As momentous as Russias invasion of Ukraine is, the most strategically important event in recent weeks was the global economic war between Russia and the U.S. and its allies. Russia, however, has been preparing to confront the West and challenge the Western socio-economic model for a long time.

Russias strategic interests in Ukraine are well-known. The geography and history of Russia compel its leaders to create and preserve a buffer between Moscow and the major powers in Western Europe, and to ensure access to the Black Sea. Ukraine is crucial to both goals. But beyond Ukraine, the Kremlin perceives the eastward expansion of Western influence, including into Russia, to be a modern invasion by stealth that threatens the Russian regime.

It is not Western organizations such as NATO and the European Union that challenge the Kremlin, but the socio-economic model that enabled the West to win the Cold War and that enticed Eastern Europeans to want to join the West. When he became president of Russia in 2000, in the wake of the Soviet Unions collapse and the economic crisis of the 1990s, Vladimir Putin inherited a broken country. Many Russians contemplated joining the European Union, hoping that alignment with the West would bring a better life.

The priority for the Russian establishment was to stabilize and rebuild the country. Putin just wanted to survive politically. Following the example of past successful Russian leaders, he centralized power. Knowing he needed stability and growth to slow the rate of emigration and address Russias poor demographics, Putin sought to make Europe economically dependent on Moscow. Looking back at history and the current power balance, he identified Germany as the lynchpin of his strategy of dependence.

Russian ties to Germany were key to establishing ties to the European Union more broadly, but this was only the beginning of Russias strategy in Europe.

Russian ties to Germany were key to establishing ties to the European Union more broadly, but this was only the beginning of Russias strategy in Europe. Russia opened up its economy to Western investment, established links throughout the Continent and tried to understand the inner workings of EU bureaucracy. It established close business ties with Italy, France and later Hungary, and built a political network that would help expand its influence in Europe. For Moscow, learning about European vulnerabilities was just as important as building up its economy and growing Russia into a stable economic power.

The Kremlin also campaigned to join the World Trade Organization to establish deeper relationships with the worlds biggest economic players. In the process, it benefited from foreign investments in Russia and learned how the global economy works, building partnerships with not just Western economies but also other economic powers. The only problem was that China, its major ally against the West, was not seeing the accelerated growth it hoped for and was still very much dependent on the U.S. market, giving Beijing limited ability to counter U.S. interests in the world and forcing Russia to keep its focus on Europe.

Average Russians saw improvements in their standard of living under Putin. In major Russian cities, life was similar to that in the West. However, when it became a major player in the energy market, Russia also increased its exposure to global economic cycles. The European economic crisis of the 2010s sent shivers through Moscow. Russias economy remained fragile overall, and the gap between urban and rural areas remained dangerously high, potentially threatening Putins control.

At the same time, the West offered an attractive model to rival Russias. It wasnt so much the growing Western influence in Russias buffer zone that bothered the Kremlin, but the fact that ordinary Russians might look at Eastern Europe and see a better model for political organization and economic growth.

Then the pandemic hit. The Russian president apparently feared that the economic insecurity wrought by COVID-19 could threaten his countrys economic security and stability. As the worst socio-economic effects of the pandemic faded, action against the West became urgent. From the Kremlins point of view, this was a unique moment. The U.S. has been trying to reduce its presence in Europe and instead focus on the Indo-Pacific and domestic problems. In other words, from the Kremlins point of view, the trans-Atlantic alliance and the European Union appear weak. Most important, Russias leaders believe they have gained sufficient knowledge of the way the West works and can fight it effectively.

Russia has been preparing to confront the West since at least the early 2000s. Besides stockpiling foreign reserves, Moscow constructed trade blocs and deepened relations with projects like the Eurasian Economic Union. In Europe, it enticed Germany to become dependent on Russian natural gas, which as is clear today made it extremely difficult for Europe to cut off Russian energy imports. Shifting from gas would require Europe to build new infrastructure a costly, time-consuming process.

The close German-Russian partnership also benefited the Kremlins Europe strategy in other ways. To give a practical example, the EU had plans to make the Danube River fully navigable through the establishment of additional canals, increasing Central Europes connection with the Black Sea. This would have given Europe more leverage against Russia at the moment, when the war in Ukraine has forced the rerouting of commercial flows from the Black Sea to much more expensive land routes. Instead, positive relations with Moscow made the project seem unnecessary, and it faded away.

It is no coincidence that after 2012, the first full year that Nord Stream 1 was operational, Europe became much more reluctant to adopt policies that could be seen as anti-Russian.

It is no coincidence that after 2012, the first full year that Nord Stream 1 was operational, Europe became much more reluctant to adopt policies that could be seen as anti-Russian. There was simply no interest in Germany to carry them out. It is also no coincidence that relations between the U.S. and Germany have cooled over that time. The U.S. needed Germany to lead Europe, or at least maintain neutrality, to prevent Russia from expanding its influence in Europe as the U.S. drew back. The fact that Russia joined the World Trade Organization in 2012 gave it even more leverage in the world economy.

It is also worth noting that the Kremlin used personal relationships to shore up its influence. Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder was tapped to lead Nord Stream 1. Nord Stream AG also hired former Finnish Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen as a consultant to speed up the permit process in Finland. Former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi served on the board of Delimobil, a Russian car-sharing service. Former Finnish Prime Minister Esko Aho was on the board of Russias largest bank, Sberbank. Former Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern resigned from the board of Russias state-owned railway company in the early days of the war in Ukraine, while another ex-chancellor, Wolfgang Schussel, remained on the board of Russias Lukoil.

This is just a short list of top politicians, all of whom had at least some influence over their countrys foreign policy discussions. They have certainly been useful to Russian economic growth and the advance of Russias economic strategy in Europe.

Working closely with Europeans for the past two decades has enabled Russia to learn what is important for the stability of their countries. It has also helped the Kremlin better understand their political agendas and support causes that work to its advantage. For example, Russia enthusiastically supported many green policies, like Germanys decision to give up nuclear power which translated into greater reliance on Russian gas. And Russia has openly supported populist parties throughout Europe and effectively used information warfare, all in an attempt to destabilize and ultimately divide Europe.

Globally, Russia has maintained close relations with traditional enemies and competitors of the West. Joining the WTO gave it a stronger position on the global stage, which is used to advance the influence and interests of emerging global players, including the BRICS countries, which also include Brazil, India, China and South Africa. Though the results were modest, Russia promoted the group as an alternative to the West and continued to focus on building ties to China and India, establishing links that it hoped would withstand in a potential confrontation with the West, which were seeing play out today.

To counter the current sanctions, it has looked to China for help. The Eurasian Economic Union gives it proxies for continuing to do business with the world. At the same time, Russias presence in the Middle East and parts of Africa helps it keep the price of oil high high enough that it can keep paying its bills. Influence in the Middle East and the Sahel, two highly unstable but resource-rich areas, also gives Russia more leverage over the world economy.

Russian strategy certainly has its weaknesses, but Russia has options in countering the West.

In building its network, Russia has tried to focus on economics and enhancing weaknesses in the global network. It expanded its influence abroad, making sure the dependencies it was encouraging were strong enough to give it leverage but lose enough to allow its withdrawal when necessary. Russian strategy certainly has its weaknesses, but Russia has options in countering the West during the current global economic war. Supporting EU fragmentation through its economic ties in Europe and using the knowledge of European politics that its gained over the years are likely the most important elements of its strategy. The moment European citizens feel the repercussion of Western sanctions is when the bloc will become more fragile, which will allow Russia to exploit the EUs weaknesses.

The world is witnessing its first economic world war of the modern era. The rules are undefined, and the global economy is complex, meaning collateral damage is unavoidable and frequently unpredictable. Slowly, we are becoming aware of the repercussions the sanctions on Russia are having on the global economy. Less clear are the instruments that Russia can employ against the West. How this will change the world is a mystery. All we can do is look back at what Russia has prepared for and guess what could come next. This is only the beginning.

Antonia Colibasanuis chief operating officer of Geopolitical Futures.

More: This global-conflict expert sees a bleak end for the Ukraine war and for Putin

Also read: American foreign policy needs radical surgery

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Putin has launched the first economic world war, and the EU and the West are his targets - MarketWatch

There has been a staggering increase in LGBTQ+ hate crimes over the past five years, which, in England and Wales, have risen year on year. Homophobic hate crimes recorded by the police have tripled since 2014/2015, while transphobic hate crimes have quadrupled in the same period. Because LGBTQ+ people are often reluctant to report these crimes, the real figures are likely to be even higher. This increase cant be attributed to any single factor. Hate crimes tend to happen more during times of socio-economic turbulence; when people are angry, minorities get scapegoated, which is why weve also seen an attendant increase in crimes linked to race and disability.

Hate crimes can function as a kind of retaliatory violence against social progress, and they are often directly downstream from government policy. Within the same timeframe, right-wing authoritarianism has become resurgent in Britain, which is a worldview that goes hand in hand with discrimination. But if were talking about the rise in anti-LGBTQ+ violence specifically, the anti-trans or gender-critical movement surely deserves a portion of the blame. It stands to reason that if you flood the media including online platforms with vitriolic attacks on a given minority group, this is going to make them more vulnerable. Moreover, the specific way that the anti-trans movement demonises gender variation is something which poses harm to all LGBTQ+ people which makes it all the more frustrating that a small contingent of cis gay men and lesbians are continuing to propagate it. What these people fail to understand is that, sometimes, transphobia and homophobia really arent all that different.

Its true that gay people do frequently get abused in the street for expressing intimacy with their partners in public, and that discrimination based on sexuality alone is still a big problem. But in public, we are less at risk because of who we are, innately, and who we are attracted to, and more because of how we act and what we look like both of which relate to gender. If someone attacks you because you look gay, that has very little to do with who you sleep with. Its entirely possible to be the victim of a hate crime while youre walking around and minding your own business and this has far more to do with gender expression than sexuality (as it relates to either sexual or romantic behaviour). Its a popular line that the two concepts are entirely distinct, but in reality they collapse together all the time.

I recently read the playwright Travis Alabanzas forthcoming nonfiction book, None of the Above: Reflections on Life Beyond the Binary (published by Canongate this August). In it, Alabanza depicts how ruthlessly gender nonconformity is policed in public; the way that harassment forms a near-constant backdrop for gender-nonconforming people, and how suffocating this can be to live through on a daily basis. Theres actually not much of a clear line between gender and sexuality, Alabanza tells Dazed. This is why we often misunderstand whats happening with transphobic and homophobic violence. With the latter, we place it as a form of discrimination based on sexuality, which can sometimes be the case. But I think the majority of the time whats happening is a punishment based on gender. What it stems from, in my opinion, is a correction back to the gender binary: when people see others being free from the expectations which they believe are a contract, violence starts to happen.

Because of this, homophobia and transphobia cant always be delineated as two distinct forms of bigotry. To offer an obvious example, and one which is true for lots of gay men: I wasnt out in my early years of high school, nor was I going around getting off with guys or wearing T-shirts emblazoned with the rainbow flag. In terms of behaviour that could be classed as gay, I wasnt doing much of anything, really, other than acting a little bit fruity but this was still enough to get bullied. Later in life, just about every instance of homophobic abuse Ive experienced has been occasioned by simply vibing in a way that was read as feminine, rather than doing anything explicitly gay, such as engaging in public affection with someone of the same gender (although needless to say, this does also inspire violence.) Because a significant proportion of homophobia is really about gender expression, its impossible to whip up fury against the trans community without this eventually backfiring on cis gay people. You only need to look at the situation now unfolding in the US, where LGBTQ+ people of all stripes are being smeared en masse as groomers, degenerates and perverts, to realise that this rhetoric cant be targeted with precision at one subset of the community.

A society where we are policing each others gender, which is fundamentally what they want to enact, leads to violence for all of us Travis Alabanza

To be clear, this is not the only basis on which we should fight transphobia the fact that it harms trans people, and that it is so evidently cruel, is reason enough. Leaning too hard into the watch out gay men, theyll be coming for us next! framework risks being a little self-involved; on social media, it can sometimes feel as though were a little too keen to position ourselves as the protagonists of a dramatic moment in history which is still primarily impacting other people. We should extend solidarity because its our natural human inclination and we should fight for that, and not for something as boring as at some point this could affect me, says Alabanza.

But at the same time, there is merit to the idea that its in the self-interest of cis gay people, and indeed everyone, to support trans liberation. In a sense, theyre already coming for you, says Alabanza. The gender binary is already harming us and the anti-trans movement is creating further harm. A society where we are policing each others gender, which is fundamentally what they want to enact, leads to violence for all of us. As has been made clear time and time again, you dont need to be trans to be the victim of transphobia. The scores of butch cis women whove been challenged in public bathrooms over the last few years can attest to that.

Maybe the gay people pushing anti-trans narratives are aware of this, and simply dont care because they think it will never affect them personally. But gender nonconformity can be extremely subtle and still draw negative attention. If youre a man, you dont need to be sashaying down the road in a fabulous, sequinned pantsuit to be perceived as feminine: I often hear about masculine-presenting guys being subject to homophobic abuse in public simply because something about the way they moved or spoke rubbed someone up the wrong way.

A lot of gay people with anti-trans views seem anxious that being lumped together with a more marginalised group will expose them to greater risk. But its impossible to bargain your way out of the fact that significant segments of the straight world still consider you a degenerate. Handing over trans people on a sacrificial platter isnt going to appease them for long. The people who would attack you in the street are likely to be significantly less invested in the gay-trans distinction than you are. If youre a cis gay person concerned with your own safety, the wiser strategy would be standing against the cruel ideologies which oppress all LGBTQ+ people, and endanger even the most conservative of gay men. As Alabanza says, the punitive enforcement of the gender binary is something which impoverishes us all.

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Homophobia and transphobia have more in common than you think - Dazed

In this bi-weekly series reviewing classic science fiction and fantasy books, Alan Brown looks at the front lines and frontiers of the field; books about soldiers and spacers, scientists and engineers, explorers and adventurers. Stories full of what Shakespeare used to refer to as alarums and excursions: battles, chases, clashes, and the stuff of excitement.

One of the books Id always intended to read, but only recently got around to, is the influential satire The Space Merchants, published in 1953. If you can imagine a dystopian future Earth run by descendants of the characters from Mad Men, you wont be far from the setting the book portrays. And while the novel contains large dollops of social satire, its woven into a narrative that moves at a rapid clip, featuring quite a bit of action and adventuremore than one might expect from a story about a professional copywriter.

As Ive mentioned before in this column (and because Im old, will no doubt mention again), I grew up a huge fan of Analog magazine, which to my young eyes was full of interesting science, simple, enjoyable characters, and straightforward plots. I looked forward to it arriving every month, and sometimes argued with my father over who would get to read it first. He also subscribed to Galaxy, which I didnt read as muchwhich is a shame, because in the years I was first learning to read for fun, the magazine was edited by Frederik Pohl, who was winning various awards for his efforts. Galaxy stories, though, were a little more complex and oriented more toward an adult reader than Analog stories.

Over the years, Ive developed a deeper appreciation for Pohl and the type of stories he wrote or selected as an editor. While I wasnt ready for them as a teenager, I now find they have a depth and complexity often lacking in Analog. In the end, though, Im glad I waited to read The Space Merchants, because there are a number of elements to the story that would have gone right over my head in my youth. Moreover, it doesnt hurt to have watched Mad Men before you read the book, because the story is so deeply rooted in the advertising business of the era portrayed in the TV show. I was also surprised, when researching this article, that advertising has been addressed often enough in science fiction tales to rate its own entry in the Encyclopedia of Science Fiction.

About the Authors

Frederik Pohl (1919-2013) was an influential member of the science fiction and fantasy community who, over his long and fruitful career, was involved in the field in a wide range of roles, including fan, writer, magazine editor, book editor, and agent. I have discussed Pohls work twice before in this column, reviewing Gateway and The Starchild Trilogy, and you can find more biographical information in those reviews. At one point after World War II, Pohl took a job as an advertising copywriter, in part as research for The Space Merchants. The book was rejected by many publishers before Ian Ballantine bought it to publish simultaneously in hardback, and also in his new paperback book line. It garnered acclaim from within the science fiction community and more mainstream literary critics and reviewers, and went on to sell very successfully. Like many authors whose careers started in the early 20th century, you can find a number of Pohls early works on Project Gutenberg.

Cyril Kornbluth (1923-1958) is an American science fiction author whose work I have not yet examined in this column. He wrote under a variety of pen names, as well as adding an invented middle initial to his own name, publishing as Cyril M. Kornbluth. He was a member of the Futurians, the influential New York science fiction fan club, and it was there he met his future collaborators Frederik Pohl and Judith Merril. He began writing as a fan at fifteen, and his first professional publication came when he was only seventeen. He served in the Army in World War II, and earned a Bronze Star in the Battle of the Bulge. Kornbluth had a knack for writing quirky, funny, and thought-provoking stories, and one of his short stories, The Little Black Bag, was adapted for television by Rod Sterling. Most of his longer works were written as collaborations, some with Frederik Pohl, and some with Judith Merril, under the pen name Cyril Judd. His solo novels include the compellingly realistic World War III novel Not This August. Kornbluths successful writing career was cut tragically short when he died of a heart attack at 34. You can find several of his stories and novels on Project Gutenberg.

If This Goes On

One of the most difficult things to do in science fiction is to predict the futureespecially the near future. Jumping to the far future, thousands of years away, into a world dramatically different than our own, is in some ways easier than imagining what changes might be just around the corner.

In the mid-20th century, when Pohl and Kornbluth were writing The Space Merchants, scientists were predicting that an ever-increasing population on Earth would begin to outstrip food production, possibly by the end of the twentieth century. They warned that fossil fuels and other resources could soon be exhausted, and pollution could cause ecological collapse. At the same time, freed from the brutal conflict of World War II, the U.S. was engaging in an orgy of consumerism, and there was every reason to expect that to continue. While they are exaggerated for satirical impact, you can see these themes woven into The Space Merchants.

A satirist has an even more difficult task than those who are trying to predict the most probable future. The world they create must serve the points they are trying to make; at the same time, if the future they create is not at least somewhat plausible, they are creating a farce, not a satire. Pohl and Kornbluth depict a world where rampant consumerism, without any consideration for consequences, is bringing the planet to its knees. While the elite of this society do not suffer much, the common people teeter on the edge of scarcity while being pressed ever harder to consume and produce. The misogyny of the mid-20th century has gotten even more dire, and in one case, a woman is forced to become a company-employed prostitute, serving the firms executives after her boss leaves. Only addictive drugs and a constant barrage of advertising keep the common people in line. The water is not fit to drink and the air cannot be breathed. Any pretense of democracy had given way to the power of the almighty dollar, and corporations rule (U.S. senators, for example, represent corporations rather than states). The only glimmer of hope is the promise of building a new home for humanity on Venus. In the face of the more alarming trends and anxieties of the post-war era, The Space Merchants served as one of many warnings our civilization needed to plot a different course.

And in many ways, since the book was written, humanity has taken a different course. Population growth has moderated, and new innovations have caused farming yields to increase significantly. New energy sources have been found. Pollution laws have led to significant improvements in air and water quality in many areas. At the same time, rampant consumerism is a continuing problem, and the communications explosion facilitated by the internet and cell phones has allowed advertising to infiltrate even further into peoples lives. Our politics are troubled, and corporations are more influential than ever in the political sphere. And while were not much closer to establishing habitats on other planets, nuclear weapons and climate change remain two potent threats among many in Earths future.

Satire remains an important and effective form of storytelling, and always will. A skillful satirist can illuminate dangers in a way other forms of literature cannot, andwhile entertaining and amusing uspoint us toward a better course.

The Space Merchants

Mitch Courtenay lives a life of privilege, living about as well as anyone in the United States of the future. He deals with shortages of fresh water, eats reconstituted meat substitutes, and wears an air filter when stepping out on the streets, but hey, who doesnt have to deal with those things? His society is one where advertising agencies and corporations rule the world, and his advertising agency, Fowler Schocken, is one of the biggest and best. He doesnt concern himself much with organized religions, largely because their accounts are handled by a competing agency. The only nagging flaw in his life is his relationship with his wife, Kathy. She is quite a prize, a respected physician. They are on a short-term marriage contract he wants to make permanent. But she remarks on his shallowness and vanitythings he doesnt see in himselfand continues to keep him at arms length.

Besides the whole Earths running out of resources and being poisoned thing, the only defect Mitch sees in this capitalist utopia is a group called the Consies. The first few mentions of the group in the novel are in relation to terrorist activities, although we are eventually told the organization is the World Conservationist Association, or WCA. We learn that its a group made up of many thoughtful and dedicated people who believe if nothing changes, humanity will engineer its own demise.

Mitchs life changes forever when he arrives at work one morning to find he has been assigned to lead one of the biggest projects in the firms history, organizing the colonization of Venus, and attracting colonists to join the effort. His first task is to meet with Jack OShea, the first man on Venus, who was picked for the first mission because of his diminutive size, the rocket not being powerful enough to carry an average-sized person along with enough food and life support. At the airport, Mitch is almost killed by falling cargo, which he initially thinks is an accident. But then someone takes a shot at him from a helicopter, and he begins to suspect that one of the firms competitors is involved (in this future, legally sanctioned violence is sometimes an inevitable part of doing business). He is excited that his wife is pleased about his promotion, but the excitement is dampened by jealousy when she asks him to introduce her to Jack OShea. And then one of his subordinates, Runstead, is found to be either incompetent or involved in deliberately sabotaging the Venus project. Mitch tracks Runstead to a resort in Antarctica, and is attacked and knocked unconscious.

When Mitch awakens, he finds that his life has changed once againhe has suffered a major reversal of fortune, one which allows us to see his future society from the bottom of the socio-economic ladder. His identity tattoo has been altered, and his new identity is William Groby, a laborer indentured to a company in Costa Rica, Chlorella Proteins. His first job is harvesting algae out of giant chemical tanks, and every day he finds himself further indebted to the firm. He tries to befriend people who might be able to help him, and is recruited to join a cell of the infamous Consies. The cell meets in a secret room hidden under a giant mass of engineered chicken flesh, from which tissue is constantly removed and packaged for salehorrifyingly, the flesh reacts to stimulus and feels pain. Mitch decides to play along to escape his situation, and eventually succeeds. He is transferred to a new job in New York, which puts him within spitting distance of his old life. He is kidnapped by a competing advertising agency whose staff tortures him for information. But he escapes, and while he eventually finds his way back to Fowler Schocken and his old job, he realizes he is now a different person. There are plenty of twists and turns in the final pages, but Mitch is finally able to find as close to a happy ending as is possible in his future dystopia.

Final Thoughts

When I was young, I wasnt particularly attracted to this book because the topic of advertising held little interest to me, and the premise sounded a good bit different from the action and adventure stories I liked best. That turns out to be my loss, because I missed out on a book full of humor, and quite a bit of adventure as well (and for those who have concerns over the book being dated, Pohl put out an updated edition in 2011). The Space Merchants also turns out to be a book that makes the reader think, blending a good deal of insightful social commentary into a compelling tale. Id recommend this novel to anyone who wants a story that will challenge them while it entertains them.

And now its my turn to listen to you: If youve read The Space Merchants, Id like to hear your thoughts. And if you can offer suggestions for any other great science fiction satires, Id like to hear about them as well.

Alan Brown has been a science fiction fan for over five decades, especially fiction that deals with science, military matters, exploration and adventure.

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Consumerism Run Amok: The Space Merchants by Frederik Pohl and Cyril M. Kornbluth - tor.com

Editorsnote: In November,The National Interestorganized a symposium on the confluence of demographics, migration, and climate change. We asked a variety of scholars the following question: Canmigrationbe a solution to the various demographic challenges facing many nations, or is it a challenge in its own right? How should states adapt to and/or mitigate the effects of changing demographics and influxes of migrants?The following article is one of their responses:

In many ways, Canada seems perfectly positioned to take advantage of climate change. The country sits on a vast wealth of natural resources with an abundant supply of freshwater, oil, and natural gas. Its political system is, for the moment, relatively stable. And as the planet warms, Canadas traditionally unfarmable northern regions could turn into the worlds breadbasket. But for all its advantages, Canada is desperately lacking in one vital resource: people.

Indeed, despite being the worlds second-largest country, Canada has a relatively modest 38 million citizens, a mere one-ninth of the United States population. More importantly, the national fertility rate has long been in steady decline, with the number of Canadian births reaching a fifteen-year low in 2020. This puts the country in a precarious position: while most populations need a total fertility level of a little over two children per woman to survive, Canada sits at just 1.47, representing one of the lowest birth rates in the West. Were this trend to continue, the countrys population could start shrinking within the next two decades.

Theres good reason to see this as a serious national security concern. Most crucially, Canadas dropping fertility rates will bring about a massive shift in the countrys age demographics, with the percentage of Canadians aged sixty-five and older projected to increase from 17.2 in 2018 to over 20 in 2030. The resulting impact on the workforce will be dramatic. Today, the countrys ratio of workers to pensioners is three to one. Over the next fifteen years, that number will fall to two. And indeed, while the cultural implications of this sort of demographic change can be complicated, the economics are rather simple: as Canada ages, its productivity will decline, labor costs will skyrocket, and the countrys robust social programs will crumble under the weight of its retiring population.

Degrowth, then, would represent a catastrophic opportunity loss for a country primed to benefit from global warming. In one famous study, Stanford professor Marshall Burke estimated that if Canada were to take complete advantage of its newfound agricultural opportunities, it could see a fivefold increase in its gross domestic product over the next several decades. But thats a huge if. Canada will need a massive amount of labor to exploit its 4.2 million square kilometers of new agricultural frontier, and as it stands, its population is not growing nearly fast enough to meet the regions growing demand.

So now, with the writing on the wall for its future growth, Canada has started looking abroad. The result has been a dramatic increase in Canadas immigration targets: just last year, Immigration Minister Marco Mendicino announced that the country would be aiming to add an additional 500,000 permanent residents in 2021, an increase of more than 50,000 from 2020.

And yet many still think this doesnt go far enough. One particularly influential group of business leaders and academics, known as the Century Initiative, wants Canada to nearly triple its population by 2100. Growing our population to 100 million by 2100 would reduce the burden on government revenues to fund health care, old age security, and other services, the Initiative's site reads. The group states that 100 million is not just a number. Its a vision for the Canada we want to build for future generations.

Such an approach would have profound socio-cultural implications. To be sure, a 100 million person Canada would look markedly different from how it looks today, raising the question of whether or not Canadians are ready for such a sudden shake-up of the national demographic.

But its a risk that Canada seems prepared to take, and theyre not alone. To the east, Russia and the Scandinavian countriesboth thought to be potential climate winnershave cited underpopulation and declining birth rates as major obstacles to their national growth. Russia, in particularnever known for its subtletyhas discussed flying in hundreds of thousands of Indian workers to its now-arable Far East region. Many in Sweden, too, have pushed for increased immigration rates as the population ages.

Each approach will surely have unique strengths and weaknesses that will lead to different results depending on each countrys specific circumstances. For a nation like Russia, for example, the presence of China to the south means that it must be careful when deciding which foreign nationals (and how many) it wants to allow in. Canada, on the other hand, has the advantage of an immigration system that prioritizes immigrants with perceived value, allowing the country to admit those who best fit its evolving socio-economic needs.

Immigration, then, will have a key role to play in the West as declining birth rates and climate change transform the world order. Indeed, with the right policies, countries like Canada and Russia could see their prospects soar. But with the wrong policies, their economies could be destined to collapse.

Thomas Hochman (@thomashochman) is a Fellow at Citizens Climate Lobby. His work has been featured in The National Interest, The Washington Examiner, and a number of other outlets.

Image: Reuters.

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Climate Change Is Creating a Northern Labor Crisis - The National Interest

The writer heads the Sustainable Development Policy Institute.

We have not seen this level of near-universal poverty in any country in recent history, said Ms Kanni Wignaraja, assistant secretary of the United Nations Development Programme, last month, while referring to the deteriorating economic situation of Afghanistan. The UN estimates that the percentage of the Afghan population living below less than $1.90 when the Taliban took over will increase from 50 percent to 97 percent by next summer.

The above shocking numbers were partly due to changing weather patterns, prolonged periods of drought accompanied by above-average temperatures. Food insecurity further worsened after the change in regime in Kabul. According to the World Food Programs (WFP) estimates released in the beginning of this month, three million Afghans were at the brink of famine. Likewise, an equal number of children are malnourished. Another 23 million, in a country of 38 million, faced acute hunger. Out of those, 8.7 million were only one step behind famine: in WFP language, in a state of emergency. Children and women in Afghanistan are the worst affected by this situation. There are four million internally displaced persons in Afghanistan; of them, 80 percent are women and children.

In its recent story, The Economist has described the worsening situation in Afghanistan in these words, Locals report cases of entire families starving to death in their homes. Hospital wards are taking in emaciated children, including 11-year-olds who weigh just 13kg. Poor Afghans are selling their remaining possessions for food. Some are selling their daughters. The misery is as bad in the cities as it is in the countryside. As the winter sets in, the agony will only deepen.

A closer analysis reveals that Western Coalition Forces were merely interested in maintaining a status quo in war-torn Afghanistan during the last two decades. They did nothing to stabilise Afghanistan as a country.

Under twenty years of coalition-supported rule, the Afghan economy did not prove to be much different from its armed forces. Both collapsed without showing any sign of resistance. While a strategic affairs expert can tell you about the armed forces, let me describe why the Afghan economy collapsed after the Talibans victory.

It would not be wrong to say that successive governments in Afghanistan were dependent on foreign aid. Till August 2021 (before the Taliban interim government), Afghanistan used to receive $8.5 billion per annum as foreign aid. That external financing was equal to 45 percent of its GDP, and financed 75 percent of the government budget, including almost all health, education and security spending.

Almost 80 percent of its electricity needs are met through imports from neighbouring countries (from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Iran). Other essential imports include wheat (from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan), fuel (from Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan), and medicines (from India, Pakistan, and Iran). Since America has frozen Afghan assets worth $9 billion, it is unable to pay for its imports.

The Afghan government does not print its local currency and hence is facing a shortage of it. Half a million soldiers and police personnel have lost their jobs, and civil servants, including 220,000 teachers, have gone unpaid for months. Only last week, the Taliban government made partial payments to select civil servants through the meagre revenue collected during the three months of their rule.

The US lists the Taliban as specially designated global terrorists (SDGT) so routing payments through US dollar payment system is fraught with criminal liability. As per the UN Security Councils Resolution 1988 (mandatory implementation by all countries), the Afghan Taliban as an entity are not sanctioned. However, some cabinet members are listed under UNSC 1988. Hence dealing with the Taliban may invoke international sanctions. The US Office for Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has frozen the assets of the Afghan government. And the Taliban government is yet to be recognised by any country in the world.

Due to the sanctions, Afghanistans commercial banks face difficulties in transactions with correspondent banks and interbank placements. They are at risk of insolvency. Strict withdrawal limits have been imposed on depositors local currency/foreign currency accounts. This has undermined payments for general imports, leading to a shortage of critical imports such as food, fuel and electricity.

The OFAC, while upholding and enforcing US sanctions against the Taliban, the Haqqani Network, and other sanctioned entities, has issued General License (GL) 14 and GL15. Through GL14, the US Treasury will continue to work with financial institutions, international organisations, and the NGO community to ease the flow of critical resources, like agricultural goods, medicine, and other essential supplies, to people in need.

Through GL15, certain transactions related to exporting or re-exporting agricultural commodities, medicine, and medical devices are authorised.

Mexico, Ireland and Norway (UNSC members) and international NGOs support exceptions of humanitarian assistance as part of the UN sanction regime. Likewise, Switzerland, Chad and the Philippines (and a few others) have enacted national legislation to protect humanitarian assistance from material support offences. Despite the backing of the above-mentioned countries, and OFACs GL 14 & 15, routing US dollars funds transfer to Afghanistan is exceedingly complicated.

In September 2021, donors pledged $1 billion in response to the UNs flash appeal for $600 million. However, only one-third of those pledges could materialise. The European Union promised $1.15 billion in October. Yet 300 million euros of that had already been committed, and much of the rest will be provided to Afghanistans neighbours so they may send humanitarian assistance. The WFP requires around $220 million a month to avert a food crisis during the harsh winter months.

Pakistan may face the direct brunt of the evolving humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. In case of an economic collapse (which may be quite soon under the existing scenario), Pakistan needs to be ready to host up to another one million, mostly non-vaccinated both for Covid-19 and polio, refugees. Sharing its essential imports (wheat, petroleum products, and vaccines) with the refugees would further increase the current account deficit, affecting the value of the rupee versus US dollar and the interest rate. On top of it, Pakistan would have no filter to distinguish foes (members of anti-Pakistan groups) from friends among the refugees. A few thousand miscreants among a half-million peaceful Afghan refugees would be enough to sabotage the peace that the people of Pakistan achieved after braving hundreds of suicide bombers during the last two decades.

The socio-economic security of Pakistan and, most notably, the dignified assistance of Afghan people, are linked with a resumption of foreign aid if not unfreezing of Afghan assets.

No one can disagree with the Western demands for fundamental rights for Afghans. However, punishing the intended beneficiaries and letting them starve to death because their rulers are not respecting their basic rights is akin to throwing the baby out with the bathwater and must be avoided.

The West can follow the Yemeni model, where Houthis the de-facto rulers of Yemen do not enjoy international recognition. However, the international community is funding Yemeni civil servants and the people of Yemen, calling it support to President Hadis government in exile (based in Saudi Arabia).

Finally, we dont have to pay the Taliban to pay the salaries of staffers of basic services delivery departments or take care of food aid in Afghanistan. International NGOs and UN agencies can hire such civil servants as their short-term service providers and pay them directly, bypassing the Taliban. However, a functional banking system is a prerequisite for transferring such aid. The US would have to come up with an innovative solution for that.

Afghans are calling; one hopes the West is paying attention to their miseries.

Twitter: @abidsuleri

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The Afghans are calling - The News International

India has had a history of airlines which have ended in failure. Among them were Vijay Mallya's Kingfisher Airlines, businessman Naresh Goyal's Jet Airways and the country's first low-cost carrier, Air Deccan, founded by former army captain GR Gopinath.

Despite these collapses and a turbulent operating environment, which has only worsened during the coronavirus pandemic, Indian billionaire Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is seemingly undeterred.

He is trying his hand at bringing the new Akasa Air to the skies along with former Jet Airways chief executive Vinay Dube. The new airline is billed as an ultra low-cost carrier and it plans to start operating in the coming months. But Akasa Air will be flying into stormy weather.

Considering the past and present situation, it will not be a cakewalk for the company and it will have to overcome many hurdles to make its way up, says Nitin Shah, the executive director of Findoc, an Indian financial services group.

As the aviation industry worldwide grapples with the impact of the pandemic, Indian airlines are projected to report collective losses of between $3.2 billion and $3.7bn in the current financial year ending March 31, 2022, according to aviation consultancy Capa India.

But analysts also point to room for growth in India's aviation sector, as Asia's third-largest economy is expected to expand in the coming years.

The country's economy is forecast to grow 9.5 per cent this year and 8.5 per cent in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund, after shrinking 7.3 per cent in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

By 2030, Indias international air traffic is projected to increase by between 50 million and 60 million passengers a year compared with pre-Covid levels, to reach 115 million to 125 million, according to Capa. It is then expected to double again by 2040, to 240 million.

Increasingly, Indians are expected to take up air travel. Currently, only a single-digit percentage of its population of almost 1.4 billion travels by air. And that is the market potential Akasa Air is targeting.

India is one of the fastest-developing aviation markets and has extraordinary potential, says Mr Shah. There is a huge potential for the sector to grow in future. The Indian aviation sector has witnessed a strong recovery in the post-lockdown era.

But the near-term challenges are great, analysts say. Even before the Covid-19 crisis hit, India's aviation industry was going through turbulence. Factors including price wars between India's carriers and soaring taxes on fuel pushed several airlines into steep losses, leaving them in a precarious position.

High fuel and running costs, and a capital intensive business, along with cut-throat competition, has made the business of even the best-placed players quite vulnerable to any adverse developments, says Richa Agarwal, a senior research analyst at Equitymaster.

High fuel and running costs, and a capital intensive business, along with cut-throat competition, has made the business of even the best-placed players quite vulnerable to any adverse developments

Richa Agarwal, senior research analyst, Equitymaster

In recent history, the full extent of the woes of the sector came into sharp focus with the demise of Kingfisher Airlines in 2012. The airline, set up by liquor tycoon Vijay Mallya, started operations in 2005. It launched amid great fanfare and gained a lot of popularity among consumers, becoming known for its high levels of customer service.

But the competitive environment and the airline's high costs meant that it became unviable, and it became a struggle for the company to pay its staff and bank loans. It was the airline's failure and insolvency that led to Mr Mallya becoming a wilful defaulter, as he fled to the UK, where he is currently based. The Indian government is fighting to have him extradited.

Air Deccan went down with Kingfisher after the budget airline, which had run into losses, merged with Kingfisher in 2007.

Following Kingfisher's demise, low-cost carrier SpiceJet was on the verge of collapse. But Ajay Singh, its co-founder, stepped in with a rescue package. This involved restructuring the airline's ownership. SpiceJet survived, seemingly against the odds.

Indian billionaire Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. Prashanth Vishwanathan / The National

Players in this segment have shut shop in the last few years due to mounting debts, poor acquisitions and cheaper prices offered by competitors, says Gaurav Garg, the head of research at CapitalVia Global Research. Also, the rising fuel prices and a depreciating rupee seem to be a major reason in the increasing operating costs of the airlines.

Jet Airways also became a victim of the tough operating environment and it stopped flying in April 2019, when it ran out of cash.

Even Air India, the country's flag carrier, has long struggled with losses and mounting debt. This led to its long-awaited privatisation this year, with Tata Sons acquiring the ailing airline.

In the past decade, seven airlines have ceased operations, including regional carriers like Air Costa and Air Pegasus, alongside bigger players.

There is fierce competition among Indian carriers, as the market continues to recover from the impact of Covid-19. Akasa Air's plan to hit the skies coincides with Jet Airways' aim to resume operations in 2022 under new ownership.

We believe the entry of another low-cost operator, Akasa, will only make the going tough, Ms Agarwal says. The industry dynamics will remain challenging with the fight for slots and traffic, and high costs.

For these reasons, she does not think it is a good investment.

We believe that in the past, quite often, tycoons obsession for airline business has been more driven by megalomania than a sound investment decision based on economics, she says. Its not bad luck.

The impact of Akasa Air on low-cost carriers is likely to be similar to that of Kingfisher's on full-cost carriers seen in 2005, according to Kapil Kaul, chief executive and director at Capa India.

Kingfisher's impact on full-cost carriers was very strategic, which led to some bad decisions by Jet Airways, including the acquisition of Air Sahara, he says.

However, Akasa Air is regarded as a major emerging player based on the financial strength and the hiring strategy so far, Mr Kaul says.

Working in its favour is the Bengaluru-based airlines strong team, which offers a chance at success, some experts say.

Mr Jhunjhunwala, the co-founder of Akasa Air, holds a 40 per cent stake in the new airline. A stock trader and investor, he is often referred to as the Warren Buffett of India because of his savvy stock investments.

Mr Dube is the chief executive of the new airline, and Aditya Ghosh, the former president of India's largest domestic carrier, IndiGo, is also on the board.

Certain carriers have committed the mistake of over expansion and taking on huge debt, which led to stretching too wide and ultimately, the collapse of the business, Mr Garg says.

On the contrary, Akasa being a well-capitalised new entrant, holds the potential to be successful over the long term if it focuses on certain crucial elements like managing its fleet composition, distribution model and destination selection, which would differentiate it from the existing players and provide a competitive edge.

Akasa Air is already well-positioned for its take-off in 2022, having placed an order this month for 72 Boeing 737 Max planes, valued at close to $9bn.

We are already witnessing a strong recovery in air travel and we see decades of growth ahead of us, Mr Dube said at the time of the deal, announced during the Dubai Airshow.

Akasa Air's core purpose is to help power India's growth engine and democratise air travel by creating an inclusive environment for all Indians, regardless of their socio-economic or cultural backgrounds.

As an ultra low-cost carrier, Akasa Air will have an opportunity to win over passengers with low fares, says Mr Shah. But the key to profitability will be focusing on keeping operating costs even lower than other airlines like IndiGo and SpiceJet, and making profits by selling a big volume of tickets.

Akasa Air will have to navigate its way through strong headwinds, but soaring profits could be on the horizon.

Updated: November 28th 2021, 4:40 AM

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Will India's Akasa Air be able to weather the turbulence facing other airlines? - The National

1960s AUTUMN SCENIC WITH CORNUCOPIA BESIDE WOODEN FENCE (Photo by H. Armstrong ... [+] Roberts/ClassicStock/Getty Images)

Thanksgiving Day is just as complex and layered as the casseroles consumed at dinners taking place across the nation in observance of the holiday. As millions of Americans celebrate family, friends, and unwavering gratitude, Indigenous Peoples are tasked withrefocusing the narrative to center the genocide of their ancestors. Societys refusal to acknowledge and account for intergenerational harm contributes to the ongoing socio-economic disparities plaguing their communities, today.

As many as 15 million Native Americanpeople are estimated to have been livingin North America when ChristopherColumbus arrived in 1492. Toward the end ofthe 19th century, a mere 238,000 remained. As thousands of Indigenous women and children continue going missing, and activists face incarceration for protecting the environmentsolidarity to Indigenous communities is more critical now, than ever.

Throughout American history, they have survived over 1500wars, ambushes, raids and seizures all sanctioned by the United States government. Yet their bold love, indomitable resilience, ancestral connection and steady pursuit of healing are disrupting the colonial norms shaping the current social ecology.

These 9 Indigenous activists, educators, and healers are shattering common misconceptions about the origins of Thanksgiving and Indigenous history.

Soni Lopez-Chavez

Soni Lopez-Chavez

For Soni Lopez-Chavez, the pursuit of passion and beauty has called to her, her entire life. Born in the vibrant city of Guanajuato, Mexico at an early age, Lopez-Chavez moved to San Diego where she has resided ever-since, ever-inspired by the gorgeous scenery and diverse cultures.Currently favoring digital illustration as her medium of choice, her work embodies pulsating color schemes and themes of heritage as based off her own Indigenous background and childhood.

My parents gave up so much and worked endlessly to give me better opportunities. For them and for myself I create images to raise awareness, to help heal and inspire. I encourage you to support the healing process and self-determination of Indigenous communities. Learn more about Indigenous rights by helping those who have already been working on these issues for a long time like Indigenous artists, business owners, journalists, and community organizers.Soni Lopez-Chavez

Corrine Grey Cloud

Corrine Grey Cloud

Corinne Grey Cloud is Lakota and Mohawk and lives in Mission SD. She is the CEO of Rice Consulting LLC, a Diversity Equity and Inclusion company that works on Native Specific DEI trainings for Fortune 500 companies. Grey Clouds articles and work have been featured in Huffington Post, Al Jazeera, and Google. She currently is on staff forPowwows.comand serves on numerous boards including for Feminist on Instagram.

Thanksgiving is a complicated holiday for many people, but especially for Native folks. We have for centuries been presented a narrative that eludes to Natives having given the land they steward over to colonizers when in fact that interaction was bloody and traumatic with lasting effect today. I encourage the non-native population to embrace Thanksgiving as a day to be thankful for your relatives, and to drop the legend of an imaginary peaceful dinner between Pilgrims and Indians. Its ok to embrace what is the truth of our history, while working toward making our nation a better and more inclusive one. Corrine Grey Cloud

Pnar Sinopoulos-Lloyd

Pnar Sinopoulos-Lloyd

Pnar Sinopoulos-Lloyd(they/them) is an award-winning Indigenous multi-species futurist, Quechua gender technologist, wildlife tracker and trans eco-philosopher. They along with their spouse are the co-founders of Queer Nature, a transdisciplinary organism stewarding, earth-based queer community through survival skills, multi-species kinship and rites of passage. Sinopoulos-Lloyds relationship with transness, hybridity, neurodivergence, Indigeneity and belonging guided their work in developing Queer Ecopsychology through a decolonial and autistic lens. As a survival skills mentor, one of their core missions is to uplift and amplify the brilliant survival skills that BIPOC, 2SLGBTQ+ and other systematically targeted populations already have in their resilient bodies of survivance.

"An integral way to support Indigenous folks is honoring Indigenous cosmological technologies this includes our prismatic genders. Gender liminality is Indigenous cosmological technology.This includes disrupting cisheteropatriarchy which is a tool of settler colonialism. In my Andean lineage, our gender expansiveness is specifically a technique for world-making during collapse and apocalypse (Pachacuti). This original instruction of futurist is embedded in our origin story as Qariwarmis, our Andean Two-Spirit (2S) role. Center and amplify 2S and Trans Native leadership and brilliance." Pnar Sinopoulos-Lloyd

Luis and Trini Rodrguez

Luis Rodrguez (Mixcoatl Itztlacuiloh) and Trini Rodrguez (Tlazohteotl)

Luis Rodrguez (Mixcoatl Itztlacuiloh) and Trini Rodrguez (Tlazohteotl) are Indigenous spiritual practitioners and activists for some 30 years, based in the San Fernando Valley (SFV) section of Los Angeles. Luis is Mexica/Raramuri and Trini is Mexica/Wixarika. Their teachers have been among the Dine (Navajo), Lakota, Akimel Ooldham, Mexica (in Mexico and US), Maya (in Mexico and Guatemala), Pibil of El Salvador, and Quechua in Peru, among others. Luis is part of the SFVs Turtle Lodge. Trini facilitates the Hummingbird Womens Lodge. They are cofounders of Tia Chuchas Centro Cultural & Bookstore of Sylmar CA, an Indigenous-based arts & literacy center. They also run the podcast The Hummingbird Cricket Hour, which addresses personal and social issues with an Indigenous lens.

Clarity is also Medicine. Luis & Trini Rodrguez

Fidel Rodriguez

Fidel Rodriguez

Fidel Rodriguez works as a producer, educator, mentor, and organizer. For over 20 years, He has produced several award-winning radio programs for Clear Channel and Pacifica Radio. Rodriquez has developed educational conferences, concerts, and has facilitated wellness and leadership trainings for numerous companies, government agencies, and non-profit organizations. The educator has been an international keynote speaker on topics ranging from culture, history, shamanism, spirituality, consciousness, wellness, violence, decolonization, and creating paradigm shifts in thinking.For over a decade, Rodriquez has worked for the Los Angeles County Human Relations Commission where he facilitates adult leadership trainings and creates youth development and wellness workshops for youth affected by childhood trauma and the juvenile justice system. These workshops focus on practical wellness tools, history, trauma, poverty, racism, leadership, and healing.Rodriquez graduated from the University of Southern California as a McNair Scholar with degrees in Chicano/Latino and African American studies and is a certified trainer for Franklin Covey. He is an initiated Awo, which describes one who possesses specialized, esoteric knowledge and wisdom, in the ancient wisdom known as Ifa.

The transformation of human consciousness is upon us, we all feel it.It is now time to let go of the painful experiences youve endured on your journey that now live in your mind. Let go of them, they no longer serve you.Connect at every moment with Mother Earth and your ancestors.Love yourself, share loving-kindness with all beings you encounter, and may your character not spoil your destiny. We our the ancestors of those yet unborn. With deep gratitude to all who read these words. You are loved. Fidel Rodrguez

Allen Salway

Allen Salway

Allen Salway is a 23-year-old Din, Oglala Lakota, Tohono Oodham Writer, Influencer, and Cultural Curator from the NavajoNation. The climate justice activists work has been featured on MTV News, Washington Post, New York Times, Paper Magazine and several other publications. Salway, an ambassador for DigDeeps Navajo Water Project, is committed to bringing water and electricity to Navajo families living without.

To me, Thanksgiving is a reminder of our resistance as Indigenous People navigating this settler society that continuously tries to erase and destroy us. Yet, we are still here. Allen Salway

Charlie Amy Scott

Charlie Amy Scott

A Din scholar born and raised within the Navajo Nation, Charlie Amy Scott (they/her) reflects, analyzes, and critiques what it means to be a Din in the 21st century on her personal blog,dineaesthetics.com, while inspiring joy and justice to thousands on Instagram and TikTok at @dineaesthetics.

My ancestors, and the ancestors of so many Indigenous communities have survived displacement, removal, and genocide. No matter what this colonizing world attempts to do, we will continue to be here reminding people of our strength, our beauty, and our voice. Today, and every day, I celebrate the brilliance of Indigenous Peoples, and hope others join me. Learn and grow a little more, and challenge the colonial narratives we are told and support Indigenous Peoples, our issues and our causes. Charlie Amy Scott

Xiuhtezcatl

Xiuhtezcatl

Xiuhtezcatl, Mexica and Xochimilca,bridges many worlds through his music and his voice. As an Indigenous creative, his vision comes to life at the intersection of art, storytelling and community organizing. A multifaceted performer and Hip Hop artist, Xiuhtezcatls music serves as a vehicle to reclaim space, build community and engage his generation in reimagining our future.

Indigenous people are reclaiming space and shifting culture everywhere we look, from the climate movement, to the fashion and entertainment industry and beyond. As we continue to tear down physical and symbolic monuments to enslavement and genocide, I encourage y'all to tap into the wave of Indigenous creatives, artists, storytellers, organizers and leaders. Get familiar with the complexity and diversity of Indigenous peoples and voices. That is where our strength lies. Before you know it, we will be impossible to ignore. Xiuhtezcatl

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A Day Of Dinner And Decolonization: 9 Indigenous Activists, Educators And Healers To Follow - Forbes

The day after President Biden was inaugurated, Baghdad was hit by two suicide bombers who, in macabre fashion, killed at least 32 people and wounded at least 100. The attack was a stark reminder that the Iraq theater is still a critical one for combatting ISIS and preventing it from mounting a resurgence. With this in mind, U.S.-Iraq ties are worth salvaging after their deterioration over the past four years. ISIS is strongly positioned to carry out more routine mass-casualty attacks. While the January bombing was its first major terrorist attack in Baghdad in over three years, ISIS carries out near-daily attacks in the rest of the country and could develop a momentum similar to that which preceded its declaration of a caliphate in 2014.

There are two underlying challenges that makes ISIS capable of carnage and launching a resurgence: Iraqs desperate need for an economic revival and the threat from Shiite militia groups. Addressing both requires that Washington adopt a set of guiding principles for its engagement with Iraq an approach premised on the fact that Iraqs economic crisis and the threat from Iran-aligned Shiite militia groups are two sides of the same coin.

Iraqs economic crisis will produce untold poverty levels if it is not addressed. The COVID-19 pandemic, together with the decline in oil prices, has added to the urgency of stabilizing the precarious security environment and reviving the economy. According to the World Bank, 12 million Iraqis could soon become vulnerable to poverty. Iraq has a budget shortfall of around $4.5 billion monthly and debt in excess of $80 billion. At least 700,000 Iraqis enter the job market every year but struggle to find jobs.

In this environment of destitution and lawlessness, the influence of Iran-aligned militias will increase; their reach and strength within Iraqi society is underscored by a complex web of inter-personal and inter-organizational links that make their elimination difficult, if not impossible. Central to their predominance is their capacity to exploit socio-economic conditions to swell their ranks with the impoverished and reinforce their patronage networks. When combined with their ongoing and systemic violence against political rivals and the civilian population, this allows them to impose a stranglehold over Iraqs institutions.

On the surface, the Baghdad government has effectively outsourced security to some of these groups in the territories that were previously occupied by ISIS, but in reality the government is too weak to confront them and impose its authority in strategically important territories. The militias are disdained by the local population as a result of their human rights abuses and ongoing sectarian crimes. This allows ISIS to exploit the resulting grievances and cracks in the security environment, and potentially mount a resurgence.

These militia groups also lack the professionalism and discipline to contain ISIS their primary focus is not to secure ISIS defeat, but to secure broader political and territorial objectives, in direct coordination with Iran. Mondays rocket attack on Erbil by Iran-aligned groups shows that they will continue undermining the coalitions efforts to secure the enduring defeat of ISIS. In addition to consolidating their control over illicit economies, the militia groups are augmenting their bastions in Iraqs north. From places like Sinjar, the militias and Iran can pursue cross-border objectives in Syria.

Under President Trump, U.S.-Iraq relations were volatile. While the Biden team in charge of the Iraq portfolio should not emulate the Trump administrations stance regarding Iran and its proxies, it should not assume either that long-term security-sector reform efforts will actually rein in these actors. Biden should focus on empowering Iraqi actors who can hold Iran-aligned groups to account, and who can constrain their ability to shape Iraqs political, economic, and security environment. In the process, Washington can enable economic reforms that will reduce those groups stranglehold over the state.

While there was some hope that security sector reform would result in the integration of Iran-aligned militias into the armed forces, as well as their demobilization and disarmament, this has proven to be a costly miscalculation for which the average Iraqi is paying the price. Through their control of the Popular Mobilization Force (the 100,000-strong umbrella militia organization led and dominated by Irans proxies, which was integrated into the state in 2016), the interior ministry, and an array of other militias, Iran-aligned groups exert undue influence over the Iraqi state. They coerce or kill champions of reform and good governance such as Hisham al-Hashimi and Riham Yaqoob.

These groups have also assassinated government officials and are responsible for killing at least 700 protesters and wounding thousands. Yes, Iraq has an array of armed groups as a consequence of its recent history and its pre-war legacies but it is this particular group of militias that negotiates with its rivals through systemic violence, including assassinations, rocket attacks, and improvised explosive device attacks on coalition personnel. And it is this group of militias that, at Irans bidding, attacks prospective and much-needed investors from the Gulf to prevent Iraq from developing its relations with the Arab world and saving its economy in the process.

The Biden administration has an opportunity to establish new guiding principles for its relations with Iraq. It should focus on possible near- and medium-term wins.

Washington should view two issues as interconnected: its economic support for Iraq and the threat that the Baghdad government faces from Iran-backed militia groups. The resources and energy it spends on Iraqs institutions must no longer indirectly empower the actors that use violence to shape the direction of the political environment. That also means U.S. military support which is designed to strengthen the Baghdad government so that it can undertake the economic regeneration of the country free from the threat of violence must not become an enabler of militia violence. For example, U.S. Abrams tanks and other equipment supplied to Baghdad in the past are now in the hands of Irans deadliest and most powerful partners. Iraqs protesters, civil society, and wider population pay the price.

Washingtons counterterrorism strategy, in coordination with Baghdad, should seek to address Iran-backed militia atrocities in addition to the threat of ISIS. The former ultimately enables the latter. As part of this, Washington should pressure Baghdad to stop expanding the purse that allows militia groups to grow. Iraqs federal budget proposal for 2021 has been criticized. As my Brookings colleague Marsin Alshamarys analysis shows, it proposes to increase the budget allocation for the Ministry of Defense by 9.9%, the Ministry of Interior by 9.7%, the Counter Terrorism Force by 10.1%, and the Popular Mobilization Forces by a staggering 45.7% from the previous budget of 2019.

Irans allies and enablers in Baghdad have sowed confusion and distorted their own complicity in human rights atrocities by adding more militia groups to their growing network of partners. They blame these so-called rogue groups for human rights violations, rocket attacks, attacks on protesters, and assassinations. The Biden administration should not fall for this sophisticated effort to create a degree of plausible deniability that allows them to escape culpability.

Washington should also help the Iraqi security forces insulate reformists from the threat of intimidation and assassination, to include politicians and activists. As a start, the U.S. should work with Iraqi civil society to improve its capacity to expose the nexus between Irans proxies and their front groups, a key part of the accountability process. This could empower (and pressure) Kadhimi to take more action on Irans proxy network in Iraq, and pressure the judiciary to act.

The reason its so important to promote broad reform in Iraq is because, as I wrote last year, economic revival will diminish the resources and manpower that Iran-aligned groups depend on. Iraq must work to erode the patronage networks that allow them to exploit the impoverished, and improve accountability and transparency to constrain their ability to carry out atrocities with impunity. The U.S. should support the pillars of economic regeneration including the prime ministers office, the finance ministry, and the Trade Bank of Iraq, among others to enhance Iraqi efforts vis--vis strategic partnerships with the Gulf, financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, and the establishment of a modern banking infrastructure in the country.

Iran-aligned militias are a major political force as much as they are a military one. Prime Minister Kadhimi should avoid making rivals out of political actors that also want to contain these groups. U.S. engagement with Iraq should consequently focus on mediation between actors that have strong ties to Washington. Efforts to ensure these groups are unified on critical policy issues like revenue-sharing agreements, budget allocations, and the disputed territories should be central to U.S. engagement with Iraq. Moreover, Washington should not be averse to the idea of making support to the Kadhimi government conditional on its ability to reconcile at least some of its differences with U.S. aligned groups. Otherwise, short-term support for Iraq risks becoming either sunk costs, or long-term gains for Iran-aligned groups.

Iraqs struggle with its Iran-aligned militia groups is very multifaceted, and no one policy solution out of Baghdad or Washington will be enough on its own. But given the way these groups exploit Iraqs dire economic situation, in particular, economic reform from within and support from without should be considered a key part of the overall response to these nefarious armed actors.

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To save Iraq from economic collapse and fight ISIS, contain Irans proxies - Brookings Institution

DATE: Monday 22 Feb. 2021 | TIME: 4:00 - 6:30 (Beirut Time)

Click to Register

Tripoli, the capital of northern Lebanon, is in the news once again. Over the past few weeks, the city has been the site of protests and clashes amidst the countrys deteriorating economic situation. Discourse on Tripoli is often a dichotomy, portraying the city as a hub of extremists as well as nicknaming it the Bride of the Revolution in 2019 after the outbreak of widespread national protests against the countrys corrupt political leadership. Politicians and pundits are warning that the most recent violent protests in Tripoli will spread elsewhere throughout the country.

The Arab Reform Initiative and the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center are hosting two joint public panel discussions that aim to offer a deeper understanding of the current events in Tripoli. They will examine the city at the intersection of the crisis of the political system and political leadership, the deteriorating socio-economic situation, and potential regional influences.

The panels will take place on Monday, February 22 from 4:00 p.m. Beirut (GMT+2). The discussions will be held on Zoom in Arabic and broadcast live on Facebook with simultaneous interpretation to English available on Zoom only. Viewers may submit their questions for the panelists during the live event.

You can register to attend by clicking on the button above. You will receive a Zoom confirmation email should your registration be successful. Alternatively, you can watch the event live on our Facebook page.

4:00-5:00 p.m. Beirut (EET) with Alia Ibrahim, Nawaf Kabbara, Khaled Ziadeh, and Jamil Mouawad.

Panelists will explore the key political and socioeconomic dynamics in Tripoli by linking them to the history of the city and developments in Lebanon. This will include the citys historic socioeconomic marginalization and its place at one time as a hub for Islamists and leftists and a gateway to Syria, as well as a city over which the Syrian regime maintained tight control starting in the late 1980s until their withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005. The city is also host to the wealthiest politicians in the country. Consequently, speakers will explore the interplay between regional intervention, identity politics, local political competition, and local developments in the panel.

5:30-6:30 p.m. Beirut (EET) with Mustafa Aweek, Jana Dhaiby, Samer Hajjar, and Darine Helwe.

The speakers will discuss Tripolis protest movements and analyze their prospects and political impact on both the local and national levels. This panel will pay particular attention to the initiatives and projects that were planned for Tripoli but never implemented and which need to be undertaken to revive the struggling city. It will examine the protest movements ability to change the narrative around Tripoli, as well as the projects that can be adopted given the countrys collapse.

The webinar will be in Arabic with simultaneous interpretation to English available on Zoom only.

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Is there a Tripoli Exception? Arab Reform Initiative -

Infectious diseases, livelihood crises and extreme weather events are the top clear and present dangers facing the world today. A new World Economic Forum report in collaboration with Marsh McLennan, SK Group and Zurich International explores the worlds risk profile.

The analysis is based on a survey of more than 800 people across the globe, who were asked to pinpoint factors that could become a critical threat now and in the future. The backdrop is Covid-19, and the goal is to take a closer look on how it has rocked the world.

The 2021 report reflects the depth and disparity of the pandemics impact, explores how critical global challenges have been exacerbated and reshaped, and highlights the need to address these risks in a more collaborative way, explained Carolina Flint, Managing Director & Risk Management Leader at Marsh.

For a nuanced overview, the researchers broke the global risk profile down into three distinct timelines. Clear & present dangers refer to threats that could hit home within the next two years. Knock-on effects will ensue in the medium term between three and five years from now. Then there are existential threats fundamental issues that could manifest in the next five to ten years.

The clear & present dangers very much reflect the key events of 2020. For instance, the threat frominfectious disease was font and centre cited by nearly 60% of survey respondents. With job losses abound, livelihood crises were labeled a current threat by 55%, while extreme weather events were the third biggest threat presumably relating to bushfires and floods.

With business IT infrastructure stretched across personal and home networks, cyber security has also made its way up the immediate threat profile. Of note in the top five immediate risks is digital inequality where socio-economic disparities are worsened as expensive technology becomes the key to business and personal survival.

A widening digital gap can worsen societal fractures and undermine prospects for an inclusive recovery, explained Daniel Glaser, President & CEO at Marsh McLennan. Indeed, a bigger socio-economic gap could be a severe threat to social cohesion in the future a top concern for 40% of respondents.

In similar vein, many brows are furrowed by the prospect of youth disillusionment stemming from a lost young generation that has now faced two economic crises and icy job markets as a result. These youth stand to lose out on economic opportunities for one, while also facing mental health challenges. Economic stagnation is also a chief risk, while perennial threats from terrorism and environmental damage persist in the backdrop.

These are near term concerns. In the medium term, the threat profile takes on a more economic and financial avatar. Many are worried about asset bubble bursts, price instability, commodity shocks and debt crises all of which are both products and harbingers of a protracted economic crisis.

Technology is also a medium term worry. Digital adoptionleapfrogged several years in a matter of months during the pandemic, and many are worried that the IT infrastructure is simply not equipped for such a boom in volumes. A breakdown of this infrastructure is a top concern, as is a breakdown of its security.

Outside of these factors, the medium term is rife with concerns about international relations. Inter state conflicts, fractured trade relations and resource geopolitisation all of which were key themes unfolding even before the pandemic are prone to return again amid a weak and internalised global economy.

Geopolitical worries persist through the long term as well. Weapons of mass destruction are the top concern in the next five to ten years, while the collapse of states and multilateralism are also dreaded prospects. Half of the survey respondents also expressed concern around the rapid advancement of technology and its implications over a long term horizon on jobs and security.

Then there are a host of environmental risks, which most expect to manifest over the five to ten year horizon. These include loss of biodiversity, natural resource crises, and the failure of concerted climate action. Some fear that the current trends of health and environmental crises might even spur a backlash against science in the future a pattern that is already emerging in some sections of society.

Climate changeto which no one is immunecontinues to be a catastrophic risk. Although lockdowns worldwide caused global emissions to fall in the first half of 2020, evidence from the 20082009 Financial Crisis warns that emissions could bounce back. A shift towards greener economiescannot be delayed until the shocks of the pandemic subside, noted Glaser.

Indeed, action is the need of the hour to navigate this growing risk landscape, each part of which is real and devastating in its own right. Glaser highlights that collaborative efforts could take the world in the right direction, and mitigate some of these challenges.

With governments still deliberating how to pivot away from emergency to recovery, and with companies anticipating a changed business landscape, there are opportunities to invest in smart, clean and inclusive growth that will improve productivity and delivery of sustainable agendas.

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The top global risks facing the world in 2021 and beyond - Consultancy.uk

What began as protests demanding reform and the lifting of the heavy hand of the security agencies in Syria in 2011 has mushroomed over the past decade into a long and bitter conflict with the involvement of intertwining domestic, regional and international interests. The demands of the people have been ignored, and the international community has forgotten the root causes of the original protests. Meanwhile, the Syrian people have endured colossal human and material losses, the greatest in the past 50 years, according to UN figures.

During the first year, the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad dealt with the peaceful protests with enormous brutality, causing them to escalate into a full-scale uprising and then a revolution widely supported by the Arabs and the international community. In the second year, however, the revolution was militarised, and the violence escalated, followed by immense human and economic losses. The Syrian state and society were impacted on all levels, and the conflict became a civil war involving Syrians and non-Syrians alike.

Syrian opposition figure Saeed Moqbel commented that Bashar Al-Assad has been ruling Syria as if the country and everything in it are his personal possessions. He has exercised sectarian and discriminatory policies against the people, greatly harming national unity and stripping away the countrys demographic identity. He has tried to seize legitimacy by force, tyrannising the people and destroying the state. This is a regime that does not believe in freedom or democratic solutions and that will never abandon its despotic ways.

Since the Syrian people have been unable to resolve their political troubles, various scenarios involving international powers have come to the fore. Along with neighbouring Turkey, there are many other players in Syria today, including Iran, Russia, the US, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, many of which are likely to play an important role in deciding the countrys future. Israel has avoided being directly involved, even though it has influenced the course of the crisis and wants to see an unstable Syria swamped with difficulties.

The Syrian regime did not collapse due to support from Iran and then from Russia. Al-Assad and his regime have remained at the helm, trying to govern a country that is teetering on the brink of becoming a failed state even in security and military terms. Today, the regime only controls a portion of the countrys territory, while Turkey and the US control others. Iran and its militias control other parts, though these are diminishing as the US puts more pressure on Tehran.

Over the past decade, various peace and political-reform initiatives have been proposed by the Arabs that the Syrian regime has rejected out of hand, severing its ties with most Arab countries. The UN stepped in and has proposed other initiatives, including the Geneva Conference, UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and the Constitutional Committee, but none of these have succeeded. Russia has also led several initiatives and aims to tailor a political solution that serves the regime. However, these Russian attempts have all failed to find a solution to the crisis.

All the major players in Syria assert that they are invested in finding a political solution that will maintain the integrity and borders of the country, despite disputes over issues such as power-sharing, democratic representation and central government. Yet, in 2012, armed groups began pouring into Syria from abroad, carving up the country among warring rivals that reflected the interests of their financiers and supporters. Governance, security, judicial and educational structures in every region now reflect the ideology of those in control of them, and a socio-economic war has broken out on the margins of the military war, with various warlords digging in their heels.

With help from Russia, which sent its troops into Syria in 2015, the Syrian regime was able to regain control of most of the country with the exception of the Idlib province in northwest Syria, which is the stronghold of the Turkey-backed Syrian opposition, and northeast Syria under Kurdish control with US backing. Some pockets are controlled by the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), formerly the Al-Nusra Front, which is listed as a terrorist organisation.

REFORMS: In 2012, the ruling Syrian Baath Party lost much of its notional influence after Al-Assad issued a new constitution without the article proclaiming the leadership of the Baath Party of state and society.

The new constitution gives further powers to the president, and to sweeten the pill, political pluralism was allowed, creating innocuous parties under the thumb of the security agencies. The latter have been given leeway without accountability, and Al-Assad continues to obstruct political solutions that do not serve his interests.

Areas under opposition control were subjected to informal mixed governance. The opposition formed an interim government in the north, and local councils relied on networks that operated intermittently, increasing the ongoing fragmentation and causing international donors to step back. Continued human-rights violations, war crimes and a lack of accountability have undermined attempts to achieve a sustainable peace.

A 2018 UN human-rights report said that civilians were being deliberately targeted in the conflict in Syria using illegal and brutal methods. The violations included destroying civilian infrastructure, medical facilities, schools and markets. Mass detentions, forced disappearances, torture and abuses against children reached unprecedented levels.

The Syrian conflict has become an international issue, and international players have gained great influence. However, efforts to rebuild the country vanished when Washington linked reconstruction to a political solution and warned the international community to shelve the issue until tangible steps were taken.

The opposition weakened, as did the government, which caused the regime to raise taxes and control the flow of humanitarian aid. The economy collapsed, the value of the Syrian lira went into freefall and hunger spread across the country.

Several parallel peace processes got underway under international sponsorship, including by the US. The UN sponsored the Geneva Process in 2012, and Russia launched the Astana Process in 2017 with a focus on military and security issues. In 2015, UN Security Council Resolution 2254 was adopted as an alternative to the Geneva Process with lower expectations. In 2019 and 2020, the process lost momentum due to domestic and international developments including increased sanctions by the US and Turkey taking control of northern Syria.

Despite multiple peace initiatives, the instability has continued until today. The probability that the conflict would worsen remained although military operations declined across the country. Much hope has hung on the Constitutional Committee created by the UN in 2019 to draft a new constitution for the country. However, the committee has met just four times, and it has not even taken preliminary steps towards penning a new constitution.

Sanctions have taken their toll on Syrian society, and the war economy has worsened, with the continued accumulation of illegal wealth. There are some 5.5 million Syrian refugees, mostly located in Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq and Egypt. Many of them live below the poverty line and under harsh socio-economic conditions. According to UN sources, there are more than 11.7 million people in Syria, five million of whom are children, who need at least one form of humanitarian aid.

The countrys healthcare facilities have deteriorated, and 48 per cent of the population are unable to receive medical attention. Some 15.5 million Syrians lack regular access to potable water, while thousands of schools have been destroyed, and more than one million children are not attending school since more than 140,000 teachers have lost their jobs. Syria will grapple with an entire lost generation in the future.

Commenting on the sanctions and how they brutalise the population, dissident Syrian diplomat Bashar Al-Haj Ali said that the sanctions did not cut off the livelihood of the regime. They used them to oppress and humiliate the people and bring them to their knees. The regime was protected from punishment by repeated Russian vetoes in the UN Security Council, and it has been immune from accountability for using chemical weapons, committing war crimes, and crimes against humanity.

The regime continues to steal from humanitarian agencies, most notably the UN, the International Red Cross and the International Red Crescent, and it will continue to evade punishment unless there is an international mechanism based on Chapter VII of the UN Charter, namely, the use of force to implement international resolutions, Al-Haj Ali said.

Over the past decade, unemployment in Syria has shot up to 55 per cent and 75 per cent among young people. Women have been plagued by gender-based violence, tolerance has decreased and persecution based on identity, ideology, religion and race has increased. Poverty levels have risen to nearly 40 per cent, and much of the population now lives on less than $1.90 a day. The sharp social and economic downturn has resulted in a steep decline in the middle class.

Among the major problems are the refugees, demographic changes, poverty, the foreign military presence, the regimes rejecting any political solution it disagrees with, Israels security, Russian expansionism, Irans sectarian ambitions, Washingtons ambitions, Turkeys intention to secure its border at the expense of Syria and everyones desire to control energy resources. All these factors make a political solution very difficult, Moqbel said.

Some 35 per cent of Syrian territories are controlled by the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the Syrian arm of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is listed as a terrorist group by the US and Turkey. Almost all of the countrys water, agricultural and especially oil resources are controlled by the PYD.

The Syrian people have lost confidence and feel betrayed. The majority of Syrians believe in a conspiracy against them, which ironically was the first accusation hurled by Al-Assad at the peaceful unarmed protesters who rose up against him at the beginning of the revolution. But the conspiracy is not against the regime, but against the freedom of the people and the democracy they sought, Al-Haj Ali said.

A decade after the conflict in Syria began, there are no winners or losers. What is needed is a new social contract and forging ahead on a consensual process based on UN Security Council Resolution 2254 that guarantees a transition to a plural and democratic country. The countrys political institutions must be restructured to erase the remnants of conflict and sectarianism, which will likely continue for decades if such steps are not taken.

*A version of this article appears in print in the 24 December, 2020 edition ofAl-Ahram Weekly

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No light at the end of the Syrian tunnel - World - Al-Ahram Weekly - Ahram Online

By Express News Service

MYSURU:Irked by former CM H D Kumaraswamys charge that he had played a role in the collapse of the Congress-JDS coalition government, Opposition leader Siddaramaiah accused the former of running the government from a star hotel, and not taking MLAs into confidence.If I had plans of pulling down the Kumaraswamy government, I would not give my consent to make him CM as the JDS had just 38 MLAs, Siddaramaiah said at a Congress workers meet here on Friday.

He accused Kumaraswamy of being inaccessible to ministers and failing to listen to their grievances, and felt that the government would not have collapsed if he had reciprocated. Claiming that 14 party MLAs would not have left if the Congress had not supported the JDS, he hit out at Kumaraswamy for joining hands with the BJP after enjoying power with the support of the Congress.

Accusing the BJP government of being against social justice, Siddaramaiah said instead of accepting the caste-based socio-economic report to roll out constitutional benefits to the deserving, leaders are busy announcing caste-based corporations. The Ahinda leader said the special component funds for SCs and STs had been reduced to `21,000 crore from `36,000 crore, and was sure that Dalits would not vote for the BJP.

Criticising the anti-cow bill, Siddaramaiah claimed he would not hesitate to eat beef as it is his personal choice. He accused the government of misgovernance, saying that CM B S Yediyurappa and his son B Y Vijayendra had indulged in corruption, and accepted money through cheque and RTGS. The government had reduced rice for the poor from 7kg to 5kg, and was conspiring to shut down APMCs in the next five years, he added.

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14 MLAs wouldn't have left if Congress hadn't supported JDS: Siddaramaiah - The New Indian Express

The World Travel & Tourism Councils (WTTC) latest research indicates that, with this years COVID-induced collapse of international tourism, the U.S. economy is set to lose $155 billion in 2020. This catastrophic upset to the American economy is tantamount to a shortfall of $425 million a day, or almost $3 billion per week.

International travel spending in the U.S. during 2019 reached $195.1 billion, accounting for 16 percent of the countrys total tourism-sector spending. Thats nearly $16.3 billion each month, which equates to $3.7 billion every week or $534.5 million per day.

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The virtual evaporation of global travel activity for the better part of 2020 could result in international visitor spending declining by an astounding 79 percent, according to WTTCs analysis. WTTCs 2020 Economic Impact Report also makes clear COVID-19s far-reaching impact on the Travel and Tourism industry and global economics.

The report reveals that, in 2019, the Travel and Tourism sector provided 16.8 million American jobs (10.7 percent of the nations total workforce) and generated $1.8 trillion, which is equivalent to nine percent of the U.S. economy. WTTCs modeling mapped out a worst case scenario in which almost 12.1 million U.S. jobs may be lost due to the economic fallout of the pandemic.

The economic pain and suffering caused to millions of households across the U.S., who are dependent upon Travel and Tourism for their livelihoods, is evident from our latest shocking figures," said Gloria Guevara, WTTCs President and CEO.

The lack of international visitors to the U.S. due to the pandemic could wipe out more than $155 billion from the U.S. economy alonea loss of $425 million a dayfrom which it may take years to recover. It could also threaten New Yorks position as one of the worlds premier hubs for business and leisure travel, she explained.

Representing Travel and Tourisms private-sector players, the WTTC and its Members recently petitioned President Donald Trump and the other leaders of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom), asking that they work together to formulate a coordinated recovery response for the sector.

International coordination to re-establish transatlantic travel would provide a boost for the Travel and Tourism sector. It would benefit airlines and hotels, travel agents and tour operators, and revitalize the millions of jobs in the supply chain which are dependent upon international travel across the Atlantic," Guevara said.

She continued: We urgently need to replace blanket quarantine measures with rapid, comprehensive and cost-effective test and trace programs at departure points across the country. This investment will be significantly less than the impact of blunt quarantines which have devastating and far-reaching socio-economic consequences.

The recent $750 million deal with Abbott labs for $5 rapid test is very promising in this respect, and we hope that it allows the U.S. to continue to reopen and can prove as a blueprint for a way forward for other countries. Targeted test and tracing will help rebuild consumer confidence to travel."

According to WTTC research, in 2019, the Travel and Tourism industry supplied one in ten jobs (330 million in total), generated one in four of the worlds new jobs and contributed 10.3 percent to the global GDP.

For more information, visit wttc.org.

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The US Looks to Lose $155 Billion Without International Tourism in 2020 - TravelPulse

Mr. President (Ambassador Abdou Abarry of Niger), Excellencies,

Allow me to congratulate Niger for assuming the presidency of the Security Council during the month of September and for giving me the opportunity to brief this Council today.

It is becoming a regrettable clich to appear before you and warn that Libya is at a critical juncture but yet I am compelled to pronounce these same words again today. Libya is indeed at a decisive turning point. Your support, not only in words but most importantly in action, will help determine whether the country descends into new depths of fragmentation and chaos, or progresses towards a more prosperous future.

Mr. President, Excellencies,

On the ground, an uneasy stand-off continues around Sirte, imperiling the lives of the citys 130,000 vulnerable inhabitants as well as the countrys vital oil infrastructure which comprises its economic lifeline. While the frontlines have remained relatively quiet since June, both the Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF) and forces under the control of the Government of National Accord (GNA) continue to benefit from the regrettable assistance of foreign sponsors to stockpile advanced weaponry and equipment.

Since the Secretary-General last briefed you on 8 July, some 70 resupply flights landed in eastern airports in support of the LAAF while 30 resupply flights were dispatched to airports in western Libya in support of the GNA. Similarly, around nine cargo vessels docked in western ports in support of the GNA, while a reported three cargo vessels arrived in support of the LAAF. Foreign sponsors are fortifying their assets at key Libyan air bases in the east and west. The activity described above constitutes an alarming breach of Libyas sovereignty, a blatant violation of the UN arms embargo, not to mention the commitments undertaken by the Berlin conference participants. The Mission continues to receive reports of large-scale presence of foreign mercenaries and operatives, further complicating local dynamics and chances of a future settlement.

While the rate of incidents and accidents has decreased from booby traps, including IEDs, landmines and explosive remnants of war, explosive hazard contamination remains a significant risk to many communities, particularly in southern Tripoli. As of 24 August, a total of 61 people have been killed and 113 people injured, of which 107 are civilians. The UN continues to support the authorities to develop and implement strategies to ensure the safe, dignified, and voluntary returns of people to their homes.

Reports of imminent offensives, and reliance on social media networks to spread those rumors, exacerbate the risk of miscalculation. As a sign of increased volatility, localised tensions among armed groups, most recently in the cities of al-Asabaa, Sirte and neighboring localities, are on the rise with allegations of unlawful arrests and detention, abuse of power and targeting of civilians being widely shared with the Mission. These developments make the requirement for a genuine DDR programme even more urgent. On 26 August at night, General Haftar's forces launched Grad rockets towards areas in which GNA forces were operating near Sirte and last night there were similar reports of rockets launched by forces affiliated with General Haftar. The rockets did not cause any damage or injuries but are a breach of the ceasefire that General Haftar's spokesperson said he signed up to in June.

With the stakes so high, any such reckless action risks igniting large-scale confrontation, with the devasting consequences this would entail for the country and the region at large. It is imperative that you use your influence to impress on all sides that now is the time for restraint.

Mr. President, Excellencies,

Instability is further compounded by degraded socio-economic conditions, fueling popular unrest and threatening the fragile calm required to advance our security and political discussions.

The partial lifting of the oil blockade announced by the LAAF on 18 August had a minimal impact on the severe energy crisis faced by the country as it only applied to the removal of condensates from eastern stores. While this allowed the National Oil Corporation to continue providing natural gas for eastern power plants, the blockade otherwise remains unreasonably in place including a forced shutdown of all domestic refineries. As the international price of fuel increases, so do domestic fuel shortages which negatively impacts on multiple sectors of the economy, including electricity. In the nations capital, residents too often go without electricity for up to twenty hours per day. We must make the full lifting of oil blockade, which has been in place since January, a top priority.

The immiseration of the Libyan people is further compounded by the debilitating effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, which appears to be spiraling out of control. The number of confirmed cases has more than doubled in the last two weeks, with 15,156 cases and 250 recorded deaths as at 1 September. Exponential increases are a worrying trend with community transmission now reported in some of Libyas main cities, including Tripoli and Sebha. We are, however, looking at the problem through a keyhole, as persistent shortages in testing capabilities, adequate health care facilities and contact tracing mean that the true scale of the pandemic in Libya is likely to be much higher. Handling of the pandemic is constrained by the fragmentation of health sector institutions, the extreme shortage of medical supplies and workers as well as a funding shortage. Nearing full collapse after more than nine years of conflict, the health care system is unable to respond to the additional weight placed by COVID-19 patients along with maintaining normal health services, including child immunization programmes. The United Nations and our partners are at the forefront of supporting the national authorities, through the provision of health supplies and personal protection equipment. We are also working closely with the authorities to build capacity of health workers, to destigmatize the virus and increase awareness to ensure people take the proper precautions to protect themselves. It is essential that Libyan authorities cooperate transparently in our joint fight to control this terrible plague.

Mr. President, Excellencies,

Humanitarian access, compounded by COVID-19 restriction measures, remains a persistent challenge across the country. These challenges notwithstanding, the humanitarian organizations have reached more than 243,000 people with assistance since the beginning of the year. This includes support to 66,000 internally displaced people, 119,000 vulnerable, conflict-affected Libyans and recent returnees and 58,000 migrants and refugees.

The socioeconomic impact of COVID-19, along with the protracted crisis and the deteriorating public services, continued to stretch the coping capacities of those in the most vulnerable circumstances, particularly the more than one million people estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance in 2020.

I remain concerned that migrants, refugees and asylum-seekers continue to attempt to cross the Mediterranean, at great risk to their lives. I am deeply saddened by the recent deaths of 45 migrants and refugees in a single incident on 18 August when their boat sank off Libyas coast attempting to cross to Europe. More than 7,000 migrants and refugees have attempted this crossing this year; more than 300 of whom have died. Reports of delays in rescue and disembarkation highlight the need for a review of the European countries approach to this situation and for a more humane and predictable disembarkation mechanism in line with the responsibilities placed on Member States by international human rights law as well as search and rescue obligations. Libya cannot be considered as a safe port for disembarkation. Many migrants and refugees that have been intercepted at sea have been returned to Libya and placed into detention. As of 21 August, almost 2,400 migrants and refugees are in official detention centres in Libya, where they are subjected routinely to grave human rights violations. Many more are in unofficial sites where the UN does not have access. I continue to urge for greater steps by the authorities against smugglers and traffickers and for finding alternatives to detention in Libya.

UNSMIL welcomes the nomination by the High Commissioner for Human Rights of the three members of the independent Fact Finding Mission on Libya. We look forward to cooperating with them and assisting them in fulfilling their mission to document violations of international human rights and humanitarian law since 2016, address impunity for such violations and act as a deterrent. Sustainable peace in Libya will only be achieved through justice and accountability.

Excellencies, Mr. President,

All these elements are producing a fertile ground for social unrest across the country and confirm once more that the status-quo is simply unsustainable.

In recent days, Libyans have come out in force throughout the country, most notably in Tripoli, to express their anger over the lack of basic services, widespread water and power cuts and rampant corruption. I have personally communicated the United Nations concerns to Libyan authorities at reports of excessive force used against peaceful demonstrators and reiterated our calls for the rights to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression to be respected. Those who have been arbitrarily detained by armed groups must be released. The surge in the use of hate speech and incitement to violence occasionally stirred through foreign-based media outlets and electronic armies - appears designed to further divide Libyans, to increase polarization and tear at the country's social fabric at the expense of a Libyan-Libyan solution.

On 29 August, the situation morphed into an open political crisis when the Presidency Council suspended the Minister of Interior and expedited a governmental reshuffling, exposing underlying tensions that had resurfaced within the western camp, as the threat posed by General Haftars offensive subsided. Now is the time to join hands as efforts are being undertaken to reach a settlement that would aim to preserve the countrys sovereignty and integrity as well as to address long-standing economic shortcomings and the need to implement lasting DDR and security sector reforms.

Mr. President, Excellencies,

The disturbing trends I have just described should all compel us to press for immediate de-escalation and return to the political process before the fragile window of opportunity created by the informal halt in hostilities dissipates to the detriment of the Libyans first and foremost, but also to the detriment of international peace and security. Glimmers of hope have appeared from within Libya, which UNSMIL, with the support of the Berlin-established International Follow-up Committee on Libya, is working on nurturing and using as an anchor to its own efforts. Rejuvenation of political activity in the West and the East has enabled the emergence of a constituency advocating for change, for a Libyan-Libyan solution, to restore the countrys sovereignty and to disentangle themselves from broader regional and international struggles.

On 21 August, President of the Presidency Council Serraj and House of Representatives Speaker Saleh issued simultaneous, yet separate, statements calling for an immediate ceasefire, lifting of the oil blockade and a return to the political process, under UN auspices. These statements were met by overwhelming expressions of support coming from Libyans from all political affiliations and international partners alike. I remain optimistic that, with many points of convergence between both declarations, we may have a chance to move forward with regard to intra-Libyan political and security discussions while continuing to engage with other key political and military forces across the country.

Since the last briefing, I have conducted a number of missions to shore up support for the UNs efforts in Libya, including visits to the United Kingdom, Algeria, Morocco and Egypt. Earlier today, I met with Tunisian President Saied to specifically thank the Tunisian government for its unstinting support for the UNs operations in Libya. With all of my regional and international interlocutors, with all of them, I secured commitments to assist UNSMIL in our task to bring the Libyan parties together and to work to maintain calm on the ground. Libyas neighbors are directly threatened by the continuing instability and influx of weapons and mercenaries. I have also met directly with President Serraj, House of Representative Speaker Saleh and Higher State Council President Mishri as well as a number of their representatives and other key figures. I would like to thank the Swiss government for their superb facilitation of our meetings with Libyans in these difficult times. At all levels, the Mission is engaging with Libyan stakeholders to counsel calm and to build the bridges which will ease the political process.

In Ghat, on 18 August, the relatively high turn-out recorded in the municipal elections, despite COVID-19-related constraints, demonstrated the Libyans determination to exercise their rights to elect their representatives. It is therefore not surprising that spoilers would seek to sabotage further such exercises, as happened in the city of Traghen on 25 August when an armed group affiliated with the LAAF forced the suspension of the vote. These green shoots of democracy must be protected. I salute the tireless efforts of the Central Commission of Municipal Council Elections as it continues preparations for elections in a new group of municipalities, starting with Misrata tomorrow.

On the military front, UNSMIL continued discussions with delegations of both sides under the auspices of the 5+5 Joint Military Commission and moved past areas of convergence identified previously to adjust to new dynamics on the ground. As of today, and since 8 July, we have convened three virtual rounds of discussions with the GNA and two with the LAAF delegation in an attempt to urge for immediate de-escalation. I encouraged both sides to consider the incremental establishment of a demilitarized area starting with Sirte, supported by a comprehensive set of confidence-building measures. This proposal would also comprise a small international-Libyan joint ceasefire monitoring mechanism. While divergences of views and distrust between both sides remain high, I call on you to encourage the parties to refrain from insisting on unrealistic and maximalist positions and to participate in good faith, for the sake of their country.

Addressing the economic drivers of the conflict is at the core of any hope for a sustainable settlement. To create the necessary confidence required for a frank and open discussion over the transparent allocation of resources, UNSMIL had long pushed for an international audit of both branches of the Central Bank of Libya, as requested by Prime Minister Serraj in a letter to the Secretary General in July 2018. I am pleased to report that, thanks to your support, the international financial review audit was launched on 1 August and is moving forward quickly. This process will advance efforts to unify the two branches of the Central Bank of Libya, enhance accountability and create the transparency needed to inform discussions on the equitable management of revenue.

Mr. President, Excellencies,

I remind you that 16 months ago, we were on the cusp of a broadly gauged Libyan national conference that would have established the framework to replace the current divided political structures with one that would have more clearly reflected the legitimate aspirations of all Libyans. That effort was upended by those who falsely believed they could achieve their aims through the use of force. After 14 months of needless death and destruction, they did not succeed. The use of oil as a weapon of war has only exacerbated the misery of the Libyan people and propelled the country towards economic and social collapse. It is therefore clear that the only path out is through dialogue and compromise leading to a comprehensive political settlement and culminating in national elections.

Thank You.

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Briefing of Acting SRSG Stephanie Williams to the Security Council on the situation in Libya - Libya - ReliefWeb

London, UK - A staggering 48 billion looks set to be lost from the French economy due to the collapse of international travel during 2020, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).

WTTC, which represents the global Travel & Tourism private sector, says the massive decline in the number of international travellers and tourists visiting France due to the COVID-19 pandemic, could result in international visitor spending dropping by a staggering 82%.

This catastrophic loss to the French economy equates to a shortfall of 131.2 million a day, or 918 million a week, to the country's economy.This deeply worrying news comes after the UK removed France from its quarantine free list, with British holidaymakers returning from France now needing to quarantine for 14 days when arriving back to the UK.

This blanket measure will have a massive economic impact on both French and the UK economies, with WTTC predicting the UK is set to lose 22 billion from its economy due to the collapse of international travel this year.

The severe impact on the French Travel & Tourism sector is laid bare by WTTC as the economic fallout from coronavirus continues to ravage the sector. More than two million jobs (2.1m) in France supported by Travel & Tourism, are at risk of being lost in a 'worst case' scenario mapped out by WTTC economic modelling.

Across Europe, in the 'worst case' scenario, that figure rises to more than 29m (29.5m) Travel & Tourism jobs.

This comes as France recently announced considering imposing quarantine to UK travellers which would have a bigger impact in both economies.

According to WTTC's 2020 Economic Impact Report, during 2019, Travel & Tourism was responsible for 2.7m million jobs, or 9.4% of the country's total workforce. It also generated more than 205 billion GDP, or 8.5% to the French economy.

WTTC and its Members recently called upon President Emmanuel Macron and the other leaders of the G7 countries, urging for a coordinated approach be taken in leading the recovery response to the crisis.

Gloria Guevara, WTTC President & CEO, said: "The economic pain and suffering caused to millions of households across France, who are dependent upon a thriving Travel & Tourism sector for their livelihoods, is evident from the latest WTTC figures."

"The lack of international travel caused by the pandemic could wipe out 48 billion from the French economy alone - a loss of 131.2 million a day - from which it could take many years to recover. It could also threaten the position of Paris as one of the world's premier hubs for business and leisure travel."

"International coordination to re-establish transatlantic travel would provide a vital boost to the Travel & Tourism sector. It would benefit airlines and hotels, travel agents and tour operators and revitalise the millions of jobs in the supply chain which are dependent upon international travel."

"We urgently need to replace the ever-changing quarantine measures with rapid, comprehensive and cost-effective test and trace programmes at departure points across the country. This investment will be significantly less than the impact of blunt quarantines which have devastating and far-reaching socio-economic consequences."

"Targeted test and tracing will also rebuild consumer confidence to travel. It will enable the restoration of vital 'air corridors' between countries and regions with similar COVID-19 case rates."

"A quick turnaround test and trace system in place for all departing passengers means the government could consider reinstating travel between France and major international hubs such as London, New York, Dubai and others. Restoring business class travel between the world's top financial centres, would act as an engine to help kick-start the economic global recovery."

WTTC analysis of international travel spending in France during 2019 reveals it reached 58.6 billion, accounting for 34% of the total tourism spend in Germany. Domestic travel spending was last year responsible for the other 66%.

A further breakdown reveals how crucial spending from international travellers during 2019 was to the French economy. Every month it accounted for 4.9 billion or 1.1 billion a week - and 160 million a day.

Between 2016 and 2018, the largest inbound source markets to France were travellers from Germany and the UK, each accounting for 14% of all international arrivals, with Belgium coming in third with 12%, and Italy and Switzerland in joint fourth place with 8% each.

Data for 2018, which is the most up-to-date available, shows how dependent Paris in particular is on international visitor spending. It accounted for almost three quarters (74%) of all tourism spending in the city, with domestic tourists making up the remaining 26%.

The US was the most important source market for the city with 19% of arriving visitors, with the UK in second place with 9% of arrivals.

WTTC is the body which represents the Travel & Tourism private sector globally. Members consist of CEOs of the world's Travel & Tourism companies, destinations, and industry organisations engaging with Travel & Tourism.

WTTC has a history of 25 years of research to quantify the economic impact of the sector in 185 countries. Travel & Tourism is a key driver for investment and economic growth globally. The sector contributes US$8.8 trillion or 10.4% of global GDP, and accounts for 319 million jobs or one in ten of all jobs on the planet.

For over 25 years, WTTC has been the voice of this industry globally. Members are the Chairs, Presidents and Chief Executives of the world's leading, private sector Travel & Tourism businesses, who bring specialist knowledge to guide government policy and decision-making and raise awareness of the importance of the sector.

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WTTC Says France Looks Set To Lose 48 Billion From Missing Tourists And Visitors Due To Pandemic - Hospitality Net

100 million a day being lost to the Italian economy

A devastating 36.7 billion looks set to be lost from the Italian economy due to the collapse of international travel during 2020, according to latest research conducted by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).

WTTC, which represents the global Travel & Tourism private sector, says the massive decline in the number of international travellers and tourists visiting Italy, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, could result in international visitor spending dropping by a staggering 82%.

This catastrophic loss to the Italian economy equates to a shortfall of 100 million a day, or 700 million a week, to the country's economy.

WTTC and its Members recently called upon Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and the other leaders of the G7 countries, to urge for a coordinated approach to be taken to lead the global recovery response to the crisis.

The harsh impact on Italian Travel & Tourism is laid bare by WTTC as the economic fallout from coronavirus continues to burn its way through the sector. Some 2.8 million jobs in Italy which are supported by Travel & Tourism are at risk of being lost in a 'worst case' scenario mapped out by WTTC economic modelling.

Across Europe, in the 'worst case' scenario, that figure rises to more than 29m (29.5m) Travel & Tourism jobs.

According to WTTC's 2020 Economic Impact Report, during 2019, Travel & Tourism was responsible for almost 3.5 million jobs in Italy, or 14.9% of the country's total workforce. It also generated 232.9 billion GDP, or 13% to the Italian economy.

Gloria Guevara, WTTC President & CEO, said: 'The economic pain and suffering caused to millions of households across Italy, who are dependent upon a thriving Travel & Tourism for their livelihoods, is evident from our latest shocking figures.

'The lack of international travel caused by the pandemic could wipe out more than 36 billion from the Italian economy alone - a loss of 100 million a day - from which it could take many years to recover. It could also threaten Milan's position as global financial powerhouse for business, and Rome as a major leisure destination.

'International coordination to re-establish transatlantic travel would provide a vital boost for the Travel & Tourism sector. It would benefit airlines and hotels, travel agents and tour operators and revitalise the millions of jobs in the supply chain which are dependent upon international travel.'

'We must replace any stop-start quarantine measures with rapid, comprehensive and cost-effective test and trace programmes at departure points across the country. This investment will be significantly less than the impact of blunt quarantines which have devastating and far-reaching socio-economic consequences.

'Targeted test and tracing will also rebuild the much-needed consumer confidence to travel. It will enable the restoration of vital 'air corridors' between countries and regions with similar COVID-19 case rates.

'A fast turnaround test and trace system in place for all departing passengers means the government could consider reinstating travel between Italy and major international hubs, a move which would help kick-start the economic global recovery.

WTTC analysis of international travel spending in Italy during 2019 reveals it reached almost 45 billion, accounting for 24% of the total tourism spend in the country. Domestic travel spending last year was responsible for the other 76%.

A further breakdown reveals how crucial spending from international travellers during 2019 was to the Italian economy. Every month it accounted for 3.74 billion or 861 million a week - and 123 million a day.

Between 2016 and 2018, the largest inbound source markets to Italy were travellers from the Germany, accounting for one in five (20%) of all international arrivals, with the US and France both coming in second with 8%, and the UK in third place with 6%.

Data for 2018, which is the most up-to-date available, shows how Rome is dependent on international visitor spending. It accounted for 66% of all tourism spending in the city, with domestic tourists making up the remaining 34%.

The US was the most important source market for the city with 18% of arriving visitors, with Spain in second place with 8% of arrivals, the UK in third place with 7% of arrivals, and Germany in fourth position with 6%.

The loss of this international visitor spending could have a profound long-term impact on the Italian capital for years to come.

According to WTTC's 2020 Economic Impact Report, during 2019, Travel & Tourism was responsible for one in 10 jobs (330 million total), making a 10.3% contribution to global GDP and generating one in four of all new jobs.

Ends

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Italy looks set to lose more than 36 billion from missing tourists and visitors due to pandemic, says WTTC - Marketscreener.com

In my maiden speech in Parliament in 2011, I said that all debates in this House will always be guided by one question: "How can we best ensure the survival and success of Singapore, and improve the lives of Singaporeans?"

We have over the years examined this question in different ways.

The question has now become more critical than ever. We began 2020 full of hope, having just commemorated our Bicentennial last year. None of us could have foreseen what was to come - the whole of humanity locked in by a virus; millions of people infected, and lives upended; the global economy plunged into the worst recession since the Great Depression; and the ways we earn a living, go about our lives, and interact with one another turned on their head.

In Singapore, we mounted a swift and robust response. To protect lives, we imposed the circuit breaker. To protect livelihoods, we are doing all that we can to keep our workers in jobs, preserve the core capabilities of our businesses and support households during this difficult period. We committed around $100 billion to fight the pandemic and safeguard our people and businesses from the fallout.

But as a small and open economy, we cannot defy the full force of this global crisis. We have to tackle these challenges amid the underlying shifts that predated Covid-19.

There is a backlash against free trade and sharpening nativist instincts, because the costs and benefits of globalisation have been unevenly distributed. Technology and innovation are reshaping the nature of work, disrupting jobs and businesses. These stresses have in turn caused societies to be polarised... The uncertainties created by Covid-19 have only accelerated these shifts.

To compound matters, governments around the world have financed massive stimulus packages through borrowing, putting an even greater burden on future generations.

It is against this sombre backdrop that we open our 14th Parliament. As the President said in her speech, we are at an inflection point in our history. Now, more than ever, we must ask: How can we best ensure the survival and success of Singapore, and improve the lives of Singaporeans in these unprecedented times?

We can answer this in one line: Adapt to change, but stay true to our values.

Change will leave us behind if we stand still. That we must adapt is a given.

Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat yesterday said Singapore must take a more integratedapproach to economic transformation, redouble efforts to develop every Singaporean to hisfullest potential, boost pathfinding capacity to find new bright spots and seek new ways tobe a vital node in the world. PHOTO: GOV.SG

What will define this term of Government is how we will adapt, that will build a better life for our people. Even as we keep pace with change, we must stay true to the values that have enabled us to progress all these years.

By embracing change with courage and confidence, we build our capacity to adapt. By staying true to our values, we strengthen our sense of common purpose. By working in close partnership, we advance as Singapore Together.

I will speak about how we need to adapt as an economy, a society and a people.

Singapore's economic story over the decades has been one of constant adaptation, restructuring and transformation. Our latest refresh started in 2016, with Industry Transformation Maps to spur sector-specific adaptation throughout our economy.

The effort has borne fruit. Productivity and wages were going up before Covid-19 struck. Industry players have also found new ways of working together to raise the competitiveness of their industries.

Indeed, bearing fruit is not just a metaphor here. I met a fruit seller Jun Sheng, better known as "Ah Boy" at Block 58 Marketplace in Bedok. In addition to operating a physical stall, he sells fruits online and even takes orders via WhatsApp. Many hawkers and small businesses islandwide are also going digital. We must do what we can to support our workers and business, big and small, and make such innovation pervasive.

While we have made progress in industry transformation, we must look ahead and prepare ourselves for even faster and more disruptive change. To emerge stronger as an economy, we must strengthen our capacity in four areas.

First, we must take an even more integrated and coordinated approach to economic transformation.

The economy is very complex, with multiple stakeholders. In our system, tripartism - the Government, businesses and the labour movement working together - has been a tremendous source of strength.

Two years back, as chairman of the National Research Foundation, I visited the Netherlands to learn more about its "triple helix" model of innovation - where government, businesses and academia work together to build knowledge, test prototypes and scale innovation.

Like some research triangles in the United States, the Dutch have done well. This model is being expanded to incorporate other dimensions such as societal responsibility and environmental protection.

In essence, the economy is very complex in how it allocates resources, generates innovative ideas, and in how returns are distributed across multiple stakeholders. While there is a competitive element in this, there are also benefits to be gained from working together for shared prosperity.

Singapore can build on our tripartite partnership to be a test bed that creates deeper linkages with an expanded set of stakeholders - including our education and research institutions, our community groups, and interested partners from around the world. By doing so, we can create good jobs for our people and new opportunities for entrepreneurs.

Second, we must redouble our efforts to develop everyone to his or her fullest potential. In this way, our people can take on new opportunities and flourish in their chosen pursuits. We need a holistic approach for this that spans the lifetime of individuals, from birth to pre-school to schools, all the way to lifelong learning as part of SkillsFuture. I am glad our workers are embracing upskilling, with about half a million taking part in SkillsFuture programmes last year.

And we have to explore new possibilities for developing our people fully.

Third, we must strengthen our pathfinding capacity to find new bright spots amid economic disruption.

Four months ago, we set up the Emerging Stronger Taskforce to identify and seize new opportunities in emerging trends. The task force has made good progress and commissioned seven Alliances for Action. These industry-led coalitions to pilot ideas quickly represent a new, action-oriented approach to pursue specific growth areas.

The ideas being explored are promising. They range from environmental sustainability to smart commerce, supply chain digitalisation and the use of robotics. These can create new growth markets for our businesses and good jobs for Singaporeans.

We will invest in incubating and accelerating start-ups, and supporting established companies to expand their R&D to build competitive strengths. Such a vibrant innovation ecosystem will build up our path-finding capabilities.

Fourth, we must find new ways to be a vital node, with rich and deep interconnections with the rest of the world.

As a small city-state, being open is our strength and opportunity. Unlike other major cities, we do not have domestic hinterlands that buffer us against shocks. We cannot take for granted that, in a post-Covid-19 world, we can continue to be the same kind of hub that we used to be.

We must therefore forge new forms of connections, such as digital economy agreements, while deepening our linkages with regional markets to ride on Asia's potential.

We must also remain open to investment and talent from around the world. In this economic climate, we understand that many Singaporeans are anxious about their livelihoods. Our starting point is that our economic strategies must serve the interests of Singaporeans. The foreign investments we attract must create meaningful jobs for our people and strengthen our corporate ecosystem. Singaporeans must receive fair consideration at the workplace.

We are therefore adapting our manpower policies, including our Employment Pass and S Pass policies, to the changing circumstances, to ensure that Singaporeans' interests are upheld. But to emerge stronger, we must resist any temptation to turn inwards. We cannot close ourselves to the world, or make foreigners unwelcome in our society.

We must always serve the interest of Singaporeans. The best way is to ensure that this little red dot - with no natural resources of any kind, but with a determined, hardworking, forward-looking people - is to remain useful and relevant to the world.

We do this by keeping our economy vibrant and competitive, so that Singaporeans and other people choose to be here, to invest and do business, thereby creating good jobs and opportunities for all of us. Mr Patrick Tay (a labour MP who is National Trades Union Congress assistant secretary-general) is right that we should create even stronger linkages in the form of skills maps, job redesign, and the retraining and reskilling of our workers, to take on new jobs.

In particular, we must also make a deliberate effort to develop Singaporeans for leadership roles in companies, so that they can take Singapore forward. Singapore, as a regional operational headquarters, has what it takes. Singaporeans, in a multiracial, multi-religious, multicultural environment, can connect with people all around us and build deep linkages with our friends in the region. This is something that we will pursue.

At the same time, we must not undermine the essence of what has made us successful. Even as we adapt to a changing world, we must stay true to our values - our sense of unity as a people, our composition as a multicultural society. We must stay true to our value to the world, as an oasis of harmony in this fractious world.

Even as we evolve our economic strategies, our society too is facing new challenges and needs to continue to adapt, to sustain the promise of progress for every Singaporean. We must not let change lead to polarisation.

In the early days of our development, our economy was growing strongly. A rising tide lifted all boats, and most Singaporeans saw their lives improve by leaps and bounds. We invested in our people so that they could adapt and grow with our economy.

As our economy matured, we also strengthened our social safety nets. For example, we improved healthcare affordability, through MediShield Life and Chas (Community Health Assist Scheme), and provided extra support for the Pioneer and Merdeka generations.

We uplifted the wages of our lower-wage workers through Workfare and the Progressive Wage Model. Our social spending has tripled over the last 15 years and this is set to rise further as our population ages.

Looking ahead, our economy will change at a much more rapid pace.

Disruption to jobs will be more common with the greater adoption of technology, such as automation and remote work. We must therefore take an integrated view of our economic and social policies. As our labour movement puts it, a job is the best form of welfare for our people. The Government will continue to invest in our people, match them to new opportunities and bring out the best in all Singaporeans. This way, we will keep social mobility alive.

At the same time, with major changes in the economy and labour market, we will need to adapt our social safety nets and keep inequality in check.

More workers will fall on hard times and we need to enable them to adjust and bounce back through this crisis and beyond. Some Singaporeans are also taking part in the "gig" economy, taking on a wide range of jobs, either part-time or full-time. So our support for self-employed persons will have to evolve accordingly. We must continue to uplift our lower-wage workers and enable our older workers to continue working, if they wish to.

Various ideas have been proposed on how we can do this, such as a minimum wage, universal basic income and unemployment insurance. The Government will keep an open mind to all these ideas. But we must also recognise there are no magic bullets. Each of these ideas has its merits as well as unintended effects. We have to consider the trade-offs and be clear about what works for our context and our times.

Demands on our social safety nets are increasing, at a time when our revenue base is growing more slowly and with sharper competition for tax revenue across countries. So I must caution against looking for what may appear to be "costless solutions" - somehow, someone else will have to pay for these schemes.

There are trade-offs. If we want higher social spending, taxes will have to go up. Or it will mean spending more at the expense of future generations, like what many countries are doing by raising debt. We must never forget that we have provided almost $100 billion of support for our people and businesses this year, without incurring a single cent of debt, because we were able to fund more than half of this using past reserves.

At the same time, while we must strengthen our social safety nets, we must do so in a way that reinforces, and not undermines, an individual's efforts. A strong compact maintains a balance between the roles of the individual, family, community and the Government, and helps us better cope with change together.

Indeed, a social safety net cannot become a set of shackles. It should not hold down those who started with less. It should not create dependency such that people who get fish for today never learn how to fish for food tomorrow. It should not breed an entitled class who asks: "What more can you do for me?"

A well-designed social safety net protects the vulnerable, invests in human and societal capital, and provides a means for those who fall down to bounce back. It gives hope and builds confidence. It believes in people and lifts the human spirit. It supports every generation to have aspirations and dreams, and for everyone to ask: "What more can we do for one another?"

As MPs debate how we can strengthen our support for Singaporeans, let's keep in mind how new enhancements can be funded equitably and sustainably over time, and strengthen our people's capacity to not only succeed throughout life, but also help others succeed too. These are the values we must strengthen even as we adapt.

How we can best ensure the survival and success of Singapore, and improve the lives of Singaporeans depends on how well we adapt to change. As we adapt, and in some cases make major adjustments because the circumstances we face have changed significantly, we must stay rooted to our values and identity, and above all, our unity as one people.

I have been encouraged to see how Covid-19 has strengthened our sense of common purpose and brought out the best in us. Many have stepped up to support others. One example is the Masks Sewn With Love project, a community effort that has sewn more than 250,000 masks for vulnerable families.

This sense of unity, through both good times and bad, is rooted in the values enshrined in our Pledge and the distinct Singaporean identity we have evolved through the years.

It will take more effort to maintain this sense of common purpose as our society becomes more diverse. Our society will face new differences along the lines of identity, socio-economic status and political beliefs. There will always be different perspectives on subjects like race, language and religion, and the rights and obligations of citizenship.

It is essential that we rise above our differences and find common ground.

Occasional setbacks need not trip us in our perseverence to continue to make progress. Harmony in diversity will always be a work in progress. We may not always agree, but we cannot afford to let our disagreement turn into division.

Otherwise, change will cause a rupture in society, as we have seen elsewhere. The better we adapt to change and stay true to our values, the stronger we can emerge from this and future crises. The stronger we are at home, the more confident we can be to stake our place in the world and create value with others. This has been our formula for survival and success.

We are determined to uphold a rules-based global order, which has taken us to where we are today. As a small nation that threatens no country, we want to be friends with all and to work with all.

We are both a city-state and a global metropolis. Maintaining this "dual identity" will not be easy. But as long as we are clear about our values and what holds us together, it will be a source of strength that opens up new opportunities. This is our Singapore premium. Let us continue to work with like-minded partners to build a better world, for Singaporeans, for people around the world and for our future generations.

Since our independence, we have weathered one crisis after another, from the withdrawal of British forces and the ensuing massive unemployment, to the 1973 oil crisis, Asian financial crisis, Sars, 2001 IT bubble collapse and the global financial crisis.

All of us in our 50s and older would have lived through these turbulent periods. Each time, Singaporeans would have been called upon to show fortitude and resilience, and work in unity with our fellow citizens. And each time, we have risen to the challenge, adapted and emerged stronger.

The Covid-19 pandemic could be our most severe test so far. To overcome this crisis, we will have to once again draw upon and build on this capacity to adapt and remain united and stand true to our values. We can navigate this period of great uncertainty and change, but our politics must set the right tone for the rest of society

This House must fulfil its duty to articulate and debate policy options, to build a better life for our people and to advance Singapore's place in the world. This is the mandate that has been entrusted to us by Singaporeans. I trust that all of us, whether in Government or the Opposition, will share this common sense of mission, to serve in the best interests of Singaporeans and Singapore.

My colleagues and I in Government have listened to the voices of our people. We have heard and share our peoples' anxieties. We acknowledge the concerns and unhappiness that some have voiced. As the world and our society changes, there will be a greater divergence of views. We will continue to understand your concerns and improve your lives. We will have to adapt to these changes but stay true to the values. The same values that have enabled us to stay united and succeed against the odds.

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DPM Heng: S'pore must adapt to change but stay true to its values - The Straits Times

The Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing global economic crisis revealed a very troubling fact: the world is unprepared for food security. The complex global systems that were created in the era of accelerated globalization are threatening to collapse: Leading food producers have placed limitations on the export of agricultural goods from their territory, disturbances and interruptions have been encountered along the entire global supply chains from production in the field to the international marketing of food, the decline in demand and buying-power due to the global economic recession, shortage of farm-hands and the contraction of disease amongst workers in the food-packing factories.

But what is important to emphasize is that we still have not truly distanced ourselves from the danger of hunger and the interruption in the global food supply mechanisms. At the same time, the phenomena of rising food prices, the lack of foreign currency for purchasing food on the global market, market disturbances etc., continue vigorously. Tens of millions of people in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and other areas of the world have joined the 820 million people that, prior to the pandemic, were already defined as under-nourished and in danger of hunger or starvation. The World Bank estimates that approximately 40 million people have entered the category of immediate risk in western Africa alone. U.N. reports, and first among them, that of the International Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), warn of a rising threat of hunger, and the U.N. called upon the international community to maintain open commerce and to refrain from national protectionist policies.

In its annual report on The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020, the UN projections show that the world is not on track to achieve Zero Hunger by 2030 and, despite some progress, most indicators are also not on track to meet global nutrition targets. The food security and nutritional status of the most vulnerable population groups is likely to deteriorate further due to the health and socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This situation raises the question of what we can do to prevent a global food crisis which may result in hunger, political and security instability and rampant migration. Without doubt, international trade systems for food and agricultural necessities such as fertilizers, machinery, fuel, etc. must be kept open and functioning. At the same time, states would do well if they increased their local food production capacity. This food, in addition to supplying caloric needs, must be healthy, nutritious and available to everyone and at an affordable price. For this, local farming requires significant incentives and support in order to increase its production and variety.

The State of Israel, having proved itself over a period of decades an expert in successful innovative farming in some of the most challenging desert and drought-prone areas of the world, can be a supplier of quick, efficient and low-cost solutions for these needs. Drip-irrigation is one of the best examples of this. Today most of the agricultural crops the world over are still grown by dry farming, i.e. farming that is reliant on rain for field irrigation. Moving to irrigated farming would increase the crop yield, would save water and greenhouse gases, and would, over time, create food security. Vegetables, for instance, could be grown a number of times during the year via drip-irrigation as opposed to only once a year when relying on natural precipitation during the rainy season.

Precise agriculture, which supplies all plant needs on an almost individual basis, is another example. Today, sensors are capable of informing precisely how much water and fertilizer is required for each tree and from what diseases it is suffering, and accordingly, an individualized treatment, which is often administered via drones or other methods. The use of satellites for information gathering and remote sensing, computerized greenhouses and continuous monitoring of temperature, humidity and pests/insects from afar also increase agricultural crop yields and create more food.

Everyone knows that without water, nothing can be grown, and in arid Israel, unlimited solutions have been found and implemented. Such an example is the use of purified sewage water for farming, or even the use of saline water; leak prevention and/or the identification of their source in water supply systems; and Hydroponics a form of farming that allows for growing vegetables in water. Water conservation, irrigation monitoring and many other solutions developed in Israel can be implemented relatively easily and at low costs throughout the world.

Knowing the challenges Ghana is facing with Food Security, the state of Israel has put the Agriculture sector at the prime priority of its work in Ghana. Among our activities in the Agriculture sector, Israel has received for the second year a group of 70 agricultural students for 11 months practical training in the Agrostudies program. A new group of 70 students will be sent to Israel when we go back to normal. We also continue in our capacity-building programs, but holding them on-line.

Innovation in agriculture is also an important sector to promote and so the Embassy held the maiden edition of the Israel Green Innovation Competition for Start-ups and trained senior officials in the innovation field as we identify Ghana with a conducive environment for thriving innovators in Africa.

Our Trade and Economic Mission is encouraging more investments and more business between the countries in Agriculture. One of such was the GHrowIL Agriculture conference that brought to Ghana 18 Israeli companies to meet to key players in the Agriculture sector in Ghana for business. The great partnerships forged at this event have led to bilateral business agreements in diverse areas of Agriculture Technology.

In conclusion, the Covid-19 crisis is still very far from being resolved and we will continue to experience its ramifications in almost every realm of our daily lives. Therefore, it is more important today than ever before to understand the fragility of the global food supply chains, the vulnerability of food security to different sources of disturbance, and to increase local food production in a wide-scale. Israel would be both happy and honored to share its rich experience and knowledge in these areas with anyone interesting in learning.

The author H. E. Shani Cooper-Zubida is the Israeli Ambassador to Ghana, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

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Shani Cooper-Zubida: Global food security in the shadow of Covid-19 Does the solution for local food production lie with Israel? - Myjoyonline.com

THE COVID-19 GLOBAL pandemic has brought forward the future. It has brought about humanitys biggest challenge in a century, to choose between life and livelihoods. In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, banks have played a supporting role to clients and communities. Standard Chartered announced a commitment of US$1 billion globally to support companies in the health delivery supply chain to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, and an additional US$50 million to assist communities in presence markets, especially Africa.

Generally, banks have entered the COVID crisis much stronger and resilient than they did before the global nancial crisis of 2008. This resilience is owed in part to the raft of regulatory reforms and stronger supervision since 2008, aimed at ensuring adequate capital and liquidity buffers against market-wide stress and also to avoid future taxpayer bailouts. Bank resilience notwithstanding, there is a catch! Well, several!

Many jurisdictions have placed ghting this pandemic at par with war by employing emergency measures and massive scal stimulus packages to provide relief to businesses and households and hopefully to bring the public health crisis under control. Relative to Q1 2020, total lockdown is now perceived as a blunt instrument in responding to the pandemic due to its potential for economic destruction and jeopardizing livelihoods. There is some convergence of views towards recalibrating easing of lockdown alongside placing high emphasis on both corporate and individual responsibility to obey public health recommendations and to observe good hygiene.

As the world emerges from lockdown, the nature and shape of the recovery is an important variable. Whether the recovery is a V-shape, U-shape or a W- shape makes a world of a difference to how banks will respond. We are only beginning to understand and measure the true economic cost of the pandemic, transmitted through lockdown and the deleterious effects on growth and the viability of some sectors. Many companies around the world face the grim prospect of possible collapse, necessitating tough survival decisions on rationalizations, write-downs of asset values and other corporate actions.

National governments need to determine the right balance between restarting economic activity and growth without compromising the capacity of healthcare infrastructure. The ability to do so would in turn inuence the nature and shape of the recovery as well as which companies or sectors can survive the new reality, and which would fail. Then there is digitization. Digitization and the new ways of working will dene who stays competitive, productive and can survive. Almost every sector or industry and even governments will need to invest in digital solutions to future-proof their survival and relevance.

While banks certainly have a critical role to play during and post crisis, the reality is there is no certainty or clarity on how events might unfold. In the meantime, a better understanding of the nature, virulence and measures to conquer the invisible enemy remains elusive, thereby drawing parallels with the expression fog of war. The unfolding challenges and after-effects of the pandemic are not sequential or in any particular order. Neither will the responses be. Responses need to be diligent, intelligent and wise in order to safeguard the future. The pre-COVID bank resilience is a necessary and comforting condition but insufficient for post-COVID recovery unless banks themselves can successfully navigate the fog of this new war to avoid joining the casualty list that is beginning to grow around the world. They will certainly be dealing with elevated credit risk, strains to capital and liquidity and heightened operational and cyber security risk, among others. Livelihoods and economic security look fragile in the short run as the pandemic exposes cracks, ssures and chasms in the existing socio-economic order globally. This systemic stress could precipitate a repurposing of legacy political, economic, social and security arrangements by national governments which could be consequential to businesses recovery and viability, household incomes and social cohesion. For the banks, it becomes a waiting game!

Originally posted here:

THE FUTURE JUST ARRIVED: THE ROLE OF BANKS IN A POST-COVID WORLD - Forbes Africa

Opinions of Monday, 10 August 2020

Columnist: Kwaku Badu

John Dramani Mahama

Some of us, so to speak, were extremely dumbfounded listening to the Minority Caucuss 2020 electioneering campaign on Asempa FM on Thursday 6th August 2020, in which the NDC faithful gleefully sought to portray their flagbearer, Mahama, as the best custodian of Ghanas economy (emphasis mine).

But contrary to NDC operatives assertion, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has concluded in its 2019 country report that former President John Dramani Mahama will find it extremely difficult to convince discerning Ghanaians into accepting that he is the preferable manager of Ghanas economy, given his abysmal performance and the countrys fairly strong economic growth under President Akufo-Addo (see: 2020 election is yours to lose-EIU predicts NPP victory; myjoyonline.com/ghanaweb.com, 15/09/2019).

There is no gainsaying in stressing forcefully that following former President Mahamas election as NDCs 2020 flagbearer, the crucial questions the vast majority of Ghanaians have been asking somewhat poignantly are: can the NDCs Messiah redeem us from the supposedly bad governance? And, can the NDCs Messiah take us to the promise land?

Dearest reader, if you may remember, subsequent to former President Mahamas ponderous announcement of his intention to join the NDCs 2020 flagbearership race, several prominent NDC members and well-wishers came out and expressed grave concerns over the ex-presidents somewhat weird decision.

In fact, prominent people like Nunoo Mensah, Kojo Yankah, Ambassador Osei, amongst others suggested to Mahama to rescind his somewhat idiosyncratic decision.

What is more, the likes of Mr Bagbin, the MP for Nadoli Kaleo and the Mahamas competitor for the 2019 NDCs flagbearership race attributed the humiliating defeat of Mahama and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the 2016 general elections to bad governance (See: Mahama's boys bought V8, built mansions in 4 years Bagbin; myjoyonline.com/ghanaweb.com, 19/08/2018).

Back then, Mr Bagbin was reported to have quizzed passionately: Dont tell me that the boys that suddenly came closer to the president within four years can build mansions and buy land cruisers and you say there are no resources, where are they getting the money, their salaries?

The NDC stalwarts concerns stemmed from the fact that Ghanaians rejected former President Mahama massively in the 2016 election and therefore it will be politically suicidal for anyone to clamour for his return.

More so, the founder of NDC, former President Rawlings never agreed with the teeming supporters who were blindly clamouring for the return of the losing horses.

Take, for instance, prior to the 2016 electioneering campaign, we witnessed how the conspicuously unhappy former President Rawlings kept grumbling, shrieking and raising concerns about the rampant sleazes and corruption in the erstwhile NDC administration led by former President Mahama.

Ex-President Rawlings thus lamented: The principles of June 4 are not alien or has never been alien to mankind. They are no different from the most basic religious or human values. Probity, accountability and social justice would on any day liberate the overwhelming majority of our people from the bondage or difficulties they find themselves in.

The fight against corruption, greed and avarice has however been at great cost. Noble soldiers have died; noble civilians have died for it and so many of the noble ones have suffered and continue to suffer all kinds of indignities for their principles and convictions.

I want to remind people that we could not have possibly forgotten that Generals were executed. The greed, corruption and injustice of today is a thousand times more than what these Generals were executed for, and if we are unable to restore a firm measure of integrity into our dealings, then the blood of many would have been shed in vain.

Not too long ago I thought we heard the jockeys claiming the horses were responsible for this disgraceful failure while one of the horses was bold enough to lay the failure at the doorstep of the jockeys.

For me, we lost our masses because we betrayed the values of June 4. However if this horse jockey business cannot be resolved comprehensively, allowing integrity to prevail, then let both of them step aside and allow for fresh leaders with solid integrity to provide the needed leadership (Rawlings 2017; myjoyonline.com).

The all-important question we should be asking then is: who are the fresh leaders with solid integrity in NDC then?

Despite the critics irrevocable incertitude over Mahamas suitability to lead the country again, the NDC Delegates strangely gave Mahama the nod of affirmation to lead the party to the 2020 general elections.

But to the reflective critics, it is somewhat baffling to see former President Mahama and his apologists moving heaven and earth to return to the presidency almost four years after being voted out of power by discerning Ghanaians for his dreadful errors in judgement which brought about massive economic collapse.

In truth, the other contestants of the NDCs 2019 flagbearership race emitted vehemently that former President Mahama was the main reason NDC lost the 2016 election.

Unsurprisingly, however, a multitude of supporters within the NDC were in solidarity with the concerned presidential aspirants. The concerned supporters dreaded the talk of former President Mahama returning as the NDCs 2020 flagbearer.

Therefore, it came as no surprise at all when a group of organisers within the opposition NDC urged the National Executives of the party to allow Mr Alban Kingsford Sumana Bagbin to go unopposed in the 2019 flagbearership contest (See: Alban Bagbin must go unopposed NDC organisers; ghananewsagency.org/ghanaweb.com, 12/03/2018).

Back then, the spokesperson for the group, insisted somewhat vehemently that since corruption would be a key campaign theme in 2020, and the fact that former President Mahama administration had issues with corruption, Ghanaian voters would be forced to reject him if he (Mahama) was to be elected as the next flagbearer.

Suffice it to state that even though the loyalists of the other presidential aspirants held the preponderance of the argument about former President Mahamas unsuitability for the 2020 flagbearership position, the diehard supporters somehow succeeded in their quest to have him as their presidential candidate.

It would, therefore, appear that the vast majority of the NDC loyalists have been living in a denial about former President Mahamas unpopularity and hence choosing him over the other presidential aspirants.

It is also quite ironic that despite Mahamas unpardonable coarse governance which brought about his humiliating defeat in the 2016 election, the Mahama loyalists are holding an elusive hope that they can present him and recapture power from NPP in 2020.

Whatever the case, I, for one, do not envision former President Mahamas imminent return to the presidency, judging from the dreadful errors in decision-making which brought about the huge economic collapse.

Let us face it, though, the unbridled corruption, the arrogance of power and the irreversible incompetence which culminated in economic collapse are still fresh in the memories of discerning Ghanaians.

Unfortunately, however, the brassbound Mahama loyalists do not want to acknowledge the fact that Ghanas economy was in such a terrible state because a large portion of the countrys scarce resources went down the drain from the mismanagement and the wanton sleazes and corruption perpetrated by the officials of the erstwhile Mahama administration.

There is no gainsaying the fact that discerning Ghanaians cannot so soon forget the harsh economic conditions the Mahama government wilfully imposed on them. Indeed, those sad memories will long be stencilled on the mental sheets of discerning Ghanaians.

The all-important question one may ask the brassbound Mahama supporters is: where is the justification about former President Mahamas ability to steer Ghana to the right direction when a GH9.5 billion debt former President Kufuor left in 2009 rocketed to an incredible GH122.4 billion in just eight years?

How can the diehard supporters convince some of us about former President Mahamas capability to lead Ghana again when he woefully shrunk Ghanas GDP from $47 billion to $40 billion in five years?

How could Mahama supporters justify former President Mahamas suitability to lead the nation again when he abysmally dragged an economic growth of around 14 % in 2011 to a squeamish 3.4 % as of December 2016?

Didnt the much touted economic Messiah drag single digit inflation in 2012 to double figures by 2016(15.8%)?

By and large, the successive NDC governments have proven to be worst economic managers who can never improve upon the socio-economic standards of living of Ghanaians.

Whichever way you may choose to place the issue under discussion, Mahama has never been Ghanas economic Messiah, and some of us, as a matter of principle, do not see him as the best custodian of Ghanas economy.

K. Badu, UK.

k.badu2011@gmail.com

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Pardon me, Sirs, Mahama couldn't have been Ghana's economic Messiah, could he? - GhanaWeb