A photo taken on the Tiwi Islands, north of Darwin. A cyclone warning has been declared for the Islands and a cyclone watch for Top End communities. Photograph: Helen Davidson for the Guardian

The bureau of meteorology has declared a cyclone warning for the Tiwi Islands and a cyclone watch for Top End communities, including Darwin and out to the Western Australia border.

The alert comes as a tropical low, about 375km northeast of Darwin, accelerates and intensifies towards the Top End coast.

The tropical low, above the warm waters of the Arafura Sea, is producing gusts up to 85km an hour, and is moving south at 12km an hour. The bureau has put the chances of it becoming Cyclone Blanche at more than 50% on Sunday or Monday.

On Saturday morning, a cyclone warning issued when coastal and island areas are likely to experience gale force winds within 24 hours was declared between the Tiwi Islands and Croker Island, just east of the Coburg Peninsula.

A warning to expect those conditions within 24 to 48 hours has been issued for areas from Point Stuart to the WA border, including Darwin and Wadeye.

The system is expected to track in a southwesterly direction and move closer to Darwin on Sunday. It is forecast to be close to tropical cyclone intensity as it approaches the Tiwi Islands on Saturday night with gales of up to 110km an hour.

The low is expected to move towards the south or southwest during the weekend and may form into a tropical cyclone near the Tiwi Islands on Sunday, the bureau said.

The cyclone may intensify further during Sunday night or Monday as it move towards the south or southwest across the Timor Sea. The tropical cyclone may cross the north Kimberley coast later on Monday or early Tuesday.

Darwin is expected to be affected by wild weather from Sunday, and the bureau has urged all residents in the region to make sure they are prepared with up to date cyclone kits and properties cleared of debris and potential wind borne missiles.

A strong wind warning has been issued for the Tiwi and Arafura coasts on Saturday and Darwin harbour on Sunday, and a gale force winds warning for Beagle Bonaparte Coast, North Tiwi Coast, Van Diemen Gulf and Arafura Coast on Sunday.

The Northern Territory and northern WA region have experienced record-breaking rains over the wet season.

The weather system is expected to bring heavy rainfall of 200 to 300mm in some areas, exceeding a wet season total of two metres for the first time in six years, after Cyclone Carlos in 2011.

The Australian cyclone season has had just two named storms: Yvette in December and Alfred last month. Both reached category one strength. Yvette hit the northern WA region and Alfred formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

No cyclones affected the Northern Territory last year, but remote communities of Arnhem Land are still rebuilding after the destructive Lam, and then Nathan just weeks later, destroyed hundreds of homes in 2015.

Lam, a category four storm when it made landfall, was the strongest storm to hit the NT since Marcia in 2006, and a state of emergency was declared following the destruction.

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Cyclone threat builds up for Darwin, Tiwi Islands and other Top End areas - The Guardian