last month by St. Anselm Colleges New Hampshire Institute of Politics showed him trailing Biden in the Granite State by 7 points.
But while a campaign rally will help fire up Trumps base and provide him with a made-for-television moment, it is unlikely to move other voters into his camp and might even turn off suburban voters, Scala said.
In New Hampshire, his real dilemma right now is in the prosperous suburbs, where you find a lot of college-educated voters who are well off, Scala said. They likely still have their jobs and so forth, but they are anxious about whats happening and what will come.
What some fear will come along with the rally is a spike in coronavirus in a state that has fewer than 6,000 reported cases.
Living in New Hampshire feels a bit like living in a bubble because in the state the numbers of cases is very low and the number of hospitalizations is low, Scala said. All of the metrics point in the right direction. But for a New Hampshire voter looking around the country, we feel very much like an island.
So for the president to come in does feel a bit like its impinging on that bubble. There are all of those concerns of what he brings with him. People come in from out of state. Will it cause a spike in cases? It will raise the anxiety level at a time when a lot of people are understandably very anxious.
Tax decision: Trump, Democrats both hoped for big political wins in Supreme Court decision on taxes. Neither got one
Regardless, Trump needs a robust turnout on Saturday to reboot his campaign and move on from what happened in Tulsa, Eberhart said.
The rallies are a barometer of voter sentiment, the living embodiment of Trumps slumping popularity, he said. If the New Hampshire crowd is anemic, it sends the signal to donors that public support for the president is subpar and that they may be throwing good money after bad. He needs a full house and a raucous crowd to recharge his re-elect campaign.
If he doesnt get that, he needs to find another way to reach voters, Eberhart said.
The Tulsa rally was widely panned by the media, he said. If the same happens in New Hampshire, he cant hold a third and a fourth (rally) and just have it continue to pull down the campaign. Its just not going to work. (The campaign) has to rebound or he has to completely shift to some other way of campaigning.
Michael Collins covers the White House. Follow him on Twitter @mcollinsNEWS.
Contributing: Hadley Barndollar of seacoastonline.com
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Trump sought to recharge his campaign with New Hampshire rally. It's now on hold - USA TODAY
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