Momentum seen moving toward NH House passage of budget plan – WMUR Manchester

CONCORD, N.H.

Its virtually impossible to predict the actions of the New Hampshire House on close call votes, but several key lawmakers said Tuesday it appears momentum is moving in the direction of passage of a fiscal 2018-2019 budget later this week.

The House and Senate will vote up-or-down Thursday on a conference committee compromise $11.7 billion spending plan for the next two fiscal years. Senate approval is virtually assured on a 14-9 party line vote, while the House is far less certain.

House Speaker Shawn Jasper, R-Hudson, told WMUR last Thursday there would be an all-out push to touch every member and try to convince opponents and undecided members to vote in favor.

Jasper said Tuesday the effort has moved into high gear. House Republicans held the first of three closed-door caucuses following a public budget briefing led by legislative budget staffers and the chairs of the House and Senate finance committees. House GOP caucuses are scheduled for both Wednesday and Thursday morning ahead of the vote.

Gov. Chris Sununu, investing some of his own political capital, has been speaking extensively to lawmakers, while state Republican Party Chairman Jeanie Forrester, a former state senator, has also been deeply involved.

Its going very well, Jasper told WMUR. Were still working hard. I dont want to be over-confident, but the movement is in our direction and its moving pretty rapidly.

The fate of the budget will depend on the votes of conservative House members who identify with the House Republican Alliance or the New Hampshire House Freedom Caucus. Some attend meetings of both groups.

After an HRA meeting Tuesday morning, Rep. Glenn Cordelli, R-Tuftonboro, a group co-chair, said that he expects to be a yes vote. He said that within the HRA opinion is split.

There are some parts of the budget that I greatly appreciate the work of the conferees in including, he said, citing business tax cuts and an increase in the rainy day fund.

Do I wish it was lower? Probably so, Cordelli said. Im still looking at it, but Im leaning toward voting for it, he said.

Reps. Jim McConnell, R-Swanzey, and JR Hoell, R-Dunbarton, key members of the Freedom Caucus, continue to oppose the plan because they said it simply includes too much state general fund spending. Hoell said the increase is 9.6 percent over general fund spending in the current fiscal 2016-2017 spending plan.

But McConnell acknowledged that momentum is moving in the direction of passage.

Over the past week, the leadership has done a great deal of work and managed to create the idea that knocking the budget down will generate something that will be absolutely horrendous, he said.

My sense of things, quite candidly, has changed because recently a number of people who had said there was no way they would ever support the budget have now decided that maybe it isnt so bad and will vote for it, McConnell said.

We are looking at a very close vote, he said. I remain opposed to it and will do what I can to defeat it.

According to a document distributed by the House and Senate leadership at Tuesdays briefing, the plan calls for state general fund and education trust funding spending of $4.9 billion, while total spending, including federal and other funds, totals $11.72 billion.

The budget contains business tax cuts and repeals the electricity consumption tax. It increases the states rainy day fund from $93 million to $100 million while boosting funding for substance abuse prevention and treatment by nearly 60 percent.

Vote breakdown

There are currently 393 members in the House 221 Republicans, 170 Democrats and two Libertarians -- with six vacancies and one recently elected member who has yet to be sworn in. If all members attend the Thursday session, which is unlikely, 197 votes will be required for passage.

House Democratic Leader Steve Shurtleff of Penacook on Tuesday reiterated his belief that his caucus will unanimously oppose the budget. If that occurs, only 27 additional votes - the two Libertarians and 25 Republicans, for example will be enough to kill it, which would lead to further conference committee negotiations.

House and Senate Democrats will hold a press conference Wednesday morning to discuss their opposition to the plan.

Shurtleff has cited the budgets provision to end the states Medicaid expansion plan if the federal government does not grant a waiver allowing the state to impose a work or job training requirement on new entrants into the system.

He cited the insertion of Hyde Amendment language prohibiting the state from funding health care facilities that provide abortions.

I think its going to be a very close vote, but I think it will fail, Shurtleff said. Theres something in there for everybody to dislike, and if it fails, it can be ironed out in a renewed committee of conference.

If a budget agreement is not reached by the June 30 end of the fiscal year, it is possible a continuing resolution, to keep spending at current levels, will be passed while further negotiations take place. But Jasper said Sununu has made it clear to legislative leaders he does not want to turn to a continuing resolution.

Key legislative leaders met with the Freedom Caucus Monday night in Manchester, while Forrester and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Gary Daniels attended the HRA meeting Tuesday morning.

The HRA takes its positions based on the (state) constitution and the Republican Party platform, Cordelli said. But other representatives might have other considerations as well, such as what theyve heard from constituents.

And, believe it or not, there might be a political factor.

State Rep. Al Baldasaro, R-Londonderry, an HRA member, said that like most lawmakers, he is not in agreement with all aspects of the budget, but he supports the business tax cuts. He also said there are no tax or fee increases that would affect his constituents.

So, Im going bite my tongue, hold my nose and vote for the budget, Baldasaro said.

I think other conservatives are going to come on board, he said. If we dont pass this budget, we could lose some things, like the tax cuts, and we dont want that.

I think its going to pass, Baldasaro said. If I was a betting man, Id say today we have the numbers. Were close.