A recent saga involving Michael Chong, a Member of Parliament (MP) from the Progressive Conservative Party in Canada, led to a sudden deterioration of Sino-Canadian relations in that Canada expelled a Chinese diplomat while China responded in a tit-for-tat pway by expelling a Canadian diplomat in Shanghai.

The incident erupted suddenly when CanadasGlobe and Mailclaimed that the government of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) was targeting an MP, Michael Chong, who criticized Chinas policy toward Xinjiang and who voted in February 2021 for a motion condemning the PRC.

The newspaper cited an unnamed security source that Zhao Wei, a Chinese diplomat in Canada, attempted to target at Chong and to intimidate his family in Hong Kong a serious accusation that aroused great concern in the domestic politics of Canada.

Then the federal government of Canada expelled Zhao Wei from Canada. Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said that Canada will not tolerate any form of foreign interference in our internal affairs.

The Canadian government declared Zhao Wei persona non grata after days of pressure from Canadas opposition parties and media criticisms. Clearly, the move was a political one, with the ruling Liberal Party led by Prime Minister Justine Trudeau taking a necessary step to placate its political opponents at a time when the Progressive Conservative Party has been launching a campaign to attack the Liberal Party.

In a tit-for-tat move, China expelled Canadas consult in Shanghai, namely Jennifer Lynn Lalonde.

Some media commentators in Canada and some Hong Kong diaspora commentators have seen the whole incident as not only a deterioration in Sino-Canadian relations but also a prelude to a trade war between the two countries in the months to come.

According to the latest news from the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, the Canadian security service has begun to reach out to more elected politicians in Canada to brief them on foreign interference. For instance, former Conservative leader Erin OToole and New Democratic Party MP Jenny Kwan were contacted for such briefings. OTooles sister had lived in Hong Kong for many years before she returned to Canada in 2021, while Jenny Kwan said she does not have any family member in mainland China or Hong Kong.

Michael Chong has been a MP from the riding of Wellington-Halton for 19 years. In 2006, he quitted his position as a minister in intergovernmental affairs over a motion which recognized Quebecois as a nation inside Canada, because he said that he did not believe in ethnic nationalism. Chong stressed that he believed in civic nationalism.

Chong said that the governments intelligence report about him was circulated among government departments, although Prime Minister Trudeau and his ministers said that the report was not presented to them.

However, the entire saga raised some questions. First, it is unclear why the intelligence report was not presented to Trudeau, who appeared to be a target of political criticisms by his opposition parties and media. Second, it is unclear how Chinese officials might have targeted the Canadian MPs and their families. Third, if PRCs interference with Canadian politics existed, it is unclear what forms it might take and whether such interference was stopped by the authorities concerned.

The Michael Chong incidence came at a time when Sino-Canadian relations had already suffered from the cases of Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig. In December 2018, Canadian citizens Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig were detained in China shortly after the arrest of Huawei chief financial officer Sabrina Meng Wanzhou in Canada. While Kovrig worked for an international crisis groups office in Hong Kong, Spavor was a director of Paektu Cultural Exchange, an organization that dealt with tourism and investment in North Korea.

In September 2021, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that the two Michaels had been released from detention shortly after Meng was released from house arrest in Canada.

The detention and release of the two Michaels were clearly related to the fate of Sabrina Meng in Canada a case showing that the incidence of the two Michaels was tied to the international politics and Sino-US-Canadian relations surrounding Meng.

From late 2022 to early 2023, there were media reports in Canada making accusations on the establishment of so-called Chinese police stations in Toronto, Vancouver and Quebec. The media asserted that these service stations aimed at Chinese diaspora communities and individuals, some of whom might become a target of the mainland police.

In November 2022, the RCMP in Canada confirmed that they investigated such reports of service stations in Toronto.

However, the PRC embassy in Canada mentioned that the overseas service stations were opened during the Covid-19 pandemic to help Chinese nationals abroad on issues such as drivers licence renewal.

It was unclear whether such service stations were operated by local police in China without the full knowledge of the central-level police leaders in Beijing. With a country as large as the PRC, quite often the local police might have operated their activities beyond the knowledge of the central-level authorities.

There were also Canadian media reports saying that the PRC attempted to meddle in Canadas 2019 and 2021 national elections and to target at some candidates with Chinese ethnic background. Prime Minister Trudeau was under the oppositions criticism, and he decided to set up an independent special rapporteur with the task of providing the government with concrete recommendations.

In March 2023, the PRC Foreign Minister Qin Gang told the Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly during the G20 meeting that China never interferes with other countries internal politics and opposes any country interfering with other countries internal politics.

Although the PRCs official position is clear, Canadas domestic politics have recently witnessed a fierce struggle between the ruling Liberal Party and the opposition Progressive Conservative (PC) Party.

The leader of the PC Party, Pierre Poilievre, said in March that only a public inquiry would find out what happened with foreign interference. He went so far as to make the following claim on March 6, 2023: Justin Trudeau has known about this interference for a decade because it was ten years ago that the Trudeau foundation got its Canadian $200,000 donation from a Beijing-backed donor and ever since we know that the government in Beijing has been trying to influence and support Justin Trudeau. (see CNN report)

The Globe and Mailreported that a foundation was named after Justin Trudeaus father, former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, had received Canadian $200,000 donation from two Chinese businesspeople in 2016 to support and fund scholarships and leadership programs.

However, a spokesman for Justin Trudeaus office said that he withdrew his involvement from the named foundation when he participated in federal politics about a decade ago. At the same time, the Pierre Elliot Trudeau Foundation said that, considering the media report and accusation, it would refund the donation and maintain its role as an independent and non-partisan charity.

Objectively speaking, with the opposition party targeting at the Liberal Party and accusing Prime Minister Trudeau of being vulnerable to foreign interference, the series of events that pointed to the PRCs interference have political motivations. Specifically, the opposition is keen to oust the ruling Liberal Party in the next national elections, and its campaign strategy is to connect the Liberal Party with the PRCs interference.

In conclusion, the sudden deterioration in Sino-Canadian relations has been attributable mainly to the attempt of the opposition to discredit the Liberal Party in Canada by linking the ruling regime with the so-called PRC interference. By doing so, the opposition, including parties and mass media, appears to achieve several political objectives: digging out previous election candidates who were suspected of being influenced by external actors, warning forthcoming candidates (especially candidates with Chinese ethnic background) against the possibility of being influenced, exposing the weaknesses of the Liberal Party, and turning the Chinese interference into a factor shaping Canadian domestic politics and electoral rivalries.

Although fierce partisan politics are the hallmarks of Canadas domestic political development, the diplomats of Canada and China appear to stay relatively calm. While the expulsion of the Chinese diplomat from Canada was a natural response of the Trudeau government, the PRC expulsion of the Canadian diplomat in Shanghai was a kneejerk response. Pragmatism will likely prevail and trade war between the two countries will unlikely occur; both countries economies are recovering gradually shortly after the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, there will not be a significant breakthrough at least from now to the next national elections, because the ruling Liberal Party does not want to risk being labelled as a regime vulnerable to foreign interference. Nor does the Liberal Party want to lose the support of voters. As such, Sino-Canadian relations remain pragmatic amid the suddenly rocky relationship due to the fierce opposition politics aimed at discrediting and toppling the Liberal Party in Canada.

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OPINION - A sudden twist in Sino-Canadian relations - Macau Business