TOPLINE
Third-party candidates helped determine the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, but this go-round the mostly obscure slate of alternative hopefuls appear far less viable, making 2020 more of a two-party election.
ORLANDO, UNITED STATES - 2020/07/10: Jo Jorgensen, the 2020 presidential nominee of the Libertarian ... [+] Party, gives her acceptance speech during the 2020 Libertarian National Convention at the Orange County Convention Center. Jorgensen is the first woman to receive the Libertarian presidential nomination. (Photo by Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Third-party candidates collectively won around 4% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 6% of the vote in Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016,enough to sway those races, which were decided by less than a point, and hand President Trump an electoral college victory despite Hillary Clintons 2 percentage point lead in the national popular vote.
At least one 2020 candidate has gotten considerable national attention Kanye West, whose bid appears to be backed by GOP operatives aimed at hurting Democratic nominee Joe Bidens chances but hes unlikely to approach the impact of 2016 Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein because he is struggling to get on the ballot in pivotal battleground states.
Other third-party challengers include the Libertarian Partys Jo Jorgensen, a Clemson University lecturer; Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins, a retired teamster and self-described eco-socialist; and Constitution Party candidate Don Blankenship, a former coal mine executive who went to prison over the Upper Big Branch Mine explosion.
Only 1.8% of voters said they back a candidate besides Biden or Trump in a Suffolk University poll of 1,000 registered in late August, a significant drop from the more than 5% who voted third party in 2016, which could have a significant impact on how the race plays out in states where third-party candidates helped shape the race in 2016.
Biden is also far more popular than Clinton was, and Trump has galvanized Republicans behind him and boosted his favorability rating since 2016, meaning the bloc of voters who view both candidates unfavorably the primary source of votes for third-party candidatesis much smaller.
The major impact third parties had in 2016 may be the primary driver behind the low support for marginal candidates this year. There is fear that this election is both very important and might be very close, making it dangerous or irresponsible to squander one's vote on a third party, Columbia University political science professor Robert Erikson told Forbes.
J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginias Center for Politics argue there are far fewer divisions within the two parties than there were in 2016, with Trump having faced no real opposition in his GOP primary and Biden wrapping up the Democratic nomination relatively quickly. This naturally removes some of the oxygen for third party candidates, and the lack of major intra party strife makes this election, to us, more reminiscent of 2004 and 2012, when George W. Bush and Barack Obama won second terms in competitive elections that featured very low levels of third party voting, they write.
With just two months until Election Day, third-party candidates are unlikely to get much more national exposure. While Jorgensen and Hawkins meet the Commission on Presidential Debates requirement that they be on enough ballots to secure an electoral college victory, neither has come close to the necessary 15% threshold in at least five national public polls to participate.
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Third-Party Candidates Played A Major Role In 2016, But 2020 Is A Two-Man Race - Forbes
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