From Eric Dondero:

A much talked about new study by the Cato Institute's Dave Boaz and David Kirby looks at the bloc of independent-minded libertarian swing voters, described as "fiscally conservative/socially liberal," who are often overlooked by the two major parties. The study is titled "The Libertarian Vote in the Age of Obama."

Boaz and Kirby have found that after 2006, these soft libertarian voters sided with John McCain, and his libertarian-leaning running mate Sarah Palin over Obama/Biden. Though, notably there was a split between older libertaian-oriented voters, and younger ones.

Perhaps most importantly, the study finds some indications that the bloc increasingly open to the Republican message going into 2010 and beyond.

From Cato:

The Libertarian Vote in the Age of Obama

Libertarian — or fiscally conservative, socially liberal — voters are often torn between their aversions to the Republicans' social conservatism and the Democrats' fiscal irresponsibility. Yet libertarians rarely factor into pundits' and pollsters' analyses.

In 2004 libertarians swung away from Bush, anticipating the Democratic victories of 2006. In 2008, according to new data in this paper, libertarians voted against Barack Obama. Libertarians seem to be a lead indicator of trends in centrist, independent-minded voters. If libertarians continue to lead the independents away from Obama, Democrats will lose 2010 midterm elections they would otherwise win.

Libertarians shifted back to the Republican column in 2008, supporting John McCain over Barack Obama by 71 to 27 percent. Although many libertarian intellectuals had a real antipathy to McCain, the typical libertarian voter saw McCain as an independent, straight-talking maverick who was a strong opponent of earmarks and pork-barrel spending and never talked about social issues.

What McCain/Palin failed to do however, was to reach younger soft libertarian voters. Though, Boaz/Kirby predict that this younger contingent may now be shifting to the GOP column. Continuing:

Younger libertarians voted 59 percent for Obama versus 36 percent for McCain. But their enthusiasm for his policies may be short-lived. Younger Americans are an optimistic generation, but easily shaken when things go badly. If unemployment continues to remain weak, an economic issue that disproportionately affects young people, this generation of voters could quickly become disillusioned with Obama’s policies.

Before the 2006 elections, we predicted that if the swing away from the Republicans continued, “Republicans will lose elections they would otherwise win.” Now we offer the reverse prediction: if libertarians continue to lead the independents away from Obama, Democrats will lose 2010 midterm elections they would otherwise win.

Full analysis at Cato.org, including link for download of full report (PDF).