The flatter, lower curve is a much better one but it will take working together to make it happen, says Markel, whos the director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the U-M Medical School.

He and his colleagues have studied the effects of efforts to stop the spread of the 1918 flu pandemic and the 2009 H1N1 flu epidemic.

If individuals and communities take steps to slow the viruss spread, that means the number of cases of COVID-19 will stretch out across a longer period of time. As the curve shows, the number of cases at any given time doesnt cross the dotted line of the capacity of our nations health care system to help everyone whos very sick.

If you dont have as many cases coming to the hospitals and clinics at once, it can actually lower the number of total deaths from the virus and from other causes, he says. And, importantly, it buys us time for university and government scientists, and industry, to create new therapies, medications and potentially a vaccine.

Another key factor to consider: the doctors, nurses, pharmacists, technicians and many other staff who actually work in healthcare. The more cases of COVID-19 there are at any given time, the more likely some of them are to catch it, whether in the community or at work. Once theyre sick, they need to stay away from patients for weeks. Which means fewer people to take care of the patients who need care.

Canceling, postponing or moving online for our work, education and recreation may be inconvenient, annoying and disappointing.

But hospitals need to have enough room, supplies and staff to care for those who need hospital-level care -- whether its for coronavirus, a heart attack, car crash, broken bone or birth. Thats why its important to listen to public health authorities and leaders if and when they say its time to change how we live our lives temporarily.

Coronavirus is a socially transmitted disease, and we all have a social contract to stop it, says Markel. What binds us is a microbe but it also has the power to separate us. Were a very small community, whether we acknowledge it or not, and this proves it. The time to act like a community is now.

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Flattening the Curve for COVID-19: What Does It Mean and How Can You Help? - Michigan Medicine