It looks like the commercial space race might be over before it's even really begun.
Last week, Congress approved a spending bill that demands NASA immediately choose one company for the commercial crew program, and this week they will be voting on it. Killing the private competition is meant to save money and speed up development, but more likely it will be devastating to NASA's already stretched budget.
ANALYSIS: Money: The Next Human Spaceflight Incentive?
Currently, NASA is providing subsidies to companies vying to develop a viable manned launch system. There are a lot of interesting and promising commercial programs under development right now. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos Blue Origin project is working on a launch vehicle, Sierra Nevada is working on the Dream Chaser orbital vehicle, ATK just announced its intention to add a spacecraft to its Liberty rocket, SpaceX has its Falcon 9 and Dragon, and Orbital Sciences has its Antares rocket and Cygnus spacecraft.
SpaceX and Orbital Sciences are the front runners, both planning flights to the ISS this year to demonstrate their capabilities. SpaceX is scheduled to launch this coming Saturday. But these missions are unmanned cargo flights; manned mission aren't expected until 2017. So why stop the competition before NASA has a viable commercial crew system?
The short answer is money.
Commercial crew projects fall under the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program that was started in 2006 with the goal of easing the transition out of the shuttle era by having private companies take over the low Earth orbital launches allowing NASA to focus on its loftier goals of deep space manned missions on Saturn V-type powerful rockets. There's no money for the COTS program in NASA's 2013 budget. The bill will remove continued COTS costs and streamline the commercial launch effort by giving one company more money to develop its system faster.
ANALYSIS: NASA Deputy Administrator Faces the Tough Questions
The problem with the short answer is that it's short sighted. The layered approach with multiple companies vying for the contract to build a new space transportation system is exactly what NASA needs right now. The competition has yielded creativity and innovation. The rockets and spacecraft these companies have come up with has cost NASA millions instead of billions since the agency isn't alone in footing the bill, and there are clearly viable systems on the horizon.
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Might NASA be Forced to Kill the Commercial Space Race?
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