Wendy R. Sherman, Opinion columnist Published 4:00 a.m. ET Jan. 2, 2020 | Updated 12:54 p.m. ET Jan. 2, 2020
Trump's policies have been devastating to US interests. He should have stayed in the Iran nuclear deal and made full use of sanctions and diplomacy.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo startedhaving a tough 2020only one day into the new year. Hewas forced to postpone his trip to Kyiv, Ukraine, this week to attend to the new crisis in Iraq.As fraught as Pompeos visit to Kyiv was going to be, in the shadow of the impeachment battle, Iraq trumped Kyiv after theNew Years Eve attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad.
It isPresident Donald Trumps failed policy toward Iran that has brought us to this combustible moment.
Iraq is a tough country under any circumstances, made more so after the 2003 U.S. invasion that upended the Middle East and cost so much in U.S. lives and treasure. But Iraq also created strange bedfellows. The U.S. troops worked alongside Iraqi and Iranian militia to destroy a common enemy, the Islamic State terrorismgroup. And even as Washingtonwas confronting Iran over its nuclear program and malign behavior elsewhere, we maintained an uneasy coexistence in Iraq, where Tehran holds considerable sway.
That uneasy balance was destroyed when Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as the Iran nuclear deal. Like other critics of the agreement, Trump believed it should have resolved all of Americas issues with Iran. Trump believed we were giving Tehran benefits without a requisite return. He thought a "maximum pressure"campaign would ultimately bring Iran to its knees, or incite a popular uprising against its theocratic regime.
Like much of Trumps national security and foreign policy, his Iran approach is tactical and not strategic.The results have been devastating to U.S. interests. Irans most extreme hard-liners, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Quds force, whichnever wanted the nuclear deal, have gained more power, arguing that the United States couldnt be trusted to honor any agreement.
Irans nefarious activities in the region haveincreased, becauseterror is not an expensive undertakingand so islargely immune from economic sanctions.Indeed, the IRGC has happily returned to controlling the lucrative black market under Trumps sanctions. AndIran, after complying with the deal for nearly three years, now confronted with "maximum pressure" and no diplomatic track, has begun to unwind its compliance.
Learning to manage conflict: As Iraq violence flares, how do we stop wars from happening in the 2020s?
In Iraq, Iranian-backed militia, led by Kataeb Hezbollah, have worked to increase their power as the Iraq central government has nearly collapsed under the weight of months of popular protests against government corruption. A rocket attack by the Kataeb Hezbollah militia last Fridaykilled an American contractor and injured many. The Trump administration retaliated with airstrikestwo days later,leading to the New Year's Eveattack on our embassy.
Protesters outside the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad, Iraq, on Jan. 1, 2020.(Photo: Defense Visual Information Distribution Service/epa-EFE)
Most would agree that the United States had to respond in some way to the death of an American, but whether the airstrike was the right and proportionate measure is debatable.
Regardless, if the Trump administration really understood the dynamics of Iraq, it might have anticipated a move like the attack on the U.S. Embassy. Administration officialsmight have worked more closely with the Iraq government to think through the best way forward.Instead, in essence, Trump walked into Irans trap.
For many Americans, the Baghdad militia chants of "Death to America"echoed the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979, raising the specter of another hostage crisis.
The immediate emergency at our embassy in Baghdad has subsided. Kataeb Hezbollah has withdrawn its militia from outside the compound, declaring that they have delivered the necessary message to America. They want the 5,000 U.S.troops out of Iraq.
Nonetheless, perhaps even Pompeo understands that a longer-term challenge remains, and thus his change of travel plans.
Trump has repeatedly said he wants to withdraw American troops from just about everywhere. Buta withdrawal from Iraq at this moment only serves Irans desire to exert greater control over Iraq. To much of the world, itwould signal U.S. disengagement and weakness not strength.
Even some of the harshest critics of the Iran nuclear deal now understand that the perfect is, indeed, the enemy of the good; that in volatile international situations, solid, incremental progress trumps chaos. The Iran nuclear deal was meant to prevent Tehran from getting a nuclear weapon. Such a capability would project even greater Iranian power in the Middle East and deter the ability of Washington and its allies to build a lasting peace in the region.
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Concerted action to curtail Irans malign behavior, human rights abuses, unlawful detention of Americansand state sponsorship of terrorism remains very necessary.Had Trump stayed in the Iran deal and not only used the remaining sanctions in the U.S.toolbox but also built a coalition of diplomatic partners to challenge Iran to truly join the community of nations, we would be in a very different place today.
Three years into his presidency, Donald Trump owns the events and outcomes in Iraq and Iran, as he does in North Korea, Afghanistan, Venezuela, the Middle East, Russia, China and Hong Kong. Having diminished our State Department, intelligence agencies and military,the very institutions that could have helped him construct an effective national security and foreign policy, he is now on his own.
The presidentmay like it that way, but a change in his secretary of States travel planswont be enough to save the day, let alone the decade.
Wendy R. Sherman, a professor and the director of the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard Kennedy School, was undersecretary of State for political affairs from 2011-15 and led U.S. negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal. She is a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors and the author of Not fortheFaint of Heart: Lessons in Courage, Power and Persistence."Follow her on Twitter:@WendyRSherman
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Attack on US Embassy in Iraq shows Trump is failing. He walked into Iran's trap. - USA TODAY
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