Its a sunny Tuesdaymorning in late March at IBMs Thomas    J. Watson Research Center. The corridor from the reception    area follows the long, curving glass curtain-wall that looks    out over the visitors parking lot to leafless trees covering a    distant hill in Yorktown Heights, N.Y., an hour north of    Manhattan. Walk past the podium from the Jeopardy!    episodes at which IBMs Watson smote the human champion of the    TV quiz show, turn right into a hallway, and youll enter a    windowless lab where a quantum computer is chirping away.  
    Actually, chirp isnt quite the right word. Its a somewhat    metallic sound, chush  chush  chush, thats made by    the equipment that lowers the temperature inside a so-called    dilution refrigerator to within hailing distance of absolute    zero. Encapsulated in a white canister suspended from a frame,    the dilution refrigerator cools a superconducting chip studded    with a handful of quantum bits, or qubits.  
    When it's running, this dilution refrigerator at IBMs Thomas    J. Watson Research Center is one of the coldest places in the    universe. To cool superconducting bits on a quantum computer    processor, it gets down to 15 millikelvin (-459F)colder than    outer space.  
    Photographer: Christopher Payne for Bloomberg Markets  
    Quantum computing has been around, in theory if not in    practice, for several decades. But these new types of machines,    designed to harness quantum mechanics and potentially process    unimaginable amounts of data, are certifiably a big deal. I    would argue that a working quantum computer is perhaps the most    sophisticated technology that humans have ever built, says    Chad Rigetti, founder and chief executive officer of    Rigetti Computing, a startup in    Berkeley, Calif. Quantum computers, he says, harness nature at    a level we became aware of only about 100 years agoone that    isnt apparent to us in everyday life.  
    Whats more, the potential of quantum computing is enormous.    Tapping into the weird way nature works could potentially speed    up computing so some problems that are now intractable to    classical computers could finally yield solutions. And maybe    not just for chemistry and materials science. With practical    breakthroughs in speed on the horizon, Wall Streets antennae are twitching.  
    The second investment that CME Group Inc.s    venture arm ever made was in 1QB Information Technologies Inc.,    a quantum-computing software company in Vancouver. From the    start at CME Ventures, weve been looking further ahead at    transformational innovations and technologies that we think    could have an impact on the financial-services industry in the    future, says Rumi Morales, head of CME Ventures LLC.  
    That 1QBit financing round, in 2015, was led by Royal Bank of    Scotland. Kevin Hanley, RBSs director of innovation, says    quantum computing is likely to have the biggest impact on    industries that are data-rich and time-sensitive. We think    financial services is kind of in the cross hairs of that    profile, he says.  
    Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is an investor in D-Wave Systems    Inc., another quantum player, as is In-Q-Tel, the CIA-backed    venture capital company, says Vern Brownell, CEO of D-Wave. The    Burnaby, B.C.-based company makes machines that do something    called quantum annealing. Quantum annealing is basically using    the quantum computer to solve optimization problems at the    lowest level, Brownell says. Weve taken a slightly different    approach where were actually trying to engage with customers,    make our computers more and more powerful, and provide this    advantage to them in the form of a programmable, usable    computer.  
    Marcos Lpez de Prado, a senior managing director at Guggenheim    Partners LLC whos also a scientific adviser at 1QBit and a    research fellow at the U.S. Department of Energys    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,    says its all about context. The reason quantum computing is    so exciting is its perfect marriage with machine learning, he    says. I would go as far as to say that currently this is the    main application for quantum computing.  
      Photographer: Christopher Payne for Bloomberg Markets    
    Part of that simply derives from the idea of a quantum    computer: harnessing a physical device to find an answer, Lpez    de Prado says. He sometimes explains it by pointing to the    video game Angry Birds. When you play it    on your iPad, the central processing units use some    mathematical equations that have been programmed into a library    to simulate the effects of gravity and the interaction of    objects bouncing and colliding. This is how digital computers    work, he says.  
    By contrast, quantum computers turn that approach on its head,    Lpez de Prado says. The paradigm for quantum computers is    this: Lets throw some birds and see what happens. Encode into    the quantum microchip this problem: These are your birds and    where you throw them from, so whats the optimal trajectory?    Then you let the computer check all possible solutions    essentiallyor a very large combination of themand come back    with an answer, he says. In a quantum computer, theres no    mathematician cracking the problem, he says. The laws of    physics crack the problem for you.  
    The fundamental building blocksof our world are quantum    mechanical. If you look at a molecule, says Dario Gil, vice    president for science and solutions at IBM Research, the    reason molecules form and are stable is because of the    interactions of these electron orbitals. Each calculation    in thereeach orbitalis a quantum mechanical calculation. The    number of those calculations, in turn, increases exponentially    with the number of electrons youre trying to model. By the    time you have 50 electrons, you have 2 to the 50th power    calculations, Gil says. Thats a phenomenally large number, so    we cant compute it today, he says. (For the record, its    1.125 quadrillion. So if you fired up your laptop and started    cranking through several calculations a second, it would take a    few million years to run through them all.) Connecting    information theory to physics could provide a path to solving    such problems, Gil says. A 50-qubit quantum computer might    begin to be able to do it.  
    Landon Downs, president and co-founder    of 1QBit, says its now becoming possible to unlock the    computational power of the quantum world. This has huge    implications for producing new materials or creating new drugs,    because we can actually move from a paradigm of discovery to a    new era of quantum design, he says in an email. Rigetti, whose    company is building hybrid quantum-classical machines, says    one moonshot use of quantum computing could be to model    catalysts that remove carbon and nitrogen from the    atmosphereand thereby help fix global warming. (Bloomberg Beta    LP, a venture capital unit of Bloomberg LP, is an investor in    Rigetti Computing.)  
    The quantum-computing community hums with activity and    excitement these days. Teams around the worldat startups,    corporations, universities, and government labsare racing to    build machines using a welter of different approaches to    process quantum information. Superconducting qubit chips too    elementary for you? How about trapped ions, which have brought    together researchers from the University of    Maryland and the National Institute of Standards and    Technology? Or maybe the topological approach that Microsoft    Corp. is developing through an international effort called    Station Q? The aim is to harness a    particle called a non-abelian anyonwhich has not yet    been definitively proven to exist.  
    These are early days, to be sure. As of late May, the number of    quantum computers in the world that clearly, unequivocally do    something faster or better than a classical computer remains    zero, according to Scott Aaronson, a professor of computer    science and director of the Quantum Information Center at the    University of Texas at Austin. Such a signal event would    establish quantum supremacy. In Aaronsons words: That we    dont have yet.  
    Yet someone may accomplish the feat as soon as this year. Most    insiders say one clear favorite is a group at Google Inc. led by John    Martinis, a physics professor at the University of California    at Santa Barbara. According to Martinis, the groups goal is to    achieve supremacy with a 49-qubit chip. As of late May, he    says, the team was testing a 22-qubit processor as an    intermediate step toward a showdown with a classical    supercomputer. We are optimistic about this, since prior chips    have worked well, he said in an email.  
    The idea of usingquantum mechanics to process information    dates back decades. One key event happened in 1981, when    International Business Machines Corp. and MIT co-sponsored a    conference on the physics of computation at the universitys    Endicott House in Dedham, Mass. At the conference,    Richard Feynman, the famed physicist,    proposed building a    quantum computer. Nature isnt classical, dammit, and if you    want to make a simulation of nature, youd better make it    quantum mechanical, he said in his talk. And by golly, its a    wonderful problem, because it doesnt look so easy.  
    He got that part right. The basic idea is to take advantage of    a couple of the weird properties of the atomic realm:    superposition and entanglement. Superposition is the    mind-bending observation that a particle can be in two states    at the same time. Bring out your ruler to get a measurement,    however, and the particle will collapse into one state or the    other. And you wont know which until you try, except in terms    of probabilities. This effect is what underlies    Schrdingers cat,    the thought-experiment animal thats both alive and dead in a    box until you sneak a peek.  
    Sure, bending your brain around that one doesnt come    especially easy; nothing in everyday life works that way, of    course. Yet about 1 million experiments since the early 20th    century show that superposition is a thing. And if    superposition happens to be your thing, the next step is    figuring out how to strap such a crazy concept into a harness.  
    An IBM quantum-computing processor mounted on a circuit board.    The silicon chip in the center contains several quantum bits,    or qubits.  
    Photographer: Christopher Payne for Bloomberg Markets  
    Enter qubits. Classical bits can be a 0 or a 1; run a string of    them together through logic gates (AND, OR, NOT, etc.), and    youll multiply numbers, draw an image, and whatnot. A qubit,    by contrast, can be a 0, a 1, or both at the same    time, says IBMs Gil.  
    Ready for entanglement? (Youre in good company if you balk;    Albert Einstein famously rebelled against the idea, calling it    spooky action at a distance.) Well, lets say two qubits were    to get entangled; Gil says that would make them perfectly    correlated. A quantum computer could then utilize a menagerie    of distinctive logic gates. The so-called Hadamard gate, for    example, puts a qubit into a state of perfect superposition.    (There may be something called a square root of NOT gate, but lets    take a pass on that one.) If you tap the superposition and    entanglement in clever arrangements of the weird quantum gates,    you start to get at the potential power of quantum computing.  
    If you have two qubits, you can explore four states: 00, 01,    10, and 11. (Note that thats 4: 2 raised to the power 2.)    When I perform a logical operation on my quantum computer, I    can operate on all of this at once, Gil says. And the number    of states you can look at is 2 raised to the power of the    number of qubits. So if you could make a 50-qubit universal    quantum computer, you could in theory explore all of those    1.125 quadrillion statesat the same time.  
    What gives quantum computing its special advantage, says    Aaronson, of the University of Texas, is that quantum mechanics    is based on things called amplitudes. Amplitudes    are sort of like probabilities, but they can also be    negativein fact, they can also be complex numbers, he says.    So if you want to know the probability that something will    happen, you add up the amplitudes for all the different ways    that it can happen, he says.  
    The idea with a quantum computation is that you try to    choreograph a pattern of interference so that for each wrong    answer to your problem, some paths leading there have positive    amplitudes and some have negative amplitudes, so they cancel    each other out, Aaronson says. Whereas the paths leading to    the right answer all have amplitudes that are in phase with    each other. The tricky part is that you have to arrange    everything not knowing in advance which answer is the right    one. So I would say its the exponentiality of quantum states    combined with this potential for interference between positive    and negative amplitudesthats really the source of the power    of quantum computing, he says.  
    Cover artwork: Zachary Walsh  
    Did we mentionthat there are problems that a classical    computer cant solve? You probably harness one such difficulty    every day when you use encryption on the    internet. The problem is that its not easy to find the prime    factors of a large number. To review: The prime factors of 15    are 5 and 3. Thats easy. If the number youre trying to factor    has, say, 200 digits, its very hard. Even with your laptop    running an excellent algorithm, you might have to wait years to    find the prime factors.  
    That brings us to another milestone in quantum computing:    Shors algorithm. Published in 1994 by Peter Shor, now a math professor at    MIT, the algorithm demonstrated an approach that you could use to find the    factors of a big numberif you had a quantum computer, which    didnt exist at the time. Essentially, Shors algorithm would    perform some operations that would point to the regions of    numbers in which the answer was most likely to be found.  
    The following year, Shor also discovered a way to perform    quantum error correction. Then people really got the idea    that, wow, this is a different way of computing things and is    more powerful in certain test cases, says Robert Schoelkopf, director of the    Yale Quantum Institute and Sterling    professor of applied physics and physics. Then there was a    big upswelling of interest from the physics community to figure    out how you could make quantum bits and logic gates between    quantum bits and all of those things.  
    Two decades later, those things are here.      
    Asmundsson is editor of Bloomberg Markets.  
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Quantum Computing Might Be Here Sooner Than You Think ... - Bloomberg