Who wouldnt want to learn how to win more often when playing casino games? After all, if you master winning more often, cant you get rich in a short period of time?
Its actually more complicated than that. Depending on the payout odds for a casino game, you might still lose money even if youre winning half the time.
This post explains how to win more often when playing casino games and why that isnt necessarily profitable in the long run.
Suppose you want to learn how to win more often playing roulette for real money. This is a subject Im sure I can help you with.
The first step to winning more often at roulette is to choose the bets with the higher probability of winning. This means betting on red, for example. Thats the bet most likely to win. On an American roulette wheel, you have a 47.37% probability of winning.
A roulette wheel has 38 numbers on it. 18 of them are red, so the probability of winning a bet on red is 18/38. Thats where the 47.37% comes from.
If you bet on a single number in roulette, the probability of winning that bet is obviously much lower1/38, or 2.63%. Theres more to it than that, though. You also need to keep in mind the payout odds.
Youve probably heard or read the expression house edge before. Its just a term used to describe the casinos statistical advantage over the player. Its expressed as a percentage.
The idea is that if you look at a large dataset of bets, your average loss per bet will eventually look like the house edge. In roulette, the house edge for that bet on red is 5.26%.
Would you be surprised to learn that the house edge for the bet on a single number is ALSO 5.26%? Thats because the house edge accounts for the payout size for the bet.
On a single number bet, youll win less often. On average, youll win 1 out of 38 spins. But when you do win, youll win 35 to 1 on your money. Bet $100, and youll win $3,500 when you win.
On that bet on red, youll win WAY more often. On average 18 out of 38 spins. But when you win this bet, youll only win even money. Bet $100, and youll win $100 when you win. But if you play either way for 10,000 spins or so, youll eventually see the same resultsa loss of about $5.26 every time you bet $100.
You actually have a lower probability of winning a hand of blackjack than you do of winning an even money roulette bet. The probability of winning a hand of blackjack is significantly lower than the probability of winning an even money roulette bet.
?
Youll only win a hand of blackjack 42.22% of the time. But everyone knows that blackjack has a much lower house edge than roulette. Its about 1% instead of 5%. How can that be if its harder to win in blackjack?
The difference has to do with the probability of getting the bonus payout for a natural, or blackjack. Thats a two-card hand that totals 21. The only way to get a blackjack is to get a two-card hand with a 10 and an ace in it.
The standard payoff for a blackjack is 3 to 2. It happens often enough that it improves the house edge dramatically, assuming youre playing with basic blackjack strategy.
So, you see, just because youre more likely to win some bets, it doesnt mean that you can generate a long-term profit from that strategy.
In the long run, if your hope is to be profitable, your best chance is to stick with the game with the lowest house edge. You could get lucky and see a standard deviation early on that will make you a profitable player.
The truth is, though, that ANY time you play a game where the house has an edge over the player, you will eventually lose all your money. Its just a matter of how fast or slow you lose it. The other consideration is how much fun youre having during the experience.
Casinos use a formula to estimate how much theyll make from a casino game in the long run. Gamblers can use the same formula to decide how unprofitable such a game is for the player. The formula is simple:
House edge X hourly action = expected hourly loss
You need a second calculation to get your average hourly action, but its just another simple multiplication problem:
Average number of bets per hour X average size of bet = hourly action
Slot machines are some of the most expensive games in the casino. Lets assume youre playing Megabucks, which costs $3 per spin to play. Lets also assume that the house edge on the game is 9%. (We dont know what the real number is, but thats probably not a bad guess.)
An average slot machine player might make 500 spins per hour. At $3 per spin, your hourly action is $1,500. With a house edge of 9%, your expected loss is $135.
Standard deviation might result in an hour or two of wins, but once youve put in about 20 hours of play, you should be coming pretty close to the expected loss per hour. In fact, by then, you should have lost about $2,700 on the game. Thats a sobering thought
Lets look at another exampleblackjack. Lets assume you play with perfect basic strategy, and youve found a game with good rules. The house edge you face is 0.5%.
Lets also assume youre playing for $5 per hand. If youre playing heads up with the dealer, you might be getting 200 hands per hour.
Your hourly action is $1,000. If you lose 0.5% of that on average, youll lose an average of $5 per hour. You have a couple of questions to ask yourself.
Would you rather lose $5 per hour gambling or $135 per hour gambling? Are you getting an additional $130 per hour of entertainment playing the slot machine game instead of the blackjack game?
If youre a recreational gambler, you should change your mindset and start thinking about gambling as an entertainment activity. Then, you can analyze whether youre getting your moneys worth from your entertainment dollars.
Even though every game in the casino has a built-in house edge, you can still find ways to get an edge when gambling. If you repeatedly place bets with an edge, youre considered an advantage gambler. And you can use the same formula as above for calculating those projected profits.
Heres an example: Lets say you learn how to count cards, and you estimate that you have a 1% edge over the casino when counting. Lets also say that you ONLY play heads-up, and your average bet size is $20. (Since youre raising and lowering the size of your bets based on the count, the average will almost always have to be higher than $5 per hand.)
So, youre playing 200 hands per hour at $20 per hand, and youre putting $4000 per hour into action. If youre estimating that youll win 1% of that, youre looking at hourly winnings of $40 on average.
The example above may not seem like a lot, but if you can get in 10 hours at the tables per week, you can make an extra $20,000 income over the course of a year.
The easiest way to increase your annual winnings is to increase your average bet size. To do that, though, you need to have a bigger bankroll.
Standard deviation is the expression that mathematicians use to describe the deviations from the expected results in a probability experiment. It means that in the short term, random events dont usually hit the expectation, theyre usually higher or lower.
Heres an example: You flip a coin 6 times in a row. The expectation is that youll get heads 3 times and tails 3 times. But it wouldnt be unusual to get heads 2 times and tails 4 times.
It wouldnt even be that crazy to see heads once and tails 5 times. Its not unthinkable to get heads all 6 times, either. Those are all examples of deviations from the mean. The bigger the deviation, the bigger the multiple of the standard deviation is.
How does that apply to our hypothetical card counter at the blackjack table? It means that even when youre playing with an edge over the house, you might go on a losing streak in the short run.
And if the losing streak is long enough, you can go broke before you ever reach the long run.
The possibility that this will happen is called the risk of ruin. Its a probability, too.
If you have a small bankroll compared to your average bet size, you have a bigger risk of ruin than if you have a larger bankroll compared to your average bet size.
If you really want to be profitable in the long run, you must have a big enough casino bankroll for the action to minimize your risk of ruin.
How can you win more often when playing casino games? Thats easy. Just choose the bets with the highest probability of winning.
But youre asking the wrong question. Youre probably more interested in getting a long-term edge over the casino.
Most gamblers just arent up for the dedication and work required to pull that off, but it can be done.
Counting cards is just one way to do it. Read my other blog posts for additional techniques for getting an edge and beating the casinos.
Read more from the original source:
How to Win More Money Gambling - Winning More With Casino Games - BestUSCasinos.org
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