TIBOR NAGY| Lubbock Avalanche-Journal

Churchill had some brilliant quotes, but his most famous one about Russia a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. -- is wrong. Russias self-identified role in the world hasnt been a mystery since Napoleons wars, maybe even earlier: to protect its heartland by extending its control and influence as far as possible in every direction, and to perpetuate the privileges of its ruling class thru all possible means.

Through expansion under a succession of Tsars and Commissars the Russian landmass now covers 11 time zones and exerts influence much farther. While Russias vastness and bitter winters consistently defeated a series of enemies who had no problems overrunning the rest of Europe, its leaders have been less consistent in their capabilities. But its current tsar, President Vladimir Putin, is also one of its ablest understanding fully how to maximize Russias weakened global position. With the end of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia lost about 25% of its territory, and as recently as 2009 was characterized as Burkina Faso with nuclear arms (meaning its economy relied on the export of natural resources).

But while Putin may be holding a pair of tens, hes playing them like a full house. Added to his mastery of history and geopolitics is his expertise in human behavior gleaned from decades of KGB tradecraft which makes him doubly dangerous as an adversary. He has a near perfect record of opportunistic timing on when/how to strike with calculated impunity: seizing Crimea, saving Assad in Syria, sending combat volunteers into eastern Ukraine, manipulating Western Europe to embrace his Nordstream II natural gas pipeline, winking at cybercriminals who inflict major damage on U.S. infrastructure and morale, and poisoning political opponents when he cant simply arrest and torture them.

But for once, going into a summit with a Russian leader, the U.S. side was represented by a president who himself has long political experience and doesnt suffer from naivete or geopolitical ignorance. The U.S. track record in these meetings has been poor: e.g. Roosevelt giving away Eastern Europe to Stalin and Kennedy coming off so weak to Khrushchev that the Soviets were emboldened to move nuclear missiles to Cuba. (Reagan being an exception who more than held his own against Gorbachev.) There will be thousands of words written analyzing the Biden/Putin Summit, but they matter little. What counts is what measure Putin took away from their meeting because that will determine how Putin will play his pair of tens during Bidens presidency.

Putin will stay as he has - searching for and exploiting whatever weaknesses he detects in the US leadership or the western alliance. He will use every geopolitical weapon he believes he can get away with, pursue the Big Lie as effectively as any Soviet leader ever did, neutralize his opponents with whatever means work, and continue to allow his cronies to amass immense wealth at the expense of his people. Russia is neither a mystery, riddle nor enigma. Russia will simply continue its centuries-long policy of opportunistically and brutally assuring its place in the world and the longevity of its ruling class.

Ambassador Tibor Nagy was most recently Assistant Secretary of State for Africa after serving as Texas Techs Vice Provost for International Affairs and a 30-year career as a US Diplomat.

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Nagy: The president and the tsar - LubbockOnline.com