Signs supporting the National Health Service (NHS) during the coronavirus outbreak are displayed together on railings in east London on Monday. Associated Press
That is partly because different countries are at different stages of the epidemic, and partly because data is recorded and then reported in different ways, often to score a political point about our own or other governments. Large parts of the world are still going largely unreported. What happened after those pictures a few weeks ago of a chaotic lockdown in India? After the hunger riots in Nairobi slums? When the dead bodies piled up on the streets of an Ecuadorian city? And what is the progress of the epidemic that was running out of control, causing mass casualties, in Iran?
We are not being told what is going on in the mega cities of Lagos, Sao Paulo, Mexico City and Mumbai. Most of Planet Earth seems to have disappeared. And that matters not just for humanitarian reasons, but because we still have are so many gaps in the knowledge of how this virus operates and what is required to defeat it.
An example of how the international data can be misleadingly oversimplified came in a report last week of how Britain was now in the top five nations for recorded deaths from COVID-19. I have no particular brief for this government, and suspect that they have made some bad, avoidable, mistakes. But such accusations are meaningless in the absence of information on deaths per head of the population; deaths in relation to infection rates; the age profile and therefore years of life lost; and deaths in excess of the underlying trend. (Much comment still seems to assume immortality, forgetting that 1,600 people die in the UK every day from heart failure, cancer, car accidents, other illnesses and, of course, simple old age.)
What is potentially more informative than morbidity league tables which make sense only when scientifically interpreted are insights from the different strategies and tactics employed in around the world. The differences reflect the fact that different scientists have different views, and that different politicians are making different judgements about how to act on the evidence.
The big strategic argument is between those favouring suppression of the virus by cutting the rate of infection well below one using lockdowns and the closing off of large sections of the economy and those arguing for a weaker, mitigation approach to minimise disruption. After a damaging couple of weeks of prevaricating, when herd immunity was entertained, Britain is firmly in suppression mode. But total suppression is impractical except in remote, low density communities such as New Zealand, which is now down to two cases, both isolated.
The subsidiary issue for those choosing suppression is whether to rely on the crude, sledgehammer approach of lockdown, causing immense economic harm, or the more surgical approach of testing and tracing, as in Korea and Taiwan, or some combination of the two, as in Germany. But that kind of surgical approach requires a degree of foresight, planning and organisation which Britain lacked (and still lacks).
Then, within the lockdown approach, there are varying degrees of draconian. In Paris and Milan, permits are required to leave your house; walking and cycling are not indulged as they are in the UK. In that light, I am rather grateful that we have an instinctively libertarian prime minister. My nearest brush with authority has been the sighting of a drone checking that, miles from anywhere and everyone, my wife and I were not indulging in proscribed activities such as sitting down or sunbathing. Had Theresa May still been around, I suspect Britain would have had issued curfews and internal passports by now
There is an even more liberal approach, however, which is to accommodate rather than suppress the virus. At one extreme there are the virus deniers in the nastier and weirder parts of the former Soviet Union, such as Belarus and Turkmenistan; the nastier and weirder parts of the US, as in the Republican Deep South; and, of course, in Bolsonaros Brazil. This is almost certainly where Donald Trump would like to be, had he not channelled his anti-scientific, populist instincts into promoting alternative vaccines like the injection of disinfectants.
There are sensible governments which are not in denial but believe they can avoid the extreme economic pain of lockdown. One is Japan, where life and business continues much as normal, save for in a few regions where mounting infections are forcing the governments hand. The Japanese do not challenge the epidemiological orthodoxy but they seem to have developed a variant of the Taiwan/Korea model, for the most part successfully clamping down on localised clusters.
A case nearer home is Sweden, which has not followed the other Nordics in a lockdown model. Shops, cafes, workplaces and schools for those under 16 are open, and people still mingle in Stockholm.
I listened in to a Zoom seminar this week organised by the Institute of Global affairs at LSE in which Scandinavian experts were trying to understand how this social democratic country (every right-wingers nightmare of a nanny state) should have ended up taking the most extreme libertarian position in Europe. The response from critics was that they were muddled. The more generous answer is that they really believe in suppression but are relying on self-discipline, solidarity and common sense, rather than coercion and legal sanctions. So far, the profile of the disease and deaths appears not dissimilar from the UK in per capita terms.
Where international experience and devolved government (as in Scotland) is so useful is in testing out the various routes out of lockdown over the next few months. These routes tell us a lot about national tastes as well as the applicability of social distancing. The civilised Italians started with bookshops and childrens clothes stores. The Trump-loving state of Georgia is apparently giving priority to massage and tattoo parlours. Perhaps Britain will start with garden centres?
These are details best settled on the basis of comparative experience and technical advice. The public will expect a common sense approach to gradual relaxation where social distancing can be maintained: outdoors, on beaches and mountains, for example; or where unnecessary travel doesnt actually involve meeting anyone.
To get there, the first requirement is for the government to be transparent about the trade offs between some weakening of the suppression strategy necessitating a degree of risk and the fearsome, collateral damage to our economy and society which would result from maintaining the status quo.
View original post here:
Is UK actually in the top five for COVID-19 deaths? - Gulf Today
- Messages of Hope from a 2,800 Year Old Man [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: April 4th, 2010]
- Kumbh Mela 2010 - the Festival of Immortals [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: April 18th, 2010]
- Census Finds 157 Year Old Woman in Indonesia [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2010]
- Happy 130th Birthday Antisa Khvichava ! [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: July 9th, 2010]
- Anyone Have Any Samples of These Ancient Symbols / Letters? [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: July 21st, 2010]
- Is this a 2,500 Year Old Coin? [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: July 26th, 2010]
- Knights Templar Benediction [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: August 7th, 2010]
- My Interview on the Mysterious Universe has Been Posted. Where is the Evidence? [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 11th, 2010]
- Time Traveler in Charlie Chaplin Film [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 7th, 2010]
- Time Traveler in Charlie Chaplin Film - Last Update [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 28th, 2010]
- Remote Viewing - Remote Sending Update [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: December 11th, 2010]
- Eating Out vs Eating In [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2010]
- Better Ways to Answer “How are You?” [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2010]
- She’s in Fashion [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: December 13th, 2010]
- Major Book Status Update [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: September 18th, 2011]
- Celine Dion - Immortality [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2011]
- Pearl Jam - Immortality [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2011]
- Immortality [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 12th, 2011]
- DJ Fresh 'The Immortal' - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 13th, 2011]
- "Highlander (1986)" Theatrical Trailer #1 - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 14th, 2011]
- DJERV ~ IMMORTAL - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 14th, 2011]
- Solitary Experiments - Immortal (Single Edit) (Video) - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 14th, 2011]
- MyGrain - Of Immortal Aeons music video HD - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 15th, 2011]
- Pearl Jam - Immortality (London '09) HD - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 15th, 2011]
- Blade of the Immortal - Criminal - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 15th, 2011]
- My Immortal, a very dramatic reading of chapter 17. - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 15th, 2011]
- Can a blood test really tell you when you'll die? [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 16th, 2011]
- Seeking immortality - Doctor Who - BBC classic sci-fi - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 16th, 2011]
- Blade of the Immortal - Conquest - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 16th, 2011]
- Harry Potter -Immortal - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 16th, 2011]
- Michael Jackson THE IMMORTAL World Tour by Cirque du Soleil - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 17th, 2011]
- Immortal (2004) Part 1 - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 17th, 2011]
- [New]Thomas J. Bergersen - Immortal - Two Steps From Hell (2011) - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 19th, 2011]
- StarCraft 2 - Immortal Quotes - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 20th, 2011]
- Immortal (Adema) - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 21st, 2011]
- City Of The Fallen - Immortality (From Volume 2 - Exsilium) - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 27th, 2011]
- Freddy Krueger's Immortality - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 27th, 2011]
- Immortal Technique - the prophecy - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 5th, 2011]
- The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks by Rebecca Skloot - Official Trailer - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2011]
- Immortal Serpent - Morgana (2006) - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2011]
- ATMA - IMMORTAL BRILLIANCE - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 13th, 2011]
- Immortal - The Rise of Darkness - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 16th, 2011]
- 18. The badness of death, Part III; Immortality, Part I - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 16th, 2011]
- 7. Plato, Part II: Arguments for the immortality of the soul - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 16th, 2011]
- Immortal Technique - Death March *Lyrics - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: December 1st, 2011]
- My Immortal; The Series Part 1! - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: December 7th, 2011]
- DDM - Immortal - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: December 7th, 2011]
- Pearl Jam - Immortality (SBD) - 4.12.94 Orpheum Theater, Boston, MA - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: December 23rd, 2011]
- Happy Rhodes - Bee Gees' Immortality (New Haven house gig) - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: December 28th, 2011]
- Justin Beener COH vs Landa ARB @ Battles for Immortality 1 - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- 'Immortality' by Coca Brew - High Risk [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- Minecraft - "The Fountain of Immortality" Episode 1 - YU No Lever? - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- Minecraft: The Fountain Of Immortality Part 1 - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- jlhe's IMMORTALITY AND UTOPIA DELUSIONS - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- Let's Play - Fountain of Immortality - Ep.1 - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- My Immortal - Chapter Thirty Seven - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- Immortal Antichrist - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- The GUNN Shop - EpicMealHat | Immortal | Pool Sex | The Last of Us - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- IMMORTALITY AND THE PROGRAM OF AGING - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- Immortality - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- Immortal HD Plays Facade - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- Two Steps From Hell - Immortal Avenger (Nero) - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- Two Steps From Hell - Immortal Avenger (Archangel) - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- Physical immortality conquering death - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- The (R)evolution of Immortal Technique (Trailer #1) [2011] Official Documentary - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- Evanescence - My Immortal lyrics - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 9th, 2012]
- Alfredo EEK vs Juan HyE @ Battle for Immortality 1 - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2012]
- Dannyy vs Alex @ Battle for Immortality 1 - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2012]
- Oscar COH vs Vampiro @ Battle for Immortality 1 - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2012]
- Troll Science IRL 1 - Immortality in 3 simple steps - Troll physics/logic/science - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2012]
- Kurl-e LK vs Alexisz MTUSA @ Battle for Immortality 1 - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2012]
- [Battlescape]Immortality | Saturday Trip 07/01/12 - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2012]
- Lord Vadermort is Immortal - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2012]
- [110709] Immortal Song 2 Hongki , Heechul ( no edit) - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2012]
- The Spektrum - Diatharna Thoron (The Seeds of Immortality) - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 11th, 2012]
- Johnny EDU vs Rango @ Battle for Immortality 1 - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 11th, 2012]
- Lil Rex LK vs Pato @ Battle for Immortality 1 - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 11th, 2012]
- Troy - Achilles Speech - Video [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2012]
- Djokovic closes in on sporting immortality [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 29th, 2012]
- Belichick and Brady playing for Super Bowl immortality [Last Updated On: August 17th, 2024] [Originally Added On: January 30th, 2012]