The U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding the federal health care law was a victory for President Obama, but it also could put a repeal of the individual mandate within reach of Republicans if they can win both the White House and a simple Senate majority.
A repeal of the entire law Obamas major policy initiative is all but a mathematical impossibility. To do away with the law, Republicans would have to win the presidential election, maintain their majority in the House and nail down a super majority capable of withstanding a filibuster in the Senate.
But because the mandate requiring nearly all Americans to buy health insurance was found constitutional based on its falling within Congress taxing authority, this part of the law could be repealed through an arcane process known as budget reconciliation, the same process used to pass the Affordable Care Act two years ago, a former parliamentarian of the U.S. Senate says.
And the budget reconciliation process requires only 51 votes to make changes, so long as one is reducing and not adding tax revenues to the budget.
That makes Chief Justice John Roberts majority opinion about as important to U.S. Senate races this year as it is to the presidential election, and perhaps nowhere more so than in Floridas match-up between incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, a Democrat, and U.S. Rep. Connie Mack, who is expected to win the Republican primary.
The latest Quinnipiac University poll, released this week before the Supreme Courts decision, showed Mack and Nelson in a dead heat.
It takes 60 votes to overcome the threat of a filibuster in the Senate. Democrats hold 51 seats, a four-seat edge over Republicans. Two independents Sens. Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders - nearly always vote with the Democrats.
Democrats, including Nelson, hold 21 of the 33 seats up for re-election in November, and six seats five now held by Democrats are open.
This is one of those situations where the stars are arranged in the right way for the Republicans. The magic number of four looks very doable, Lynn University political science professor Robert Watson said.
Robert Dove, who served as the Senates parliamentarian through 2001, said, Theres no question that if (the mandate) is indeed a tax, you can repeal taxes using reconciliation.
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Health care ruling strengthens GOP ability, resolve to repeal mandate
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