Meteorologist help offshore operators make time-critical decisions about evacuations, especially ... [+] days out when the storm is still developing. It requires advanced prediction models accounting for weather and maritime data, such as sea heights and wave intensity, and frequent communication.

Due to the vulnerability of offshore operations during hurricane season, most operators in the Gulf of Mexico begin planning months in advance with tabletop exercises and drills. These are necessary to ensure that all members of the organization are aware of protocols and procedures ahead of a significant weather event.Often, a professional meteorologist is asked to develop a mock weather scenario, provide briefings, and answer questions throughout the drill. This ensures a level of realism and allows the participants to become familiar with the products and guidance in a real weather scenario.

But when the offshore companies conducted tabletop exercises for the 2020 season, its most likely they didnt anticipate the double whammy of HurricanesMarcoandLaura. And as more, and deeper, offshore platforms are constructed, the threat to crew and operations becomes greater, making it even more critical for meteorologists to have an active partnership with offshore operators.

Offshore companies are particularly vulnerable to tropical storms for multiple reasons in addition to the location of their assets. First and foremost is the evacuation time required to move crews to safety. Evacuating personnel from an offshore platform starts days in advance, cascading from non-essential personnel to those that shut down production.

It requirescoordinating transport, by boat or helicopter, which comes with its own set of protocol and risks. For example, if a company waits too long to evacuate, it may be unsafe for a helicopter to land, or there may not be enough time for the helicopter to take the entire crew. Typically, it takes days for multiple helicopters to transport crews to safety. The alternative is that the remaining crew will have to weather the storm on the platform unprotected and vulnerable.

Protecting equipment requiresa special shutdown protocolthat also requires days of preparation. And then there is the cost associated with ceasing production. Making the call to cease or continue production is a multi-million dollar decision that offshore operators dont want to get wrong.

TheAmerican Petroleum Institutereports theGulf of Mexico provides 16 percent of the oil and about five percent of the natural gas produced in the United States. In advance of Hurricane Laura making landfall,oil producers shut 84 percent of the Gulf of Mexicos offshore production, similar to the impact of Hurricane Katrina.

So how does a meteorologist help offshore operators make these time-critical decisions, especially days out when the storm is still developing? It requires advanced prediction models accounting for weather and maritime data, such as sea heights and wave intensity, and frequent communication. When a tropical storm develops, meteorologists begin providing daily briefings and T-time reports to the organization. The T-time is the transition time, in hours, it takes to secure a platform and evade a storm and can range from 5 to 120 hours or more.For organizations with multiple sites, offshore and onshore, meteorologists will provide additional site-specific threat reports that show expected arrival time of impact such as winds, rainfall amounts and storm surge.

As we have often seen, as these storms developed -Hurricane Marco lost intensity while Hurricane Laura became strongerconstant communication about evolving weather conditions is key. Meteorologists conducted numerous conference calls and presentations about these two threats days before Laura ever became a hurricane.

In May,tropical storm outlooks indicated an active and early seasonand forecasts continue to show an active season before it winds down in October. So, while meteorologists dont make the call for when an offshore operation should evacuate, they do play a critical role in keeping the crew and operations safe. By providing accurate and reliableinformation, starting well in advance of a developing storm, meteorologists help offshore operators be confident in making criticalgo or no-go evacuation decisions.

Read more:

When Is It Time To Evacuate The Offshore Platform? - Forbes