Yoshihide Suga is patient. The longest-serving chief cabinet secretary in Japanese history, hes been a loyal aide in Prime Minister Shinzo Abes government, managing his public messaging and smoothing over internal quarrels.

Eight years on, hes widely expectedto take over from Abe, who is stepping down for health reasons, with the ruling party picking a new leader on Monday.

Abes time in office provided a period of stability after years of leadership turnover, including his own previous, and brief, premiership in 2006-2007.

The son of farmers, Suga worked his way up through the party machinery, honing his negotiating tactics. Hes played an instrumental role in Abenomics, the premiers marquee economic policy.

As such, Suga is unlikely to substantially change direction. Hes being touted as a continuity candidate who will hew to Abes policies.

On some issues he may push less hard. Abe comes from a family of politicians, including his paternal grandfather and father. His maternal grandfather was prime minister. His hopes of rewriting Japans pacifist constitution were deeply personal. For Suga less so.

But he would still have to manage relationships with the U.S., China, Russia and South Korea. On foreign policy hes largely untested. There are tensions with Beijing and Seoul, especially over Japans wartime past. Suga would need to engage with whoever wins the U.S. election, including on trade.

And its unclear if, at 71, hes seen as a bridging premier, or someone with longevity. With the economy struggling under the pandemic, and structural problems with an aging society and dwindling labor force, Japan can ill-afford a return to leadership uncertainty.

Abegestures atSuga during a news conference in Tokyo on May 4.

Photographer: Eugene Hoshiko/AP

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A woman receives an H1N1 flu nasal spray vaccination in December 2009 in San Francisco.

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With assistance by Karl Maier, Kathleen Hunter, Anthony Halpin, and Isabel Reynolds

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Patience to Pay Off in Japan for a Loyal Aide - Bloomberg