From Eric Dondero:

It's a very slender lead, but a lead none-the-less. Frank Guinta is a longtime friend of New Hampshire libertarians. In fact, there's also a rumor that he was once a dues-paying member of the Libertarian Party. He is the immediate former Mayor of Manchester. He built up a reputation of being out of the ordinary, even a bit quirky. He never compromised on taxes and budgetary matters, and in the process made a few enemies. He's also a diehard Tea Party devotee, and has spoken at numerous rallies.

Now, the very latest poll has him taking the lead over increasingly unpopular, and ultra-liberal incumbent Carol Shea-Porter. (The polling data also has moderate-to-conservative Republican, and former Representative for CD2 Charlie Bass with a comfortable lead, over the incumbent Dem; another GOP pick-up.)

From PPP (via Hedgehog):

US HOUSE – NEW HAMPSHIRE – CD1 (PPP)
Frank Guinta (R) 46%
Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc) 45%

US HOUSE – NEW HAMPSHIRE – CD2 (PPP)
Charlie Bass (R) 47%
Katrina Swett (D) 32%

A victory in the CD1 race for Libertarian and Conservative Republicans will be especially sweet. Carol Shea-Porter is a particularly socialist and thoroughly unlikable figure. She has gone out of her way to antagonize the Right, particularly at Town Hall meetings.

In fact, the polling data finds her unfavorables to be very high, right at 50%, with favorables at 41%. Unfavorables that high are almost the kiss of death for any incumbent. Still, Guinta has the problem that nobody outside of Manchester knows who he is, with a 52% "no opinion."

If you're in New England, this is one race where you'll most assuredly want to donate your time and money.

TeamGuinta.com