Sheryl Connelly is the rare auto-industry expert who has almost nothing to do with cars. As Ford Motors manager of global trends and the future, her role isnt to look at the industry but outside it, to determine what factors will influence cars in the coming decades. Fast Company magazine recently named Connelly to its list of 100 most creative business people. We sat down with her at Fords Irvine, Calif., headquarters to peer into her crystal ball.

Q: As Fords first and only in-house futurist, what exactly are you trying to achieve?

A: It takes Ford Motor three years to bring a vehicle to market, so even if we have the most ingenious idea today, what feels cutting edge at this point might not be. We have no crystal ball, but we can look to five arenas for guidance: social, technological, economic, environmental and political.

Q: Why those five arenas?

A: You start there because youll never be able to predict the future, but those will be the forces that shape the landscape. It gives us a framework to play in this space of What if? and If so, then what? You talk about the possibilities, and then you explore what it means for the industry what it does to demand, supply, competitors, retail, the distribution network. Only if youve explored all of that do you even ask what that means for Ford.

Q: What timeline are you looking at?

A: The most distant function in the Ford team is advanced product research and engineering. Its trying to figure out what technologies are on the horizon and what to invest in. Their time horizon is 10, 20 years out.

Q: How far into the future are you looking?

A: 2050 is the furthest I go. This work is a delicate balance because you want to be provocative, but you have to be plausible.

Q: What might be on the horizon 37 years from now that youre already contemplating?

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As Ford’s futurist, Connelly ponders a changing world