(MoneyWatch) With a physician shortage that some experts think will worsen in coming years because of the Affordable Care Act, an historic number of would-be doctors applied this year to the nation's medical schools.

That could be a problem. This year's larger medical school class could cause an even greater bottleneck because the slots for the nation's residency programs for medical school grads hasn't expanded since 1997.

Roughly 48,000 Americans applied to medical school during the most recent admission season, exceeding the previous record set in 1996. More than 20,000 individuals entered medical school, which translated into a 2.8 percent increase in the first-year student body.

With the need for medical care rising, the number of medical schools is increasing, and the Association of American Medical Colleges estimates that there will be an additional 7,000 graduates every year over the next decade.

The logjam occurs when graduates of medical schools take the next step and apply for residency training programs. Back in 1997, Congress capped the number of federally supported residencies in the nation's 1,000-plus teaching hospitals.

"At a time when the nation faces a shortage of more than 90,000 doctors by the end of the decade and millions are gaining access to health insurance, we are very glad that more students than ever want to become physicians," said AAMC chief executive Darrell Kirch in a statement. "However, unless Congress lifts the 16-year-old cap on federal support for residency training, we will still face a shortfall of physicians across dozens of specialties."

Although there is legislation in Congress to change the cap, not all the players in the health care field favor removing it. Through the Medicare and Medicaid programs, the federal government is the biggest supporter of medical graduate education.

According to a policy brief by Health Affairs, a leading health policy policy journal, the federal government pays about $100,000 per resident annually. When the entire tab is added, the public investment per physician is close to half a million dollars.

Regardless of the federal government's commitment, some health care analysts believe that policy makers should focus expanding primary care . There are about two medical specialists for every one primary-care doctors. In contrast, in many countries the number of specialists versus primary-care doctors is about the same.

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Record numbers heading to medical school