Sanofi (NYSE: SNY) has had a bumper year thus far. Its revenue has exceeded analysts expectations and its share price jumped more than 20% YTD. It has outperformed the S&P 500 as well as the NYSE ARCA Pharmaceutical Index. That performance means Sanofi has successfully dodged the struggles plaguing other pharmaceutical firms after the shenanigans surrounding the late American Health Care Act. But a series of scandals and changing political attitudes have sounded alarm bells for the companys fortunes.
As Bon Jovi put it in his 1988 ballad: It'll take more than a doctor to prescribe a remedy. I got lots of money, but it isn't what I need. More than anywhere else in the world, access to medicine in the United States is predicated on a patients ability to pay and since American patients often pay far more for the same drugs, Sanofi, as well as most of its peers, are in for some choppy waters ahead.
A recent Health Affairs study comparing drug prices revealed that Americans pay on average more than a 60% premium over other Western nations all while unravelling the pharmaceutical industrys arguments that hiking prices pays for research & development. Companies including Biogen (BIIB), Amgen (AMGN) and Pfizer (PFE) were estimated to have spent less than half their 2015 profits from US premium prices on R&D. Bad press, especially in light of pharma-bro Martin Shkrelis unscrupulous drug price gouging and (unrelated) conviction for fraud, is adding to growing anti-pharma sentiment and making it harder for the industry to fix its public image.
Drug pricing has likewise been occupying President Trump, as he re-entered the fray with a speech in March, calling the prices of prescription drugs "outrageous" and prompting a dip in both the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index and the S&P Biotech ETF (XBI). Since the market reaction was more muted than his January lambasting of drug makers when he claimed they "are getting away with murder", it seems the sensitivity to Trump outbursts and policy threats is waning. Trump did however vow to tackle the issue of drug pricing after successful 'repealing and replacing' Obamacare, and, with the American Health Care Acts spectacular failure, the Trump administration may yet turn the erstwhile rhetoric into a determined focus on enacting valuable policy to get drug prices down. With public sentiment clearly against Big Pharma, any such action with both public and bipartisan support - could be a (relatively) quick and (comparatively) easy win. It may also serve as a valuable measure to reconnect and appease his electoral base.
One sure way to strain high cost is encouraging price completion through generic alternatives. A development that investors should take heed of is the Federal Drug Administration's (FDA) "Drug Competition Action Plan" - announced in May - in which they pledge to reduce the time taken to approve generic versions of branded drugs. Another, albeit less celebrated piece of legislation is a bipartisan solution being re-introduced to curb anti-competitive practices that have historically stymied market entry to lower-cost generic drugs. The Creating and Restoring Equal Access to Equivalent Samples (CREATES) Act, will introduce measures allowing generic drug makers to seek legal recourse to force brand-drug companies to supply samples: a process required in order to allow the generic drug maker to test and produce the generic alternatives. The bill would moreover authorize the Federal Trade Commission to prohibit a popular tactic employed by big drug makers known as "pay for delay", whereby pharmaceutical firms pay rival drug makers to delay introducing generics on the market a tactic that is currently not prohibited.
Increased competition should be in the public interest, and serve as a boon for generic drug-makers. Investors holding long positions in large pharmaceuticals may be wise to investigate how and if this legislation may have an impact on selected firms, and how it could benefit generic drug makers.
And while quarterly revenues look good, Sanofi is slogging through its own unique pricing scandal. In one particularly alarming example, Americans pay nearly 10 times more for Sanofis multiple sclerosis drug Aubagio than their French counterparts. Senator Bernie Sanders, who has the pharma industry firmly in his sights and is currently pushing a plan to let Americans buy prescription drugs from abroad, penned an op-ed in the New York Times back in March putting Sanofi on the spot for the terms of an agreement between the Paris-based CAC40 company and the U.S. government.
On the face of it, the deal is fairly straightforward: in response to the Zika epidemic that started in Brazil in April 2015, the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research (a part of the U.S. Department of Defense), signed an agreement with Sanofi Pasteur (a division of Sanofi) in September 2016 to start the development of a vaccine. Sanofi was awarded a $43 million grant, and the government has promised another $130 million to conduct further phases of development and various phases of the drug trials.
The need for a Zika vaccine is self-explanatory. Any outbreak can have a devastating impact, both in terms of loss of life and economic output. The World Bank estimated that the Ebola crisis of 2013 2016 in West Africa wiped as much as 4% of growth of Guinea and 8% of that of Liberia. Sanofi has extensive experience in developing vaccines - it is one of their main business lines - and developing a Zika vaccine means utilizing advances the company previously and successfully developed for both its dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis vaccines. All three belong to the same family of viruses, and are transmitted by the same type of mosquito.
Though the justifications for the deal between Sanofi and the U.S. Army are sound, the parts of the agreement provoking Senator Sanders ire have to do with the Armys decision to grant the company an exclusive license to sell the vaccine in the U.S. Pricing practices in the U.S. are such that any vaccine from the public-private tie up could well be too expensive for most Americans, despite the fact that American taxpayer dollars are funding its development.
Matters escalated when the Army, responding to Sanders, requested Sanofi make a commitment to fair pricing and the company reportedly refused (for the record, the company insists no such rejection has occurred). Senator Sanders and Congressman Peter DeFazio of Oregon have now responded by proposing a new rule (introduced as an amendment to the 1938 Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act) requiring drug makers to levy fair prices for drugs developed with taxpayer-backed research. An amendment to military spending authorization that would allow the Department of Defense to open tenders to other drug makers when it helped fund research is currently making its way through Congress.
Sanofis pricing controversy illustrates one of the potential shortcomings of public-private partnerships in a context where drug prices are artificially inflated. According to conventional wisdom, Big Pharma has far less market incentive to develop drugs for Zika and other similar neglected diseases. To bring private sector companies on board, the thinking goes, the public sector has to make it worth their while.
And yet, some non-profit organisations have managed to develop successful, extremely cost-effective solutions for treating neglected diseases at far lower costs than major pharmaceuticals companies. One of those non-profits Sanofi should look to is the Drugs for Neglected Disease Initiative (D.N.D.I), founded in 1999. The D.N.D.I. has already developed seven approved, patent-free, low-cost treatments for neglected diseases. It succeeds in piggybacking on, and paying for, established infrastructure through government and grant funding relying on the so-called product development partnership (PDP) model.
PDPs keep costs down through collaboration either with universities, governments or the pharmaceutical industry itself. If anything, the model that D.N.D.I employs serves as a proof of concept that an organisation without any profit objective can develop and deploy medications at a fraction of the cost of global drug makers. The D.N.D.I has a further 26 drugs currently under development. Tallying together its completed drugs and ongoing projects, the non-profit has thus far spent $290 million much less than what a typical pharmaceutical company would spend to develop just one drug. Sanofi itself partnered with the D.N.D.I. to develop and produce the ASAQ Winthrop malaria treatment.
While for-profit drug companies can hardly be expected to adopt D.N.D.I.s business model, the dispute over Zika vaccine pricing has nevertheless overshadowed some highly successful public-private partnerships in which private companies have taken on neglected diseases without a profit motive. This was the case with West Africas Ebola outbreak in December 2013, in which a number of private firms partnered with both local and outside governments to address what was otherwise an unmitigated medical calamity.
In West Africa, some of the most impactful partnerships came from outside the pharmaceuticals industry. The Gavi global vaccine alliance may have partnered with Merck on the latters Ebola vaccine, but the Russian aluminium producer UC Rusal also partnered with the Russian government to develop Ebola vaccines now being deployed to Guinea. At the height of the outbreak, Rusal leveraged its extensive operations in the country the epicentre of the Ebola outbreak to establish a local Centre for Microbiological Research and Treatment of Epidemic Diseases, investing $10 million and donating medicines, sanitary and hygiene items to the Guinean Ministry of Health from 2014.
When compared to those fruitful, mutually beneficial examples, the dust-up between Sanofi and the U.S. government over developing the Zika vaccine seems to be an anomaly. Nonetheless, Sanofis clumsy response to Congressional criticism may have already contributed to a bipartisan backlash against the industry as a whole. A growing chorus of lawmakers is targeting the seemingly predatory pricing schemes employed by drug makers in the U.S. New legislation is ripe for the making: the U.S. counts as a nearly unique exception of a developed nation with no drug price regulation policy, and pressure is mounting from politicians, physicians, and also the FDA to seriously address the regulation of drug pricing.
And while the government is currently unable to negotiate drug pricing as part of Medicaids so-called "Part D" program (which covers most prescription drugs and constitute 25% of large pharmaceuticals gross sales), the practice is being reviewed and does not carry the favour of the current administration.
If the U.S. finally does close its drug pricing loopholes, the pharmaceutical giants will be even more reliant on emerging market sales for their profit margins. Sanofis emerging market sales, as per their Q-2 earning report, grew by 6.6% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, compared to a 2.7% decline in the U.S. With that in mind, it would be good business for these firms who carry an inherent moral responsibility to do good to engage in fruitful, balanced R&D partnerships with the public sector. As Bill Gates declared at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos this year, the world remains tragically unprepared for the next epidemic.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Original post:
Sanofi's Zika Standoff: Bad Medicine? - Seeking Alpha
- Yes, But. The Annotated Atlantic. [Last Updated On: November 7th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 7th, 2009]
- Health Insurance Benefit Costs by Region [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- For an Operator, Please Press... [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- Pollyanna With a Pen: Maine Governor Signs 18 New Health Care Bills into Law [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- AMA Sounds the Alarm, Medicare Making Yet Another Attempt to Cut Reimbursement [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- Mass Governor Asks Blue Cross to Keep Higher Employer Contribution [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- Lifespan and Care New England Plan Monopoly (Again) [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- Dirigo Health: Con Artists, Liars, and Thieves? [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- New Orleans: Health Challenges [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- August a Flurry of Activity [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- Maine's Dirigo Health Savings One-Third of Original Estimate [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- “Methodolatry”: My new favorite term for one of the shortcomings of evidence-based medicine [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- Suzanne Somers’ Knockout: Dangerous misinformation about cancer (part 1) [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- A science-based blog about GMO [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- A Not-So-Split Decision [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- Military Medicine in Iraq [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- The effective wordsmithing of Amy Wallace [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- A Science Lesson from a Homeopath and Behavioral Optometrist [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- Join CFI in opposing funding mandates for quackery in health care reform [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- Mainstreaming Science-Based Medicine: A Novel Approach [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- Those who live in glass houses… [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- J.B. Handley of the anti-vaccine group Generation Rescue: Misogynistic attacks on journalists who champion science [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- When homeopaths attack medicine and physics [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- The cancer screening kerfuffle erupts again: “Rethinking” screening for breast and prostate cancer [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- All Medicines Are Poison! [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- When Loud Wins: Will Your Tax Dollars Pay For Prayer? [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- It’s All in Your Head [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- The Skeptical O.B. joins the Science-Based Medicine crew [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- The Tragic Death Toll of Homebirth [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- What’s the right C-section rate? Higher than you think. [Last Updated On: November 8th, 2009] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2009]
- Recombinant Human Antithrombin – Milking Nanny Goats for Big Bucks [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- Does C-section increase the rate of neonatal death? [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- Man in Coma 23 Years – Is He Really Conscious? [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- Why Universal Hepatitis B Vaccination Isn’t Quite Universal [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- Ontario naturopathic prescribing proposal is bad medicine [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- Naturopaths and the anti-vaccine movement: Hijacking the law in service of pseudoscience [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- The Institute for Science in Medicine enters the health care reform fray [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- Neti pots – Ancient Ayurvedic Treatment Validated by Scientific Evidence [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- Early Intervention for Autism [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- A temporary reprieve from legislative madness [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- A critique of the leading study of American homebirth [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- Lose those holiday pounds [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- Endocrine disruptors—the one true cause? [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- Acupuncture for Chronic Prostatitis/Chronic Pelvic Pain Syndrome [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- Evidence in Medicine: Experimental Studies [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- Midwives and the assault on scientific evidence [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- The Mammogram Post-Mortem [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- An Influenza Recap: The End of the Second Wave [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- The End of Chiropractic [Last Updated On: December 13th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2009]
- Cell phones and cancer again, or: Oh, no! My cell phone’s going to give me cancer! (revisited) [Last Updated On: December 20th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 20th, 2009]
- Another wrinkle to the USPSTF mammogram guidelines kerfuffle: What about African-American women? [Last Updated On: December 20th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 20th, 2009]
- Acupuncture, the P-Value Fallacy, and Honesty [Last Updated On: December 20th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 20th, 2009]
- The One True Cause of All Disease [Last Updated On: December 20th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 20th, 2009]
- Communicating with the Locked-In [Last Updated On: December 20th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 20th, 2009]
- Are the benefits of breastfeeding oversold? [Last Updated On: December 20th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 20th, 2009]
- Measles [Last Updated On: December 20th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 20th, 2009]
- Radiation from medical imaging and cancer risk [Last Updated On: December 21st, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 21st, 2009]
- Multiple Sclerosis and Irrational Exuberance [Last Updated On: December 21st, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 21st, 2009]
- Medical Fun with Christmas Carols [Last Updated On: December 22nd, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 22nd, 2009]
- Lithium for ALS – Angioplasty for MS [Last Updated On: December 23rd, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 23rd, 2009]
- “Toxins”: the new evil humours [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2009]
- 2009’s Top 5 Threats To Science In Medicine [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2009]
- Buteyko Breathing Technique – Nothing to Hyperventilate About [Last Updated On: December 26th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 26th, 2009]
- The Graston Technique – Inducing Microtrauma with Instruments [Last Updated On: December 29th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 29th, 2009]
- The “pharma shill” gambit [Last Updated On: December 29th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 29th, 2009]
- Ginkgo biloba – No Effect [Last Updated On: December 30th, 2009] [Originally Added On: December 30th, 2009]
- Oppose “Big Floss”; practice alternative dentistry [Last Updated On: January 1st, 2010] [Originally Added On: January 1st, 2010]
- Causation and Hill’s Criteria [Last Updated On: January 3rd, 2010] [Originally Added On: January 3rd, 2010]
- The life cycle of translational research [Last Updated On: January 10th, 2010] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2010]
- The anti-vaccine movement strikes back against Dr. Paul Offit [Last Updated On: January 10th, 2010] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2010]
- Osteoporosis Drugs: Good Medicine or Big Pharma Scam? [Last Updated On: January 10th, 2010] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2010]
- Acupuncture for Hot Flashes [Last Updated On: January 10th, 2010] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2010]
- The case for neonatal circumcision [Last Updated On: January 10th, 2010] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2010]
- A victory for science-based medicine [Last Updated On: January 10th, 2010] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2010]
- James Ray and testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) [Last Updated On: January 10th, 2010] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2010]
- The Water Cure: Another Example of Self Deception and the “Lone Genius” [Last Updated On: January 12th, 2010] [Originally Added On: January 12th, 2010]
- Be careful what you wish for, Dr. Dossey, you just might get it [Last Updated On: January 13th, 2010] [Originally Added On: January 13th, 2010]
- You. You. Who are you calling a You You? [Last Updated On: January 15th, 2010] [Originally Added On: January 15th, 2010]
- The War on Salt [Last Updated On: January 16th, 2010] [Originally Added On: January 16th, 2010]
- Is breech vaginal delivery safe? [Last Updated On: January 16th, 2010] [Originally Added On: January 16th, 2010]