Close in the Senate; definitely the House

SENATE +6 (ND, DE, IN, AR, NV, PA, CO) (relative to 9)
HOUSE +50 (relative to 38)

by Clifford F. Thies

Republicans look to make major gains in this year's elections. First, it is not unusual for a party that got wiped out in the prior election to make a comeback, and the Republicans took big loses in 2006 and 2008. But, as things look right now, the extent of the gains may be historic.

In the Senate, polling data show Republicans to be ahead in six states with Democratic seats and not to be behind in any states with Republican seats. There is another tier of contests, involving both Democratic and Republican seats, where the seat might flip. Thinking only good thoughts, California and Illinois might flip to the Republicans. There is yet another tier of states in which Republican hopes appear to be hinged to possible candidates who have not announced: New York, Washington and Wisconsin (where Tommy Thompson is at least thinking about it).

In the House, going by the Generic Congressional Ballot, and that's about the best we can do at this point, the Republicans appear to be on track to net something like 50 seats. This prognostication is supported by the stream of retirements coming from the other side.

Some people think it would be best for the Republican Party if we were to fall short of controlling both or even one chamber. They fear that a Republican Congress might do to President Obama what the Republican Congress first elected in 1994 did to President Clinton. That is, box the guy in, restrain spending and cut taxes to both balance the budget and spur economic growth, with the consequence of Obama being re-elected in 2012. All I will say about this possible scenario is: until I see a Republican Congress restrain spending when a Republican is in the White House, what would be so bad about that? We don't need the Republicans in Congress to turn into a bunch of lard asses the way they did when George W. Bush got elected.

We'll have more to say about this year's elections through the course of the year, including Governors and state legislatures.

Dr. Thies is the former National Treasurer for the Libertarian Party, and former National Chairman of the Republican Liberty Caucus. He's a professor of economics specializing in econo-metrics and statistics.