OPINION: There are just ten weeks until the general election and the campaigning season is well under way. There will be controversial referendums on legalisation of recreational cannabis and on law that would allow euthanasia.

And this comes as the world is still in the grip of the worst pandemic since 1918.

Surely, your votes count more than ever this election. And, to us at Massey University and at Stuff, your opinions about government performance and policies are greatly valued.

Thats why we are running a pre-election survey that asks about the effects on you of the Covid-19 pandemic and numerous other topical matters.

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From the middle of last year until early this year, the National Party was leading Labour in the opinion polls.

In 2017, ahead of the last election, Stuff and Massey University conducted two similar online surveys. We wanted to hear your political opinions your hopes, fears and expectations.

At that time, political commentators were mainly chattering about the dual shocks of the Brexit referendum and the election of Donald Trump the year before. Populist politics was the big issue.

We wondered if there would be a similar voter backlash in New Zealand.

The 2017 survey asked how much people trusted (or distrusted) governments, and what the mood of the nation was. The results revealed a high level of discontent and desire for change.

Large majorities were concerned about poverty and inequality in New Zealand.

After that election, we witnessed a change of government to a Labour-led coalition with NZ First, supported by the Greens.

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Since then, we have also witnessed horrific terrorist attacks on Muslims, the tragedy at Whakaari/White Island, a global pandemic, a strict national lockdown and, as if that werent enough, an economic recession.

Covid-19 is forging significant social and economic change. Public opinion has shifted dramatically in ways that we could not have anticipated a mere six months ago.

From the middle of last year until early this year, the National Party was leading Labour in the opinion polls, by up to seven percentage points.

The pandemic and the governments responses to it have turned that around, however. Labours polling sky-rocketed above 55 per cent between April and June, during the lockdown. National dropped as low as 26.5 per cent.

Such high polling for Labour is unlikely to last into the election. But public opinion these days is, to say the least, volatile.

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Remember Jacinda-mania? The change of leader boosted Labour to 37 per cent at the last election.

So, Stuff and Massey are running another collaborative online survey, similar to those we did in 2017. The first round will be open for you to complete for the week beginning Sunday.

This pre-election survey will give you the opportunity to express your feelings on the present governments performance, on how lockdown has affected you, and on some key political issues.

You get to tell us how things look from your point of view. In return, we will feed back some key survey findings with expert commentary.

This will stimulate pre-electoral dialogue on the real needs, perceptions and aspirations of voters. It will reduce the space available for political point-scoring, misinformation and scandal.

The last election was a roller-coaster ride. In July 2017, Labour looked like it was heading south of 25 per cent support.

The second round of the Stuff/Massey survey ran during the same week in which Jacinda Ardern took over the leadership of Labour from Andrew Little just seven weeks out from the election. Labour supporters piled in to complete the survey.

Supplied

Associate Professor Grant Duncan teaches political theory and New Zealand politics at Massey University.

Many participants commented that they were switching their votes to Labour because of Ardern.

Remember Jacinda-mania? The change of leader boosted Labour to 37 per cent at the election, partly at the expense of the Greens who dropped to 6.3 per cent. Nationals result was 44.4 per cent.

No party had enough seats to form a government, however, and New Zealand First held the balance of power. So, we waited another four weeks while negotiations went on over the formation of a new government.

Looking back, the only thing that political pundits could have predicted was that things would be unpredictable.

And now, Covid-19 has introduced yet another level of unpredictability. It will have a big impact on the election result. But well just have to wait and see what that impact will be.

Elimination of the virus was one major challenge. Recovering from a sudden recession is another.

Two of our most important income-earning industries (tourism and export education) are in dire straits due to border controls.

In May, Budget 2020 predicted unemployment would rise to 9.8 per cent in September just as we go to the polls.

Many voters will be feeling understandably insecure and grumpy on polling day. How much will the government of the day get the blame? Do voters want change or continuity in government?

You can at least look forward to another unpredictable election. And, in the meantime, you can do the Stuff/Massey pre-election survey.

Associate Professor Grant Duncan teaches political theory and New Zealand politics at Massey Universitys Albany campus in Auckland.

Read more:

Politics and the pandemic: have your say on this year's high-stakes election - Stuff.co.nz