by Clifford F. Thies

With the release of a Battleground Poll of 70 “competitive” Congressional Districts (60 Democrat and 10 Republican), and three “generic Congressional” polls, it is a good time to update our tracking of the 2010 elections.

This Battleground Poll is not a poll of the entire country, nor a set of 70 Congressional District polls. Rather, it is one poll of 1,200 people selected from 70 districts thought to be competitive. While it can't tell us anything about particular races, it can tell us about tendencies in races thought to be competitive. And, what it tells us is this: That Republicans are, on average, 5 points ahead in these districts.

GOP has well-over the necessary 40 to win back the House

Given the normal variation across competitive districts (due, e.g., to the individual candidates involved), we can suppose that Republicans will win a net of something like 45 or 50 seats from these competitive districts. If this were to happen, Republicans will also pick up a few more seats in contests thought not to be competitive as well. So, with the standard caveat that things could change, we're looking at a net pick-up of 50 to 60 seats for the Republicans.

This analysis is supported by the three "generic Congressional" polls that have just been released: Ipsos (which might lean Democrat) +1 for Republicans, Gallup +5 for Republicans, and Rasmussen (which has been very kind to Republicans this year) +10 for Republicans. These are very strong numbers for Republicans. We are looking at a 1994-type tsunami.

Over in the Senate, based on a variety of state polls, it looks like Republicans will make major gains: SD, DE, IN, AR, NV and CO look like probable pick-ups. IL and PA also look do-able. CA and WA are competitive. Our most vulnerable seat is OH, which is a toss-up, and several other of our seats are in play. So, I'm thinking there is a possibility of gaining eight to ten seats.

These numbers are available to everybody. Democrat incumbents will be very focused on their own races. You can bet, for example, that Barbara Boxer will be raising and spending all the money she can to hold on to her seat. As a result of this "circle the wagons" mentality, I don't think there will be much money for Democratic non-incumbents or even for vulnerable first-term Democratic House members.

Economic numbers offer no relief for Dems

Let me comment on the economy. The leading indicators are weak. I'm not saying we're going into a double-dip (or, triple-dip) recession (depending on how the course of the U.S. will eventually be adjudicated by the NBER). But, the economy will be weak through the next several months. Plus, there are gathering signs of inflation. (Plus, with all the new taxes and regulations piled onto the economy, the next couple years don't look too good either.)

Consumer confidence is abysmally low. Small business confidence is likewise. There has, on the other hand, been some recovery of confidence in the corporate sector; but, I think this refers to their sense that the survivors among them can operate in these troubled times. The stock market and the real estate market have been moving down or sideways. Continuing to blame it all on Bush is not resonating any longer.

The bottom line is that I don't see any reason for Democrats to feel that their fortunes will turn around any time soon.

Dr. Thies is a professor of econo-metrics and statistics at Shenandoah Univ. in Virginia. He is also a former Libertarian National Committee member, and former National Chairman of the Republican Liberty Caucus.