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Opinion

By RICH LOWRY

October 24, 2019

Rich Lowry is editor of National Review and a contributing editor with Politico Magazine.

Republican senators will soon be receiving an invitation to tear apart the Republican Party ahead of the 2020 elections, and they are going to decline to accept it.

Its a trope of pro-impeachment commentary that it should be simple for Republican senators to swap out President Donald Trump, who puts them in an awkward position every day, for Vice President Mike Pence, an upstanding Reagan conservative who could start with a fresh slate in the runup to the 2020 election.

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This ideas only flaw is that is entirely removed from reality.

If Senate Republicans vote to remove Trump on anything like the current facts, even the worst possible interpretation of them, it would leave the GOP a smoldering ruin. It wouldnt matter who the Democrats nominated for 2020. They could run Bernie Sanders on a ticket balanced by Elizabeth Warren and promise to make Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez secretary of the Treasury and Ilhan Omar secretary of Defense, and theyd still win.

A significant portion of the Republican Party would consider a Senate conviction of Trump a dastardly betrayal. Perhaps most would get over it, as partisan feelings kicked in around a national election, but not all. And so a party that has managed to win the popular vote in a presidential election only once since 1988 would hurtle toward November 2020 divided.

How does anyone think that would turn out?

A lot of Trump supporters are going to want to blame the Republican establishment even if Trump loses in 2020 fair and square, with the backing of the united party apparatus. Imagine what they will think if a couple of dozen Republican senators decide to deny him the opportunity to run for reelection, without a single Republican voter having a say on his ultimate fate. Its hard to come up with any scenario better designed to stoke the populist furies of Trumps most devoted voters.

Trump himself isnt going to get convicted by the Senate and say, Well, Im a little disappointed in your judgment to be honest. But it was a close call, and Mike Pence is a great guy, and Im just grateful I had the opportunity to serve this country in the White House for more than three years.

He wont go away quietly to lick his wounds. He wont delete his Twitter account. He wont make it easy on anyone. He will vent his anger and resentment at every opportunity. It will be human scum every single day.

And its not as though the media is going to lose its interest in the most luridly telegenic politician that weve ever seen. The mainstream press would be delighted to see Trump destroyed, yet sad to bid him farewell. The obvious way to square the circle would be to continue to give Trump lavish coverage in his post-presidency. Hed be out of the White House but still driving screaming CNN chyrons every other hour.

In other words, Trumps removal wouldnt be a fresh start for Pence and the GOP in an accelerated post-Trump era; it would be more like getting stuck in the poisonous epilogue of the Trump era, awaiting the inevitable advent of the Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg era.

All of this is why the cracks in the Republican Senate coverage is so ridiculous and overwrought. It depends on the idea that GOP senators who, it is true, are continually frustrated by Trumps controversies are on the verge of engineering their partys own destruction. There was even some cracks showing analysis around Mitch McConnell saying the other day that he didnt remember a conversation with Trump, as recounted by the president, praising his call with the Ukrainian president. The obvious explanation is that McConnell really didnt recall such a conversation, not that the shrewdest, most realistic politician in Washington was getting ready to immolate himself and his party as soon as the articles of impeachment arrive from the House.

Mitt Romney has gotten a lot of coverage for his excoriating comments about the Ukraine mess and the Syria pullout. He really might vote to convict when it comes to it, but hes not a broad indicator of the direction of the party. As goes Romney on impeachment ... so goes Romney on impeachment.

Its possible to come up with a scenario in which Ukraine developments are much worse than its possible to imagine right now, and Trumps support craters, even among Republicans. Then, you might have GOP senators voting to convict. This is just another path to the destruction of the partys hopes in 2020, though, because theres no way it would snap back from a Nixonian meltdown at the top in less than a year.

In short, Mike Pence might be elected president one day, but its not going to be while presiding over a party that has just jettisoned Donald Trump.

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The Fantasy of Republicans Ditching Trump - POLITICO