TRAHANT REPORTS September is going to be a mess. Congress must sort out some really complicated fiscal issues. There is the budget, an increase in the debt limit, how much to spend on federal programs and services, and, if theres time, tax reform.

This should be easy in a one-party government. Republicans come up with a budget plan. Then the House acts, the Senate does its thing, and President Donald J. Trump signs the idea into law. Easy. Except there is no Republican majority in Congress (other than the R listed by members names.)

The House is made up of at least three factions, or parties, and no majority. (The three groups are: Republicans, Democrats, and the more conservative House Freedom Caucus.) So in order to gather enough votes to pass a budget, or any other of the challenges, at least two of the three factions have to agree on a plan.

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The Senate has its own divisions within the Republican Party. (The very reason why a Republican replacement for the Affordable Care Act has not yet become law.)

And the White House is not on the same page either. The president proposed a stingy budget thats been pretty much rejected by members of the House and the Senate (except the more conservative elements such as the House Freedom Caucus.)

Courtesy Trahant Reports

Mark Trahant, Trahant Reports

For example the Trump administration proposed budget calls for$4.7 billion for the Indian Health Service, a cut of some $300 million or 6 percent of the agencys budget. But a House spending plan calls for anincrease of $97 million over last years levels. Indeed,the Appropriations Committeethat funds IHS and the Bureau of Indian Affairs plans to spend a total of $4.3 billion more than the president requested on programs under its jurisdiction. (In general: The presidents budget reflects significant budget cuts across Indian country,according to analysis by the National Congress of American Indians.)

The Senate will come up with its own spending plan. Then, in theory, the two houses will resolve their differences and agree on how much the federal government should spend next year (and the president can go along or veto the legislation and start all over).

But no. Thats not how Congress is actually legislating these days. More often Congress agrees to a temporary spending plan based on last years budget, the Continuing Resolution. Thats an easier sell to members because it represents a last minute, throw up your hands, and do something, approach. The other alternative is a government shutdown. President Trump tweeted in May that our country needs a good shutdown in September to fix mess!

Yes, the budget is a mess. Period. Even take the word, budget. Thats a proposal from the president. But in Congress a budget is a spending limit that Congress imposes on itself. It sets a ceiling that each of the 12 Appropriations subcommittees have to live with. And, more important right now, the budget sets the rules for debate so the Senate can pass some legislation (such as the health care bill) with only 50 votes. (Most bills need 60 votes to stop a filibuster from stopping the process.)

Back to the congressional budget. Last month the Budget Committee approved a plan that would cut domestic spending by $2.9 trillion over the next decade. The full House will vote on this plan when it returns. Its a bleak document that would end up slashing many of the programs that serve American Indians and Alaska Natives. Remember the appropriations committees would still spend the money; but the budget would act as an overall cap.

This budget plan starts off withhistorically low federal spendingfollowed by even more severe budget cuts between now and 2027. To show how out of touch this budget is, it includes program cuts for Medicaid that were a part of the failed health care legislation. (Whats changed? Nothing.) This bill tips toward the conservatives who want more spending cuts to be sooner, as in right now.

That makes the problem political. There are probably not enough votes to make this budget so. A few Republicans dont see this harsh approach as good government. And even if the votes are found in the House, the Senate is another story. Think health care.

And if this budget cannot pass, its not likely there is another one that would.Democrats in the House say: Congress cannot continue to underfund these crucial investments (and) without relief from these spending caps, vital government programs are facing significant cuts for fiscal year 2018 that would have significant effects on American families all across the country.

And the budget is only one fiscal crisis. Another issue that is immediate and serious involves the debt limit. Thats the amount of money the federal government can borrow is currently set at $19.85 trillion (federal debt exceeds that level now, but the Secretary of Treasury can basically shuffle money from different accounts). Conservatives want spending cuts as part of any deal to increase the debt limit. As Rep. Tom Cole, R-OK, and a member of the Chickasaw Tribe, told MSNBC. A debt limit increase without spending cuts is like having a credit card and saying, Ive reached my limit, Im just going to change the limit higher without changing any of my spending habits.

But, like on the budget, the votes are not there. (Especially in the Senate where 60 votes will be needed.)

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This is tricky because the Republican administration understands what failure could do to the country. Budget director, Mick Mulvaney, is now supporting a debt limit increase. But when he served in Congress, Mulvaney said he was willing to risk a default to force a discussion on spending.

In both the House and the Senate votes from Democrats will be needed to pass the debt limit. But will there be enough Republicans.

If Congress does not pass the debt limit, the United States would be catastrophic. And, almost immediately, this failure would impact federal budgets because interest rates would spike upward. Interest rates are already the fastest growing part of the federal budget and a sharp increase in rates would add significantly to the total federal debt. In other words: By voting against a debt limit increase, Congress would make the debt problem worse. Far worse.

But Republicans have campaigned against a debt limit increase for a long time. Its going to be one tough vote.

In case youre keeping score:

So yes, September is going to be a mess. And after the budget, spending bills, and debt limit is complete, theres still tax reform on the agenda. Yet another mess.

Mark Trahant is theCharles R. Johnson Endowed Professorof Journalism at the University of North Dakota. He is an independent journalist and a member ofThe Shoshone-Bannock Tribes.OnTwitter @TrahantReports.

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September Will Be a Mess in Congress; Budget, Spending and Debt Fights Ahead - Indian Country Today Media Network