Turkeys Erdogan to meet Putin in Russia: What to expect – Al Jazeera English

Istanbul, Turkey Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet his Russian counterpart on Friday in Sochi, after brokering a grain shipment deal between Moscow and Kyiv and as a new Turkish military intervention in Syria remains a possibility.

The summit with Vladimir Putin comes in the same week that a ship carrying Ukraine grain was able to set sail, the first since the conflict began, under an agreement between the warring sides arranged by the United Nations and Ankara.

The Turkish leaders international credentials have been bolstered by the agreement that resumes exports of Ukrainian and Russian agricultural products, easing the threat to global food security.

Erdogans trip his eighth to Russia since the start of 2019 follows a three-way meeting with Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran last month.

According to Ankara, regional and global developments will be on the agenda, as well as bilateral ties.

By virtue of its role in the grain deal, Turkey has succeeded in positioning itself as Russias diplomatic conduit to the international community, said Eyup Ersoy, visiting research fellow at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies, Kings College London.

This diplomatic rearrangement has shifted the relational asymmetry more in Turkeys favour and is expected to curtail, to some degree, Russian resistance against Turkish policies and initiatives in issues of common concern.

Analysts said Turkeys principal focus would be Moscows acquiescence or at least its lack of opposition to a Turkish military operation in northern Syria.

Russia, a key backer of President Bashar al-Assad, controls most of the north Syrian air space.

Erdogan raised the prospect of another operation against Syrian Kurdish fighters in May.

We are determined to eradicate the evil groups that target our national security from Syria, he reiterated during the Tehran summit two weeks ago.

Tal Rifaat and Manbij, cities west of the Euphrates river controlled by the Peoples Protection Units (YPG), are likely targets.

The Syrian group is linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has waged a 38-year armed uprising against Turkey. The PKK is considered a terror group by Turkey, the United States and the European Union.

Ankara has launched four cross-border operations into Syria since 2016 and controls land in the north with the goal of pushing away the YPG and establishing a 30-km (19-mile) secure zone.

An incursion in October 2019 into northeast Syria against the YPG drew widespread international condemnation.

Erdogan wants a green light for a military operation in Syria, said Kerim Has, a Turkish political analyst based in Moscow.

As we saw at the Tehran summit, Iran and Russia are against this operation but I think Erdogan can persuade Putin. Many things depend on the domestic situation in Turkey because Erdogan wants to launch the operation before the elections so he can consolidate at least a few percentage points in the vote.

Turkey is experiencing its worst economic crisis in two decades annual inflation hit 79.6 percent on Wednesday and Erdogan faces presidential and parliamentary elections by June next year.

The Kremlin could ease this instability, especially through natural gas. Russia supplied Turkey, which is dependent on energy imports, with 45 percent of its gas needs last year.

Turkey wants to keep its energy flows from Russia over the winter while maintaining economic cooperation to alleviate its difficulties and opening a [currency] swap agreement or getting investment from Russia, said Emre Caliskan, research fellow at the London-based Foreign Policy Centre.

Erdogan could present this as a victory to the Turkish public and perhaps alleviate the high food and energy prices that are likely to present a challenge in the coming elections.

However, it remains to be seen whether this would be enough to win over voters.

Weve seen these operations in Syria before and they dont do anything to help us, said Istanbul tobacconist Cemil Sener, 39.

People know these are just ploys to give the TV stations something positive to report. And I dont see how the Russians can really help our economy while they are being sanctioned by the West.

Erdogan and Putin may also discuss the possibility of Turkey sharing its armed aerial drone expertise with Russia.

Bayraktar TB2 drones sold to Ukraine have proved to be highly effective against Russian forces.

Last month, Erdogan reportedly said Putin had suggested setting up a drone factory in Russia during their Tehran meeting.

The Kremlin said last week that technical and military cooperation would be on the agenda at Sochi, an indication of Russias interest in procuring Bayraktars, according to Ersoy.

The recent news on the Russian interest to acquire Iranian drones is indicative of the urgency of the matter for Moscow, he added.

However, such a move would undermine the main plank of Turkish support for Ukraine as well as raise eyebrows among fellow NATO members.

Earlier this month, the head of Baykar, which makes the Bayraktar TB2 drones ruled out supplying them to Moscow.

If Turkey was to further participate with Russia in military matters at a time when Russia is considered the greatest threat to NATO, it would seriously damage relations with the West, Kerim Has said.

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Turkeys Erdogan to meet Putin in Russia: What to expect - Al Jazeera English

Ukraine pushes Putin body-double theory, points out this head feature – New York Post

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been deploying body doubles at recent public outings to hide health problems, said a Ukrainian military official who claimed that the decoys have different ears than the strongman.

Ukrainian military intelligence chief Major General Kyrylo Budanov suggested on Ukrainian television this week that Putins ears looked different across several of the leaders public appearances.

The picture, lets say, of the ears, is different. And its like a fingerprint, each persons ear picture is unique. It cannot be repeated, he said, according to a Newsweek account of Ukrainian TV.

But Budanov said that wasnt all that was amiss.

They [Putins body doubles] have different habits, different mannerisms, different gaits, sometimes even different heights, if you look closely, he said.

Budanovs theory about the body doubles, however, was not the first time that the rumor has been floated.

The International Business Times called it one of the more unusual conspiracy theories back in 2018, when a Twitter user cited three photographs of Putin across time to suggest that the ex-KGB spy was in fact three different people.

Budanov, this week, explained the supposed use of body doubles by pointing to widespread speculation that the Russian leader is gravely ill.

But the head of the CIAas well as Britains MI6 chiefboth cast doubt on those reports recently, stating at last months Aspen Security Forum that the Russian leader is apparently quite healthy.

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Ukraine pushes Putin body-double theory, points out this head feature - New York Post

Putin is banking on a failure of political will in the west before Russia runs out of firepower – The Guardian

The Russo-Ukrainian war is coming down to a race between the weakening political will of western democracies and the deteriorating military means of Vladimir Putins dictatorship. But this race will be a marathon, not a sprint. Sustaining that political will requires the kind of farsighted leadership which most democracies are missing. It calls for a recognition that our own countries are also, in some important sense, at war and a corresponding politics of the long haul.

Is this what you hear when you turn on your television in the United States (where I am now), Germany, Italy, Britain or France? Is this a leading topic in the Conservative party contest to decide Britains next prime minister, or the run-up to the Italian election on 25 September, or the campaign for the US midterm elections on 8 November? No, no and no. We are at war, I heard someone say recently on the radio; but he was an energy analyst, not a politician.

The fact that Ukrainian forces are preparing for a big counter-offensive to recapture the strategically vital city of Kherson shows what a combination of western arms and Ukrainian courage could achieve. US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (Himars) long-range multiple-launch rocket systems have enabled the Ukrainians to hit artillery depots, bridges and command posts far behind Russian lines. Russian forces have been redeployed from Donbas to defend against the expected offensive, thus further slowing the Russian advance in the east. Richard Moore, the head of Britains Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), observed recently that Russia might be about to run out of steam in Ukraine because of shortages of material and adequately trained troops. So Ukraine has a good chance of winning an important battle this autumn; but its still a long way from winning the war.

In his campaign to defeat not only Ukraine but also the west, Putin is counting on Russias two traditional wartime allies: Field Marshal Time and General Winter. The Russian leader is weaponising energy, reducing gas flows through the Nordstream 1 pipeline so Germany cant fully replenish its gas storage before the weather turns cold. Then he will have the option of turning off the gas entirely, plunging Germany and other dependent European countries into a desperate winter. High energy prices as a result of the war continue to turbocharge inflation in the west while keeping Putins own war chest filled with the billions of euros Germany and others are still paying for Russian gas and oil. Although a few grain ships are now leaving Odesa, his blockade of Ukrainian ports has caused a food price crisis across parts of the Middle East and Africa, resulting in much human misery and potentially in refugee flows and political chaos. Those, too, are Putins friends. Better still: the global south seems to blame this at least as much on the west as on Russia.

Putins cultural and political analysis of the west leads him to believe that time is on his side. In his view, the west is decadent, weakened by multiculturalism, immigration, the post-nationalism of the EU, LGBTQ+ rights, atheism, pacifism and democracy. No match, therefore, for carnivorous, martial great powers which still cleave to the old trinity of God, family and nation.

There are people in the west who agree with him, subverting western and European unity from within. Just read Viktor Orbns scandalous recent speech to an ethnic Hungarian audience in Romania, with its insistence that Hungarians should not become mixed race, its sweeping critique of the wests policy on Ukraine and its conclusion that Hungary needs to make a new agreement with the Russians.

Although the party likely to emerge victorious from next months Italian elections, the Fratelli dItalia, is the indirect successor of a neo-fascist party founded in 1946, it does at least support the western position on the war in Ukraine. But the leaders of the Fratellis probable coalition partners, the Legas Matteo Salvini and Forza Italias Silvio Berlusconi have a pro-Putin past and cannot be relied on to stand firm on Ukraine, as the current Italian prime minister, Mario Draghi, has done. In Germany, a plurality of those asked in a recent opinion poll (47%) said Ukraine should give up its eastern territories in return for peace. European voices calling on Ukraine to settle along those lines will only get louder as the war grinds on. (Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn recently joined them, although his intervention wont affect the strong cross-party consensus in Britain on support for Ukraine.)

Most important are the midterm elections in the US. If Donald Trump announces his presidential candidacy off the back of midterm election successes for his partisans, this could spell big trouble for what has so far been rare bipartisan consensus in the US on large-scale economic and military support for Ukraine. Notoriously reluctant to criticise Putin, Trump has told his supporters that the Democrats are sending another $40bn to Ukraine, yet Americas parents are struggling to even feed their children.

What would it take to prove the Russian leader wrong about the intrinsic weakness of western democracies? Rather a lot. The two largest armies in Europe are going to be slogging it out in Ukraine for months and quite probably years to come. Neither side is giving up; neither has a clear path to victory. All the current peace scenarios are unrealistic. When you cant begin to see how something is going to end, its unlikely to end soon.

To sustain Ukraines resistance and enable its army to recover lost territory requires weapon supplies on a scale that is large even for Americas military-industrial complex. For example, the US has reportedly already sent one-third of its entire stock of Javelin anti-tank missiles. According to a former deputy governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, the country needs a further $5bn a month in macroeconomic support just to ensure that its economy does not collapse close to double what it is currently getting. Thats before you even get to the challenge of postwar reconstruction, which may cost as much as $1tn.

If we stay the course, at scale, then Field Marshal Time will be on Ukraines side. Putins stocks of his most modern weapons and best trained troops have already been depleted. Keep up the pressure and military experts tell us he will be reaching back to 40-year-old tanks, and raw recruits. Western sanctions are hitting the hi-tech parts of his economy, needed for resupply. Could he compensate for the loss of skilled troops by a general mobilisation? Will China come to his aid with modern weapons supplies? Can he escalate? These questions have to be asked, of course, but the pressure would be back on him.

In democracies, leaders must justify and explain to voters this kind of large-scale, strategic commitment, otherwise they will not support it in the long run. Putin would then be proved right in his diagnosis of the weakness of democracy. Estonias Kaja Kallas is giving an example of such leadership, but then her people know all too much about Russia already. At the moment I dont see any leader of a major western democracy doing the same, except perhaps for Mario Draghi and hes leaving.

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Putin is banking on a failure of political will in the west before Russia runs out of firepower - The Guardian

Putin cant control his Ukraine cataclysm and the US must get ready – The Hill

As the Russo-Ukrainian war grinds into its sixth full month, we must reckon with strategic reality. Russia is losing ground, and its strategic position will only deteriorate in coming months; further military reversals will intensify its strategic quandary.Three possibilities exist revolution, a palace coup, or horizontal escalation and the United States should prepare for each.

Russia faces a structural strategic impediment that goes beyond war-planning errors and the inefficiencies of an authoritarian kleptocracy.It simply lacks the manpower and capabilities to conquer Ukraine, or even to hold its current strategic position.

Russias military planned its invasion poorly because of a series of flawed assumptions. Its high command believed Ukraine was brittle and feckless with a divided, poorly coordinated army; it assumed the West had no stomach for even a brief confrontation. Hence, only a push would be needed to topple resistance:A multi-axis invasion would overwhelm Ukraine and the West, President Volodymyr Zelensky would flee Kyiv, and by May 9 Putin could announce the reconstitution of the Soviet-Russian Empire, Belarus and Ukraine included.

In the event, Ukraine fought with skill and tenacity.Russias greatest success came in the south, where it appears Russiacompromised Ukrainian intelligence chiefsto facilitate its rapid capture of Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk. Russias invasion force, however, was too small to sustain a broad-front offensive for more than a few days.Although it captured much of Kherson and southern Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and took Mariupol following a vicious two-month siege, its momentum was spent.It withdrew from the north, abandoning its thrust towards Kyiv.

Since then, Russia has been stuck in an increasingly insoluble bind, stemming from two structural factors.It possesses tens of thousands of artillery pieces in various calibers, ranging from the 1960s-produced D-30 and 2S3 to the more modern Msta-b and 2S35, along with various multiple rocket launcher (MRL) systems. These systems are relatively inaccurate Russian MRLs lack the precision guidance of Western-designed HIMARS and M270s, while Russian barrel artillery cannot match the American M777, French Caesar or German PzH-2000 with modern shells.

Still, many Western analysts and the Kremlins propagandists insisted Russia would shatter Ukrainian defenses if properly concentrated.And Russia did concentrate: It amassed well over half of its deployed combat power in the Donbas.But observers who predicted Ukraines collapse after an attritional conflict in June forgot the Great War adage, Artillery conquers, infantry occupies.

Short of nuclear bombardment, infantry are needed to take even destroyed cities and pummeled fortifications.Russia lacks trained, disciplined infantry and the command structure to coordinate multiple assaults, break through and then encircle defenders. Its solution was to increase artillery bombardment while restricting its infantry assaults. Casualties remained high, but Russia avoided the loss of ability to conduct offensive operations due to unit overextension and exhaustion.

However, Russias artillery-heavy strategy is increasingly ineffective.Ukraines Western-provided precision weapons have methodically destroyed Russian command posts, logistics hubs and ammunition depots throughout the occupied east and south.

Russias logistics system remains manpower-heavy, rail-dependent and centralized. Hence, pressure on it exposes its frailty: Russias military is intellectually and materially incapable of redistributing its supply depots and replacing rail with road transport. This has led to an appreciable drop in artillery fire in the east, where Russia benefits the most from a dense rail network, and in the south, with much longer logistical lines.

Manpower and logistical constraints prevent Russias military from regaining the operational initiative and make it severely vulnerable to even moderate Ukrainian pressure, which is building.Ukraines counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast is underway, although it remains in the shaping phase. It is dividing the Russian bridgehead on the Dnipro Rivers north bank into segments and using long-range fire to disrupt logistics; over time, it will degrade Russian combat power. Ukraines hope is that Russia will cut its losses and withdraw, much as it did around Kyiv and from Snake Island.

A more consolidated Russian position in the south remains extremely vulnerable, too.Its logistics lines are long, and it must police significant territory for Ukrainian special operations and partisan activity.Ukraine, meanwhile, operates on interior lines, allowing it to shift forces far more rapidly and dictate the pace of operations. Moreover, given Russias manpower constraints, force shifts will be necessary to maintain even the more consolidated position; they have begun, but not in great enough numbers to stabilize the south or to counterattack.

The current Kherson counteroffensive is only the beginning. Ukraine will reset after driving Russia from the Dnipros north bank; continuing an offensive after this into Kherson Oblast is possible but difficult.The Dnipro is wide; crossing it would require a large-scale bridging operation that Russia would oppose and even if it succeeded, losses would be high.Ukraine would then need to push towards the Crimea Canal, Russias second defensive line, assaulting fixed Russian positions for the first time.

More viable may be an offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.The ground is wider, partisan activity appears more intense, and Russian logistics are more exposed, given Ukrainian firing positions.Ukraine can mask a buildup because of its forces in the east; new units could be used for the Donbas and Kharkiv, forcing Russia to guess Ukrainian intentions and risk redeploying incorrectly. Moreover, a Ukrainian counteroffensive that reaches Melitopol, or simply maintains fire control of the M14 Road and attendant railways, would threaten all Russian forces to the west with logistical collapse, especially if Ukraine can disable the Kerch Strait Bridge.This would construct the wars long-awaited first cauldron.

Regardless, Ukraine has a solid chance of retaking the south, or at least pressuring Russian positions hard enough to induce another controlled retreat to Crimea.

Despite prognostications on the failure of sanctions pressure, Russias economy is nearing implosion. Russia cannot sustain its economic interventions, and its industry is entirely starved of foreign-produced high-end equipment.Oil revenues alone are insufficient to prop up Russiaandcannot procure necessary Western technology.A precipitous decline is probable between October and December just as the purported Russian commodity strategy will bite the hardest, with the West placed under the greatest energy pressure.

Putins options are, therefore, limited.

Mobilization remains far too dangerous; arming tens of thousands of young Caucasian, Central Asian and Siberian Russians and shipping them through Moscow to Ukraine is a recipe for revolution.But seeking a limited peace, in which Russia retains the Donbas and Crimea regions, does not solve Crimeas vulnerability nor save Putins domestic credibility.Most likely, the Kremlin will take this peace and Putins security services will batten down the hatches, hoping to outlast the economic downturn and maintain power.

The military, however, will be disillusioned.It will have completely eviscerated its combat power, and for what?A small bit of land in eastern Ukraine and some looted household goods.Russias piddling incentives for combat service, along with high casualties, will create a toxic domestic environment.We may very well witness the reassertion of an old Soviet dynamic that pits the security services against the military, which brought Nikita Khrushchev to power and eliminated Lavrentiy Beria in 1953.

The greatest danger, therefore, comes after a successful Ukrainian push.At this point, Putin will feel the most domestic and psychological pressure, or finally will come around to the militarys argument for either mobilization or extension of the war.

The U.S. and its allies must prepare accordingly and expect a confrontation in the next six months.Four steps are necessary:

First, the West should expand and diversify weapons deliveries to Ukraine.HIMARS and other long-range artillery systems are necessary, but aircraft should be included both fighters and manned or unmanned aircraft with anti-submarine capabilities to undermine Russias Black Sea Fleet even further. The greater the military pressure Russia experiences, the more likely the failure of Putins twin attacks on Ukraine and the international order.

Second, as Putin becomes more desperate, the U.S. and willing allies should prepare to impose a no-fly zone in western Ukraine. Unlike earlier in the war, this is not to ensure Ukrainian civilians are safe from Russian bombardment. Rather, it would be to call Putins escalatory bluff, while deterring any attempted Belarusian intervention.

Third, the U.S. should apply pressure to those corporations still doing business in Russia.Putins regime is increasingly isolated and approaching economic collapse; more departures will accelerate its implosion.

Fourth, the U.S. should encourage Turkey, through positive and negative inducements, to permit a NATO or U.S. naval mission into the Black Sea.Ukrainian grain exports have resumed, though time will tell how much Russia allows to exit the country. Nevertheless, now is the time to push Russias naval position the hardest; absent control of the Black Sea, Russias position in southern Ukraine becomes untenable. This would not involve active combat operations, simply a demonstration of presence and force.

As the war continues, the opacity of Russias weaknesses is replaced by transparency. The West should take the fullest possible advantage.

Seth Cropsey is founder and president of Yorktown Institute. He served as a naval officer and as deputy undersecretary of the Navy and is the author of Mayday:The Decline of American Naval Supremacy (2013) andSeablindness:How Political Neglect Is Choking AmericanSeapowerand What to Do About It (2017).

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Putin cant control his Ukraine cataclysm and the US must get ready - The Hill

Putins Threshold of Pain – Asharq Al-awsat – English

In any international conflict that involves tough political and diplomatic measures and violence of one sort or another, a key question faces the adversaries on both sides: what is the other sides threshold of pain?

More than six months after Vladimir Putins invasion of Ukraine his adversaries would do well to ponder that question.

The threshold of pain is a point which when reached obliges the adversary to re-think its current strategy and seek relief. Some adversaries may try to push that threshold as far as possible even after hearing their bones being crushed. This was the case with Adolf Hitler who was ready to see the whole of Germany turned into a pile of rubble but could not contemplate surrender.

Others like what the late Ayatollah Khomeini did in August 1988, would drink the poison chalice to avoid the collapse of their regime.

The Iraqi despot Saddam Hussein once offered us his own definition of the threshold of pain. He related how as a teenager he and his mates in Tikrit would jump on trucks carrying goods to Baghdad to get a free ride for kicks. The trouble was that the trucks guard would hit them on their fingers with a wire whip that drew blood. According to Saddam all the boys would jump off after a few whip lashes-but he would hang until his hands were dripping with blood. I was proud to see that, as time went on, I was able to hang on for a bit longer.

The Apartheid regime in South Africa proved to have a high threshold of pain and decided to throw in the towel not because of sanctions and proximity pressures but as a result of psycho-political changes within the white ruling elites.

In North Korea and the Islamic Republic in Iran the threshold in question is fixed by the degree of threat to the regime not the sufferings of the masses. In Pyongyang and Tehran every pain is worth enduring as long as the survival of the regime is assured.

So, what is Putins threshold of pain?

Some Western leaders seem to have assumed a rather low threshold, believing that Putin would cave in once crushing sanctions began to show their effect.

To be sure sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States and a number of other powers notably Japan has not had enough time to affect Putins behavior. In fact some sanctions have remained at the level of announcement. Russia continues to export energy albeit with generous discounts though the brown market outside Europe while Putin has managed to keep inflations under control and, thanks to a war chest created over many years, prevents the rouble from free fall.

It is clear that Putin, having started with the dream of a shirt war ending with victory is now switching to a new strategy of low intensity warfare with a slower rhythm and tempo under his control. Assured that his own Russian territory is treated as a sanctuary, he can pick and choose when and where to turn the heat on Ukraine and the NATO allies supporting it.

Worse still he may already be plotting to open diversionary fronts to confuse his adversaries and stretch their resources. One such front is already taking shape as Serbia, under a pro-Putin team, prepares to invade Kosovo which is likely to drag in Albania as well. Another front is also looming in Moldova where Putin has been shipping vast amounts of arms to a pro-Moscow faction. Russia is also probing the possibility of mischief-making in former French Africa to threaten the supplies of rare metals needed by European industry. Dont be surprised if even Estonia, a member of NATO, is subjected to what is known as proximity pressures.

As far as Russian human losses are concerned, Putin has also succeeded in pushing his threshold of pain higher than expected. To shield the Russian heartland against big losses he has made disproportionate use of volunteers and mercenaries from ethnic minorities. According to best estimates Russia has lost over 70,000 killed and perhaps three times as many wounded or missing in action. Anecdotal evidence shows that casualties sustained by non- Russian republics of the federation are at least 30 percent higher than those of the heartland.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Putins Special Operation will continue for as long as needed to achieve all its objectives. But he does not say what those objectives are. Putin thinks that the short-termism of politics in Western democracies will lead to a change in public opinion against what is becoming a growingly costly war with no sign of the victory promises by outgoing British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Ms. Nancy Pelosi , Speaker of the US House of Representatives.

The fact that the war in Ukraine has been relegated to inside pages and lower rungs in TV news bulletins in the West encourages Putin in his illusions about a victory he is unlikely to achieve.

The effect of Putins strategy is to cast Russia as an existential threat to the world order, something that would endanger other nations beyond NATO and the European Union. Putin is delusional if he thinks he could foment chaos and expect sympathy and support from China, India and Brazil among the nations he is trying to woo to his side.

Weak leadership in key Western democracies, notably the United States, Britain and France, does not mean weakness in terms of economic, military and cultural power in comparison with a Russia led into the unknown by an overambitious leader.

Putin may have a threshold of pain that is higher than Western experts forecast. But, sooner or later, he is bound to reach that threshold. Even in the 19th century when, after defeating Napoleon, it was the greatest military power in the world Russia was not able to reshape Europe.

Putin may not be ready yet to jump off Saddam Husseins truck but his refusal to end the war produces nothing but more corpses, Ukrainian, Russian, Daghestani, Chechen, Ingush, Tatar, Charkas, Kalmuk, Bashkir, Kamchatkan and so on.

In his novel Dead Souls Gogol notes that We Russians tend to blame others for our miseries, not knowing that whatever wrong is done to us is done by ourselves. Putin would do well to listen to the master of Russian literature, even though he was an ethnic Ukrainian.

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Putins Threshold of Pain - Asharq Al-awsat - English

Putins former banker warns about his health – AS USA

Sergei Pugachev, who was head of the presidential campaign that brought Vladimir Putin to the Kremlin 22 years ago, gave an interview to El Independiente in which he spoke about how the current president of Russia behaves behind closed doors and gave an indication about what his current state of health is.

Pugachev, nicknamed Putins banker, is an international investor who was part of Vladimir Putins inner circle at the turn of the century. However, since 2011 he fell out of favor with the Russian president and has been immersed in multiple criminal proceedings. As a result, his assets (which amount to 15,000 million dollars) were frozen and he was forced to leave Russia for Great Britain and later ended up in France, where he currently resides.

What one billion dollars really means

From that moment on, Pugachev has never missed the opportunity to take revenge by talking openly about a Vladimir Putin whom he defines as a pathological liar who lies for no reason. He did it to me and he has done it again now in Ukraine. The bombs fall on civilian targets but instead Putin says they do not attack civilians.

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The person who was Putins shadow during his beginnings in the Kremlin said of the Russian leader, It is evident that he is not in his best state. He was someone who took great care of himself..

Pugachev added that Putin used to swim for four hours a day; then he received massages and they gave him a manicure and pedicure, - care that, according to him, does not correspond to his current appearance.

He is only 69 years old but he looks 90 years old. So, given all the money and resources he has, hes probably very sick. Even people who have worked their entire lives in a mine look better, Pugachev warned.

The interviewee says that when Putin was chosen as a presidential candidate, he made it clear that he was doing it for money. He told us, I can be your president; just pay me.

Regarding the wealth that Putin could have accumulated during his long term in office, Pugachev revealed, Starting out from the fact that there was a tacit agreement to consider that all businesses belong to the leader, and that the businessmen accepted it as a new way of operating, the fortune built up by Putin and his family could exceed trillions of dollars.

About this system, Putins former campaign manager points out that the oligarchs understood towards the end of the 2000s that all the money they had amassed was common property. All their fortunes were under Putins responsibility or belonged to him. Today, the system is like a cooperative in the hands of Putin and those closest to him.

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Putins former banker warns about his health - AS USA

Putin’s horror plot EXPOSED as despot tries to blame slaughter of POWs on West – Express

The Kremlin is planning to falsify evidence to frame Ukraine for an attack on a prison housing prisoners of war (POW) in a bid to deter the West from sending more weapons to support the embattled nation, multiple intelligence sources suggest. The Olenivka prison near Donetsk had been used to house many of the Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered at the Azovstal plant in Mariupol several months ago. Last Thursday, the prison came under attack, killing at least 50 Ukrainian POW. Disturbing video footage published on Russian state TV and social media channels show extensive destruction to a building and several bodies.

The Kremlin has been quick to blame Ukrainian troops, who they say were using Western-provided weapons for the attack.

A White House official told CNN they expect Russia will falsify evidence in order to more convincingly blame Ukrainian forces.

The official added that they have "reason to believe that Russia would go so far as to make it appear that [Western-provided] Ukrainian HIMARS were to blame".

This analysis is echoed by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which found: "Russian forces likely set fire to the prison complex holding Ukrainian POWs in occupied Donetsk Oblast but blamed Ukraine for an alleged precision strike using Western-supplied military equipment, likely to deter additional military support to Ukraine."

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that it determined the Wagner Group deliberately set fire to the prison complex on July 28.

The report is consistent with the damage observable in Russian-published video of the site.

The footage showed the walls of the building were burned but still standing and did not reveal shell craters or other indicators consistent with an artillery strike.

Western-provided HIMARS have reached rock star status in Ukraine, with the Defence Ministry posting slick celebratory videos to social media channels.

On Monday, Kyiv's MoD shared a spoof promotional video for "HIMARS global tour 2022", featuring footage of the rocket launchers wreaking havoc on Russian targets after nightfall, to the soundtrack of Metallica's Enter Sandman.

The tagline read: "Coming soon... to a Russian munitions depot near you."

The United States started providing the key precision rocket weapon system to Ukraine in June after receiving assurances from Kyiv that it would not use them to hit targets inside Russian territory.

In July, US President Joe Biden signed a new weapons package worth up to $400 million, including more HIMARS and ammunition.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky used his overnight speech on Tuesday to celebrate the success of HIMARS.

He proclaimed: "The word 'HIMARS' has become almost synonymous with the word 'justice' for our country.

"The Ukrainian defence forces will do everything to ensure that the occupiers experience more and more painful losses every week thanks to these very effective systems."

They have confirmed that there are at least 20 HIMARS operating on the battlefield.

The delivery of HIMARS comes as fighting intensifies in the southeast of Ukraine, stretching up into the northeast.

Donetsk and Luhansk are the two regions that together form Donbas, the eastern part of Ukraine where the conflict between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists began in 2014.

The area has become the main focus of Putin's invasion after his troops failed to take over Kyiv earlier this year.

The Russian military has kept up a constant barrage of artillery and missile strikes across the region for several weeks.

The Kremlin claims the goal of what it calls its "special military operation" is to take control of both Luhansk and Donetsk.

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Putin's horror plot EXPOSED as despot tries to blame slaughter of POWs on West - Express

NATO ‘will react’ if Putin attacks – causing ‘most dangerous situation since WW2’ – Express

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that "the whole alliance will react" if the Russian President attacks one of the 30 members of the military bloc. The former Norwegian Prime Minister's comments reflect article 5 of the original treaty that established the alliance in 1949 based upon the concept of collective self defence.

This means that an attack on one member of the alliance is judged to be an attack on all member states.

It has been invoked only once following the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States in 2001.

In a speech in Norway on Thursday, Mr Stoltenberg said that Europe was facing its "most dangerous situation since World War 2" in a dire warning.

He also emphasised that NATO countries needed to continue to support Ukraine in order to prevent Russian aggression spreading beyond Ukraine to other countries.

Mr Stoltenberg added that this might mean that NATO countries will need to support Ukraine with weapons and other forms of assistance for a long time to come.

He said: "It's in our interest that this type of aggressive policy does not succeed.

"What happens in Ukraine is terrible but it would be much worse if there was a war between Russia and NATO.

"This is the most dangerous situation in Europe since World War Two.

READ MORE:Putins gas master plan thwarted: UK handed ONE BILLION cubic metres

Following what the Kremlin calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine, previously neutral countries Finland and Sweden have applied to join NATO.

So far the request has been ratified by 23 of the 30 members of the alliance including the United States after Turkey dropped its opposition to the two countries joining.

Despite the current harsh rhetoric between Vladimir Putin and NATO, the Russian President was much more favourable towards the alliance during his first term in office during the early 2000s.

He told American filmmaker Oliver Stone during an interview that he had discussed the possibility of Moscow joining the alliance with US President Bill Clinton in 2000.

The Russian President also made similar positive comments about joining NATO during a BBC interview with David Frost the same year.

Link:

NATO 'will react' if Putin attacks - causing 'most dangerous situation since WW2' - Express

Putin accuses West of ‘terror’, tells prosecutors to be tough – Reuters.com

LONDON, April 25 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin on Monday accused the West of trying to destroy Russia, demanding prosecutors take a tough line with what he cast as plots hatched by foreign spies to divide the country and discredit its armed forces.

Speaking to Russia's top prosecutors and watched by his defence minister, Putin accused the West of inciting Ukraine to plan attacks on Russian journalists - an allegation denied by Kyiv.

Putin said the main successor to the Soviet-era KGB, the Federal Security Service (FSB), had on Monday prevented a murder attempt by a "terrorist group" on Russian TV journalist Vladimir Solovyev.

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"They have moved to terror - to preparing the murder of our journalists," Putin said of the West.

Putin, a former KGB spy who has ruled Russia as paramount leader since the last day of 1999, did not immediately provide evidence to support his statements and Reuters was unable to immediately verify the accusations.

FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov said a group of six neo-nationalist Russian citizens had plotted to kill Solovyev - one of Russia's most high-profile TV and radio journalists - at the behest of Ukraine's State Security Service (SBU).

The SBU denied the allegations, which it said were fantasies cooked up by Moscow. "The SBU has no plans to assassinate V. Solovyev," it said in a statement.

Solovyev, a host of talk shows whose guests often denigrate Ukraine and justify Moscow's actions there, thanked the FSB.

Putin said the West had realised that Ukraine could not beat Russia in war so had moved to a different plan - the destruction of Russia itself.

"Another task has come to the fore: to split Russian society and destroy Russia from within," Putin said. "It is not working."

Putin said foreign media organisations and social media had been used by the West's spies to confect provocations against Russia's armed forces.

Prosecutors should react swiftly to fake news and reports that undermined order, Putin said, without giving any specific examples.

"They are often mainly organised from abroad, organised in different ways - either the information comes from there or the money," Putin said. Prosecutors should fight extremism "more actively", Putin said.

Just days after ordering the invasion of Ukraine, Putin signed a law that imposes a jail term of up to 15 years for spreading intentionally "fake" news about the military.

Russia says the Western media have provided an excessively partial narrative of the war in Ukraine that largely ignores Moscow's concerns about the enlargement of NATO and what it says is the persecution of Russian speakers in Ukraine.

Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine has killed thousands of people, displaced millions more and raised fears of a wider confrontation between Russia and the United States - by far the world's two biggest nuclear powers.

Putin says the "special military operation" in Ukraine is necessary because the United States was using Ukraine to threaten Russia and Ukraine was guilty of the genocide of Russian-speaking people.

Ukraine says it is fighting a land grab by Russia and that Putin's accusations of genocide are nonsense.

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Reporting by Reuters; editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Alex Richardson

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Putin accuses West of 'terror', tells prosecutors to be tough - Reuters.com

Putin threatens Ukraine allies as Truss urges doubling down on support for Kyiv – The Guardian

Vladimir Putin has warned of a lightning-fast retaliation if countries intervened in Ukraine as Britain pressed for Moscow to be so weakened militarily by its war that the Russian president can never pose a threat to European security.

The Russian president told lawmakers in St Petersburg on Wednesday the west wanted to cut Russia into pieces and accused it of pushing Ukraine into conflict with Moscow. If someone intends to intervene in the ongoing events from the outside, and create strategic threats for Russia that are unacceptable to us, they should know that our retaliatory strikes will be lightning-fast, said Putin.

We have all the tools for this, things no one else can boast of having now. And we will not boast, we will use them if necessary. And I want everyone to know that.

His comments came as British foreign secretary Liz Truss called for a doubling down on support for Ukraine in a speech on Wednesday night, including further supplies of heavy weapons, and for allies to push for Russian forces to entirely leave Ukraines territory, with the country reverting to its pre-2014 borders.

In reference to Russian-occupied areas in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, she said: We are going to keep going further and faster to push Russia out of the whole of Ukraine. There has been speculation that Ukraine would settle for a return to the pre-invasion status quo where territory was ceded to de facto Russian-backed separatists.

She called Putin a desperate rogue operator with no interest in international norms.

Some argue we shouldnt provide heavy weapons for fear of provoking something worse. But my view, is that inaction would be the greatest provocation. This is a time for courage not for caution, she said, admitting that more should have been done to deter an invasion.

Truss warned Putin that the west would come to the defence of Moldova in the same way as it is defending Ukraine if Russia mounted an attack there, as seems possible. She said the UK was digging deep into its inventories, including heavy weapons, tanks and aeroplanes, to defend Ukraine and other countries threatened by Russia.

She also said future Russian access to the global economy will depend on playing by the rules. There can be no more free passes.

In other developments:

The United Nations secretary general, Antnio Guterres, has arrived in Ukraine after meeting Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, in Moscow. Guterres will meet the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, on Thursday.

Russia warned other EU customers may be cut off from its natural gas supplies if they refuse to pay in roubles. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskovs comments came after Russia halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, a move that European leaders and Zelenskiy denounced as blackmail.

The damage bill from the war has reached $600bn, Zelenskiy said in a video address on Wednesday night. More than 32m square metres of living space, more than 1,500 educational facilities and more than 350 medical facilities have been destroyed or damaged, he said. About 2,500km of roads and almost 300 bridges have been ruined or damaged.

A series of explosions were heard near a TV tower in the Russian-occupied southern Ukrainian city of Kherson on Wednesday night, temporarily knocking Russian channels off the air, Ukrainian and Russian news organisations reported. RIA Novosti said the broadcast later resumed. Russian channels began broadcasting from Kherson last week, it reported.

The G7 group of industrialised nations is examining whether it could reimpose the current punitive economic sanctions if Russia tries to renege on a hypothetical future peace deal imposed by western allies.

Britain has long said the war must end with Putin being seen to fail, but the containment terms being proposed by western officials include a permanent weakening of the Russian military forces so they can no longer pose a threat to eastern Europe, as well as Russia pulling out of all territory it has occupied, including Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.

Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, this week in Germany hinted at the thinking by saying the US wanted the war to end with Russia so weakened it could not repeat its attack on Ukraine.

British thinking reflects a growing confidence that the political, economic and military forces ranged against Putin can, in the long term, lead to his complete defeat. London also detects a change of mood in Washington and to a lesser extent, Berlin including a greater willingness to supply weaponry to Nato standards rather than hand-downs from old Warsaw Pact armoury.

Britain envisages the security guarantees to Kyiv would largely consist of a commitment to arm Ukraine enough that Russia would not mount an attack. Britain does not favour a Nato-style commitment that Ukraines allies would intervene to protect Ukraine if it was threatened by Russia.

Critics will say very tough settlement demands run the risk of forcing Putin into a corner so that he threatens the use of tactical weapons. But the Russian leader has already threatened to use nuclear weapons if red lines were crossed.

In her speech, Truss also set out a warning to China claiming its rise will not be inevitable if it ignores the rules. Explaining that China is not impervious to western economic pressure, she said China needs to trade with the G7 since it represents around half of the global economy.

See more here:

Putin threatens Ukraine allies as Truss urges doubling down on support for Kyiv - The Guardian

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Russia is redeploying some forces from Georgia, UK MoD says

Russia is redeploying elements of its forces from Georgia to reinforce its invasion of Ukraine, British military intelligence said on Thursday.

Between 1,200 and 2,000 of these Russian troops are being reorganised into 3x Battalion Tactical Groups, Britains ministry of defence said.

It is highly unlikely that Russia planned to generate reinforcements in this manner and it is indicative of the unexpected losses it has sustained during the invasion.

Updated at 23.33EDT

This blog has now closed but you can follow all the latest developments on our new Ukraine liveblog in the link below.

An oil depot is reportedly on fire in the Russian city of Belgorod as the regional governor blames Ukrainian military helicopters for the attack.

Vyacheslav Gladkov said on his Telegram channel on Friday morning that the fire was caused by air strikes from two Ukrainian helicopters.

Belgorod sits just north of the border with Ukraine.

Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for any of the blasts.

Heres the latest:

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said earlier his forces are preparing for fresh Russian attacks on the Donbas region in the southeast after they repelled Russias assault on the capital Kyiv.

Zelenskiy said Russian troops continue to leave the countrys north but described the move as a tactical withdrawal.

Watch his video address from the streets of Kyiv below.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said Australia will send armoured Bushmaster vehicles to Ukraine after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy specifically asked for them during a video appeal to Australian lawmakers.

Zelenskiy addressed the Australian Parliament on Thursday and asked for the Australian-made, four-wheel-drive vehicles.

Morrison told reporters the vehicles will be flown over on Boeing C-17 Globemaster transport planes. He didnt specify how many would be sent or when.

Were not just sending our prayers, we are sending our guns, were sending our munitions, were sending our humanitarian aid, were sending all of this, our body armor, all of these things and were going to be sending our armoured vehicles, our Bushmasters, as well, Morrison said.

Zelenskiy specifically asked for Bushmaster vehicles during his address to Australian Parliament.

You have very good armed personnel vehicles, Bushmasters, that could help Ukraine substantially, and other pieces of equipment, Zelenskiy said.

Updated at 22.47EDT

Russian troops have reportedly taken an unspecified number of captive Ukrainian servicemen hostage after leaving Ukraines Chernobyl nuclear power plant, according to officials.

State nuclear agency Energoatom released a statement on Telegram, citing plant workers:

As they ran away from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the Russian occupiers took members of the National Guard, whom they had held hostage since Feb 24, with them.

The Guardian is unable to verify these claims and it remains unclear how many, if any, Ukrainian servicemen were taken away.

The Biden administration has approved the drawdown and sale of petroleum from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) citing a severe energy supply interruption.

In a recently published memorandum, Biden said Russias invasion on Ukraine has had a profound impact on global oil markets prompting the International Energy Agency Governing Board to agree to a collective release of petroleum reserves.

He said the United States committed to a drawdown and sale of 30 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The Secretary is authorised and directed to draw down and sell petroleum from the SPR at public sale to the highest qualified bidder at a rate the Secretary may determine, in accordance with section 161 of EPCA and the SPR competitive sales procedures in 10 CFR Part 625, the statement read.

Russia will respond to European Union sanctions and says the 27-nation bloc might realise that a confrontation with Moscow is not in its interests, Russian state media agency RIA Novosti cited a senior foreign ministry official as saying on Friday.

Nikolai Kobrinets said in an interview with the news agency:

The actions of the EU will not remain unanswered ... the irresponsible sanctions by Brussels are already negatively affecting the daily lives of ordinary Europeans.

Are they ready from their own pocket to pay for further killings of civilians in Ukraine, the transformation of Europe from a region of cooperation and stability into a zone of conflict? I dont think so.

Updated at 21.51EDT

Earlier, we heard remarks from US president Joe Biden who suggested Putin appears to be self isolated with indications that he has either fired some of his advisers or put them under house arrest.

UK defence secretary Ben Wallace has seemingly concurred with this assessment, saying Putin is not the force he used to be as he becomes increasingly more isolated.

Speaking with Sky News, Wallace said:

President Putin is not the force he used to be. He is now a man in a cage he built himself. Hes isolated.

His army is exhausted, he has suffered significant losses. The reputation of this great army of Russia has been trashed.

He has not only got to live with the consequences of what he is doing to Ukraine, but he has also got to live with the consequences of what he has done to his own army.

Wallace added that he believed Russian forces appear to be regrouping and shifting their focus towards the south and east of Ukraine.

We have seen it before. It always gets worse. It goes for more civilian attacks, more civilian areas.

Russian troops began leaving the Chernobyl nuclear plant after soldiers contracted significant doses of radiation from digging trenches at the highly contaminated site, Ukraines state power company has alleged.

Ukraines state agency in charge of the Chernobyl exclusion zone, Energoatom, published an update late on Thursday confirming Russian troops had left the site.

According to the staff of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, there are currently no outsiders at the NPP site.

It will be recalled that today the Russian occupation forces left the territory of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and the satellite city of Slavutych.

Energoatom said Russian troops had dug in the forest inside the exclusion zone around the now-closed plant.

It should be noted that the information about fortifications and trenches that the [Russians] built right in the Red Forest, the most polluted in the entire Exclusion Zone, was also confirmed, Energoatom said in a Telegram post.

So it is not surprising that the occupiers received significant doses of radiation and panicked at the first sign of illness. And it manifested itself very quickly.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it had not been able to confirm reports of Russian troops receiving high doses and was seeking more information in a statement on Thursday.

The IAEA has not been able to confirm reports of Russian forces receiving high doses of radiation while being in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and is seeking further information in order to provide an independent assessment of the situation.

Edwin Lyman, a nuclear expert with the US-based Union of Concerned Scientists, told the Associated Press it seems unlikely a large number of troops would develop severe radiation illness, but it was impossible to know for sure without more details.

He said contaminated material was probably buried or covered with new topsoil during the cleanup of Chernobyl, and some soldiers may have been exposed to a hot spot of radiation while digging. Others may have assumed they were at risk too, he said.

Russian troops on Tuesday left Ukraines Chernobyl nuclear power plant after weeks of occupation, officials said on Thursday.

Energoatom said Russian troops began leaving the station and other exclusion zones, which they had occupied since the start of the Russian invasion on 24 February.

The IAEA also released a statement, saying: Ukraine informed IAEA today that Russian forces that had been in control of Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant since 24 February have, in writing, transferred control of the nuclear power plant to Ukrainian personnel and moved convoys of troops.

Updated at 21.20EDT

Hello and thank you for joining us.

Here is a quick re-cap of where thing stand:

Updated at 20.34EDT

Russia is redeploying elements of its forces from Georgia to reinforce its invasion of Ukraine, British military intelligence said on Thursday.

Between 1,200 and 2,000 of these Russian troops are being reorganised into 3x Battalion Tactical Groups, Britains ministry of defence said.

It is highly unlikely that Russia planned to generate reinforcements in this manner and it is indicative of the unexpected losses it has sustained during the invasion.

Updated at 23.33EDT

EU and Chinese leaders will meet for a first summit in two years on Friday with Brussels keen for assurances from Beijing that it will neither supply Russia with arms nor help Moscow circumvent western sanctions imposed over the invasion of Ukraine.

EU officials close to the preparations of the summit said any help given to Russia would damage Chinas international reputation and jeopardise relations with its biggest trade partners - Europe and the United States.

The presidents of the European Commission and European Council, Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, will hold virtual talks with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and later President Xi Jinping.

An EU official said Chinas stance towards Russia would be the million-dollar question on Friday, as reported by Reuters.

Another pointed out that over a quarter of Chinas global trade was with the bloc and the United States last year, against just 2.4% with Russia.

Do we prolong this war or do we work together to end this war? That is the essential question for the summit, the official said.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated Chinas call for peace talks this week, adding the legitimate concerns of all sides should be accommodated.

Here is a handful of some of the latest images to come from Ukraine today.

In another busy day of diplomacy Zelenskiy confirmed he addressed the parliaments of Australia, the Netherlands and Belgium.

I felt total support. I am waiting for concrete steps. I called for tougher sanctions against Russia. We have to put pressure on the aggressor until the aggression is over, he said.

In a discussion with President of the European Council, Charles Michel, Zelenskiy said the pair discussed additional sanctions on Russia, economic support for Ukraine and financing of priority projects.

The dynamics of our movement towards full membership in the EU, he added.

Zelenskiy said he was grateful for the new package of sanctions against Russia imposed by the United States.

We are grateful. It will not allow the current sanctions to be circumvented - we have already noticed such attempts. It will also limit the work of sensitive sectors of the Russian economy - its defence sector.

Finally, Zelenskiy said he also held talks with President of Turkey Erdoan.

We spoke very specifically. In particular, about the prospects of negotiations in Turkey with the Russian Federation. And also about the creation of an effective system of guarantees for our state. About the security we have always needed and to the real provision of which we have come closer.

I am grateful for Turkeys readiness to become a guarantor of security for Ukraine.

Zelenskiy also provided an update on Ukraines military defence, confirming Russian troops continue to leave the countrys north but describing the move as a tactical withdrawal.

To the north of Kyiv, in the Chernihiv direction, in the Sumy region, the expulsion of the occupiers continues. They themselves are aware that they can no longer withstand the intensity of hostilities they could have maintained in the first half of March ...

But we must also realise that for the Russian military, this is part of their tactics. All this is not occasional. We know their plans. We know what they are planning and what they are doing.

We know that they are moving away from the areas where we are beating them to focus on others that are very important. On those where it can be difficult for us.

Describing the extremely difficult situation in Ukraines south and in Donbas, Zelenskiy claimed Russian forces are accumulating in the temporarily occupied areas of region of Kherson.

They are trying to organise some of their incomprehensible structures there, they are trying to figure out how to consolidate their presence there, he said.

Also in Donbas, in Mariupol, in the Kharkiv direction, Russian troops are accumulating the potential for strikes. Powerful strikes.

Hello its Samantha Lock back with you on the blog as we continue to deliver all the latest from Ukraine.

As expected, Zelenskiy has delivered another late-night address.

They [Russia] said - three or five days. They thought that this would be enough for them to seize our entire state. And its already 36. And we are standing. And we will continue to fight. Until the end.

Kari Paul here, signing off for the evening. Below are some of the top stories of the moment.

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http://www.theguardian.com

Chechnya once resisted Russia. Now, its leader is Putin’s brutal ally in Ukraine – NPR

The head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putinin 2019. Alexey Nikolsky/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

The head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putinin 2019.

In the 1990s and 2000s, people in Chechnya described Russia's two separate wars there as a nightmare that terrorized citizens and left the capital of Grozny in ruins.

"The ground was literally charred. There were very few buildings in the center of Grozny still standing," said Maura Reynolds, the then Moscow correspondent for the L.A. Times. "All the trees were burned, you know, had lost all their branches and leaves. Even though it was spring, there was no green. There was no sign of life."

The messaging Russia used to justify the invasion of the small Muslim republic was about "bandits and terrorists," Reynolds said, "just like you hear Russian officials, including Putin, now talk about Nazis [in Ukraine]."

One prominent Chechen figure during this period, Akhmad Kadyrov, initially resisted Russian forces. But as Russia took control of what is now the Chechen Republic of Russia, he flipped, and ultimately became the leader of Chechnya in the early 2000s, aligned with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But Kadyrov was assassinated in 2004 by Chechens who opposed him.

Today, his son Ramzan Kadyrov is in charge. Like his father, Ramzan Kadyrov is a key ally of Putin, and he's played a role in Russia's war in Ukraine as his fighters known as the Kadyrovtsy have taken part in the battle.

Former Chechen President Akhmad Kadyrov (R) and his son Ramzan standing in front of Ramzan's house in January 2004. AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Former Chechen President Akhmad Kadyrov (R) and his son Ramzan standing in front of Ramzan's house in January 2004.

Even before the war in Ukraine, the younger Kadyrov was sometimes referred to as the brutal puppet or attack dog of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Kadyrov earned this reputation through his absolutely brutal and feudalistic-type tight hold grip over Chechnya, where he has been the leader basically since the assassination of his father," said Rachel Denber, the deputy director for the Europe and Central Asia division of Human Rights Watch.

Kadyrov's rule includes public policies and attempts to control the private life of civilians through his security services that are widely feared and linked to enforced disappearances, summary executions and house burnings, Denber said. He has been sanctioned by the U.S. for human rights abuses that include the persecution and torture of LGBTQ people.

"These days, Kadyrov exercises control through his brutal sort of praetorian guard and also through extensive surveillance of online chat groups and the like," Denber said. "Also by filtering out people who are believed to express even the most mild criticism of him or government policies."

Kadyrov's involvement in Ukraine does not come as a surprise as Chechen forces have previously aided the Russian leadership. But their impact is not entirely clear, with reports they have suffered heavy casualties, including a key commander, according to The Guardian. Kadyrov has claimed to be in Ukraine, including outside Kyiv, but that has not been confirmed.

Though Kadyrov is one of Putin's top allies, the relationship is complicated. Kadyrov sees Putin as a kind of patron, Denber said. This goes back to the early 2000s, when the elder Kadyrov tied Chechnya's fate to Russia.

So when it comes time to help Russia by providing fighters, Ramzan Kadyrov is given a chance to show the Chechen power and then be owed something in return, Denber said.

During his rule, Kadyrov has also created a larger-than-life profile for himself with his use of social media. His outspoken behavior allowed him to develop "a cult around himself," Denber said.

Instagram was Ramzan's preferred platform for years, and when he was active on it, Denber said "he allowed himself to say the most outrageous, flamboyant and inflammatory things."

Today, Kadyrov has taken to using Telegram, where he shares voice memos and other messages that vary between rants about what needs to be done, to messages appealing to Putin, or posts that contradict reports about casualties his troops have sustained.

His posts have not gone unnoticed, regularly amassing more than a million views. He has also drawn attention to himself by engaging in online spats with the likes of billionaire Elon Musk, who is in the process of buying Twitter.

Kadyrov went after Musk in March following a tweet in which Musk challenged Putin to "single combat" over the invasion of Ukraine. Kadyrov responded on Telegram, saying there was no way Musk could take on Putin, and the Chechen leader invited Musk to train at some Chechen centers.

All of the messages and posts are about self-promotion, Denber said.

"I think he wants to be as visible as possible," Denber said. "You self-aggrandize so that the boss notices you, but you also self-aggrandize, you know, so the local folks also notice [and] see you in a particular way."

Wynne Davis adapted this story for Web.

Read more:

Chechnya once resisted Russia. Now, its leader is Putin's brutal ally in Ukraine - NPR

Putin Must Be Stopped Once and for All – The Daily Beast

Defending Ukraine is not enough. Defeating Russia on the battlefield is not enough. We must ensureusing every means available at our disposalthat Vladimir Putin may never again commit the kinds of atrocities that have marked his two decades in power.

Fortunately, this week, it was made absolutely clear that the Biden administration recognizes that necessity and has made it a strategic centerpiece of their foreign and national security policy efforts.

On Monday, after visiting Ukraine with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said, We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it cant do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.

Although one senior U.S. official admitted to me (somewhat uneasily) that Austin said the quiet part out loud, it soon became clear that the U.S. was publicly willing to own the new goal of turning Russias unprovoked, brutal escalation of its eight year-old war in Ukraine into a lasting and meaningful defeat for the Kremlin.

On Tuesday in Germanyat a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Consultative Group (a gathering of the countries from around the world that have pledged to support Ukraines war effort)Secretary Austin said it was the U.S. belief that Ukraine can win the war with Russia. Austins spokesperson, John Kirby, stated: We dont want a Russia thats capable of exerting that kind of malign influence in Europe or anywhere in the world.

Secretary Blinkenwho a month ago said the Ukraine war would lead to a strategic defeat for Russia, and earlier this month said Russia had already experienced such a defeatargued before Congress on Tuesday that it must fully fund the State Departments budget in order to ensure a strategic failure for Russia. Senior National Security Council (NSC) officials have echoed that this is a new, explicit goal of the U.S. and its allies.

The statements by the U.S. are not mere rhetoric. Conversations with senior U.S. officials in the State Department, Pentagon, and White House underscore that these goals are being supported by a many-layered, intensive effort by senior officials.

Providing Ukraine all the support it needs lies at the heart of the Wests efforts, and coordinating that effort will be the goal of the multi-nation consultative group, which will meet on a monthly basis going forward.

The effort is helped, of course, by the fact that Russia continues to make decisions that are not only morally reprehensible but also disastrous for its military and country.

The losses sustained by Russian forces are catastrophic. Estimates of those killed in the first two months in the war range from 15,000 to more than 20,000with tens of thousands more wounded or having deserted. The U.K.s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, estimated those figures represent a 25 percent reduction in the Russian invasion combat capability.

Russias economy has been hit hard by sanctions. Estimates suggest the crisis will wipe out more than a decade and a half of Russian growth. Russias own economy ministry predicts the economy could contract this year by between 8.8 percent and 12.4 percent.

Senior U.S. officials noted that Russia is suffering profound self-inflicted wounds in other ways. Its battlefield failures and its clear commission of war crimes have made it increasingly difficulteven for those countries with which it has close ties or which sought to remain neutral at the start of this warto win any meaningful international support.

One senior U.S. national security official said that Russias calamitous performance to date had taken a toll on Moscows relations with China, India, Turkey, and Israel. The official added that, as indicated by Russia-backed far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pens defeat, those who have been associated with Russia have not been helped politically by Russias actions.

This did not, it should be noted, stop Sen. Rand Paul from parroting Russian talking points in Tuesday Senate hearings with Secretary Blinken. Paul asserted the explanation for Russias invasion was tied to a Biden administration push to admit Ukraine into NATO (a lie) and to the fact that Ukraine was part of Russia.

Russia amplified the damage done to its international standing and its own economy this week by cutting off gas supplies to two European NATO countriesPoland and Bulgariabecause they refused to pay for the energy shipments in rubles, as demanded by Moscow.

Vladimir Putin started this war. He did so because, in the past, world leaders were too weak, gullible, or corrupted to stand up to himto deny him the chance to compound past aggression with further brutality.

At the same time, the Biden administration is actively working diplomatically to strengthen its ties with both its allies and with those nations that have been uncomfortable choosing sides in the Ukraine conflict. The president, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Blinken, Secretary Austin and their deputies are holding regular, frequent meetings (virtual and live) with their counterparts in the G7, NATO, the EU, the Quad (the Indo-Pacific partnership including India, Japan, Australia and the US), and via mechanisms like the consultative group mentioned above. These efforts will be continued in the next six weeks with a flurry of high level events including an ASEAN Summit in Washington, a trip to Japan and South Korea, and a NATO Summit and meetings with European leaders in Spain in June.

The U.S. has been coordinating closely with Finland and Sweden, and with NATO partners, to help ensure those two Nordic countries can join the alliance swiftlyif that is what they ultimately choose to do. The U.S. is also working to upgrade NATO capacities along the frontier with Russia.

Notably, a special initiative has been made to find areas of common interest with new non-aligned countries.

This effort has been marked, according to officials involved, not by a desire to make an issue of certain countries decision to not support Ukraines war effort, but instead to focus on ways the U.S. can provide assistance or address specific bilateral issues. This not only would strengthen U.S. ties, but help gain an edge in what is emerging as an era of strategic rivalrynot only with Russia, but with China.

These imperativesconsolidating Russias defeat in Ukraine and strengthening American alliances and friendships for a coming period of potential competition and periodic tensionare supplanting the largely counterterrorism focused-U.S. diplomatic priorities of the past two decades.

Thanks to Russias own blunders, and the efforts of the U.S. and its allies, the picture for Moscow and Putin is looking bleaker by the dayregardless of the final settlement of the war in Ukraine, and without an American or NATO soldier firing a shot.

When this war is over NATO will be larger. Russias frontier with NATO would grow by nearly a thousand miles and, should Finland and Sweden join NATO, its position vis a vis the Baltic Sea and the Arctic would be significantly weakened. NATOs investment in defense is sure to rise and NATO resources deployed closer to the Russian border are certain to grow. The U.S. alone has already committed over $4 billion in security to Ukraine since President Biden took office, and a major new funding initiative is expected very soon according to a senior State Department official.

Russias economy is in shambles and its future looks bleak, as Europe seeks to end dependency on Russian energy. Even sometime-laggard Germany is picking up its pace substantially.

Ukraine will surely emerge stronger with major pledges of assistance, and a fast-tracked EU entry is already in the offing.

Vladimir Putin started this war. He did so because, in the past, world leaders were too weak, gullible, or corrupted to stand up to himto deny him the chance to compound past aggression with further brutality. Now, finally, he has encountered opposition from Ukraine to Brussels to Washington that has resolved not to repeat the mistakes of the past.

Their goal is as ambitious as it is worthy. But it deserves our support because it is the only path to lasting peace along Europes borders with Russia.

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Putin Must Be Stopped Once and for All - The Daily Beast

Bill Clinton says he couldn’t have done anything to prevent Putin’s aggression in Ukraine – Fox News

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Former President Bill Clinton on Tuesday said nothing he could have done as leader of the U.S. would have prevented Russian President Vladimir Putin's path to authoritarianism and his aggressive invasion Ukraine.

"I do not believe that there was anything we could have done to prevent this," Clinton said during a talk at Brown University.

Clinton denied that his administration did anything to isolate Russia or antagonize Putin personally during the 1990s, when his administration oversaw an expansion of NATO following the collapse of the Soviet Union. "It is not true that we did anything to isolate, humiliate or ignore Putin. That's the biggest load of bull you'll ever hear," Clinton said.

HILLARY CLINTON SAYS 'MORE' CAN BE DONE TO HURT PUTIN, HELP UKRAINE: 'DOUBLE DOWN'

U.S. President Bill Clinton shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Assara Guest House while attending the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation annual meeting in Brunei, November 15, 2000. (Reuters Photographer)

Clinton said Putin's desire to build a "clepto-state" and dismantle democracy was not evident during his first presidential term. "By the end of his second term, it was clear that he wanted to stay for life," Clinton said of Putin. "I do not believe that anything we could have done would have done it."

The Clinton administration's decision to expand NATO, which started as a Cold War-era agreement among European countries and the U.S. to counteract the expansions of the Soviet Union, has been criticized amid Russia's two-month old invasion of Ukraine. Putin has cited NATO expansion eastward, and the potential of Ukraine joining NATO, as justifications for his assault on Ukrainian cities.

RUSSIA ACCUSES NATO MEMBERS OF RUNNING PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE

Rajan Menon, author of "Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post-Cold War Order," argued that the Clinton administration cut Russia out of the new European system following the economic collapse after the demise of the Soviet Union. But Clinton said Tuesday that Russia would have been welcomed into NATO.

"There was nothing preventing them (Russia) from joining NATO if they thought that their biggest security threats would come from non-state actors," Clinton said.

Recounting his administration's actions to cooperate with Russia, Clinton related one instance where "neo-con" rhetoric and the potential for a Republican president scared Putin from further disarmament.

U.S. President Bill Clinton, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori (L-R). (Reuters)

Ahead of the 2000 U.S. presidential election, Clinton said he met with Putin, who assumed the Russian presidency that year, and discussed an existing agreement to withdraw NATO, EU and Russian forces from each country's borders in order to ease tensions between the west and the former Soviet Union.

"We had a great talk, but I was left completely uncertain about what [Putin] was going to do," Clinton said. At the meeting, Clinton recalled Putin said he would not withdraw troops from the borders, which Putin's predecessor Boris Yeltsin had agreed to do, because he was concerned that if George W. Bush won the election, the Republican administration would not abide by the agreement.

GEORGE W. BUSH AND BILL CLINTON VISIT UKRAINIAN CHURCH TO LAY FLOWERS, PAY RESPECTS

"He said, 'I've been reading everything these Neo-Cons are saying, and I don't think they're going to do it. I think they'll stick it to you,'" Clinton recalled Putin saying.

Putin asked if Bush could win the election, according to Clinton, who said Bush could win the election but then-Vice President Al Gore was likely to win in the end.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, April 6, 2022. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

According to Clinton, Putin said, "OK, if [Gore] wins, he'll need a victory. So we'll do this deal shortly after he's in office and he'll get a little boost, and I'll get the deal I signed up for."

BUSH CALLS RUSSIA WAR ON UKRAINE 'GRAVEST SECURITY CRISIS' IN EUROPE SINCE WORLD WAR II

Clinton said he recounted that anecdote to show that, "First, Putin was smart. And second, privately, he was honest with me."

"All these people, they can win for a while," Clinton said of authoritarian leaders like Putin and Chinese President Xi Jingping. "But they can't win in the long run because it doesn't make any sense as the people of Ukraine are teaching Putin every single day. He may win there somewhere, in whatever he thinks he can do in eastern Ukraine, but I don't think so, not if we all stay hitched."

Clinton was speaking at a memorial event for Casey Shearer the son of Clinton's longtime friend and advisor Derek Shearer a Brown University student who suddenly died of an undetected heart condition days before graduating in May 2000.

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The former president also defended his decision to welcome China into the World Trade Organization.

"Did I make a mistake giving them most favored nation status?" Clinton asked of China. "You can argue that flat around, but I don't think so given what we knew then, because I assumed that we'd be better off having them in a system where at least we could have a legal forum to challenge non-lawful actions, and where we would at least be encouraging them to work with the rest of the world."

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Bill Clinton says he couldn't have done anything to prevent Putin's aggression in Ukraine - Fox News

Opinion | Russias Putin Now Seems to Believe Conspiracy Theories – The New York Times

Vladimir Putins Russia is driven by conspiracy theories.

For two decades, journalists and officials, in concert with the Kremlin, have merrily spread disinformation. However far-fetched or fantastical that the C.I.A. was plotting to oust Mr. Putin from power, for example these tales served an obvious purpose: to bolster the regime and guarantee public support for its actions. Whatever the personal views of members of the political establishment, it seemed clear that the theories played no role in political calculations. They were stories designed to make sense of what the regime, for its own purposes, was doing.

Not anymore. Since the beginning of Russias invasion of Ukraine two months ago, the gap between conspiracy theory and state policy has closed to a vanishing point. Conspiratorial thinking has taken complete hold of the country, from top to bottom, and now seems to be the motivating force behind the Kremlins decisions. And Mr. Putin who previously kept his distance from conspiracy theories, leaving their circulation to state media and second-rank politicians is their chief promoter.

It is impossible to know what is inside Mr. Putins head, of course. But to judge from his bellicose and impassioned speeches before the invasion and since then, he may believe the conspiracy theories he repeats. Here are five of the most prevalent theories that the president has endorsed, with increasing fervor, over the past decade. Together, they tell a story of a regime disintegrating into a morass of misinformation, paranoia and mendacity, at a terrible cost to Ukraine and the rest of the world.

In 2007, at his annual national news conference, Mr. Putin was asked a strange question. What did he think about the former U.S. secretary of state Madeleine Albrights comment that Russias natural riches should be redistributed and controlled by America? Mr. Putin replied that such ideas were shared by certain politicians but he didnt know about the remark.

Thats because it was entirely made up. Journalists at Rossiyskaya Gazeta, a state-owned newspaper, had invented the quote on the grounds that Russian intelligence was able to read Ms. Albrights mind. For years, there appeared to be no mention of it. Then in 2015, the secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, repeated it. He reported serenely that she had said Russia should not control Siberia or its Far East and thats why America was involved in Ukraine, where Russia was busy fomenting a conflict in the eastern part of the country. At the time it felt as though Mr. Putins colleague had lost the plot.

But in May 2021, Mr. Putin showed that the theory hadnt been forgotten. Everyone, the president declared, wants to bite us or bite off a piece of Russia because it is unjust for Russia alone to possess the riches of a region like Siberia. An invented quote had become fact, legitimizing Mr. Putins ever more hostile approach to the West.

NATO is Mr. Putins worst nightmare: Its military operations in Serbia, Iraq and Libya have planted the fear that Russia will be the military alliances next target. Its also a convenient boogeyman that animates the anti-Western element of Mr. Putins electorate. In his rhetoric, NATO is synonymous with the United States, the military hand of the collective West that will suffocate Russia whenever it becomes weak.

So it makes sense that NATO is the subject of some of the regimes most persistent conspiracy theories, which see the organizations hand behind popular uprisings around the world. Since 2014, they have focused on Ukraine. Since Ukraines Maidan revolution that year, in which Ukrainians forced the ouster of the Russia-friendly Viktor Yanukovych, Mr. Putin and his subordinates propagated the notion that Ukraine was turning into a puppet state under the control of the United States. In a long essay published in July 2021, Mr. Putin gave fullest expression to this theory, claiming that Ukraine was fully controlled by the West and that NATO was militarizing the country.

His speech on Feb. 21, just days before the invasion, confirmed that NATOs activities in Ukraine dragging the country into the Wests orbit were, for Mr. Putin, the chief reason for Russias aggression. Crucially, NATO was what divided Russians and Ukrainians, who otherwise, in his view, were one people. It was Western military activity that had turned Ukraine into an anti-Russia, harboring enemies aiming at Russian humiliation.

NATO and the West menace Russia not just externally. They also cause trouble within. Since at least 2004, Mr. Putin has been suspicious of domestic opposition, fearing a Ukrainian-style revolution. Fortress Russia, forever undermined by foreign enemies, became a feature of Kremlin propaganda. But it was the Maidan revolution that brought about a confluence in the Kremlins messaging: Not only were dissidents bringing discord to Russia, but they were also doing so under orders from the West. The aim was to turn Russia into a mess like Ukraine.

In this line of thinking, opposition forces were a fifth column infiltrating the otherwise pure motherland and it led to the branding of activists, journalists and organizations as foreign agents. Though Mr. Putin could never bring himself to utter the name of his fiercest critic, Alexei Navalny, Mr. Putin stated that Mr. Navalny was a C.I.A. agent whose investigative work used materials from the U.S. special services. Even Mr. Navalnys poisoning in August 2020 was, according to the president, a plot perpetrated to blacken Mr. Putins reputation.

The clearing away of domestic opposition ruthlessly undertaken by the Kremlin in recent years can now be seen as a prerequisite for the invasion of Ukraine. Since the war began, the last vestiges of independent media have been closed down, and hundreds of thousands of people have fled Russia. Any criticism of the war can land Russians in prison for 15 years and earn them the title of traitor, working nefariously in the service of Russias Western enemies. In a sign that the association of dissent with foreign enemies is now complete, Mr. Putins supporters have taken to marking the doors of opposition activists.

This claim starkly captured by Mr. Putins statement that in the West, children can play five or six gender roles, threatening Russias core population has been brewing for a decade. A criminal case in 2012 against Pussy Riot, an anarchic punk band critical of the regime, was the tipping point. The Kremlin sought to portray the band and its followers as a set of sexually subversive provocateurs whose aim was to destroy the Russian Orthodox Church and traditional values. The complaints spread to foreign nongovernmental organizations and L.G.B.T.Q. activists, accused of corrupting Russians from infancy. Soon, anti-L.G.B.T.Q. scaremongering became a major plank of Kremlin policy.

It was remarkably effective: By 2020, one-fifth of Russians surveyed said they wanted to eliminate lesbian and gay people from Russian society. They were responding to a propaganda campaign, undertaken by state media, claiming that L.G.B.T.Q. rights were an invention of the West, with the potential to shatter Russian social stability. Mr. Putin, unveiling his partys manifesto ahead of 2021s parliamentary elections, took things a step further claiming that when people in the West werent trying to outright abolish the concept of gender, they were allowing teachers in schools to decide on a childs gender, irrespective of parental wishes. It was, he said, a crime against humanity.

The Wests progressive attitudes to sexual diversity eventually played into the Ukrainian war effort. In March, Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, claimed the invasion was necessary to protect Russian speakers in Ukraine from a West that insists any entrant to its club of nations host a gay pride march. The supposed predations of L.G.B.T.Q. rights had to be met with righteous force.

The newest of the Kremlins major hoaxes, this conspiracy theory has flourished since the start of the war though it echoes Mr. Putins remarks in 2017, when he accused Western experts of collecting biological material from Russians for scientific experiments.

In the second week of the war, regime-friendly bloggers and then top-ranking politicians, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, claimed that Russian intelligence had obtained evidence that America and Ukraine were developing biological weapons in the form of disease-ridden bats and birds to spread viruses in Russia. The Ministry of Defense suggested it had unearthed documents that confirmed the collaboration.

To add ballast to the claim, state media repeated a remark made by Tucker Carlson, a Fox News host, that the White House was involved in biowarfare against Russia in Ukraine. There was, of course, no credible evidence for anything of the sort. But the story spread across Russia, and the Kremlin even convened a U.N. Security Council meeting to discuss it. After all, Hunter Biden was probably financing it.

All five of these conspiracy theories, and many more, have found their place in wartime Russia. They are used to justify the war in Ukraine, both by ordinary citizens and by the Kremlin. Whats more, conspiracy theories have become a way to reject mounting evidence of Russian atrocities which are recast instead as foreign skulduggery. The crimes at Bucha, for example, were immediately blamed on the Ukrainians, who apparently either staged the photos or killed innocent people to set up the Russian Army. Hollywood, meanwhile, is believed to be working hard to produce scenes of mass poisoning to further discredit Russia. The C.I.A. is spinning its web.

From battles of words on talk shows and online, conspiracy theories have effectively turned into a weapon that kills real people. Thats scary enough. But the most frightening thing is that Mr. Putin, waging war without restraint, seems to believe them.

Ilya Yablokov (@ilya_yablokov) is a lecturer in journalism and digital media at the University of Sheffield in England, the author of Fortress Russia: Conspiracy Theories in the Post-Soviet World and a co-author of Russia Today and Conspiracy Theories: People, Power, Politics on RT.

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Opinion | Russias Putin Now Seems to Believe Conspiracy Theories - The New York Times

Beyond Putin: Russian imperialism is the No. 1 threat to global security – Atlantic Council

Since the invasion of Ukraine began two months ago, Western leaders including US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have sought to place the blame exclusively on Vladimir Putin while absolving the Russian people. Such assertions may be politically convenient but they are also dangerously misleading. Far from dragging his reluctant compatriots into war, Putin is himself a symptom the unapologetically imperialistic outlook that shapes modern Russias relationship with the outside world and fuels the countrys insatiable appetite for external aggression.

An understanding of Russias imperial instincts is essential for anyone looking to make sense of the seemingly senseless war crimes currently taking place in Ukraine. After all, it was not Putin who committed rape, torture, and mass murder in towns and villages across Ukraine. Putin did not fly the jets or fire the artillery that reduced entire Ukrainian cities to rubble. Likewise, he did not personally produce the endless stream of Russian propaganda films, TV shows, fake news bulletins, and social media posts dehumanizing Ukrainians and demonizing the West. These crimes were only possible thanks to the millions of Russians who willingly participated in the process or offered their enthusiastic support over a period of many years.

While politicians and commentators in the West continue to promote the comforting notion that Russians are themselves victims of Putins regime, virtually all the available evidence points to strong Russian public support for the war in Ukraine. A recent survey conducted by Russias only internationally respected independent pollster, the Levada Center, found that 81% of Russians back the invasion of Ukraine with just 14% opposed. Another recent Levada Center poll identified a 12% surge in Vladimir Putins approval rating since the beginning of the war. These results have been mirrored in numerous other polls and surveys.

Meanwhile, the anti-war movement inside Russia remains underwhelming. There have been some public protests in major Russian cities, but these rallies have failed to attract significant numbers and been easily contained by the authorities. Rather than engaging in anti-war activism, most of the Russians who claim to oppose the regime have stayed silent or chosen exile and voluntarily left the country.

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Positive Russian attitudes toward the war are rooted in longstanding perceptions of Ukraine as part of Russias imperial heartlands. Despite the passage of three decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, many Russians have never fully come to terms with the idea of an independent Ukraine and continue to regard the country as an indivisible element of historic Russia that has been artificially separated from the motherland.

Putin did not invent such sentiments but he has proven highly skilled at exploiting them. In his many speeches and essays on the Ukraine issue, he has consistently appealed to Russias imperial aspirations while playing on widespread resentment at the countrys post-Soviet humiliations and loss of superpower status. When Putin laments the fall of the USSR as the demise of historical Russia, ordinary Russians understand that it is primarily Ukraine he has in mind.

The Russian leaders refusal to recognize Ukrainian statehood is not only a rejection of the post-1991 settlement. It is entirely in line with traditional Russian thinking and echoes key tenets of Czarist imperial doctrine dating back centuries. Putin routinely denies Ukraines right to exist and has frequently accused modern Ukraine of occupying historically Russian lands while dismissing Ukraines entire centuries-long statehood struggle as a Western ploy to destabilize Russia. On the eve of the invasion, he called Ukraine an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space.

Putin is particularly fond of declaring that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. This insistence that Ukrainians and Russians are part of the same whole has long been a central theme of Russian imperial propaganda toward Ukraine and provides the ideological basis for the current war. By positioning Ukraine as rightfully Russian, it reframes the unprovoked invasion of a peaceful neighbor as a justified response to a grave historical injustice.

In recent months, the Russian ruler has gone even further. He has branded modern Ukraine an anti-Russia that can no longer be tolerated while claiming the country has been taken over by the West. This resonates deeply with the Russian public, which has traditionally associated any manifestations of Ukrainian statehood with treachery and extremism.

We are currently witnessing the criminal consequences of these imperial delusions. Russian soldiers who have been encouraged to dismiss Ukrainians as traitors and view Ukraine itself as an anti-Russian invention are now engaging in war crimes that are entirely in keeping with the genocidal tone adopted by Putin and other Kremlin officials. As Voltaire once warned, Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.

On the domestic front, the Kremlin-controlled mainstream media openly discusses the need to destroy Ukraine. For example, an article published by Russian state news agency RIA Novosti on April 3 made clear that Putins talk of de-nazification is actually code for the de-Ukrainianization of Ukraine. This chilling text laid out a detailed plan for the elimination of the Ukrainian nation and was branded a genocide handbook by Yale historian Timothy Snyder.

If Russian imperialism is not confronted and defeated in Ukraine, other countries will soon face similar threats. While Ukraine appears to be a particular obsession for both Putin and the wider Russian public, the list of other potential victims is long. The Baltic states and Moldova are among the most likely to become targets of Russian imperial aggression, while the nations of Central Asia are clearly at risk. It is also worth noting that Poland and Finland were once part of the Russian Empire that Putin longs to resurrect.

For almost three decades, Western leaders have approached successive acts of Russian imperial aggression as isolated incidents and have sought to downplay their significance while focusing on the economic advantages of continuing to do business with Moscow. This has only served to encourage the Kremlin. The Chechen wars of the early post-Soviet years were followed by the 2008 invasion of Georgia and the 2014 seizure of Crimea. The current war is the latest milestone in this grim sequence but it will not be the last. Resurgent Russian imperialism now clearly poses the biggest single challenge to global security. Countering this threat must be the international communitys top priority.

Volodymyr Vakhitov is a researcher at the Kyiv School of Economics. Natalia Zaika is a researcher at the Kyiv School of Economics.

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

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Image: People wave Russian flags during a pro-war rally in Moscow. March 18, 2022. (RIA Novosti Host Photo Agency/Evgeny Biyatov via REUTERS)

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Beyond Putin: Russian imperialism is the No. 1 threat to global security - Atlantic Council

Father of slain Ukrainian baby calls Putin ‘terrorist’ and ‘murderer’ – New York Post

The father of the 3-month-old Odessa girl killed along with her mother and grandmother by a Russian missile called Putin a terrorist in charge of a terrorist-state at her funeral Wednesday.

Putin is the terrorist, and Russia is a terrorist-state, a murderer, Yuri Glodan said, according to the British Russia-based news agency East2West news.

Parents should not bury their children, he said.We must instead enjoy life, raise our children, rejoice in the sun, the people, people must not die.

Glodans daughter Kira Glodan, his wife Valerie Glodan, and his mother-in-law Lyudmila were all killed Saturday, after their home was hit in a Russian airstrike.

Ukrainian authorities said Russian bombers hit a military facility and two residential buildings Saturday, killing the Glodan family and five others, according to Ukrainian newspaper Ukrayinska Pravda.

So far, eight deaths have been confirmed, including a 3-month-old baby, a little girl from Odessa who never got a chance to live, Odessa mayor Gennadiy Trukhanov said Saturday.

To Russia, he added, You will burn in hell, you scum!

Also among the dead was a couple expecting their first child, East2West reported.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kulebalikewise called the attacks terrorism.

The only aim of Russian missile strikes on Odessa is terror, Kulebaposted on Twitter. Russia must be designated a state sponsor of terrorism We need a wall between civilization and barbarians striking peaceful cities with missiles.

Russias Ministry of Defense confirmed Saturday that it conducted airstrikes in the Odessa area but claimed that a logistics base at a nearby Ukrainian military airfield was the intended target.

A historic port city on the Black Sea, Odessa has escaped most of the horrors of war since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February.

But the weekend airstrikes along with the explosions in the nearby region of Transnistria across the border raise concerns that the city of 1 million may get caught up further in the fight.

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Father of slain Ukrainian baby calls Putin 'terrorist' and 'murderer' - New York Post

Putin could withdraw from Ukraine because of massive popularity in Russia, says Boris Johnson – The Independent

Vladimir Putin is so popular in Russia that he has the political space to withdraw his forces from Ukraine, said Boris Johnson.

The prime minister said the Russian president still has massive backing from his own people despite international outrage over the invasion.

The Russian public overwhelming back Putin, Mr Johnson told Talk TV. Therefore he has the political margin for manoeuvre from within Russia Putin has far more political space to back down, to withdraw.

The PM added: There could come a point when he could say to the Russian people, The military-technical operation that we launched in Ukraine has been accomplished. He has a lot of room for manoeuvre.

Mr Johnsonalso said he did not expect Putin to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine if he faced more military failures in the country saying he was not worried about the scenario.

He also rejected Moscows claim that the UK was engaged in a proxy war with Russia. Its very important we dont accept the way the Russians are trying to frame whats going on in Ukraine, Mr Johnson said.

The PM dismissed SergeiLavrovs comments about the increased risk a nuclearwar, after the Russian foreign minister claimed Nato was in essence engaged in a proxywarby supplying Ukraine with weaponry.

Earlier on Tuesday the Armed Forces minister James Heappey backed Ukrainian strikes on targets behind Russian lines even if the weapons used have been supplied by the UK saying it was completely legitimate.

Mr Johnson said: We dont want the crisis to escalate beyond Ukraines border, but as James Heappey said, they have a right to defend themselves.

The prime minister said it was quite extraordinary that Sweden and Finland had said they wanted to join Nato warning Putin that western nations would provide more weapons and share intelligence with Ukraine.

He added: I have a lot sympathy with individual Russians, with Russia as country its a fantastic country. But Putins regime is engaged in a diabolical attempt to crush the life out of the Ukrainians.

The PMdid not rule out a prisoner swap to free a Briton who has been captured by Russian forces but said his government could not pre-empt what decisions may be made by Ukraines leaders.

The family of Aiden Aslin, who has been captured during the Ukrainian war, want Russia to free him after he appeared in a video asking to be part of a prisoner swap in exchange for pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk, held by Ukraine.

On the chances of a prisoner swap, MrJohnsonsaid: We will do what we can. Clearly it is for the Ukrainians. They have the other individual who is part of the equation. We cant really pre-empt what they may decide.

Mr Johnson said Mr Aslin and others were entitled to rights under the Geneva Convention, adding: They should not be paraded in front of the cameras. They should not be made to give hostage videos that is a breach of their rights as prisoners of war.

The prime ministersaid Facebook was removing a video clip of Mr Alsin comes after culture secretary Nadine Dorries called Nick Clegg, vice president of global affairs at parent company Meta.

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Putin could withdraw from Ukraine because of massive popularity in Russia, says Boris Johnson - The Independent

The Bizarre Russian Prophet Rumored to Have Putins Ear – The Bulwark

The madness of Vladimir Putins war in Ukraine has once again turned the spotlight on the creepy, enigmatic guru who has been called Putins brain or, irresistibly, Putins Rasputin: maverick political philosopher Aleksandr Dugin. And indeed, in many ways this is Dugins moment: For more than a quarter century, he has been talking about an eternal civilizational war between Russia and the West and about Russias destiny to build a vast Eurasian empire, beginning with a reconquista of Ukraine. Both the war in Ukraine and the new Cold War against the West can be said to represent the triumphor the debacleof Dugins vision.

The 60-year-old Dugin may or may not be Putins whisperer; there is no evidence that the two men have actually met. But his influence on the Putin-era ruling class in Russia is unquestionably real and scary. For one thing, much as the word fascist gets frivolously thrown around, Dugin is actually a onetime self-proclaimed fascist, albeit of the real fascism has never been tried variety. Whats more, there is every reason to think that while he dropped the label, his ideology has not changed much.

But even that understates the sheer weirdness of the man described in a 2017 book on the rise of Russias new nationalism as a former dissident, pamphleteer, hipster and guitar-playing poet who emerged from the libertine era of pre-perestroika Muscovite bohemia to become a rabble-rousing intellectual, a lecturer at the military academy, and ultimately a Kremlin operative. (The author, former Financial Times Moscow bureau chief Charles Clover, had extensive conversations with Dugin and still failed to crack the enigma.)

For instance: Dugin has had a lifelong obsession with the occult, ranging from the legacy of magician and huckster Aleister Crowley (a 1995 video shows him reciting a poem at a ceremony honoring Crowley in Moscow) to much more sinister Nazi occultism. His first appearance on Russian television, in 1992, was as an expert commentator in a shlocky documentary that explored the esoteric secrets of the Third Reich, which he claimed to have studied in KGB archives. H now rails against Ukrainian Nazis but once penned a poem in which the apocalyptic advent of an avatar culminates in a radiant Himmler rising from the grave. (While he later tried to disown this verse, it was posted on his website under a name he has elsewhere acknowledged as his pseudonym.) Dugins oeuvre also includes a 1997 essay proposing that the notorious Russian serial killer Andrei Chikatilo, who gruesomely murdered more than fifty young women and children between 1978 and 1990, should be regarded as a practitioner of Dionysian sacraments in which the killer/torturer and the victim transcend their metaphysical dualism and become one. He talks casually and cheerfully about living in the end times. He preaches national and religious revival but can also, according to Clover, make such quips as, There are only two real things in Russia: Oil sales and theft. The rest is all a kind of theater.

Many details of Dugins life are obscure, no doubt due to some extent to deliberate mystification on his part. It has been claimed, for instance, that his father was either a colonel or a lieutenant general in the GRU, the fearsome Soviet military intelligence agency, and used this position both to protect him and perhaps to facilitate his access to the military and intelligence elites. Extremism researcher Anton Shekhovtsov, who has delved into Dugins background, asserts that the reality is far more prosaic and that Dugin pre was an officer in the Soviet, later Russian, customs service. According to Clover, Dugin has claimed that his rebellious youthful anticswhich included involvement, at 19, in an underground circle that dabbled in mysticism with a neofascist slantcaused his father to be transferred from the GRU to the customs service; but Clover also quotes Dugin as saying that his father never supported him and that they barely had a relationship. (Dugins parents were divorced when he was 3 years old.)

Expelled from college for his unorthodox activities (which included the translation and samizdat publication of Pagan Imperialism by Italian far-right intellectual Julius Evola, another fascist with a mystical bent), Dugin made a living for a while as a language tutor and freelance translator. But he clearly wanted more, and the changes under Mikhail Gorbachevwhich included a drastic relaxation of state control over intellectual and political lifeopened up new avenues. In 1988, Dugin got involved in Pamyat (Memory), a patriotic and anti-Zionist movement notorious for its anti-Semitism, but was eventually expelled for murky reasons (Satanism, according to some). He also traveled to Europe and cultivated ties with far-right figures such as French counter-Enlightenment author Alain de Benoist. Interestingly, despite benefitting from the reforms, Dugin sympathized with the hardline coup against Gorbachev in August 1991 and reportedly even tried to get weapons so that he could volunteer to fight for the coup plotters State Emergency Committee.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, Dugin became involved in various marginal groups that lived the horseshoe theory by trying to synthesize far-left and far-right ideology, including the red-brown National Bolshevik Party which he co-founded with the eccentric poet Eduard Limonov. (A 1992 Dugin essay tried to reclaim the term red-brown as a positive thing, the natural colors of our blood and our soil; another piece, from 1997, hailed the dawn of a new Russian fascism, boundless as our land and red as our blood.)

At first, Dugins efforts to enter public life did not get him very far; when he ran for the Duma in 1995 on a National Bolshevik platform in a St. Petersburg district, he got less than 1 percent of the vote, despite a tantalizing campaign poster promising that the secrets will be unveiled. Yet he was helped by mysterious connections to the Russian military: At some point during the 1990s, he became a lecturer at the senior staff college of the Russian military, the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia. Considering that were talking about a neofascist crank with a fixation on the occult, this raises eyebrows.

Dugins true breakthrough was the 1997 book Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia, a 600-page treatise that not only sold well but made its author a respectable pundit. It also quickly became part of the curriculum at the General Staff Academy, other military and police academies, and some elite institutions of higher learning. Writing in the journal Harvard Ukrainian Studies in early 2004 (the issue is dated spring 2001 but was obviously published later, since the article refers to events from late 2003), Hoover Institution scholar John B. Dunlop concluded: There has perhaps not been another book published in Russia during the post-communist period that has exerted an influence on Russian military, police, and foreign policy elites comparable to that of . . . Foundations of Geopolitics.

A prolific scribbler, Dugin had published seven other books between 1990 and 1997, but Foundations of Geopolitics was his first effort to go mainstream. The earlier books had been heavy on occult lore about numerology and other mystical sciences, the lost and magical Hyperborean race, and esoteric orders such as the Freemasons, the Knights Templar and the Rosicrucians. Dugins 1992 book Conspirology, for example, had framed the historical conflicts between reason and faith as a literal struggle between two secret organizations, the rationalist Order of the Dead Head and the faith-and-love-based Order of the Living Heartand thats the condensed and coherent version.

Foundations of Geopolitics, on which Clover believes Dugin may have had help from faculty members at the General Staff Academy, offered a much more sober analysis and steered clear of mysticism and occult metaphysics. Yet the theme of a cosmic battle between good and evil was still very much a part of Dugins thesis. Foundations of Geopolitics posits a fundamental antagonism between land-based and seafaring civilizations, or Eurasianism and Atlanticismthe latter represented primarily by the United States and England, the former by Russia. While the idea of conflict between land-based and seafaring powers was borrowed from the fairly obscure Edwardian British geographer Halford Mackinder, Dugin reconceptualized this rivalry as a spiritual struggle, in terms drawn largely from twentieth-century German anti-liberal philosopher and prominent Nazi Carl Schmitt (with additional borrowings from earlier Eurasianist intellectual Lev Gumilev, son of two celebrated poets, who thought that ethnicity derived from space radiation).

In Dugins scheme, the values of land-based civilizations are those of traditionalism (The hardness of the land is culturally embodied in the hardness and stability of social traditions), community, faith, service, and the subordination of the individual to the group and to authority, while the values of seafaring civilization are mobility, trade, innovation, rationality, political freedom, and individualism. Also: Eurasian good, Atlanticist bad.

The other central message of the book is that, for Russia, its empire or bust. Dugin asserted that Russian nationalism has a global scope, associated more with space than with blood ties: Outside of empire, Russians lose their identity and disappear as a nation. In his vision, Russias destiny is to lead a Eurasian empire that stretches from Dublin to Vladivostok.

In a country reeling from a botched transition to a market-based democracy and coping with the abrupt loss of superpower status, this call to imperial greatness fell on fertile soilespecially after the devastating economic crisis of 1998 seemed to be the death knell of liberal hopes. It was particularly welcome to the military and political elites.

In short order, Dugin, only yesterday a marginal crank, became a pundit with close proximity to power. By 2001, wrote Dunlop, he had formed close ties with individuals in the presidential administration, the secret services, the Russian military, and the leadership of the Duma; among other things, he had become a consultant to Russian State Duma Speaker Gennady Seleznev and to top Putin adviser Sergei Glazyev. The Russian media, then still relatively free, began to talk of Dugins Eurasianism as a new state-favored ideology. The Eurasia movement, which Dugin launched the same year to promote the Eurasianist agenda and resist Atlanticist influences, attracted government officials, members of the establishment media, and retired and current members of intelligence and state security agencies. In 2003, the movement went international, claiming to have a presence in 29 countries in Europe, the Americas and the Middle East, including 36 chapters in the former Soviet republics. Its most active wing was the Eurasian Youth Union, heavily focused on pro-Kremlin activism in Ukraine; among the groups more notable exploits was a 2007 attack vandalizing a Moscow exhibition on the Ukrainian Holodomor, the Stalin-era terror-famine.

Toward the end of the 2000s, Duginarmed with a hastily acquired doctoratealso completed his ascent to academic respectability. In 2009, he was appointed chair of the international relations section of the sociology department at Moscow State University (despite being a guest lecturer rather than a full-time faculty member). He also founded and oversaw a Center for Conservative Studies within the sociology department, intended to train an academic and government elite of conservative ideologues.

Should Dugin be treated as a real philosopher? In a recent long essay in Haaretz, Dr. Armit Vazhirsky, a historian at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, argues that, despite his (to put it mildly) eccentric history, his critique of liberalism in such works as his book The Fourth Political Theory (2009), needs to be seriously engaged.

Im not convinced.

Dugin is a gifted man and a very erudite autodidactunquestionably smart enough to offer a convincing simulacrum of intellectual discourse. Yet detractors such as Russian political scientist Victor Shnirelman point out that he has repeatedly and opportunistically adjusted and overhauled his argumentsfor instance, transferring much of his analysis of the Eurasian vs. Atlanticist clash of civilizations from earlier writings in which the opposing forces were Aryan (good) vs. Semitic (bad). The only constant is hatred of liberalism and modernity.

As befits a practitioner of the horseshoe theory, Dugin can capably mimic and channel anti-liberal broadsides from both the left and the right. Some passages in his writings could have come straight from Jacobin magazine, arguing that liberal capitalism is responsible for the slave trade, Native American genocide, and environmental catastrophe, or that liberalism seeks to assimilate everyone to the standards of the rich, rational white male; other passages could have been penned by Sohrab Ahmari, such as the warning in Fourth Political Theory that liberalisms rejection of tradition and constraints on individual freedom logically leads to not only loss of national and cultural identity, but even of sexual identity and, eventually, human identity as well (my translation). Then, just when you expect Dugin to defend sexual traditionalism, he invokes a gender-norm-smashing paradigm that has one left-wing commentator wondering if he is an undercover queer theorist.

But keep reading, and you will find text that sounds more like the musings of a genocidal maniac. For instance, the comments about the evils of unchecked liberalism in Fourth Political Theory are followed, a few paragraphs down, by this discussion of the coming battle that will happen when the metaphysical significance of liberalism and its fatal victory is fully understood: This evil can be vanquished only by tearing it out root and branch, and I do not rule out the possibility that such a victory will require wiping off the face of the earth those spiritual and physical territories where the global heresy which insists that man is the measure of all things first emerged. In case the location of those physical territories is unclear, the next line urges a world crusade against the USA and the West.

There is little reason to think that Dugin has discarded his flirtations with Nazism (it is perhaps revealing that, in Foundations of Geopolitics, he urges Russia to form an axis with Germany and Japan as the core of its strategy). Nor has he moved on from his occult obsessions, despite a nominal conversion to Russian Orthodoxywhich he has tried to syncretize with various neopagan and esoteric teachings (including the work of Aleister Crowley, a reputed Satanist). A lengthy two-part essay he wrote in 2019 for the Izborsk Club, a socially conservative website he cofounded, returns to his old favorite Julius Evola and then segues into an abstruse discussion of Hindu and Zoroastrian eschatology.

Which brings us to another startling aspect of the Dugin persona: his fascination with the apocalyptic. The Fourth Political Theory at one point flatly states that the new theory and practice the book seeks to formulate is invalid if it doesnt bring about the End of Time. A video of a 2012 Dugin lecture at Moscows New University shows him offering an eclectic stew of ideasthe Christian apocalypse, the dark Kali Yuga cycle from Hindu mysticism, the French metaphysician Ren Gunon, global warmingto make the case we are obviously living in the end times and that the end of the world is something we should actively desire. For one thing, isnt it great to know how the story ends? For another, isnt it terrible to be alive and know that you will never be God? And isnt this world an illusion anyway?

The deeper one goes down the Dugin rabbit hole, the more one starts to wonder whether he believes anything he says and whether his entire career is a long, elaborate mystification. As Clover puts it, he is, in equal parts, a monomaniacal nineteenth-century Slavophile conservative and a smug twenty-first-century postmodernist who expertly deconstructs his arguments as rapidly as he makes them. Or perhaps, in even bigger part, hes a charlatan. The only relevant question is whether his proximity to the Kremlins inner sanctum is such that his talk about the end times could be something more serious than a crazy prophets rantings or a postmodernists word games.

Whether Dugin ever actually was Putins minence grise is also far from settled. Some scholars such as Finnish political scientist Jussi Backman have strongly disputed these claims, pointing out that there is no evidence of closeness between the two men. Putin, at any rate, has never mentioned Dugin in public; his acknowledged quasi-fascist guru is twentieth-century Russian nationalist Ivan Ilyin (1883-1954), whom he has quoted in several speeches and whose collection of essays, Our Tasks, he sent to Russian regional governors and senior officials for as a Christmas gift in 2013.

Dugin, on his part, has had a love/hate relationship with Putin over the years, admiring him as the leader who reclaimed Russias sovereignty and routed the Western-style liberals but deploring his pro-capitalist tendencies and his alliances with the West, particularly his participation in George W. Bushs War on Terror. (The rabidly anti-American Dugin was an early 9/11 truther, asserting in an interview in October 2001 that the United States itself was probably behind the attacks and was using them to shore up American hegemony.) Still displaying his penchant for mystical terminology, he has spoken of the conflict between the solar Putin, the heroic fighter against Western evil and for Russias messianic destiny, and the lunar Putin, the pragmatic rationalist who wants a thriving economy and a partnership with the West.

He has been coy on whether or not he knows Putin personally, claiming to be in contact with him in a 2012 interview on the American white-nationalist website Countercurrents but flatly denying it in conversations with Clover. Most recently, when asked whether he communicates with Putin in an interview in the Russian newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets, he replied, Thats a question I never answer.

In November 2007, several months after Putins famous Munich speech signaling a sharp anti-Western turn and challenging the U.S.-led international world order, Dugin made a curious comment in an interview with the Eurazia TV web channel:

In my opinion, Putin is becoming more and more like Dugin, or at least implementing the program I have been building my entire life.. . . The closer he comes to us, the more he becomes himself. When he becomes 100 percent Dugin, he will become 100 percent Putin.

And indeed, many aspects of Kremlin strategy in the Putin years reflect, to a startling extent, Dugins proposals going back to the late 1990s. That includes the hybrid warfare of subverting democracies from within and exploiting their internal divisions, something Dugin advocated in Foundations of Geopolitics. It includes cultivating both far-right and far-left movements and groups as antiliberal allies. It includes the focus on homosexuality as the ultimate symbol of Western decadence: In a 2003 interview with the Ukrainian website Glavred.info, Dugin warned that embracing a pro-Western Atlanticist model would expose Ukraine to the menace of gays, and homosexual and lesbian marriage. (Dugins homophobic crusade has some ironic personal twists: His former National Bolshevik associate Eduard Limonov was the openly bisexual author of an autobiographical novel that often borders on gay porn, while Dugins first wife and the mother of his son, Evgeniya Debryanskaya, is an out lesbian who started Russias first gay-rights group in 1990.)

Even the Putin regimes preoccupation with Ukraine is anticipated by Foundations of Geopolitics, where Ukraine occupies a central place in the clash-of-civilizations scheme as laid out by Dugin. The book stresses, again and again, that Ukrainian sovereignty is an intolerable threat to the Eurasian project. The existence of Ukraine within its present borders and with its present status of a sovereign state, Dugin warns, is equivalent to the delivering of a monstrous blow to the geopolitical security of Russia; it represents the same thing as the invasion of Russias territory. Remarkably, this passage is from twenty-five years agoeight years before Ukraine turned westward during the Orange Revolution and ten years before there was any talk of Ukraine joining NATO.

Clover reports that it was Dugin who revived the term Novorossiya, or New Russia, as the preferred designation for Eastern Ukraine, using it three years before Putin did. Did he inspire Putin, or merely (as he has often claimed) intuit which way things were going? Or was he floating a trial balloon at his Kremlin patrons behest? Nobody knows. However, its a fact that in 2014, Dugin was not merely cheering for the Kremlins Novorossiya Project of building pro-Russian enclaves in Eastern Ukraine but actively helping: There is a video in which he strategizes with a separatist activist on Skype. The foreign observers who were invited to monitor Crimeas referendum on joining Russia were mainly drawn from Dugins network of Eurasianist political figures, running the gamut from Stalinist to fascist. Moskovsky Komsomolets reports that two of the main founders of the Donetsk Peoples Republic, businessman and politician Aleksandr Borodai and retired military officer and possible KGB/FSB veteran Igor Girkin-Strelkov, were both Dugin acolytes.

Yet, oddly enough, the events of 2014 also led Novorossiyas prophet to something of a fall from favor. After some overly bloodthirsty comments that urged the wholesale killing of Ukrainians who supported the Nazi junta and of Russians who had joined the fifth column, Dugin became the target of a petition urging his removal as section chair at Moscow State University. (It didnt help that Dugins exhortation to Kill, kill, kill! on Donetsk television was followed by the claim that he was speaking as a professor.) Surprisingly, the university did in fact boot him, having suddenly discovered that his appointment in 2009 had been a technical error due to his guest-lecturer status. Dugin, on his part, took his dismissal as a sign that liberals and Satanists were winning and that the lunar Putin had prevailed. In subsequent months, he was harshly critical of Putin for scaling down the war in Ukraine and abandoning the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk.

Now, after nearly eight years of lying low, Dugin should be the man of the hour. There seems to be very little daylight left between Putinism and Duginism, and one might say that Putin has indeed become 100 percent Dugin. In his interview in Moskovsky Komsomolets on March 30, Dugin declared, The solar Putin has won.

And yet Dugin himself does not sound like a winner. Moskovsky Komsomolets may toe the government line on the special operation in Ukraine, but he still had to fend off uncomfortable questions about what to tell mothers who have lost their children in war zones. (His reply: Well explain it all once we have liberated Ukraine.) In the same interview, Dugin describes the special operation as an apocalyptic battle of good against evil, but also ruefully admits that the Russian people are not yet fully involved in this battle. While he suggests that a call from Putin would be enough to mobilize the entire nation, popular enthusiasm for the war is distinctly lacking so far.

In his latest piece for the Izborsk Club website, Dugin sounds a little dispirited. He worries that Russias leadership thinks it can declare victory after keeping Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson, or maybe after taking all of Novorossiya while leaving the rest of Ukraine in the power of Nazis and globalists. Dugin insists that, at this point, Russia can no longer settle for anything other than total control of all Ukraine, because Christ needs it and because to leave would mean the death, torture, and genocide of millions of Orthodox believers. Invoking his familiar eschatological themes, he asserts that we have become not merely spectators but participants in the Apocalypse.

Somehow, it sounds less like a passionate call to action than the words of a man who is watching his fantasies play out and go terribly wrongand is desperately trying to stay relevant.

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The Bizarre Russian Prophet Rumored to Have Putins Ear - The Bulwark

Trump blasts Putin’s use of the ‘N-word’ on Piers Morgan’s new show – New York Post

Former President Donald Trump lashed out against Russian President Vladimir Putin for repeatedly using the nuclear word, claiming that if he were still president he would try and stop the strongman from ever saying it again.

Putin uses the N-word. I call it the N-word. He uses the N-word, the nuclear word all the time. Thats a no-no, youre not supposed to do that, Trump railed during an interview on Piers Morgan Uncensored that aired Monday.

He uses it on a daily basis. And everybodys so afraid, so afraid, so afraid. And as theyre afraid he uses it more and more. Thats why hes doing the kind of things hes doing right now.

Asked by Morgan what he would tell Putin if he was still commander in chief, Trump replied: I would say, we have far more than you do. Far, far more powerful than you. And you cant use that word ever again. You cannot use the nuclear word ever again. And if you do, were gonna have problems.

Trump also said he warned Putin in very strong language not to invade Ukraine and threatened a US response if Russia did.

I told him what our response was going to be. And his response was Really?. I said, Really,' Trump recalled.

Asked by Morgan whether Trump suggested the US could turn to nuclear capability against the Kremlin, Trump clammed up.

I dont want to talk about it, he responded.

Later in the interview, Trump who has previously said hed gotten along with Putin when he was in the White House agreed with Morgans assertion that the Russian president is now an evil, genocidal monster following the deadly invasion of Ukraine.

I do, well sure, who wouldnt? Trump said when asked if he agreed.

Whats happening is horrible. When you see rockets going into apartment buildings, and there are plenty of people in those buildings, you know, they think theyre, like the people moved out, they didnt move, they wanted to stay because they think theyre safe in their apartments.

The 45th president served as the first guest on Morgans new show. Teased clips showed both men butting heads and at one point,Trump storming out as Morgan pressed him on his claims that the 2020 election was rigged.

During the sit-down, Trump blamed Russias brutal invasion of Ukraine on the rigged election, suggesting that if he were president now, the war wouldnt be happening.Isnt it a shame all those people are dead all because of a rigged election? he said.

Morgans new show, Piers Morgan Uncensored, launches Monday. The program will air every weeknight on networks across the globe, including Fox Nation, Talk TV in the United Kingdom, and on Sky News Australia in that country.

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Trump blasts Putin's use of the 'N-word' on Piers Morgan's new show - New York Post