In what looks to be the biggest Supreme Court decision since Bush v. Gore, the highest court in the land will give its opinion on whether or not the Affordable Care Act (:ACA), popularly known as 'Obamacare', is constitutional. The decision looks to come during the final day of the Supreme Court's session before breaking for the summer and it will undoubtedly be a landmark result either way.

A great deal of the debate is centered on the 'individual mandate' or a stipulation in the bill which required all U.S. citizens and legal residents to obtain government-approved health insurance. If people do not get this insurance, they will have to pay a fine as a penalty for not doing so starting in 2014.

Some on the right believe that this is unconstitutional as the government cannot force you to engage in a contact with a private company. They also feel that by giving the government this power, there is no telling what can be mandated next in any industry under the guise of doing it for the public good (read Invest Like The One Percent with These Three ETFs).

Meanwhile, those on the left believe that the individual mandate is nothing more than a tax, no different than social security or Medicare, each of which we are forced to pay into already as a form of insurance. Beyond that, the left's arguments can also consist of a focus on the Commerce Clause, which gives Congress the ability to regulate economic activity connected to interstate commerce, presumably such as health care.

This issue is at the crux of the health care debate and it appears to be the main focus of the constitutionality in the Obamacare law. With that being said, it should be noted that there are realistically three outcomes for Thursday; the entire bill is constitutional, the mandate is unconstitutional but the rest of the bill is acceptable, or that the mandate is unconstitutional and 'unseverable' from the rest of the bill, rendering the entire ACA bill unconstitutional.

Likely Outcomes

I think it is fair to say that both sides make some excellent points regarding the debate and that this issue really could go one way or another. However, while the decision may still be uncertain, the markets and many participants in the process are starting to believe that the court will rule against the mandate but leave the rest of ACA intact (see Could The Small Cap Health Care ETF Be A Great Pick?).

In fact, Intrade, an online prediction market, currently has the chances of the individual mandate being ruled unconstitutional (before the end of the year) at roughly a three-out-of-four rate. Additionally, a poll of legal experts now expects the Supreme Court to find the individual mandate unconstitutional, although not by a wide margin.

While it is also possible that the Court can postpone the decision to later on in the year, many view this as unlikely. Probably also out of the cards is the Court postponing a decision due to the 'Anti-Injunction Act' suggesting that the ruling will be coming sooner rather than later for Obama's hallmark piece of domestic legislation.

Stock Market Impact

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Health Care ETFs in Focus on Obamacare Supreme Court Decision