Last years song of the summer competition wasnt really a competition at all: As It Was, the monster hit from Harry Styles third solo album Harrys House, spent a total of 15 weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100 chart last year, including prolonged stays in the top spot during June and July 2022. Considering that As It Was logged the most weeks at No. 1 for any song by a solo artist in Hot 100 history, there was little doubt that Styles would finish atop Billboards annual Songs of the Summer chart, which runs each year from Memorial Day Weekend to Labor Day Weekend.

But heres a fun fact about As It Was: It was released on April 1, 2022, more than a month before the Songs of the Summer chart even launched. And with its one-year anniversary just a couple of days away, its fair to suggest that the song of the summer for 2023 is about to be released or may already be out in the world at this moment.

After all, plenty of songs that have been released in the early days of a calendar year have gone on to dominate the dog days: DaBaby and Roddy Ricchs Rockstar in 2020, Lil Nas Xs Old Town Road in 2019 and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankees Despacito in 2017, for instance, were all released months before they powered their ways to the top of the Hot 100 and were crowned the song of their respective summers. Even though its still only March, its worth taking a look at the current field of contenders, and identifying which songs are currently favorites, which tracks could swoop in from the outside, and which artists should never be counted out, especially given recent context clues.

So roll out the beach towel, put on some sunscreen and crank up the warm-weather playlist: its our annual way-too-early song of the summer breakdown!

During a relatively quiet moment in Selena Gomezs recording career, the superstar has unwittingly tossed her hat in the ring of the summer songs showdown: Her appearance on the remix to Calm Down, the dynamic single from Afrobeats star Rema, has helped it become an even bigger smash, both within the United States (No. 8 peak on the Hot 100 this week) and outside of it (No. 1 on the Global Excl. U.S. last year). Combine the songs major presence on streaming, continued growth at radio, current No. 1 spot on the Shazam Top 200, correct tempo for summer dance parties and Gomezs presence providing a familiar face to programmers, and what do you have? A summer thats defined by Calm Down, potentially.

As it climbs to No. 9 on this weeks Hot 100, Players and its playful flip of Grandmaster Flash & The Furious Fives The Message hook seem primed for a big spring: Coi Lerays breakthrough hit took off on TikTok and has now crossed over to multiple radio formats, with a bright, bouncy sound that will be perfect for warm-weather playlists. If Players can preserve its momentum and perhaps add a bit more with a new summer-ready remix? Leray could be in the drivers seat of the summer song conversation.

Last Night recently became Morgan Wallens first Hot 100 chart-topper, but more importantly to the song of the summer competition, has turned into the de facto breakout hit from the country superstars huge-streaming One Thing at a Time album. Wallens 36-track opus already boasts five songs that have reached the top 10 of the Hot 100, and none have spent as much time at or near the pinnacle as Last Night, which comes in at No. 2 on this weeks chart. As One Thing at a Time logs another week atop the Billboard 200 and Wallen prepares for his stadium tour, its clear that he and this album will be commercial forces this summer and that Last Night is in this race for the long haul.

Although this union of two ultra-promising newcomers went viral and zoomed into the top 10 of the Hot 100 last month, could PinkPantheress Boys a Liar remix with ice Spice have already peaked, sliding down to No. 6 on the chart after previously reaching No. 3? Not necessarily: Boys a Liar Pt. 2 can still grow by leaps and bounds at radio, is still holding strong on streaming platforms, and is brimming with the type of hooks that arent likely to burn up too fast. PinkPantheress and Ice Spice could each hypothetically release new singles in the coming months to contend this summer, but Boys a Liar Pt. 2, with their powers combined, has too much potential right now to dismiss.

The lead single to Ed Sheerans upcoming album (Subtract) is a meditation on grief, more subtly produced and decidedly downbeat compared to his previous smashes. As such, Eyes Closed may be in for a muted chart bow by Sheerans standards, based on early streaming returns. Still, you cant count him out in this race: the stadium headliner has a tendency of turning relatively slow-starting singles, from Perfect to I Dont Care with Justin Bieber to Shivers, into juggernauts that spend months in heavy rotation on pop radio. Eyes Closed has the hook, and Sheeran has the pedigree, to keep this among the biggest contenders.

Kill Bill was both one of the defining songs of the winter as well as SZAs biggest solo hit to date, and even as were approaching four months since the release of SOS, the album and its breakout single both remain in the top 3 of the Billboard 200 and Hot 100 charts, respectively. Meanwhile, Snooze continues to linger on streaming charts and within the top 40 of the Hot 100, as the presumptive next single from SOS once Kill Bill starts to slip; the sumptuous love song may not carry the tempo of a typical summer song, but nothing SZA does is typical including her mainstream stardom and Snooze shouldnt be discounted.

Speaking of songs that could follow an A-list artists current hit, Watch This turned into an unexpected streaming sensation for Lil Uzi Vert, whos currently riding high with the top 10 hit Just Wanna Rock, after producer ARIZONATEARS scooped up the unreleased track and his Pluggnb Remix was officially sanctioned by Uzis Atlantic Records home. Uzi still has juice with Rock they just brought a choreo-heavy performance of the song to Fallon a few days ago but the frenetic Watch This has stayed on the Hot 100 after a viral breakthrough last month, and has made waves on multiple international charts. If Team Uzi switches their promotional focus to this excavated hit in the next month or two, we might have something to, ahem, watch.

Two years after BTS took home the Song of the Summer 2021 crown with Butter, Jimin is representing the world-conquering group in this years showdown with Like Crazy, the focus track (available in both Korean and English versions) from his recently released project Face. Like Crazy is a bit of soulful synth-pop that establishes Jimins solo approach, and has shown promising signs on global streaming charts in its first week of release. Well see if the track can carve out a spot at U.S. radio in the coming months, although if ARMY focuses its attention on Like Crazy, its crossover potential is high.

After collaborating with artists like Latto, DaBaby and Fivio Foreign and touring with Rod Wave, Toosii has a bonafide solo hit on his hands with Favorite Song, which rode plenty of sped-up TikTok versions onto the Hot 100 last month and has been flying up the chart, jumping 15 spots to No. 21 this week. The woozy R&B hook of Favorite Song is definitely worthy of a breakthrough moment, and while Toosii doesnt have the mainstream history of some of his competitors, the velocity with which his single keeps rising gives it a shot in this race.

Right below Favorite Song on the current Hot 100 chart, at No. 22, is TQG, the kinetic team-up between Karol G whose Maana Ser Bonito album made history last month by becoming the first all-Spanish language album by a female artist to top the Billboard 200 chart and Shakira, in the middle of a career renaissance thanks to her Bizarrap collaboration Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53, and now this. Both tracks reached the top 10 of the Hot 100 for the veteran superstar upon their respective debuts, and TQG has topped charts around the world in the weeks since. Once the weather heats up, well be hearing TQG a whole lot in club mixes, which will certainly help its shot at a prolonged chart run.

Former Disney Channel star Coco Jones appears to have a legitimate hit on her hands with the tender R&B ballad ICU, which debuts at No. 88 on this weeks Hot 100. After Jones (who is also starring in the Peacock series Bel-Air) signed to Def Jam a year ago, ICU was released as part of her debut EP, What I Didnt Tell You, in November, and has since spent the past few months becoming a favorite of TikTok lip-syncers. Radio prospects for ICU are already pretty strong, and signs point to upward momentum for Jones, whos harnessing the support of her longtime Disney fans to ensure a successful adult crossover.

When one of the most consistent hitmakers in modern pop confirms plans to release an album this year, that artist deserves to be factored into the summer song competition. Doja Cat teased a 2023 release for the follow-up to 2021s Planet Her one of the most hits-packed albums in recent memory, with Kiss Me More, Woman and Need to Know all becoming enduring top 10 smashes earlier this year, then floated a potential title, Hellmouth, a week ago. Even if a new album gets scheduled for the fall, perhaps a lead single would arrive for the summer months?

The Australian rapper-singer is gearing up for the release of his first official album this year, having already issued multiple new tracks Love Again, Kids are Growing Up (Part 1) and I Guess Its Love? in the first quarter of 2023. Those tracks have yet to gain mainstream traction, but it only takes one flash point for LAROI to leap into this race especially considering that he scored one of the biggest hits of this decade, the Justin Bieber collaboration Stay, barely 18 months ago. The multi-quadrant success of that song wasnt a fluke, and dont be surprised if LAROI has something else up his sleeve in the coming months.

Will All of the Girls You Loved Before, an unreleased Lover-era castoff that was recently unveiled, continue to push upwards on the Hot 100 after debuting at No. 12 this week? How about Lavender Haze, which is climbing back up the chart (at No. 17 this week) and gaining radio momentum as the follow-up to Midnights smash Anti-Hero? What if there are more re-recorded songs, more unreleased tracks, more Midnights hits, or even more new music? Its hard to say exactly which Swift song is going to be in contention this summer, but as she forges ahead with her mega-selling Eras tour, Taylor will be top of mind, and cant be counted out.

Utopia, Scotts long-awaited follow-up to his blockbuster 2018 album Astroworld, has long been rumored for a June 2023 release, although nothing official has been announced. Whenever it arrives, Scotts next solo project is going to have enormous commercial potential, considering that he was able to drive multiple non-album singles, from Highest in the Room to The Scotts with Kid Cudi to Franchise with Young Thug and M.I.A., to the top of the Hot 100. Time will tell how much fallout from the 2021 Astroworld Festival tragedy impacts his commercial prospects, but his track record as a mainstream fixture puts him in play for the top spot of the Hot 100 whenever he does fully return.

And finally, we have the hope that Renaissance, Beyoncs 2022 house music opus, really is going to be Act I of a three-part project! Although no details of a potential Act II, including the timetable of its release, have emerged, Queen Bey has the chance to rule consecutive summers, after Renaissance arrived last July and brought lead single Break My Soul with it to the top of the Billboard charts. The Renaissance world tour kicks off in May lets cross our fingers that theres a new song of the summer contender to help launch it in style.

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Song of the Summer 2023: Early Breakdown of Pop Contenders - Billboard