Locking in Climate Change for Thousands of Years

Monsoon rains continued in different parts of the country on Tuesday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department's website.

Many parts of the world are suffering from torrential rains and violent storms this summer.  Can they be related to climate change?  They probably are.  And the weather will continue to worsen, unless we do something about GHG emissions as soon as possible.  It’s not just people alive now we have to worry about either.  What kind of crime will we be accused of by future generations for forcing them to live in an inhospitable climate?

According to a new report from the National Research Council, choices made now about carbon dioxide emissions reductions will affect climate change impacts experienced not just over the next few decades but also in coming centuries and millennia.

See the report and read more here. You can also read the entire report online free on this page.

Because CO2 in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock the Earth and future generations into a range of impacts, some of which could become very severe.

Policy choices about emissions can be informed by recent advances in climate research that quantify the relationships between atmospheric CO2 and warming levels, and between warming levels and future impacts. Drawing upon this research, the report estimates changes in precipitation, stream flow, wildfires, crop yields, and sea level rise that can be expected with different degrees of warming. It also estimates the average temperature increases that would be likely if CO2 were stabilized in the atmosphere at various target levels. However, the report does not recommend any particular stabilization target, noting that choosing among different targets is a policy choice rather than strictly a scientific one because of questions of values regarding how much risk or damage to people or to nature might be considered too much.

Increased Confidence About Future Impacts

Although some important future effects of climate change are difficult to quantify, there is now increased confidence in how global warming of various levels would relate to several key impacts, says the report. It lists some of these impacts per degree Celsius (or per 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of global warming, for example (these apply for 1 C to 4 C of warming):

5 percent to 10 percent less total rain in southwest North America, the Mediterranean, and southern Africa per degree Celsius of warming.
5 percent to 10 percent less stream flow in some river basins, including the Arkansas and Rio Grande, per degree Celsius of warming.
5 percent to 15 percent lower yields of some crops, including U.S. and African corn and Indian wheat, per degree Celsius of warming.

While total rain is expected to decrease in some areas, more of the rain that does occur is [...]

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