In news today, COVID-19 infections in Italy hit 10,149 more than anywhere else in the world except for China. The number of deaths from the coronavirus rose in Italy by 168 in just one day, from 463 to 631.

This is the point of view of Prof. F. Sisci, an Italian sinologist from Beijing, China:

So far, the government has chased the emergency, but in this way, Italy will be overwhelmed. We need a 3- to 6-month emergency government and NATO intervention.

Dear director, Italy must regain control of a situation that is getting out of hand and is in danger of blowing everything up as soon as possible.

Coronavirus can be overcome, but clarity is needed. The country needs a special 3 to 6-month government that will introduce martial law, to be agreed strictly with the allies, and specifically NATO, to defeat the virus and stop the collapse of the economy. It is, in fact, a situation of war.

China is an extremely conservative and prudent country. It sounded the alarm on January 23 after almost 2 months of waiting and quarantined, in fact, not only Wuhan and Hubei but the whole country. Now, perhaps in a couple of weeks, some cities will return to normal life.

So, beyond the official numbers provided, at some point, there was a real fear that if the epidemic had not been brought under control there would have been a massacre.

Lets look at some numbers. It is known that 13.8% of those infected get sick in serious conditions and are saved in most cases only if they go to intensive care. Otherwise, they die. So, the subtle point is to avoid the spread of the infected with coronavirus.

If the number of infected remains under control, mortality, due to that 14% who needs intensive care, is not dramatic in the end. The problem, on the other hand, is if the number of infected people goes out of control; in this case, hospitals are no longer able to offer intensive care to everyone.

If unchecked, the coronavirus could affect the entire Italian population, but lets say that in the end, only 30% become infected, about 20 million. If of these making a discount 10% goes into crisis, this means that without intensive care it is destined to succumb. It would be 2 million direct deaths, plus all indirect deaths resulting from a collapse of the health system and the resulting social and economic order.

During the plague, half of the deaths are due to evil, the other half to social unrest. Manzoni (Italian writer, 1785-1873) recalls that in the plague in Milan there were bloody attacks on the ovens; today riots have started in prisons. What will happen next?

As a comparison, just think that during the First World War there were 650,000 military casualties out of a population of 40 million. The disaster caused by the prospective coronavirus is worse than an armed conflict. This does not only concern Italy; this would require a NATO summit on health, safety, and economics. Is it an apocalypse scenario? Yes: it must frighten, but not panic, because it is not carved in stone.

It should be understood that if you dont prepare yourself, if you dont protect yourself, then it will be a massacre. But if, vice versa, and only if you really prepare and organize yourself, the dead can be almost those of a normal influence.

The cost to the economy is another chapter. It is like flying: if you do it by plane, it is safer than walking; if you try it by jumping from the tenth floor believing you have the wings of a bird, it is certain death. So, preparation is everything. We cannot choose the coercive method of China, which has blocked everything for 40 days. But even in that case, not everything is to be discarded.

Perhaps [we] can also learn from the more sophisticated method employed by Taiwanese democracy, which stopped the epidemic with a series of precise and capillary measures. In both cases, the active cooperation of the population, who trusted the government, was crucial.

In Italy, perhaps it is not the same thing. So, you need to change your pace, and, forgive me, maybe only you can do it, Mr. President Sergio Mattarella. The indecisions, alarmism, and optimism spread by alternating current, the leaks denied and not denied, like the last sensational one, which concerned the provision signed by the Prime Minister Conte Sunday night, reduced the government[s] credibility.

Britain, in the midst of the Battle of England, when the Nazis bombed London and threatened a landing, changed government, did not surrend[er] and won the war. Italy must change pace and must do so immediately before health care collapses and coronavirus deaths count in the thousands. From there to the millions, the step could be very short.

As transcribed by eTN Italy correspondent Mario Masciullo

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