Get all the latest news on coronavirus and more delivered daily to your inbox.Sign up here.
When we look back on how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the United States, it will be clear who led the charge to defeat it: the American people.
Less than two months ago, epidemiological modeling from the Imperial College of London suggested nearly 2 million Americans could die during the COVID-19 crisis. The earliest model from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggested the number of U.S. deaths couldrange from 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million.
Thanks to the ingenuity of Americans everywhere, we are currently proving them wrong.
BETSY MCCAUGHEY: CORONAVIRUS MASKS WHAT WORKS, NEW RULES AND EXPLAINING THE SHORTAGE
Now, in an update published lastweek, the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) lowered its projection of total deaths from 68,841 to just over 60,308 (with an estimated range of 34,063 to 140,381).
Why were the prior models so off?
Models have no control over our country, but Americans do.
Epidemiological estimates can be useful tools but should not be over-interpreted as we need to allow them to be fluid, accounting for important and unanticipated effects, which makes them only useful in the short term. So, the models of last month, last week and maybe even yesterday will be wrong, because they underestimate the resolve of the American people.
The scientific side of modeling is straight-forward, but model outcomes vary extensively depending on the characteristics and transmission of a pathogen. In the case of COVID-19, the spread of the virus hinges on exactly what is done to stop cases from doubling, hence the stay-at-home orders to slow community transmission.
We are beating all the projections by taking common-sense steps to protect ourselves and the people we care for. Heres the thing: thats not something weve ever tried before.
The abysmal estimates were based on the reality that Americans frequently depend on doctors and medications to save them, rather than taking charge of reducing their individual risk of illness.We know this because of the alarming rate of preventable, chronic illness throughout the country.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), six in 10Americans live with at least one chronic disease, such as heart disease, stroke, canceror diabetes. Not only are these the leading driver in health care costs in our country, but they also are the leading causes of death and disability.
The nations aging population, coupled with existing risk factors (tobacco use, poor diet, sedentary lifestyles), coupled with medical advances that extend longevity, tell us that the chronic disease problem will only worsen as our population ages. A recent Milken Institute analysis estimates that modest reductions in unhealthy behaviors could delay or evenprevent 40 million cases of chronic sickness per year.
Although it feels like an eternity, less than a month after stay-at-home orders were enacted, the courageous actions of our country have made a tremendous difference as we see promising signs of flattening the curve
If we learn how to effectively prevent chronic conditions through lifestyle changes, thus avoiding hospitalizations and serious complications, the health care system would be better equipped to handle any recurrent spikes in COVID-19 cases and future pandemics. Not to mention that decreasinghospitalizations would reduce the cost burden we all share in addition to improving the quality of life for millions of Americans.
Although it feels like an eternity, less than a month after stay-at-home orders were enacted, the courageous actions of our country have made a tremendous difference as we see promising signs of flattening the curve. But we cant do this forever.
As our unemployment is ticking closer 20 percentfrom people staying home, we must be reminded of a grave reality: based on information from the National Bureau of Economic Research: with every 1 percentincrease in unemployment, we can see up to a 3.6 percentincrease in overdose deaths and a 1 percentincrease in suicide across the country.If unemployment hits 32 percentthe worst-case scenario prediction of a St. Louis Federal Reserve economistsome 77,000 Americans may die in addition to those who were stricken with COVID-19.
Just as the threat of staying shut down is absolute, the danger in reopening and relaxing measures, however, is also very real. Singapore experienced a spike in new COVID-19 cases lastweek after initially seeing major successes as a result of its lockdown measures. Thiscould happen here as well
But a national shutdown is not a sustainable long-term solution.
That means, absent a vaccine or effective COVID-19 treatment, reopening must be gradual andspecific to individual states.Reopening measures can only occur when the rate of new infections has slowed substantially, hospital capacity is manageable, effective outpatient testing is in place and we are consistently able to contact trace and quarantine the infected and potentially infected.
In addition to securing adequate personal protective equipment, another key to maintain hospital preparedness for reopening is by lessening the burden on the system through healthy lifestyle choices such as improving our diets, increasing physical activity and getting our recommended wellness screenings for early disease detection.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR OUR OPINION NEWSLETTER
Social distancing measures and healthy behaviors recommended by health officials dont just lower disease mortality, they can reduce a pandemics long-term adverse economic effects.Unlike the secular stagnation that plagued America during the Great Depression, our country is chomping at the bit to reopen with people even protesting to be able to leave their homes again.
As our government attempts to put together the most appropriate opening strategy, the best economic package will be the best public health one. Even when stay-at-home orders are lifted the only way to improve the economy is to make Americans feel safe enough to go out and spend money rather than continuing to remain in the protection of their homes.
Until we have a vaccine ortreatment to lessen the severity of this novel coronavirus, we must rely onwhat we do have right now:theamazing ingenuity of the American people.I look tothe private business sector to implement measures that ensure proper sanitization, enhancecontact-free delivery and payment systems, and encourage digital platform utilization to limit unnecessary crowding of small spaces.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
For the rest of us, we can all contribute to a healthier America through continued useof social distancing, common-sense measures likeavoiding large crowds, staying home when sick, washing hands frequently throughout the day, wearing a mask if in close contact with others, and living the healthiest lives we can.
The renaissance will come, and it will be in an America with better hygiene and less chronic disease. I am counting on you, America, to make it happen.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE BY DR. NICOLE SAPHIER
Here is the original post:
Dr. Nicole Saphier: Coronavirus projections this is what the models couldn't measure - Fox News
- Vaping Illness Put Her In The ICU: Now She's Raising Awareness Of The Risks : Shots - Health News - NPR [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2019]
- Healthy Conversation Symposium teach students and faculty about healthy lifestyle - Daily Helmsman [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2019]
- Breast cancer survivor promotes healthy living through Sadie Strong organization - WGRZ.com [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2019]
- QMG partners with nutrition program to encourage healthy living - WGEM [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2019]
- Health briefs 10-07-19 | Healthy Living - Uniontown Herald Standard [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2019]
- The turnaround season requires healthy living - BIC Magazine [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2019]
- Healthy Living breaks ground on Williston store - Vermont Biz [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2019]
- City embarks on healthy living initiative - The Herald Argus [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2019]
- Healthy Living: Pumpkin coffee drinks and your health - ABC27 [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2019]
- In the cause of healthy living - Barbados Today [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 12th, 2019]
- Arc Healthy Living column: Norwich boy sees the benefits of helping disabled - Norwich Bulletin [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 12th, 2019]
- Healthy Living: Get back to you now that back to school is over - Vail Daily News [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 12th, 2019]
- Center celebrates 6 years of healthy living - Tyler Morning Telegraph [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 12th, 2019]
- Accessing Gods medicine for healthy living! - The Nation Newspaper [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 13th, 2019]
- Sports of all Sorts hosted special 'Harvest Tea' event for seniors committed to 'living a healthy lifestyle' - User-generated content [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 13th, 2019]
- Dole Coronates Disney's Frozen 2 With One of its Grandest Healthy-Lifestyle Programs Ever - PerishableNews [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 18th, 2019]
- The Campbell Soup Foundation Announces $1.5 Million in Grants to Strengthen and Empower Healthy Communities - Business Wire [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 18th, 2019]
- Healthy Living: Domestic violence thrives in silence - News - The Bulletin - Norwich Bulletin [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 18th, 2019]
- Here are tips that you must follow for a healthy lifestyle - Republic World - Republic World [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 18th, 2019]
- HEALTHY LIVING: 5 things to know about water yoga in Cheshire - Meriden Record-Journal [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 18th, 2019]
- SHIFT Labette will take healthy living message to community in 2020 - Parsons Sun [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 18th, 2019]
- 'Whole Home Concept House' Spotlights Healthy Living With Advanced LG Home Appliances - Business Wire [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 18th, 2019]
- Healthy living class for adults with disabilities teaches cooking, food safety - The San Diego Union-Tribune [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 18th, 2019]
- Healthy Living: Influenza - WABI [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 18th, 2019]
- Healthy Living: Don't pay the consequences this ski season, start training now with these tips - Vail Daily News [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 18th, 2019]
- 3 healthy eating habits from the longest living people in the world - Well+Good [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 20th, 2019]
- Juice your heart out with this beast of a machine it's 30 percent off today - Yahoo Lifestyle [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 20th, 2019]
- Local fitness instructors and nutritionists offer unique approaches to healthy living at Soul Vegfest - KSNT News [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: October 20th, 2019]
- Cardiac rehab after heart valve surgery tied to better outcomes - KFGO News [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 1st, 2019]
- Mild cognitive impairments show improvement with healthy lifestyle - Tyler Morning Telegraph [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 1st, 2019]
- She long advocated for heart health. Then her baby's life was saved by heart surgery - The Gazette [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 1st, 2019]
- Flu season is here | Healthy Living - Uniontown Herald Standard [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 1st, 2019]
- Health briefs 10-28-19 | Healthy Living - Uniontown Herald Standard [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 1st, 2019]
- Healthy habits hit school lunchrooms, activities - The Herald [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 1st, 2019]
- Laurinburg native releasing book on healthy living - Laurinburg Exchange [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 1st, 2019]
- Healthy Living: Guidelines for treatment of depression - WABI [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 1st, 2019]
- P90X Creator & Fitness Guru Tony Horton: Life is shorter than you think; Procrastination is the enemy; Putting things off assuming you've got all... [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 5th, 2019]
- Health briefs 11-04-19 | Healthy Living - Uniontown Herald Standard [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 5th, 2019]
- Healthy Living: November 5, 2019 - WABI [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 5th, 2019]
- Healthy Living, money for organ donation, new baby classes and more - NOLA.com [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 5th, 2019]
- UCLA Health partners with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar on health and wellness - UCLA Newsroom [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2019]
- Healthy Living: Adoptee loves everything about her life - Norwich Bulletin [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2019]
- Healthy living: don't get tricked | Opinions - The Capital Journal [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2019]
- Healthy living: A gift to yourself and the next generation - PhillyVoice.com [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 8th, 2019]
- There Are Many Health Benefits To Getting A Good Night's Sleep Here's How To Get More Of It - Essence [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 9th, 2019]
- HEALTHY LIVING: Being diagnosed with lung cancer, as a never smoker - Q13 News Seattle [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 9th, 2019]
- Record-breaking flu vaccinations at Health Center - The Brown and White [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 12th, 2019]
- Former MP and healthy living advocate dies - POST-COURIER [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 12th, 2019]
- 3 Tips to Live a Healthier Lifestyle - Thrive Global [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 12th, 2019]
- Finding the healthy lifestyle that works for you - BYU-I Scroll [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 12th, 2019]
- Healthy Living: Better Together | Opinions - The Capital Journal [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 12th, 2019]
- Health briefs 11-11-19 | Healthy Living - Uniontown Herald Standard [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 12th, 2019]
- 'Healthy Living' event slated, and more health news items - NOLA.com [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 12th, 2019]
- 101-year-old WWII veteran credits moderation, healthy living as secret to longevity - Daily Herald [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 12th, 2019]
- Healthy Living: The benefits of yoga - ABC27 [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 12th, 2019]
- How to eat and live healthy in a Swiggy-Zomato-Uber Eats world - BusinessLine [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- No, e-bikes arent cheating - The Verge [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- I Want to Be Healthier: Q&A with Traverse City Behavioral Health Specialist Mandy Remai - MyNorth.com [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- Moderate Wine Consumption Linked to Lower Risk of Lung Disease - Wine Spectator [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- Family finds fitness and much more at YMCA - GazetteNET [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- Southern Cancer Center Thanksgiving Food Drive | Healthy Living - FOX10 News [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- Toms River Pediatrician, Dr. Charita Y. Csiky Featured in 2019 Top Doctor Edition of Healthy Living Magazine - Benzinga [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- Would Kourtney Kardashian Be As Obsessed With Healthy Living If She Wasn't Famous? - Showbiz Cheat Sheet [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- Your Biggest Health and Fitness Questions, Answered! Join Our AMA With Katie Dunlop of Love Sweat... - POPSUGAR [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- Flu Prevention Tips for Kids | Healthy Living - FOX10 News [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- Coolgreens to Open Third DFW Restaurant in Old Town - RestaurantNews.com [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- Toms River Pediatrician, Dr. Charita Y. Csiky Featured in 2019 Top Doctor Edition of Healthy Living Magazine - PR Web [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- OU Receives Grant to Expand Healthy Living Efforts in Pontiac - Patch.com [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- Kim Kardashian Dragged Kourtney Kardashian for Wanting Healthy Candy at Their Daughters Birthday Parties - Cosmopolitan.com [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- Grant will explore low vision's impact on healthy lifestyle behaviors - UAB News [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2019]
- At CIIE 2019 Panasonic Showcases Solutions to Help Bring to Life China's "Healthy China 2030" Vision - Business Wire [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 16th, 2019]
- Men and women subtly see their own health differently - Ladders [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 16th, 2019]
- Participants Sought for National Trial to Test Benefits of a Healthy Lifestyle - Newswise [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 16th, 2019]
- Bradford's health data below UK average - but healthy lifestyle is cheaper - Bradford Telegraph and Argus [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 18th, 2019]
- 6 health benefits of eating wild game - TribLIVE [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 18th, 2019]
- Senior Life: 5 Simple Ways to Maintain Your Heart Health and Prevent Heart Disease - The Delaware County Daily Times [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 18th, 2019]
- Oakland University awarded $400,000 for Pontiac health programs | Local News - The Oakland Press [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 18th, 2019]
- Healthy Living: How to host the holidays in a world of food restrictions - Q13 News Seattle [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 18th, 2019]
- Health briefs 11-18-19 | Healthy Living - Uniontown Herald Standard [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 18th, 2019]
- Healthy Living Catalog | AmeriMark | AmeriMark [Last Updated On: August 18th, 2024] [Originally Added On: November 18th, 2019]