For Trump, the Burden May Be Proving This Is Not the Moment His Critics Predicted – The New York Times

michael barbaro

From The New York Times, Im Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily.

Today: In the streets of Tehran, Iranians are mourning the loss of General Qassim Suleimani. My colleague Farnaz Fassihi on what they feel theyve lost.

Its Tuesday, January 7.

[CHANTING]

Monday morning was the start of the official state funeral for General Qassim Suleimani.

[SINGING]

By 8:00 a.m., there were millions of people out in downtown Tehran. He was being celebrated as a national hero, but also as a religious martyr and a saint.

[SINGING AND DRUMMING]

There were families. There were men, women, children. They had the symbolic Shia ritual symbols out feathers, swords, drums, music, eulogies, songs.

[CHANTING]

And the crowd also had a very anti-American and defiant mood. People were sad, but they were also very angry, and we heard a lot of revenge, revenge, and no more negotiations with the U.S., its time for battle, chanted by the crowd.

[SPEAKING]

Irans supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, recited the Muslim prayer of the dead on General Suleimanis coffin.

[SPEAKING]

In the middle of the prayer, several times he paused and openly cried.

[SPEAKING] [CROWD MOANING]

And the crowd also wept very loudly with him. As a reporter whos covered Iran for over 25 years, what struck me was that the people who had attended were not just supporters of the regime, but a lot of people who were generally very critical of the regime.

Hmm.

To be clear, there are plenty of Iranians who did not love or respect General Suleimani. But there were activists, there were opposition figures who had been jailed by the regime who attended. And when I asked them, why are you there? Why are you going? The response was, General Suleimani protected our national security. He transcended politics. He was a national hero. And I was talking to some young people who had attended his funeral, and I spoke to a 22-year-old young man, a university student, and I asked him, why are you at the funeral? And he said, knowing General Suleimani was out there made me feel safer. He was like a security umbrella above our country. And thats a sentiment that I heard over and over.

You know, what youre describing feels like the kind of unified national outpouring that is reserved for a small handful of figures in any country, right? I mean, a beloved president, a civil rights leader like Martin Luther King in the United States, not for what our colleagues have described as a general who specializes in covert operations in Iran.

I think its difficult for most people in the United States and outside of Iran, and perhaps the region, to grasp the unique place and role that General Suleimani played in Iran and in regional politics. He was singlehandedly the most revered and influential character in Iran.

So how did Suleimani cultivate that role? How did he make Iranians feel that way? Where does that story start?

In many ways, General Suleimanis story begins with the story of Irans revolution in 1979.

He was a young man working construction jobs in the small city of Kerman in the southwest, from a low-income family.

Mm-hmm.

His education was high school diploma level, and he got swept up in the revolution, in the promise of Islam becoming the foundation of a government, and of promises to empower the oppressed and low-income class in Iran, which had been neglected and sidelined under the pro-Western monarchy of the shah. So General Suleimani gets a job at the local water plant and volunteers for the local chapter of the Revolutionary Guards, and quickly rises up and shows a lot of promise as a military man. When the war with Iraq happened in the 1980s, he was a commander for eight years. And after the war ended, he was named the commander of the Quds Forces. And that was really the beginning of the Quds Forces, and the Islamic Republics ambition to create a paramilitary in the region, and to kind of export the idea of an Islamic revolution of Shia dominance outside of the borders of Iran.

And why does Iran, and someone like Suleimani, want to export this revolution?

The Islamic Republic theocracy was the first time that a Shia government had come to power in the Middle East. The Islamic faith is divided along Sunnis and Shias, and the division and rivalry go back all the way to the early days of Islam and the succession of Prophet Muhammad. And Shias have always been a minority in the faith. With Saudi Arabia sort of as the custodian of the Sunni faith, Iran has, for centuries, wanted to establish itself as the protector of the minority Shias. And the theocracy of the Islamic Republic gave them the foundation and the structure to do that. And as soon as they had established their government in power in the country, they started looking externally. And General Suleimani was pivotal in expanding the ambitions of Irans military and political apparatus in the Middle East.

And how exactly does he do that?

So General Suleimani was instrumental in elevating Irans strategy in the region through the proxy militia groups that it had created. And he started in Lebanon, where Iran had already created two Shia militia groups, Amal al-Islami and Hezbollah, and he helped them in their fight with Israeli soldiers that were occupying Lebanon, and later on in the battles that Hezbollah and Lebanon fought. General Suleimani also becomes very involved with Palestinian militant groups Hamas, Islamic Jihad who also see an alliance between their ideologies and Islamic Republic of Iran.

And when you say that Suleimani becomes involved in these groups, what does that actually mean? What is he doing?

He helps them come up with battlefield plans, and he dispatches his underlings to go and train and fund and form these groups, providing them with weapons, providing them with money, and providing them with strategy. And he gains this reputation of being the shadow commander, the man whos everywhere but nowhere. If General Suleimani is present on the ground, then Iran is present.

So under Suleimani, Iran is making itself felt across the Middle East through these relationships to these militias. Does that strategy succeed?

Irans strategy succeeds, but its limited to the shores of the Mediterranean with Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. But that changes in 2003 with the United States invasion of Iraq.

Well be right back.

U.S. warships and planes launched the opening salvo of Operation Iraqi Freedom. The attack came in waves

So Farnaz, how exactly did the U.S. invasion of Iraq provide an opportunity for Suleimani and for this strategy that hes pursuing for Iran?

Until the U.S. invasion of Iraq, the country was ruled by Saddam Hussein and Sunnis, and Shias who were aligned to Iran were marginalized. When the United States toppled Saddam Hussein, Shias rose to power, and many of these Shia leaders and political and religious figures had very close ties to Iran. And Iran really seized that opportunity. It used these contacts and networks and relationships to gain influence and penetrate Iraqi society. And General Suleimani once again becomes the pivotal character in helping realize this strategy and this aspiration.

So an unintended consequence of America invading Iraq is that it ends up empowering Iran.

When I was living and working in Iraq in those early days after the invasion, most of the Sunni Iraqis that we would meet and interview would say that the U.S. invasion delivered Iraq on a golden platter to Iran.

Wow. So what does Suleimani do with this opening that he sees in Iraq?

General Suleimani uses the opening to further expand Irans influence in Iraq and in the region. He helps create Shia militia. He recruits allies, a network of politicians, religious men and militant groups who were loyal to Irans ambitions in Iraq. The Shia militia that he helped create were also responsible for attacks on U.S. soldiers, for the killing of U.S. soldiers, and for civilian deaths.

When the Civil War started in Syria in 2011, Iran vowed to keep President Bashar al-Assad in power. Mr. Assad and his constituents are an offshoot of Shia Islam, and religiously and politically aligned with Iran. This is where Iraq comes in. Because of the relationships and networks and influence that General Suleimani had in Iraq, he was able to use Iraq by land and by air to funnel support for Syrias war. Weapons, missiles, even soldiers that were trained in Iran were shipped to Syria by way of Iraq.

So Suleimanis strategy in Iraq it doesnt just fend off the Americans who have invaded there. It means that Iran and Suleimani could use Iraq to assist allies like Assad in Syria and in all these other battles throughout the region.

Exactly. Iraq becomes a geographic extension of Iran and its interests in the region. And by the time ISIS takes over parts of Syria in Idlib and parts of Iraq in Mosul, the Iraqi government and even the Americans were at wits end on what to do to battle this growing threat of ISIS.

So what does the rise of ISIS mean for Iran, and what does that mean for Iranian influence and for Suleimanis role?

The rise of ISIS was a threat to Iran. It was an existential threat to the Shia government of Iran, because ISIS represented the most extreme version of Sunni faith. And again, General Suleimani mobilizes. He goes to Iraq and he repeats a true and proven formula once again by recruiting volunteers, the instrumental ground force in helping the United States and Iraqs army to battle ISIS. Therefore, Mr. Suleimani, although hes seen as a foe of the United States, in the battle of ISIS actually becomes a default ally. For General Suleimani, the rise of ISIS was a turning point. He went from being a commander in the shadows, a mystery figure, to being a household name.

Hmm. And why is he suddenly a public figure because of ISIS?

Because Iran wanted to counter ISISs propaganda machinery.

ISIS is using its cash and media-savvy Western militants to recruit and radicalize.

The branded content. Theyre mixing graphics, moving images, music, chants, all the

cataloging and posting in near real time their war crimes.

They utilize social media and Twitter and Facebook to recruit, to spread their propaganda to target their messaging.

And this is a mujatweet, a short, promotional video which shows a softer side of jihad. Here, a Belgian hands out ice cream to excited Syrian children.

And they create a personality around their leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the same way that Al Qaeda had created a personality around Bin Laden. So in response to ISISs very successful propaganda campaign, Iran decides to turn General Suleimani into the public face of the so-called resistance, and somebody that Shias could love and emulate and respect.

Enter Qassim Suleimani.

Here he is, celebrating gun in hand.

His pictures began appearing in public in battlegrounds, videos of him visiting soldiers unannounced.

Hes been up and down the country in the North, in the South, in the capital, checking up on the defenses, mobilizing the Shia militias, making sure that the Iraqi states are able to confront the threat from ISIS.

Videos of him reciting poetry, saying that he wants to become a martyr, the highest honor in Islam, and join his friends.

General Suleimani is increasingly being elevated and recognized as a key player on the world stage as Iranian influence in the region grows.

So by 2014, Mr. Suleimani is so well-known that his pictures are being printed on T-shirts, and his posters are sold in shops in Damascus and Beirut and Tehran.

Wow.

And that summer, his mother passed away, and the funeral of his mother in Tehran became the whos who event of every militant group in the Middle East. From the head of Hamas, to Islamic Jihad, to senior members of Hezbollah, all showed up to pay respects to the general that they saw as the patron of their cause and movement.

Hmm. So this is vivid evidence that he is very much the source of power in the Middle East that all these groups owe him. Theyre literally showing up at his door.

It was like watching a king hold court. And that was really the first public glimpse that we got of his status regionally, and what he means to these groups.

So at this point in 2014, how is Suleimani viewed by the U.S.? Im struck that all of these figures and groups that youre describing as turning out to pay respects to Suleimanis mother at this funeral, they are all pretty much mortal foes of the U.S.

So the U.S. was watching him, but not really taking action. And that was really in line with the previous administrations policies of engagement with Iran, and not escalating confrontation. That changed with the election of Donald Trump as president.

Right, and the withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal that President Trump ordered.

Yes. Since the withdrawal of the Iran nuclear deal by the U.S., Iran and the U.S. have been on a collision path, increasingly taking provocative actions and policies toward one another.

The past 48 hours saw a dangerous escalation in the feud between Washington and Tehran.

Culminating these past few weeks of violence in Iraq

An American contractor was killed on an Iraqi base.

The Department of Defense took offensive actions by launching F-15 Strike Eagles against five targets.

Protesters stormed the American Embassy, and the U.S. says Iran is responsible.

that ultimately led to the decision by President Trump to assassinate General Suleimani.

Right. Because in the minds of U.S. officials, Suleimani is very much responsible for those actions.

Exactly.

And Farnaz, how much do you think that the very public role that Suleimani occupied, and that Iran created for him and wanted for him how much do you think that that played a role in the Trump administrations decision to take him out, the understanding of what it was he represented to Iran?

I think the Trump administration may have not known what he represented to Iran.

Hmm.

I think that they miscalculated the level of admiration, perhaps, or nationalistic sentiment that weve seen pouring out of Iran. I think the White House probably thought that it was taking out a military commander, that it may not be very popular with ordinary Iranians, that theres been a lot of discontent in November against the government, and maybe Iranians would support this decision. For sure, we have voices in Iran, outside and inside Iran, among Iranians, who think that taking Mr. Suleimani out is justified, and they didnt like him, but what weve seen is that the U.S. has effectively turned General Suleimani into a martyr.

So this response that we saw at the funeral on Monday are you saying that the United States may not have expected this? Because it sounds like the U.S. understood one aspect of Suleimanis role in Iran, as the leader of this military strategy, but perhaps they didnt understand something thats equally as important, which is what he meant in the hearts of Iranians.

I think thats absolutely right. And I think, you know, we have to remember Iran has been an island of stability in a region ablaze with terrorism and car bombs and beheadings and kidnappings and women being sold by ISIS. And Iranians have, like, watched the whole region unravel around them refugees and displacement for the past 20 years. And by and large, they credit General Suleimani for that. They say that they trusted him and respected him for protecting Iran, for keeping Iran safe. And I think the outpouring of emotion we see is related to that sentiment.

Help me understand this idea, because the strategy that you have described over the past decade of violence and provocation that Suleimani oversaw and he came to personify, it doesnt feel protective. Why did it feel that way to Iranians in a way that the U.S. might not have understood?

You know, Michael, thats a really good question, and its one that Ive struggled to understand myself. This is a man who was responsible for a lot of violence and a lot of mayhem in the region, and a lot of activity that most Iranians may not agree with, that do not like. But because they felt that it gave them a buffer between their day-to-day lives inside Iran and the instability and violence happening all around the Middle East, they came to respect him and view him as a protector.

What does Suleimanis meaning to people in Iran what does that mean for the response we should expect from the government there?

The public momentum is building, and pressure is building, on Irans leadership to take action. At the funeral this morning, millions of people were out.

[CHANTING]

They were carrying the red flag of Shia Islam, which is a call to battle. They were chanting, No to negotiations, no to a deal, only war with the United States.

[CHANTING]

And the combination of the publics defiant mood and calls for revenge, and the rhetoric were seeing from Iranian officials, increases the possibility that in the next few days or next few weeks, Iran will respond and retaliate. How it will do it, what it will do, we dont know.

Farnaz, thank you very much.

Thank you so much for having me, Michael.

The Times reports that Irans supreme leader has told advisors that the retaliation against the United States for General Suleimanis death should be carried out openly by Irans military, not through proxies or militias. Such a direct reprisal would be a major departure from Iranian tradition, and highlights the desire by the supreme leader to honor Suleimanis status and satisfy the mourners who have flooded the streets of Tehran.

Well be right back.

Heres what else you need to know today. In a surprise statement on Monday, former National Security Adviser John Bolton, said he is willing to testify at President Trumps impeachment trial if he is subpoenaed by the Senate. The announcement puts new pressure on Senate Republicans to call witnesses at the trial, something they have so far resisted doing. Bolton was blocked by the White House from testifying before House impeachment investigators, but is considered a vital witness in the case, because he has direct knowledge of Trumps actions and conversations regarding Ukraine. And in Los Angeles on Monday, prosecutors charged Harvey Weinstein with sex crimes just hours after prosecutors in New York began a trial against Weinstein on similar charges. The allegations in Los Angeles are from two women who allege that Weinstein sexually assaulted them in hotel rooms in 2013. The latest charges mean that even if Weinstein is acquitted in New York, he will face a second trial in California.

Thats it for The Daily. Im Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.

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For Trump, the Burden May Be Proving This Is Not the Moment His Critics Predicted - The New York Times

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