Lockdowns or vaccines? Japan, New Zealand and Australia try diverging paths – CHEK

WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) Cheryl Simpson was supposed to be celebrating her 60th birthday over lunch with friends but instead found herself confined to her Auckland home.

The discovery of a single local COVID-19 case in New Zealand was enough for the government to put the entire country into strict lockdown this past week. While others might see that as draconian, New Zealanders generally support such measures because they worked so well in the past.

Im happy to go into lockdown, even though I dont like it, said Simpson, owner of a day care center for dogs that is now closed because of the precautions. She said she wants the country to crush the latest outbreak: Id like to knock the bloody thing on the head.

Elsewhere around the Pacific, though, Japan is resisting such measures in the face of a record-breaking surge, instead emphasizing its accelerating vaccine program. And Australia has fallen somewhere in the middle.

All three countries got through the first year of the pandemic in relatively good shape but are now taking diverging paths in dealing with outbreaks of the delta variant, the highly contagious form that has contributed to a growing sense that the coronavirus cannot be stamped out, just managed.

Professor Michael Baker, an epidemiologist at New Zealands University of Otago, said countries around the world are struggling to adapt to the latest threat: With the delta variant, the old rules just dont work.

The differing emphasis on lockdowns versus vaccines and how effective such strategies prove to be in beating back the delta variant could have far-reaching consequences for the three countries economies and the health of their citizens.

Japan has never imposed lockdowns against the coronavirus. The public is wary of government overreach after the countrys fascist period before and during World War II, and Japans postwar constitution lays out strict protections for civil liberties.

Before the delta variant, the country managed to keep a lid on coronavirus outbreaks in part because many people in Japan were already used to wearing surgical masks for protection from spring allergies or when they caught colds.

Now, almost everyone on public transportation wears a mask during commuting hours. But late at night, people tend to uncover in restaurants and bars, which has allowed the variant to spread. Hosting the Tokyo Olympic Games didnt help either.

While strict protocols kept infections inside the games to a minimum, experts such as Dr. Shigeru Omi, a key medical adviser to the government, say the Olympics created a festive air that led people in Japan to lower their guard.

New cases in Japan have this month leaped to 25,000 each day, more than triple the highest previous peak. Omi considers that a disaster.

Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga on Friday expanded and extended a state of emergency covering Tokyo and other areas until at least mid-September, though most of the restrictions arent legally enforceable.

Many governors are urging the prime minister to consider much tougher restrictions. But Suga said lockdowns have been flouted around the world, and vaccines are the way to go.

Daily vaccinations in Japan increased tenfold from May to June as thousands of worksites and colleges began offering shots, but a slow start has left the nation playing catch-up. Only about 40% of people are fully vaccinated.

In Australia, a delta outbreak hit Sydney in June, after an unvaccinated limousine driver became infected while transporting a U.S. cargo air crew from the Sydney Airport. State authorities hesitated for 10 days before imposing lockdown measures across Sydney that have now dragged on for two months.

Early in the pandemic, Australias federal government imposed just one nationwide lockdown. Now, amid the delta outbreak, it is pursuing a strategy it calls aggressive suppression including strict controls on Australians leaving the country and foreigners entering but is essentially letting state leaders call the shots.

New infections in Sydney have climbed from just a few each week before the latest outbreak to more than 800 a day.

Its not possible to eliminate it completely. We have to learn to live with it, Gladys Berejiklian, premier of Sydneys New South Wales state, said in what many interpreted as a significant retreat from the determination state leaders have previously shown to crush outbreaks entirely.

That is why we have a dual strategy in New South Wales, Berejiklian said. Get those case numbers down, vaccination rates up. We have to achieve both in order for us to live freely into the future.

The outbreak in Sydney has spilled over into the capital, Canberra, which has also gone into lockdown. Government worker Matina Carbone wore a mask while shopping on Friday.

I dont know that anyones ever going to really beat delta, she said. I think we just have to try and increase our rates of vaccinations and slowly open things up when we think its safe to do so.

But Australia lags far behind even Japan in getting people inoculated, with just 23% of people fully vaccinated.

Last year, soon after the pandemic first hit, neighboring New Zealand imposed a strict, nationwide lockdown and closed its border to non-residents. That wiped out the virus completely. The country of 5 million has been able to vanquish each outbreak since, recording just 26 virus deaths.

It went six months without a single locally spread case, allowing people to go about their daily lives much as they had before the pandemic.

But this month, the Sydney outbreak spread to New Zealand, carried by a returning traveler.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern promptly imposed the strictest form of lockdown.

By Sunday, the number of locally spread cases in New Zealand had grown to 72, and the virus had reached the capital, Wellington. Officials raced to track 10,000 more people who might have been exposed.

Ardern has been steadfast.

We have been here before. We know the elimination strategy works. Cases rise, and then they fall, until we have none, she said. Its tried and true. We just need to stick it out.

Baker, the epidemiologist, said he believes it is still possible for New Zealand to wipe out the virus again by pursuing the burning ember approach of taking drastic measures to stamp out the first sign of an outbreak.

That remains to be seen.

New Zealand doesnt have much of a Plan B. A recent report by expert advisers to the government noted the nation has comparatively few intensive care hospital beds and said an outbreak could quickly overwhelm the health system.

And New Zealand has been the slowest developed nation to put shots in arms, with just 20% of people fully vaccinated.

Nick Perry, Mari Yamaguchi And Rod Mcguirk/The Associated Press

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Lockdowns or vaccines? Japan, New Zealand and Australia try diverging paths - CHEK

Opinion: Stop putting a spin on New Zealand’s vaccination numbers, we are woefully behind – Newshub

OPINION: Last Christmas I sent a picture to my family in the UK of my children and me in a pool enjoying a summer of freedom that was the envy of the world.

Two days later, my brother, his wife and son in England all had COVID-19.

My parents, who are in their 70s, began what turned out to be a six-month lockdown as England battled with its latest outbreak.

I regretted being so glib about how we were spending the festive season.

Friends of mine in England started to message me about moving over here, such was the positive publicity around the success of New Zealand's elimination of the virus.

Those friends endured a miserable winter in the northern hemisphere, locked down for many months.

Today the tables are somewhat turned, as we are in our second level 4 lockdown, the UK is emerging from its COVID winter of discontent largely vaccinated and seemingly in a new phase of dealing with the virus.

My parents are so confident they have booked a cruise, albeit around the British Isles but it is something a few months ago they were wondering if they would ever do again.

As long as they give a negative COVID test and are both fully vaccinated they can board the ship.

And that is the key, they have both been fully vaccinated for a few months now. All of my family, including my teenage nieces and nephews have received both doses of the vaccination.

Earlier this year, I was told I would be getting my first dose of the vaccine in April. My age and an underlying health condition meant I would be among the first in the queue.

May came and went and no dose.

The information then changed and I was then told I could book in July, not be jabbed but book. So when I got another email saying I was eligible I tried to book online, except the website crashed so I called instead.

I was given a date of September 12. Five months after I was originally told I could get the jab.

I know there were issues securing doses of the vaccine, but when the Prime Minister begins a press conference by saying "I have good news," and then telling us the record number of people who were vaccinated on Friday is something to cheer, it's not good news, it's just catching up.

Putting the country back into lockdown was the right move from Ardern, there was little option once the Delta variant was discovered in the community.

Her management of the crisis has been generally excellent, but stop spinning the vaccination programme.

It has so far not been a success. We are not at the bottom of the list of countries that have vaccinated their populations, but we are a long way from the top.

It doesn't matter how many people have booked for their vaccine, a booking won't protect you. What is important is how many people have been vaccinated twice.

I am at risk from COVID-19, males in my age group have some of the worst survival rates. I would really like the vaccine but won't be fully vaccinated until October.

Meanwhile the Delta variant is in the community and many of us who are at risk shouldn't be.

I would hardly call that good news.

Mark Longley is the managing editor of Newshub Digital

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Opinion: Stop putting a spin on New Zealand's vaccination numbers, we are woefully behind - Newshub

Tiny New Zealand airport that tells Mori love story in running for global design award – The Guardian

A tiny regional airport in New Zealand that weaves a Mori story of love and longing into its architecture is in the running for a prestigious design award, up against international heavyweights including New Yorks LaGuardia.

Unescos Prix Versailles recognises architecture that fosters a better interaction between economy and culture, and includes a range of categories from airports to shopping malls. The finalists for the airport category include the New York LaGuardia upgrade, Berlins Brandenburg airport and international airports in Athens, Kazakhstan and the Philippines.

The sixth airport finalist is Te Hono meaning to connect and is found in New Plymouth, a town with a population of 85,000, on the western shoulder of the North Island.

After six design options were floated, Rangi Kipa a member of the local Puketapu hap (subtribe) and lead figure on cultural design, settled upon a story. The Ascension from the Earth, Descending from the Sky, tells the story of Tamarau, a celestial being, who was so captivated by the earthly beauty of Rongo-ue-roa, a terrestrial being, that he came down to meet her.

This story aligns closely with the creation narrative of Te tiawa iwi [tribe], said Rangi.

The terminals silver and blue roof cascades in large stepped planes, like the feathers of a large wing, or, Tamarau coming to meet Rongo-ue-roa. Their symbolic and literal joining is represented along the public concourse by a brightly coloured tukutuku panel traditionally, a woven wall panel that depicts an iwis stories.

The spine of the building is oriented to represent the journey from the mountain to the river the main ancestral walking track in this area, and while visitors may notice these aspects of the architecture first, there are many subtle stories told through the details.

Manaakitanga the Mori concept of hospitality also influences the design.

Campbell Craig, the projects architect and associate for design at firm Beca, said the project attempted to challenge western architectural practices that do not bear any relationship to Mori design.

It was important for Puketapu to welcome and take care of guests in a place that is in many ways the gateway to the region, said Craig. The faceted curved forms of the building at the entrance and airside embrace travellers, to shelter them from the elements.

In 1960, the land the airport sits on was confiscated from Mori, under the Public Works Act to build an aerodrome. This was a major source of grievance for the hap, who had urup [burial grounds] on the site.

Honouring the iwis story is meant to be the first step in righting this wrong.

Kipa said: For the most part, we have been invisible in our own landscape for 160 years, so its amazing to have the chance to influence, and give life to, some of the things that make us who we are.

For Craig, the most heartening aspect of the project was the intensive collaboration between Mori, the airport and the architects, which enabled a sense of collective ownership over it.

The experience at Te Hono provided a blueprint for working with tngata whenua [people of the land], he said, adding that it would be an approach embedded into all of their future projects.

The airports chief executive, David Scott, said the co-design process had resulted in a building that was both functional and of cultural significance. It demonstrates what can be achieved when we work together as true partners, he said.

The winners of the Prix Versailles Airports 2021 will be announced at Unesco headquarters in late November.

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Tiny New Zealand airport that tells Mori love story in running for global design award - The Guardian

13yo becomes one of New Zealand’s youngest COVID-19 vaccine recipients at drive-through vaccination centre – Newshub

He wasn't the only teenager at the Auckland site. With people aged 12-15 now eligible for the Pfizer shot, 15-year-old Annabel Patterson also rolled down her window and rolled up her sleeve.

The vaccination centre was set up in two days, and on Sunday it accommodated those who had their jab appointments cancelled during the lockdown.

This includes essential workers such as bus drivers and supermarket employees who will get their chance to get their shot.

"We know it's been a really fluid environment and dynamic over the last couple of days and we just want to apologise to people who've been inconvenienced," Northern Region Health Coordination Centre's Matt Hannant told Newshub.

Staff hope to be doing 2000 jabs a day, with the potential to increase in the future.

"So you come through, get screened, check those symptoms, then you get registered then you go through to the tents to get your jab," Hannant says. "The vaccinator comes around the car - does everyone individually."

Once people get their vaccinations, it's over to an observation area where they sit in their car for 15 minutes.

If everything is okay then they're good to go but if there are any issues they honk their horn, flash their lights and medical staff will be instantly there.

Watch full story above.

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13yo becomes one of New Zealand's youngest COVID-19 vaccine recipients at drive-through vaccination centre - Newshub

Coronavirus: New Zealand needs high uptake of vaccine to mitigate cases, hospitalisations, deaths once borders reopen – study – Newshub

Professor Colin Simpson from Victoria University of Wellington says the modelling of predictions from different vaccination programme strategies to consider the number of cases, hospitalisations, and deaths over two years with open borders could help support New Zealand's vaccination strategy.

"The aims of the study were to predict how many people do you need to immunise for herd immunity, which age groups should be targeted first and in what order and what the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths would look like under a number of different vaccine effectiveness, R0 and population coverage," he says.

The modelling found that reaching the herd immunity threshold based on the infection rate of the Delta variant was almost impossible.

"Based on a 90 percent vaccine effectiveness (VE) against disease and 80 percent VE against infection we would require at least 86.5 percent total population uptake (including children) for R0=4.5 (with high vaccination coverage for 30-49-year-olds) but that would jump to 98.1 percent uptake for R0=6 (the Delta variant)," Simpson says.

ESR chief scientist Dr Brett Cowan says the results show that vaccinating as many New Zealanders as possible will reduce the risk of widespread community outbreaks. As a result, vulnerable populations will have a greater chance of protection from the disease, but other public health and social measures will still be needed as part of a response.

"Vaccination modelling has been proved to help anticipate potential public health outcomes based on different vaccine effectiveness reported in clinical trials and 'real-world' studies and vaccination programme strategies," Simpson says.

"While the study was primarily developed with New Zealand in mind, our experience will also provide valuable insights to the international community to inform future actions."

Andrew Sporle, from the University of Auckland's department of statistics, says it is critical to include strategies to ensure Mori and Pasifika have maximum protection since they're at higher risk for hospitalisation and death from COVID-19.

"Prioritising vaccinations for those most at risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19 infection (including Mori and Pasifika) benefits the whole population as well as protecting those groups," he says.

"We know that opening the border will result in local cases of COVID. Minimising the resulting hospitalisations and deaths requires prioritisation of those groups and communities most at risk, as Australia and Canada have done."

Sporle adds that the risk of a border breach before vaccinations are complete means prioritisation must be a focus so it doesn't become a catch-up strategy.

There have been 148 cases in New Zealand's current outbreak so far, 41 of which were announced on Tuesday.

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Coronavirus: New Zealand needs high uptake of vaccine to mitigate cases, hospitalisations, deaths once borders reopen - study - Newshub

Rugby: Resolution found? All Blacks set to leave New Zealand next week – New Zealand Herald

The All Blacks are set to leave Perth for the third Bledisloe Cup match after previously being held back on player welfare grounds.

After New Zealand Rugby controversially opted out of flying the All Blacks to Perth this week, a solution appears to have been found, with the All Blacks set to leave New Zealand next week. Liam Napier reports.

The All Blacks are likely to board a plane to Perth next week for the third, rescheduled Bledisloe Cup test against the Wallabies on September 4.

The difference between next week and last, when New Zealand Rugby sparked an outcry by pulling pin on the All Blacks travelling for the scheduled August 28 Bledisloe test in Perth, is the Rugby Championship destination is expected to be finalised by Tuesday or Wednesday.

The continued uncertainty surrounding whether Europe, Queensland or South Africa will host the four-nation tournament is the rationale NZ Rugby cited for not sending the All Blacks last Saturday.

Provided health protocols remain the same, allowing the All Blacks to travel to Perth, stay in a controlled bubble and play seven days later, and Rugby Australia can negotiate with AFL to secure Optus Stadium on September 4, the final sold-out Bledisloe is expected to be staged then.

Amid the backdrop of seething anger from Australia at the way NZ Rugby has handled the complex situation, the dead rubber Bledisloe, which doubles as the All Blacks' second Rugby Championship fixture, promises to be a tense occasion.

Like last week, the All Blacks need to leave New Zealand by this Saturday in order to land in Perth a week before the September 4 date.

Much of the context around NZ Rugby's decision to hold the All Blacks back at late notice, and force Rugby Australia to reschedule the third Bledisloe for a second time, has been overshadowed by furious criticism and some dubious claims, particularly those from RA chief executive Andy Marinos about a lack of consultation.

Sanzaar held a chief executive meeting last Thursday where NZ Rugby boss Mark Robinson flagged issues facing the All Blacks' departure, including the challenges assembling a group of 60-odd players and management from all parts of the country with domestic flights significantly reduced while New Zealand is in lockdown.

With no MIQ spots available for the All Blacks until November, once the team leaves New Zealand they cannot return until then. They, therefore, want certainty around the Rugby Championship destination before being away from home for up to 14 weeks.

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Following the Sanzaar meeting the Herald understands Robinson and Marinos spoke two further times on Friday, with the latter well aware of the 2pm deadline to guarantee Queensland's ability to host the Rugby Championship before the All Blacks were willing to fly out.

The prospect of pushing the third Bledisloe back a week to September 4, in order to allow time for the Rugby Championship situation to be resolved, was raised only to be rejected by Marinos.

As the deadline loomed, Marinos asked for three additional hours to secure a letter or approval from the Queensland Government that is still yet to arrive and Robinson made it clear that, given logisical challenges, they would not wait that long.

Having not received assurances from Queensland around the Rugby Championship, NZ Rugby took a hard-line stance to issue its statement that the All Blacks would not be travelling as planned, sparking furious criticism and suggestions from Marinos that he found out via the media.

One other factor widely overlooked is the quarantine situation facing the Springboks and Pumas. Both teams originally planned to satisfy their two-week quarantine in Sydney, where they were permitted to train during that time. As of last Friday, however, that was no longer the case with the Covid-19 situation deteriorating in Sydney.

While Perth remains keen to host the third Bledisloe they, too, aren't comfortable with the potential risks associated with welcoming the Boks and Pumas from South Africa, a Covid-19 hot spot.

Perth therefore changed its stance on staging the Rugby Championship, as had been touted.

With the Queensland State Government yet to provide assurances it is willing to host the tournament, or clarify the quarantine situation for the Boks and Pumas, much uncertainty surrounds how and where those teams will enter Australia.

NZ Rugby's move left ticket holders in Perth disillusioned, and Wallabies coach Dave Rennie "bloody angry" as, among other things, his team is now left in limbo.

The decision to delay travelling is not unprecedented, however. Just last year the Springboks pulled out of playing the Rugby Championship in Australia at the 11th hour citing player welfare. That decision had major ramifications in reducing the tournament to the Tri Nations.

Sanzaar is set to meet on Monday to determine where the Rugby Championship will be held, with Queensland and Europe essentially in a head-to-head battle. South Africa's inability to host crowds would significantly reduce revenue.

Europe is enticing for all four nations from a financial point of view and if the third Bledisloe can't be staged in Perth on September 4, there is the prospect of instead playing it at Wembley on October 9.

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Where to Survive the End of the World? Head to New Zealand – The Daily Beast

New Zealand is already envied for its secluded nature and, more recently, its early management of COVID-19. It may also be the best place to survive the end of the world as we know it, according to a new study. Researchers found the Kiwi home to be the best place to survive a global collapse of society, citing its reasonable climate, ability to control its borders, and grow food. We werent surprised New Zealand was on our list, Prof. Aled Jones at the Global Sustainability Institute, which conducted the study, told The Guardian. The study, published in the journal Sustainability, found human civilization to be on the brink of collapse, citing its hyper-focus on interconnectivity and its impact on the environment. This left it unprepared to handle potential shocks, including an unprecedented financial crisis or a pandemic much deadlier than COVID-19. With hindsight, its quite obvious that large islands with complex societies on them already [make up the list], Jones said.

Other countries to make up the list include the United Kingdom, Iceland, Tasmania, and Ireland.

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Where to Survive the End of the World? Head to New Zealand - The Daily Beast

Winston Reid’s New Zealand edged out by Honduras in Olympics – West Ham United F.C.

Winston Reid's New Zealand suffered a late 3-2 defeat to Honduras in their second group stage game at the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games on Sunday.

The Oly Whites captain and West Ham United defender was forced out of the action early in the first half due to injury, and had to watch on as his teamlooked on course to take a major step towards the quarter-finals when they twice led thanks to goals from Liberato Cacace and Burnley's Chris Wood, only to be thwarted by Honduras.

Goals in the final twelve minutes byJuan Carlos Obregn Jr and Rigoberto Rivas were enough to overcome the deficit and hand their side a dramatic 3-2 victory.

The defeat leaves New Zealand with three points from their opening two Group B games, but they know progression is still in their own hands.

Should they defeat Romania in their final match, in Sapporo on Wednesday, they will make the tournament's last eight for the first time at an Olympics.

Meanwhile, Reid was sent for a scan on the knee problemand will now face await to see if he will be able to return to help his team's bid for Olympics glory.

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Winston Reid's New Zealand edged out by Honduras in Olympics - West Ham United F.C.

New Zealand is not the world’s post-Covid future – Stuff.co.nz

OPINION: About a year ago, North American friends started looking to New Zealand as an early glimpse of their own potential post-Covid world.

They were still stuck in lockdowns; we had emerged from ours. They wanted to know what their future might look like. Would working from home prove sticky? Or would everyone go back to their offices?

The answers mattered for thinking about whether firms might relocate to places where rents were lower, with obvious consequences for real estate prices.

The geographic time-vortex has since changed direction.

READ MORE:* Mixed fortunes for Kiwis seeking to get back from Australia * Covid 19: Vulnerable Kiwis still waiting as next vaccine stage begins * Tourism businesses can no longer afford to ignore Kiwis

New Zealand is not the worlds post-Covid future. Covid now seems globally endemic, with no prospect of the rest of the world eliminating it as much as we desperately hope they would.

North America instead provides visions of what a post-vaccination world may look like. If our luck holds, New Zealand will join the post-vaccination world without ever having to endure any real Covid outbreak like Australias. If our luck does not hold, New Zealand will get there the harder way.

Canadas vaccination rates are now among the best in the world. As of last week, 52 per cent of Canadas population was fully vaccinated and a further 18 per cent had had their first shot.

Cameron Burnell/Stuff

Dr Eric Crampton is chief economist with The New Zealand Initiative.

Those who are not vaccinated still impose risk. Vaccines sharply reduce the likelihood of serious illness with Covid, but some risk remains. Canadians support measures helping them to stay safe, and to avoid passing the virus on to others who are vulnerable, by staying clear of those who are unvaccinated.

Majorities of Canadians surveyed in late May, when only 54 per cent of Canadians had had at least a first vaccination dose, and again in July, supported proof-of-vaccination requirements to board commercial airline flights; to travel internationally; to attend public events or large gatherings; to visit public places like restaurants, movie theatres and churches; and, to attend ones own place of work.

Quebec will be requiring proof of vaccination for entry into high-risk places like gyms, concerts, and festivals in any fourth wave. And, last week, the University of British Columbias alumni association urged the university to require vaccination for students in the residence halls a measure supported by 82 per cent of students.

Across the US border, vaccination rates have plateaued at about 56 per cent and the costs of low vaccination rates are more obvious.

Americas National Football League last week set a new policy. If a vaccinated player returns a positive test, without symptoms, he can return to play after two negative tests a day apart; unvaccinated players must quarantine for 10 days.

If a game is cancelled due to a Covid outbreak among unvaccinated players, the team with unvaccinated players does not just forfeit the game. It also bears responsibility for any resulting financial losses.

The leagues policy does not mandate vaccination. It simply ensures that the costs of not being vaccinated fall where they should.

Some American universities are requiring that their students be vaccinated. Indiana Universitys mandate survived a court challenge last week.

Looking ahead to New Zealands post-vaccination future, we might expect similar preferences here if New Zealand has taken the hard road and endured the kind of real outbreak that makes the risk of the unvaccinated more tangible.

Some businesses and employers might cater to the more risk-averse who, like me, would strongly prefer shopping, eating, commuting and working in places where there are no unvaccinated people around. Other venues could cater to the less risk-averse, like restaurants that were once allowed to cater to smokers.

Lukas/Unsplash

Might our vaccine passport be ready in time for our post-vaccination future?

Canadas vaccine passport enabling reliable checking of vaccination status might only be ready by December. Might ours be ready in time for our post-vaccination future?

On the other side, some measures that make sense in a pre-vaccination world prove sticky afterwards.

Last week, economist Josh Gans excellent newsletter on Covid and economics highlighted University of Toronto rules restricting people against sharing offices, and mandating mask wearing indoors, even for vaccinated faculty alone in their offices.

Borders can also prove sticky.

Canada aimed to reopen the border when Canadian vaccination rates hit 75 per cent. The re-opening of the Canadian land border to vaccinated and tested travellers from the United States is scheduled for August 9, but Americas land border is remaining closed to Canadians despite Canadas much higher vaccination rates.

If New Zealand luckily avoids outbreaks before we reach the post-vaccination world, our border may prove stickier than it needs to be.

The Government has signalled that border policy will change in the post-vaccination world. But, quietly around the edges, we hear signals that nobody should really be able to expect to travel for another year.

New Zealand needs to be able to join the rest of the post-vaccination world in 2022. If the Government believes that world still to be too risky, then improving border quarantine now, so it will be able to accommodate a lot more vaccinated travellers for much shorter stays, will be important.

Dr Eric Crampton is chief economist with The New Zealand Initiative. The NZ Initiative is a research group funded by a range of corporates, universities and other organisations. You can view the full list of its supporters here.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this column said that Quebec already required proof of vaccination. (Updated 26/7, 9.49am)

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New Zealand is not the world's post-Covid future - Stuff.co.nz

Tokyo Olympics 2020: Live updates – New Zealand athletes and events in action, how to watch in NZ, live streaming – New Zealand Herald

Sport

29 Jul, 2021 11:00 AM4 minutes to read

Two more medals for New Zealand as NZ Herald Focus Sport's Cheree Kinnear wraps day six, and rowing legend Eric Murray reviews all the action on the water. Video / NZ Herald / Sky Sport

All of today's action from the Tokyo Olympics.

After two close calls yesterday, New Zealand have their best chance yet to claim their first gold medal of the Tokyo Olympic Games.

Here's all you need to know about today's action (Thursday, 29 July).

Kerri Gowler and Grace Prendergast set a world record time in their semifinal to progress to the final of the women's pair, and, as you'd expect after a performance like that, the world champion crew have been inserted a $1.45 favourite to win gold early this afternoon.

Their closest rivals are deemed to be the Canadian crew, followed by Great Britain and Greece, who broke the world record previously held by Gowler and Prendergast in the first semifinal, only for the Kiwi pair to amusingly/cruelly immediately take it right back from them in the following semifinal.

While Gowler and Prendergast are gold medal favourites, another Kiwi rower in the medal mix is Emma Twigg, who competes in her semifinal this afternoon, looking to progress to a third consecutive Olympic final.

The biggest of New Zealand's gold medal favourites are also in action today, but the Black Ferns Sevens are only beginning their campaign, while fellow Rio silver medallist Luuka Jones has a chance at a medal in the C1 canoe slalom event, but after qualifying 11th for the semifinals it would be a surprise for her to medal in her less-favoured event.

Also participating in his less-favoured event is Lewis Clareburt, who has a chance to qualify for the 200m Individual Medley final after another storming personal best in his heat last night saw him qualify third-fastest for the semifinals. However, a tough turnaround will see him again have to battle with the "morning blues", and it would be a harsh ask to expect a better time than what he produced last night.

Finally, golfer Ryan Fox tees off in his first round this morning, and in a sport with plenty of variance, and a field not containing as many stars as some of the big events he usually plays in, he can't be ruled out as a medal prospect.

Check the "who's competing" interactive above to see the full list of Kiwis in action, and when they begin their events.

28 Jul, 2021 10:00 PMQuick Read

29 Jul, 2021 03:30 AMQuick Read

29 Jul, 2021 05:16 AMQuick Read

29 Jul, 2021 04:34 PMQuick Read

Archery (Individual Round of 32 and 16 matches)Artistic Gymnastics (Women's all-round final)Badminton (Knockouts)Baseball (Pool Play)Basketball (Pool Play)Beach Volleyball (Pool Play)Boxing (Round of 16)Canoe Slalom (Women's canoe final)Cycling BMX racing (Quarter-finals)Fencing (Women's Foil Team Matches)Golf (Men's Round 1)Handball (Women's Pool Play)Hockey (Pool Play)Judo (Women's 78kg and Men's 100kg medal matches)Rowing (Four finals)Rugby Sevens (Women's Pool Play)Sailing (Classification Races)Shooting (Trap finals)Swimming (Five finals)Table Tennis (Women's singles medal matches, men's semifinals)Tennis (Quarter-finals and semifinals)Volleyball (Women's Pool play)Water Polo (Men's Pool play)

The Herald will have live updates running from 10am, while you can catch all the action on Sky Sport. Every event on Sky can also be watched via streaming on Sky Sport Now or Sky Go.

Archery (Women's individual medal matches)Athletics (Heaps)Badminton (Knockouts)Baseball (Pool Play)Basketball (Women's Pool Play)Beach Volleyball (Pool Play)Boxing (Round of 16, quarter-finals)Canoe Slalom (Men's kayak final)Cycling BMX racing (Finals)Diving (Women's 3m Springboard Preliminary)Equestrian (Eventing Dressage)Fencing (Men's Epee Team finals)Football (Women's quarter-finals)Golf (Men's Round 2)Handball (Men's Pool Play)Hockey (Pool Play)Judo (Women's 78kg+ and Men's 100kg+ medal matches)Rowing (Four finals)Rugby Sevens (Women's Pool Play and quarter-finals)Sailing (Classification Races)Shooting (25m Women's Pistol Final)Swimming (Four finals)Table Tennis (Men's singles medal matches)Tennis (TBC)Trampoline Gymnastics (Women's final)Volleyball (Men's Pool play)Water Polo (Women's Pool play)

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Tokyo Olympics 2020: Live updates - New Zealand athletes and events in action, how to watch in NZ, live streaming - New Zealand Herald

Covid-19: The cost of keeping New Zealand safe – Stuff.co.nz

Bevan Hurley/Stuff

While the border remains shut, the tourism sector struggles to remain solvent and fill core roles to provide a premium service to New Zealand and, when the time is right, the world. (File photo)

OPINION: While we deal with the challenges of Covid-19, there is no doubting the political wisdom of a closed border to help manage the threat of the virus getting into and running rampant in New Zealand.

The management of Covid propelled the Government to become the first post-MMP majority Government, and it must feel comforted that a recent UMR poll found around 66 per cent of New Zealanders remain supportive of this policy and will probably continue to feel that way until a much greater proportion of the population is vaccinated.

We have low unemployment, most people are in some way connected to work, and the economy has rebounded remarkably strongly after a couple of stuttering quarters.

Right now New Zealand, along with the rest of the world, is trying to figure out how to get the lights back on safely after lockdowns, and how to get production under way to meet continued strong demand for our goods and services.

READ MORE:* Record number of job opportunities as employers struggle to find qualified staff* What's next for interest rates?* New Zealanders rate economy as among world's strongest* There is still plenty of Covid pain to come

So far this is good news.

But the pain of living with a closed border persists. While the border remains shut, the tourism sector struggles to remain solvent and fill core roles to provide a premium service to New Zealand and, when the time is right, the world.

SUPPLIED

BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope.

While tourists arent flying here, taxpayers are having to subsidise the exports flown out of the country. And until the planes are full of passengers again, that will remain the case.

The exports that travel on those planes have been reduced since Covid hit exports overall are down some 25 per cent but that isnt related to demand for the products, its because we simply dont have people to pick the fruit, or tourists to populate the planes that carry the fruit, or workers that used to holiday here, or students that used to study and work here.

Despite the best efforts of the industries concerned doing all they can to find, train and pay locals, there are still critical skills shortages in almost all parts of the economy. Employers in primary industries in regional New Zealand are now thinking about what the next season might look like. Similarly, the designers, architects, engineers and constructors of new infrastructure are thinking twice about whether to compete for contracts when they dont know if there will be the skills available to complete projects.

The theme overwhelmingly coming through key business surveys is that businesses are having to constrain their output because of lack of staff to do the work.

The implications of continued labour shortages on future inflation could be substantial, with increased costs passed on to households as higher prices for everyday goods and services. There will be increased pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates, and with high levels of household debt, those higher interest rates will eat away at households disposable income.

Probably the biggest pain right now is at the personal level. We have a workforce that is working at full capacity, businesses report high level of stress among owners, staff, suppliers and customers, and the mental health of the workforce operating at this pace is at risk.

Helpfully, there are signs they are listening and have already taken some steps. Many temporary visa holders have had their visas extended for two years. These people work in critical and essential industries such as our aged care sector, and in our productive sectors, and it is good that they now have some certainty over their future and the value New Zealand places on their skills.

The Government also pushed back the timing of the overly bureaucratic employer-assisted visa programme as they work with industries to more thoroughly assess the balance between the skills that are available and what will be needed to ensure our people dont burn out.

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Minister of Immigration Kris Faafoi. The government recently announced they had extended many visas for temporary visa holders. (File photo)

Here are seven suggestions that could shift the dial in the short term while borders are shut, and in the medium term when hopefully the borders are open:

Allow family reunifications and pathways to residency, acknowledging that for those already here, this will not significantly increase housing and infrastructure pressures.

Look at immigration in terms of workforce priorities and integrate these with education and welfare needs. Improve the capacity of the health and education workforce to cope.

Improve the capacity of the essential services workforce allow more critical workers to come here.

Keep as many businesses and workers operating as possible reduce the number of unhelpful regulations and provide government services more efficiently.

Help growth industries lead the recovery primary industries, construction, infrastructure and technology companies.

Open up investor category visas for border exemptions to allow more foreign investment into the country, to build the infrastructure thats so badly needed.

Make a plan for business travel to be able to safely resume, as a priority export and other businesses need this urgently.

Our prospects for continued health, prosperity, and the sustainability of our workforce depend a great deal on the good work the Government has done in keeping us Covid-free, but these prospects also require the Government to listen to business to help reduce the ongoing pain of our closed border and ensure New Zealand can remain internationally competitive.

Kirk Hope is Chief Executive at BusinessNZ.

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Covid-19: The cost of keeping New Zealand safe - Stuff.co.nz

This is New Zealand’s best pie – and for the first time in awards history, a woman baked it – Stuff.co.nz

A female baker has taken out the top prize in the Bakels New Zealand Supreme Pie Awards for the first time in their quarter century history.

Sopheap Long, of Euro Patisserie in Torbay on Aucklands North Shore, won the coveted Supreme Award for her steak and cheese at a ceremony held in Auckland on Tuesday night.

The Supreme Pie is the best of the best, named by the competitions judges to be the top entry among the 11 category winners.

Supplied

Sopheap Long's Supreme Award-winning steak and cheese pie.

In all, Longs pie beat out nearly 5000 entries from 465 bakeries around the country.

READ MORE:* Take the ultimate Kiwi pie roadie* New Zealand's best mince and cheese takes baker to historic Pie Awards win* Why are South Island bakeries under represented at the NZ pie awards?

Bakels managing director Brent Kersel said Longs steak and cheese had everything going for it.

The steak was chunky but so tender it just melted in your mouth, he explained. It was surrounded by rich, dark gravy and topped with a semi-soft tangy cheese; just delicious. The golden flaky pastry had perfect layering and the base was lightly golden brown with a hand hold-able firmness. We just couldnt fault it.

Supplied

Sopheap Long, left, winning Best Apprentice Pie Maker in 2019; shes now baked the countrys best pie.

Steak and cheese is, along with mince and cheese, one of the most hotly contested categories in the annual awards, receiving the highest number of entries.

In winning the steak and cheese award, Long edged out seven-time supreme winner Patrick Lam, of Goldstar Patricks Pies in Tauranga, who placed second.

Long, who was Apprentice Pie Maker of the Year in 2019, also took out bronze in the bacon and egg category, won by another female baker, Shuly Ngann of Le Royal Bakery in Grafton, Auckland, and was highly commended for her mince and cheese, a category won by Ny Chan of Ronnies Cafe and Bakery in Matamata.

Chris McKeen/Stuff

Judges, including celebrity guest Peter Gordon, second from right, sampled close to 5000 pies.

Kersel said the standard of entries this year was very high across the board, after Covid-19 meant the competition did not go ahead this year.

On more than one occasion we had to go back and take another look at the top finalists in a few of the categories because the results were either a tie or half a point difference... Maybe during periods of lockdown in 2020 our bakers spent time polishing their skills.

Longs big win will almost certainly mean a run on her bakery, as has been experienced by previous winners, including Lam.

Pie fans from everywhere will be heading for [Longs] bakery to try her pies and Im sure they wont be disappointed, said Kersel.

BAKELS SUPREME PIE AWARDS 2021 WINNERS

MINCE & GRAVY

Gold Award: Jason Hay, Richoux Bakery, 119 Main Highway, Ellerslie

Silver Award: Chenth Bun, Euro Bake & Espresso Ltd, 45 Main Road, Kumeu

Bronze Award: Sok Heang Nguon, Taste Cafe & Bakery, 1a Crayford Street West, Avondale

Highly Commended: Vong Hean, Mairangi Bay Bakery, 366 Beach Road, Mairangi Bay

POTATO TOPPED

Gold Award: Michael Gray, Nada Bakery, Suite 4, 72 Main Road, Tawa

Silver Award: Patrick Lam, Goldstar Patricks Pies, Shop 14, 2 Taurikura, Tauriko

Bronze Award: Bunnarith Sao, Dairy Flat Bakery Ltd, 1443 Dairy Flat Highway, Dairy Flat

Highly Commended: Buntha Meng, Wild Grain Bakery, 16 Wainui Road, Silverdale

STEAK & CHEESE

Gold Award: Sopheap Long, Euro Patisserie Torbay, 1028 Beach Road, Torbay

Silver Award: Patrick Lam, Goldstar Patricks Pies, Shop 14, 2 Taurikura, Tauriko

Bronze Award: Geemun Chao, Baker Bobs Bakery Cafe, 135 Chadwick Road, Greerton

Highly Commended: Jason Hay, Richoux Bakery, 119 Main Highway, Ellerslie

CHICKEN AND VEGETABLE

Gold Award: Jason Danielson, Kai Pai Bakery, 17 Frederick Street, Wanaka

Silver Award: Nap Ly, Target Bakehouse & Cafe, 241 Manukau Road, Pukekohe

Bronze Award: Savanchamnan Ly, PieFee, 349 Karangahape Road

Highly Commended: Jacksea Tang, Penny Lane Bake Shop, 248 Onehunga Mall, Onehunga

CAFE BOUTIQUE

Gold Award: Lentil, potato, onion, carrot & celery; Brad Dalton, Ginger Dynamite go go food & coffee, 488 Main Road Riwaka, Riwaka

Silver Award: Venison & bacon; Jason Heaven, Caf Ahuriri, 16 Mahia Street, Ahuriri

Bronze Award: Beef, bourbon, bacon, aged cheddar cheese & garden herbs; Nicole Peake, The Whistling Frog, 9 Rewcastle Road, RD 2, Owaka

Highly Commended: Chicken breast with creamy mushrooms; Chi Meng Lo, Bay Coffee Hub, 279 Emerson Street, Napier South

GOURMET MEAT

Gold Award: Slow cooked Wagyu beef curry; Jason Hay, Richoux Bakery, 119 Main Highway, Ellerslie

Silver Award: Steak, mushroom & cheese; Geemun Chao, Baker Bobs Bakery Cafe, 135 Chadwick Road, Greerton

Bronze Award: Chicken, leek, mushroom & bacon; Jason Danielson, Kai Pai Bakery, 17 Frederick Street, Wanaka

Highly Commended: Roast pork, potato, mixed veg, gravy & apple sauce; Sopheap Try, Chelsea Bakery & Roast, 113 Randwick Road, Moera

STEAK & GRAVY

Gold Award: Kaing Sok, My Bakery Cafe Kelston, Suite 6, 4055 Great North Road, Glen Eden

Silver Award: Jason Danielson, Kai Pai Bakery, 17 Frederick Street, Wanaka

Bronze Award: Shuly Ngann, Le Royal Bakery, 21 Park Road, Grafton

Highly Commended: Patrick Lam, Goldstar Patricks Pies, Shop 14, 2 Taurikura, Tauriko

BACON & EGG

Gold Award: Shuly Ngann, Le Royal Bakery, 21 Park Road, Grafton

Silver Award: Chenth Bun, Euro Bake & Espresso Ltd, 45 Main Road, Kumeu

Bronze Award: Sopheap Long, Euro Patisserie Torbay, 1028 Beach Road, Torbay

Highly Commended: Ratanak Nov, Corner Bakery, 180A Hillsborough Road, Hillsborough

MINCE & CHEESE

Gold Award: Ny Chan, Ronnies Caf & Bakery, 74 Broadway, Matamata

Silver Award: Vong Hean, Mairangi Bay Bakery, 366 Beach Road, Mairangi Bay

Bronze Award: Sok Heang Nguon, Taste Caf & Bakery, 1A Crayford Street West, Avondale

Highly Commended: Sopheap Long, Euro Patisserie Torbay, 1028 Beach Road, Torbay

VEGETARIAN

Gold Award: Creamed white sauce, spinach, sweetcorn, pumpkin, mushroom; Vong Hean, Mairangi Bay Bakery, 366 Beach Road, Mairangi Bay

Silver Award: Spinach, pumpkin, kumara, cranberries sauce & camembert; Geemun Chao, Baker Bobs Bakery Cafe, 135 Chadwick Road, Greerton

Bronze Award: Creamy sauce, carrot, kumara, peas, broccoli, onion, sweetcorn & coriander; Ty Lim, Orewa Bakery, 8 Moana Avenue, Orewa

Highly Commended: Kumara, pumpkin, potato, mixed vegetables; Sok Heang Nguon, Taste Caf & Bakery, 1A Crayford Street West, Avondale

COMMERCIAL WHOLESALE

Gold Award: Terry McMahon, Couplands Bakeries, 140 Carmen Road, Hornby

Silver Award: Tim Milina, Oxford Pies, 142 Maui Street, Pukete

Bronze Award: Martyn Mayston, Bake Shack Bakery, 59 Hewletts Road, Mt Maunganui

Highly Commended: Adelle Neilson, GWF, 78 Kerrs Road, Wiri

SUPREME

Gold Award: Steak & Cheese; Sopheap Long, Euro Patisserie Torbay, 1028 Beach Road, Torbay

The rest is here:

This is New Zealand's best pie - and for the first time in awards history, a woman baked it - Stuff.co.nz

The best New Zealand airport to fly into, according to Air New Zealand’s chief pilot – Stuff.co.nz

Queenstown is the most spectacular place in New Zealand to fly into, a Boeing 787 takes off at between 260km and 300km an hour, and you need to return to your assigned seat before landing so the planes centre of gravity isnt out of whack.

So said Air New Zealand chief pilot, Captain David Morgan, in a question and answer session with members of the public on the airlines Facebook page this week.

SUPPLIED

Morgan said flying into Queenstown Airport on a nice day is spectacular.

Asked which route is his favourite, Morgan said that was a tough one as hes flown the airlines entire network since he started with it in 1985.

Still, he conceded: The most spectacular flight Id say is flying into Queenstown on a beautiful day.

READ MORE:* Miss or Ms? Airline's serious stuff-up on passengers' weight * What causes in-flight turbulence and should passengers be worried?* Upgrades, doors and toilets: The nine biggest myths about air travel

Several people asked which New Zealand airport was the most difficult to fly into, but Morgan refused to be drawn, saying all airports can be challenging in bad weather.

However, he acknowledged that some have a unique set of challenges, such as windy Wellington and Queenstown when there are crosswinds.

Air New Zealand flight attendant Nicole Astle chipped in, saying her roughest-ever landing was in Dunedin followed by Queenstown and Wellington respectively.

Ross Giblin/Stuff

Morgan said windy Wellington presents a unique set of challenges for pilots.

To the question of why passengers are distributed to balance smaller planes, Morgan said aircraft are loaded so the pivot point (the central point at which the plane balances or turns) falls within its centre of gravity range.

That pivot point moves during the course of the flight. Because we calculate this before we depart, we ask passengers to return to their original seat prior to landing so that the centre of gravity is where it should be.

Morgan also explained that the window blinds need to be up for landing so cabin crew can see out the window if there is an emergency.

If youre travelling on an Airbus A320, look out for a small back triangle on the sidewall. It marks the spot crew stand to look outside if necessary.

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Morgan said Queenstowns crosswinds can make it tricky to fly into.

Air New Zealand flight attendant Paige Valentine added that open window blinds also enable crew to see if there is fire or smoke outside in the event of an emergency evacuation.

Fire = dont open that emergency exit!

Morgan handled a lot of questions about turbulence, with many asking whether it posed a real danger.

His standard answer was No. The atmosphere is energetic, so its always moving. Its the moving of air layers that cause turbulence. Our aircraft are designed to fly through it and our pilots use our flight simulator to practice flying through turbulence.

A self-described terrible flyer asked whether it was true that pilots decide to cancel flights in bad weather because of the discomfort it would cause passengers rather than the planes capabilities.

Morgan gave his standard turbulence response, but Kiwi pilot Matt Wilcock said it was not.

(W)e cancel for unsuitable weather conditions normally at the destination airport or if any alternate airports are also unsuitable. Passenger comfort isnt a consideration as everyones comfort levels are different.

One person wanted to know how pilots remember which button does what in the cockpit when there are so many, asking whether they ever forget and press a button at random to see what happens.

Morgan said pilots use only about 10 per cent of the buttons on a Boeing 787 in-flight.

Most switches concern aircraft systems, which are used at the start and end of flights, he said.

During the flight, most switches are associated with the flight management computer and the autopilot of the aircraft I fly.

Spirit Airlines pilot Chris Reopelle said its a myth that planes can practically fly themselves on autopilot.

We utilise the autopilot to manage workload when things get busy. Its more a tool to help us manage an incredibly complex and diverse environment.

Morgan said the best seat on a plane is the captains, but passengers after a smoother ride should select a seat somewhere near the centre of gravity, which is typically over the wing.

Asked whether it was strange not being able to see out the windscreen when flying through cloud, Morgan admitted it was at first.

Ricky Wilson/Stuff

Air New Zealand has apologised for the way the situation was handled.

It was quite unusual actually because when you learn to fly, you learn by flying with reference to the ground.

However, he said pilots are trained to be able to fly using their instruments alone. When a plane flies through cloud, their eyes are solely on their instruments.

To the question of why a plane can feel like it is losing power after take off, Morgan said levelling off at low altitude can give the illusion that the aircraft is descending.

I tend to raise this in my pre-departure PA to ease any concerns.

As for whether planes can speed up if a flight is delayed to make up the time, Morgan said they can to a degree.

Matty McLean/Twitter

Cookies will continue to be offered on domestic flights.

However, its the same as a car if you speed up, you burn more fuel more quickly. We very rarely do this.

A couple of people enquired about pilots stamina on long-haul flights, asking whether they flew the whole journey or put the plane on autopilot for some of it.

Morgan explained that there are four pilots on long-haul flights who work in pairs.

We rotate regularly and take breaks, he said.

Many questions went unanswered. Among them: Do you ever get bored on a long-haul flight?, Do you avoid the fish?, and How is it that plane manufacturers can make a plane fly yet they cant make the announcements from the cockpit clear and legible a matter of metres back?

With the post generating more than 520 comments, you cant really blame him though. And, to be fair, he did take the time to answer arguably the most burning question of all: Whether the cookie or the chips are the best in-flight snack.

Morgan declared himself a cookie man, but said hes looking forward to the alternatives being trialled.

Original post:

The best New Zealand airport to fly into, according to Air New Zealand's chief pilot - Stuff.co.nz

Air New Zealand ‘willing and able’ to increase flights from Australia – RNZ

The clock is ticking and New Zealanders have until 11.59pm on 30 July to get on a quarantine-free flight back home from Australia. However, travellers from New South Wales must go through managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ).

Air New Zealand aircraft. Photo: RNZ / Nate McKinnon

The trans-Tasman travel bubble is paused for at least eight weeks as the Delta variant continues to spread.

Air New Zealand chief executive Greg Foran told Morning Report the airline would do everything to help New Zealanders wanting to return this week from Australia.

"Trust us," he said.

"We have seen plenty of people reach out over the weekend. We've got about 7500 people booked to return to New Zealand through to midnight this Friday."

The prime minister this morning said it was not known how many of the 21,000 New Zealanders in Australia would want to come home but there would be space for them on return flights.

There were still about 2000 seats available, and about 4500 people were booked to go back to Australia, Foran said.

"We've put on now four extra flights and had put on some planes that have got some more seats on as well so at this stage things are looking very much in control and ... we're going to do everything we can to ensure that friends and whnau get back home."

He said the airline could increase the number of flights if need be.

"At this stage, the people who want to get back have already taken some action. I'm not saying it won't continue to be a little bit busy this week.

"But we're ready, willing and able to get people home at later notice if we need to."

Foran said the team was now working towards a drop in the number of flights over the next eight weeks when the travel bubble is suspended.

"Demand is going to fall away pretty quickly across the Tasman both ways. So we'll make the adjustments there and ... we're putting on some extra activity domestically.

"Domestic is continuing to perform well, we're now actually running above pre-Covid levels, we're running at about 104 percent."

He said about 250,000 seats had gone on sale today for under $100 around the country.

And Rarotonga flights were also running about four times than usual.

He could not say how the travel pause would affect finances but was sure "the length of this will have a bearing on it".

"This is not a situation that has caught us completely by surprise."

He said the Delta variant of Covid-19 had "changed the game in terms of how not just here in New Zealand, but any airline is regarding travel".

"We're committed to vaccinations. I can tell you that in Air New Zealand over 80 percent of our frontline workers are now vaccinated."

Travel Agents Association president Brent Thomas told First Up travel booking portals had been busy.

"There's been a rush ... people trying to get home through this situation.

"But it does highlight that the government needs to continue with this process of getting vaccinations, hopefully 60-65 percent by September, 80 percent by November, and then they can tell us what the plan [is] so people can travel safely when they are fully vaccinated."

He said it was a "mad scramble" with people trying to book flights, and travel agents were being sought after as travel became more complex.

"Time is of the essence and there's only so many seats and so many flights. Air New Zealand and Qantas have been looking at that ... can they put on more because there's certainly demand there."

It was not an easy operation for an airline, he said.

Thomas said it was possible not everyone wanting to return would make it back on flights this week.

He urged the government to open emergency MIQ spots.

Read the original here:

Air New Zealand 'willing and able' to increase flights from Australia - RNZ

Tokyo Olympics: New Zealand go two from two on opening day of men’s sevens – Stuff.co.nz

Shuji Kajiyama/AP

New Zealand's William Warbrick goes in for the try against Argentina in pool play at the Tokyo Olympics.

Korea crushed. Argentina dispatched. It's so far so good for the All Blacks Sevens in their quest for Olympic gold in Tokyo.

Clairk Laidlaw's men opened the Olympic tournament at Tokyo Stadium on Monday with a degree of style, running away from the outmatched Republic of Korea 50-5 in the early session, and then returning to clinically dismantle a dangerous Argentina side 35-14 in the second stanza.

The Argentina effort, after a somewhat shaky start, was a definite step up from the New Zealanders as they put away a side fresh off a 29-19 upset of the Australians to dash to the top of Pool A, with just the Aussies to come to complete the group phase on Tuesday.

Argentina looked well in the race early on after scoring the opening try via Marcos Moneta (on a tackle miss from Regan Ware), and would still have been feeling good about themselves when they went into the halftime break down 14-7 after Ngarohi McGarvey-Black and Sione Molia worked their magic for the Kiwis.

Dan Mullan/Getty Images

Tone Ng Shiu looks for the gap against Argentina as New Zealand won both matches to open pool play at the Olympic sevens.

Luciano Gonzalez exposed Molia's defence to put the South Americans back on terms early in the second spell, but from there it was all New Zealand. Joe Webber opened the defence up on halfway after a long period of possession, veteran Tim Mikkelson made it 28-14 when he broke through a weak tackle and William Warbrick sealed the deal when he dashed on to Andrew Knewstubb's perfectly weighted grubber.

Laidlaw will no doubt have something to say about a couple of tackle misses, but would otherwise be happy about an opening day that has set the table nicely for a side desperate to atone for their Olympic failure on debut in 2016.

The Kiwis are desperate to add Olympic gold to their world series, World Cup and Commonwealth Games triumphs. They were beaten by eventual gold medallists Fiji in the quarterfinals in Rio after losing twice in pool play.

Earlier they had little trouble dealing with the inexperienced Koreans who paid the price for being on the wrong end of two yellow cards in the second half.

The New Zealanders ran in eight tries in total, including a penalty try, after leading just 14-5 at halftime as the feisty part-timers marked their first half of Olympic sevens action with a couple of bright moments and a surprise five-pointer.

Kenji Demura/Photosport

Tim Mikkelson breaches the Korea defence in New Zealand's impressive Olympic sevens opener in Tokyo.

But normal service was restored after the break as the Koreans were knocked off their stride when Chang Yong Heung and Park Wanyong were both carded for illegal plays at the ball on defence. That allowed the Kiwis to cut loose with six tries over the run home as they made the most of their numerical advantage.

Knewstubb and Mikkelson crossed for the New Zealanders in the first spell, while Mikkelson, Warbrick (twice), Etene Nanai-Seturo and Ngarohi McGarvey-Black completed the scoring action, along with a penalty try.

Argentina had earlier held off a furious finish to stun the Australians 29-19 and take a major stride towards a spot in the quarterfinals.

The Argentines had raced away to a 24-0 halftime lead on the back of tries to Lucio Cinti, Matias Osadczuk, Moneta and Ignacio Mendy in the opening stanza.

Shuji Kajiyama/AP

Members of Team Fiji hold the ball before the start of their men's rugby sevens match against Japan at the 2020 Summer Olympics, Monday, July 26, 2021 in Tokyo, Japan. (AP Photo/Shuji Kajiyama)

But the Aussies gave themselves a sniff when they ran in two tries to super-sub Josh Turner and a blockbusting solo effort to Samu Kerevi to close to 24-19 with time still on the clock.

However they could only bat the restart loose, allowing Argentina's Lautaro Bazan Velez to scoop up the ball and race away for the match-clincher after the final hooter.

Australia kept themselves in the quarterfinal hunt with a 42-5 runaway victory over Korea to wrap up the opening day.

Defending gold medallists Fiji had a mixed day in Pool B, pushed to the limit before grinding out a 24-19 comeback victory over hosts Japan (after trailing 19-12 early in the second spell), and then rolling past Canada 30-14 to go 2-0 for opening day.

Much more impressive were group rivals Great Britain who shut out Canada 24-0, and then returned to crush hosts Japan 34-0 to set up their Tuesday pool decider against the Fijians splendidly.

Rio bronze medallists South Africa kicked off pool C with a 33-14 victory over Ireland, while the US won a thriller, 19-14 over Kenya, in the group's other match of the opening session. The Kenyans looked to have snatched victory at the death when Willy Ambaka raced on to a kick-through with just over a minute remaining but a brilliant defensive play by Mata Leuta dislodged the ball and a Madison Hughes try at the death snatched the win for the Americans.

Read more from the original source:

Tokyo Olympics: New Zealand go two from two on opening day of men's sevens - Stuff.co.nz

New Zealand likely to have ‘record high imports’ of coal in 2021 – officials – RNZ

New Zealand is likely to import more coal this year than it has in any other year, in the midst of a government-declared climate emergency.

Photo: 123RF

Last year the country's main coal users imported more than they had in 14 years, and this year government officials expect even more to come in. Most of this coal is burned to power our homes and businesses.

The government expects an additional 150,000 tonnes of coal will arrive here, a 14 percent increase on last year's total which was already over 1 million tonnes.

Forest and Bird chief executive Kevin Hague said this was unacceptable.

"What we're seeing is the result of years of failure to put in place alternative arrangements. And in consequence, we're faced with this disaster," said Hague, a former Green Party MP.

Coal accounted for more than 10 percent of the country's electricity in the first three months of this year.

Five years ago it was 2 percent; the proportion has steadily increased since. Coal is the most carbon intensive fossil fuel in the world, around twice as much as natural gas.

Two main problems have caused the immediate issue.

Lower than normal rainfall in recent years has hampered hydropower generation, which is by far the country's largest source of renewable electricity. In 2019 hydro contributed 58 percent of the country's total electricity supply, and the first quarter of this year was down to 52.5 percent.

The hydro storage lakes are relatively shallow, and need regular inflows of water to produce electricity at capacity.

The second problem is unexpectedly low natural gas supply, which has dropped from 13 percent of the total supply in 2019 to 11 percent in the first quarter of this year.

About a third of coal imported is burnt at Huntly Power Station for electricity Photo: GENESIS ENERGY

RNZ has reported a greater use of coal over the last few years.

Officials from Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment advised Minister of Energy and Resources Megan Woods in June that this was projected to get worse.

"It is likely 2021 will have record high imports of coal," MBIE officials wrote.

"Coal imported during 2020 was approximately one million tonnes, with approximately 800,000 tonnes used to generate electricity in 2020.

"Coal imports for the first quarter of 2021 were 299,300 tonnes, with 427,000 tonnes consumed for electricity generation."

So more than half of the coal used in 2020 for electricity - already the most in 14 years - was used in the first three months of 2021.

Climate change professor Dave Frame says the rise in coal use means New Zealand will have to do more to cut back future emissions Photo: RNZ / Chris Bramwell

Climate Change Research Institute director professor Dave Frame said the unexpected increase in the use of coal meant the country would have to cut back future emissions even more than projected if New Zealand was to meet its climate targets.

"It just builds up in the system, creating more and more warming every year. So the longer we delay on this problem, the worse it gets. And when you finally get around to stopping emitting carbon dioxide from these fossil sources, we'll have caused a certain amount of warming, and that warming will persist for thousands of years."

The Climate Change Commission recommends this: "the Government must take action to ensure that coal is phased out as soon as possible."

ACT Party MP Simon Court said the gas shortage was the result of the government banning offshore gas exploration in 2018. The government rejects this.

Court said the companies that own the gas fields were not bringing their drill rigs here to refresh the currently producing fields - an expensive task - because they could not look for new gas sources on the same trip.

"There's been a great reluctance to bring any of that gear, because the people that own the gas fields, and who might want to develop new ones, don't see a future for gas - that's because the government's told them there's no future for gas," Court said.

The share of renewably-sourced electricity is high in New Zealand, at about 80 percent. It has been around that level since the mid-1970s. No big dams have been built since the Clyde in 1993.

Wind and geothermal generation have increased from 7 percent to 23 percent of the country's total electricity generation in the last two decades, but the overall share of renewably-sourced electricity has not increased in decades.

Professor Frame said climate change policy had been overly politicised to the detriment of a clear long term plan.

"We have had a pretty good electricity sector from a carbon emissions perspective for a very long time. And it probably has contributed to us taking our eye off the ball a little bit.

"What I was hoping for with the Climate [Change] Commission and recent attention given to climate change policy would be that we'd treat it more like... inflation, and do it away from the political arena, and not make it quite so political. If you could get broad, multi-partisan agreement on how to phase out coal, then you would head off these sorts of problems occurring as they will every few years probably," Frame said.

About a third of the coal we import is used at the Glenbrook Steel Mill south of Auckland, and at Golden Bay Cement in Whangrei.

The rest is burned at the Huntly Power Station for electricity. There is also domestically produced coal which is used in a variety of small and larger scale operations, but most of it is not a suitable grade or quality for Huntly to use, so it imports.

There has been a reduction in domestic coal production over the last 20 years, but production has been stable over the last five years, during a time imports have skyrocketed.

Forest and Bird chief executive Kevin Hague says the need to stop mining and burning coal "is not a subject for negotiation" Photo: RNZ / Rachel Thomas

Forest and Bird's Kevin Hague said regardless of the justification, there just cannot continue to be this level of carbon put into the atmosphere with accessible, clean alternatives available.

"The need to stop mining and burning coal is not a subject for negotiation - you can't negotiate with physics and chemistry. Climate change is happening now because we've left it so late to do anything at all. We have shut off all the gradual change options," Hague said.

The industry says this coal is needed to keep the lights on, and is a last resort. Genesis Energy, which runs the Huntly Power Station, declined to comment for this story but has previously had said it will stop using coal "under normal hydrological conditions" by 2025, with the "intention" to phase coal out completely by 2030.

The company said it was in late stage negotiations for a number of new renewable projects, and a large wind farm, Waipipi in South Taranaki, started operating earlier this year, generating enough clean electricity for 65,000 homes a year.

Hague said companies must also build more renewables, but that takes time.

In the interim, Hague said consumers need to cut back electricity use, to reduce the amount of coal burned, and the government somehow incentivise demand-side reductions in electricity use.

Hague also wanted the government to more strictly regulate the energy companies.

"It is not okay for government to say 'we don't like interfering with markets' and therefore stand back. The moral imperative here... is for the government to act to protect New Zealanders from the effects of climate change, and that trumps everything else."

Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods would not be interviewed for this story, but a spokesperson from her office sent through a statement.

She said the use of this much coal was not acceptable, and was exactly why the government was investigating alternatives, including a large, pumped hydro scheme at Lake Onslow in the South Island.

If the government chose to go with the scheme, it would be finished by 2030 at the earliest. A feasibility study is due back next year and, if chosen, construction would only start in 2024, and take four to five years. It would take another two years to fill the upper reservoir with water before it could operate.

Dr Woods said it was "unfortunate" that fossil fuels played such a role in our electricity security.

However she said the energy sector had committed more than $1 billion to renewable projects just this year, including geothermal and wind sources.

One of each has already opened this year, and the country's biggest solar farm in Taranaki - Kapuni - is also now operating.

Read more here:

New Zealand likely to have 'record high imports' of coal in 2021 - officials - RNZ

‘Aotearoa New Zealand’: What if it went to a vote? – Stuff.co.nz

OPINION: While National demands debate, the Mori Party argues such a debate would only ever suit the majority.

STUART SMITH: There is no doubt that the Mori language has a significant place in New Zealand. I like using Mori place names, and I am an enthusiastic student of te reo. I take regular classes, as is my individual choice, but I might add my ability does not match my enthusiasm.

However, I am well aware that not everyone shares my enthusiasm for learning languages nor sees the role of te reo exactly as I do.

Ricky Wilson/Stuff

Kaikura MP Stuart Smith is concerned that moves towards co-governance are happening without democratic process.

In the past few months, there has been an increasing spotlight placed on significant changes to how our Government enacts the Crown responsibility to uphold the Treaty of Waitangi.

READ MORE:* The contentious He Puapua plan explained* The Detail: What is He Puapua, and why is it making headlines?* Let's not get tied in knots over the little that divides us* What Te Tiriti means for 2021 - and why it's more important than ever

While there are those who vehemently support the notion of co-governance and, of course, those who oppose it, it is my opinion that most New Zealanders fall into a third group. This group is more concerned with the lack of transparency from the Government in implementing co-governance policies without consultation or engagement with the whole of New Zealand.

National Party Leader Judith Collins has been labelled a racist by the Mori Party for bringing this conversation to the table and inviting Kiwis to have their say on these matters.

My view is that asking legitimate questions about the future of our country is not racist.

LAWRENCE SMITH/Stuff

Leader of the National Party, Judith Collins and her deputy, Shane Reti, attend the launch of their new Demand the Debate campaign on Carbine Road in Auckland.

Parliamentarians are voted in by the people and work for the people. If we sit back, dont ask questions, and let the Government advance what are pretty radical changes, without advocating for adequate consultation, then we are not doing our jobs properly.

There is a particular change that, while seemingly nominal, has sparked some controversy; the de facto changing of New Zealands name to Aotearoa New Zealand by the Government and in the media.

Now, I am not seeking to make a judgement call about whether we should change our name or not. That is neither here nor there. I am simply giving voice to the argument that perhaps before the shift began to be put in motion, New Zealanders themselves should have been consulted.

It is presumptuous and disrespectful to make a decision of such cultural importance for the country without engaging all who live there.

David Walker/Stuff

The George Hotel in Park Avenue, Christchurch, displays the five proposed flag options during the 2015 referendum.

Sir John Key had the courage to stand by his convictions and let New Zealanders decide whether we should change our flag. No matter where you stood on the issue, you still had the opportunity to have a say. Sir John lost that debate when New Zealand voted to retain the existing flag, and he accepted this verdict.

Arguably changing the name of the country is even more significant than changing the flag, and it is my belief that the right thing for the Labour Government to do is to advance an open conversation on this.

For some people, for example those who have represented or fought for New Zealand, there is a very strong connect with our existing name. For others, the te reo name Aotearoa holds greater significance.

As I see it, there is no right or wrong perspective. However, it is wrong for a public service and Government to decide a way forward with no regard for how New Zealanders think or feel about it.

Supplied

Mori Party co-leader Rawiri Waititi says Smith will be left behind if he will not embrace a Te Tiriti centric Aotearoa.

RAWIRI WAITITI: I want to mihi to MP Smiths opinion piece for not only giving his view but also allowing the opportunity for reply. Not only does the piece make mention of Te Paati Mori (the Mori Party), but it also makes mention of the changes being made to uphold our obligation to Te Tiriti o Waitangi.

Take a deep breath, perhaps a gaze outside to clear your mind. Then ask yourself this - have we really, ever upheld Te Tiriti o Waitangi in the first place?

You see, the document has been around for 181 years but still Mori remain worse off when it comes to health statistics, dying seven years younger. We are worse off when it comes to educational achievement, homelessness and incarceration, the list goes on.

KATHRYN GEORGE/STUFF

Stuff's NZ Made/N Nu Treni project: When the Treaty of Waitangi was signed, Mori owned more than 66 million acres of land. By 1975, almost 97 per cent had been sold or taken.

The intergenerational effects of these outcomes for Mori are engrained from kaumatua (elders) to mokopuna (grandchildren), except now there is a new horizon on the rise the rise of a Te Tiriti centric Aotearoa, the changing of the tides.

I applaud MP Smiths quest in taking up te reo Mori and using Mori place names, however, demanding a debate that Mori have never really been part of to determine the outcomes best for us, will only ever suit the majority. Demanding a debate will only keep Mori as second-class citizens on their own whenua (land).

Te Tiriti o Waitangi was never about the democratic process in this country, it was always about rowing our waka alongside each other.

This is not about change, this is about the return to the true intention of Te Tiriti o Waitangi as consented by our tpuna (ancestors). Sharing of the whenua for the greater good of both tangata whenua (people of the land) and tangata tiriti (people of the treaty), moving together in a Te Tiriti centric Aotearoa.

Mori TV

Mori youth are the key to ending high Mori prison population numbers believes Justice Sir Joe Williams. (Video first published in May 2021)

Its also not about race. It should, however, be all about our right. Nine times out of 10, Mori have never been involved in the debate and the creation of systems and solutions suited for us.

But lets also not be afraid, because as Kura Kaupapa, Khanga Reo and Whnau Ora have proven when Mori are given the opportunity to create solutions for us, we all succeed.

You can feel the change in the air, you can read the messages and posts from tangata tiriti on social media, you hear it on the street change is occurring.

STACY SQUIRES

With the support of a Te Ora Hou Whanau Ora navigator, Dave and Joanne Conrad and their children have settled into school, work and a home.

This is not about inciting hatred, division and dare I say it, apartheid these words dont belong to us. This is all about living up to the expectations of Te Tiriti as signed 181 years ago in Waitangi.

Perhaps MP Smiths identification of the third group of people has been wrongly mistaken for those who arent afraid of that new sunrise and change in the tide those embracing and committed to a true Tiriti centric Aotearoa.

So my question to MP Smith, and yourself is, as the next sunrise occurs and at the changing of the tide what will you do? Will you go with the sunrise into a new tomorrow and so naturally as tides change, or will you be left behind, in the archaic dark day and age and struggle to stay afloat against the changing tide?

Perhaps youre already living in the aspirations of a Tiriti centric Aotearoa nau mai, haere mai.

See the original post:

'Aotearoa New Zealand': What if it went to a vote? - Stuff.co.nz

If Aldi’s not coming to New Zealand, who will shake up our supermarkets? – Stuff.co.nz

ANALYSIS: Another player may yet storm the New Zealand supermarket pitch currently dominated by Foodstuffs and Countdown but Kiwis are warned, dont get your hopes up it will be Aldi.

The Government has been looking into whether New Zealands supermarkets are giving a fair deal to consumers and suppliers. New Zealand has only two big chain owners: Countdown with its Fresh Choice and Super Value chains, and Foodstuffs which owns the New World, Pak n Save and Four Square brands.

The Commerce Commission is due to publish its draft market study into the $22 billion groceries industry on Thursday, and one possibility is to pave the way for a new supermarket company.

Other big overseas retail brands have come Zara, Taco Bell, H&M, Chemist Warehouse, Sephora. We are still waiting for Ikea, which announced plans for a store in Auckland in 2019.

READ MORE:* Countdown and Foodstuffs about to find out what's in the regulator's trolley* Top five retail brands NZ should hope to see in 2021* NZ supermarkets - the illusion of choice when there are just two big players

But the grocery market has not attracted big names to the same extent, although Costco is making headway with its Auckland superstore and confirmed it was looking to open by the middle of next year.

The brand people would love to see is definitely Aldi, said First Retail Group managing director Chris Wilkinson, who described it as a potential disruptor.

Matt Cardy/Getty Images

Aldi is a massive global player, and can use that to keep prices low.

The German low-price supermarket opened its first Australian store in 2001, and has been registered with the New Zealand companies office since 2000.

Most of its products are home brand, said Wilkinson. It also brings in very odd types of categories, for example toasters or beach toys, keeping shoppers loyal and interested.

Aldis focus is low price, but its a pleasant environment, he said.

They are a massive player globally, so theyre able to leverage that.

But Aldi has been saying no to New Zealand for years, and Wilkinson does not see that changing.

Ours is a tiny market and any newcomer would have to spend big money on infrastructure and stores, if it could even find suitable properties in the first place. Compounding those challenges are Covid-19s uncertainty and supply chain disruption.

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Foodstuffs owns the New World, Pak n Save and Four Square brands.

It would be great, but I dont see it. There are a lot of other things going on at the moment, and its going to take a while for some stabilisation to happen before there will be the confidence for big operators to come in like that, he said.

Aldi is the one that everyone wants, there isnt another player to be honest.

Dr Bodo Lang, senior lecturer at University of Aucklands business school, said Kiwis were paying far too much for groceries and were keen for alternatives.

Any brand thats in Australia that will address the issues in consumers minds with the grocery market, I think that would be the preferred brand, and Aldi seems to be one of those brands that ticks all of the boxes.

Aldi was known to be cost-competitive, Lang said.

I think the evidence is pretty clear that grocery prices at supermarkets in Australia decreased pretty rapidly once Aldi was in the market. I think we would see the same result here.

If not Aldi, then another large international chain that was efficient and willing to disrupt the sector, such as fellow German retailer Lidl, would do, Lang said.

However, a shock decision by Lidls sister brand Kaufman early last year may have hurt the chances of another supermarket firm coming here.

Kaufman was on the verge of opening its first store in Australia, having spent hundreds of millions of dollars on building distribution centres and taking shop sites, before pulling the plug.

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Aldi is the one that everyone wants, there isnt another player to be honest, says Chris Wilkinson.

They made a massive play, and they were tipped to be shaking up the market in a massive way, but they pulled out, Wilkinson said.

The company wanted to focus on its European operations, but there was speculation that changes to Australias retail sector, and flagging consumer confidence partly as a result of recent bushfires, had also forced its hand.

So that would have rocked the confidence of others, Wilkinson said.

However, Costco was almost ready here.

Costcos difference is their focus is on selling bulk products, so instead of buying one can of baked beans you buy a catering sized can of baked beans, or you buy a box, and thats how you achieve your savings, he said.

ROBERT KITCHIN/STUFF

Countdown also operates the Fresh Choice and Super Value chains.

The arrival of Costco in itself would be a major shakeup, even if it was only based in Auckland. Wilkinson said it would attract people from places such as Hamilton or the Bay of Plenty to buy in bulk.

The Warehouse had already had a crack at the fresh groceries market, and was unlikely to have another go, Wilkinson said.

The worlds biggest retailer is US company Walmart, followed by Amazon, Costco, Germanys Schwarz Group (owner of Lidl and Kaufman), and Kroger, all of which offer groceries. Aside from Costco, they are off the local menu, along with Frances Carrefour, or the United Kingdoms Tesco or Waitrose.

But more competition was still possible even without the worlds big players. The rise of shopping from home meant a supermarket did not need to have a physical presence.

For example, Australian grocer Coles, owned by Wesfarmers along with Kmart and Bunnings, could use Kmart and Bunnings stores as pick-up points if it had a New Zealand distribution centre, Wilkinson said.

These are the types of things that are not beyond the bounds of reason, and this is the type of disruption that we probably will see going forward.

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Costco is making headway with its Auckland superstore and hopes to open by mid-2022.

Lang agreed that the only viable alternative at the moment would be for another brand to enter the market as an online retailer.

Were doing that more and more anyway, and you just can't on a national scale launch another grocery retailer and just expect all these large sites in highly competitive locations to suddenly become available, its just not going to happen.

New Zealand had a long way to go in terms of automation compared with companies such as Amazon, which operated nearly fully automated warehouses, Lang said.

I fill in my form on the website and then somebody goes shopping for me - thats unbelievably backwards. It just seems a really obvious task that should be automated.

Its 2021, its not 1921, so Im surprised where we are at with online shopping, to be honest.

But again, dont hold out any hopes for groceries by Amazon.

Its like Ikea. Ikeas business model works on the premise they need one million people within one car hour from the shop - you can easily achieve that in Auckland and you cant achieve that anywhere else in New Zealand, Lang said.

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Its 2021, its not 1921, so Im surprised where we are at with online shopping, to be honest, says Bodo Lang.

I think for very much the same reason we wont see a large-scale Amazon retailer entering the grocery market, because their business model is yeah they do groceries, but they do a whole bunch of other things, and were just too small.

A mix and match of smaller local providers could be part of the answer.

Weve seen more people blending their shopping journeys or relationships with their food suppliers, said Wilkinson.

Sometimes theyre shopping in store, sometimes theyre ordering online and having it delivered, other times its pick up in store, and well see more and more of that with potentially less dedication to one particular brand.

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Australian grocer Coles isnt going to open up a chain of supermarkets in New Zealand, but it could think creatively, says Wilkinson.

Were already seeing that now with the likes of My Food Bag and Hello Fresh, where people will nimbly swap between those brands as well as also potentially doing that staple shop at Pak n Save and those convenience shops at New World and Countdown.

At the premium end there are smaller regional grocers such as Moore Wilsons and Farro, and at the bargain end players such as Reduced to Clear, which stocked products from around the world, he said.

But at the moment they were a drop in the ocean compared with the turnover at the main supermarkets.

Were now starting to see significant changes across New Zealand in terms of the demographics and populations and so everythings up for grabs at the moment as far as we can see.

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If Aldi's not coming to New Zealand, who will shake up our supermarkets? - Stuff.co.nz

What dairy farming is doing to NZ’s water – RNZ

Photo: RNZ / Vinay Ranchhod

The problem

Dairy is New Zealand's biggest export earner, but the industry producing liquid gold for the economy is frequently accused of polluting our fresh water.

Ninety-five percent of New Zealand's dairy is exported, but the country still has to deal with 100 percent of the cows' urine and feces, as well as the excess chemicals from fertiliser for their feed leaching into waterways.

And there's international recognition that New Zealand's farming has impacted the environment.

A 2017 environmental performance review from the OECD says: "New Zealand's growth model is approaching its environmental limits. Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing. Pollution of freshwater is spreading over a wider area. And the country's biodiversity is under threat."

What's the damage?

The most recent environmental reporting estimated, between 2013 and 2017, 95 percent of river length in pastoral land had nutrient or turbidity levels above default guideline values (DVGs). These values are based on what water quality would be like in the absence of human influence.

In pastoral land 75 percent of river length has a D or E rating for swimming due to E. coli counts.

Water quality in towns and cities is worse, however urban rivers only account for one percent of the length of New Zealand's rivers. The biggest proportion of our rivers - around 50 percent - are in pastoral land.

Photo: Supplied / Minstry for the Environment

How did we get here?

Victoria University of Wellington's Dr Mike Joy has long highlighted the degraded state of New Zealand's waterways. Part of the damage the ecologist sees is caused by what he describes as an increasing reliance on farming inputs.

As the number of cows have increased, so has the amount of fertiliser, irrigation and supplementary food. Since 1990, the amount of nitrogen applied to land has increased 629 percent from 62,000 to 452,000 tonnes.

"We've industrialised. Just in 40 years, we've gone from virtually no inputs to very high levels of inputs, and we've more than doubled the stocking rates of dairy. We've way more than doubled the amount of nitrate and pollution that's lost from the systems."

How does dairy cause the damage?

Farming 'inputs' all have different impacts and some are easier to mitigate than others.

More cows means more hooves walking through waterways and stirring up sediment. Fencing, stock crossings and culverts can help mitigate this and DairyNZ says farmers have worked hard to rectify issues. Riparian planting has also been carried out to reduce the amount of nutrients, such as nitrogen, entering water.

Even though dairy cattle numbers are reducing from the 6.7 million high in 2014, there's still more cows than there used to be, and more cows means more nitrogen-rich urine.

In Canterbury, the problem is exacerbated by the type of soil.

"They're very gravelly, sort of loose soils that that water flows through really, really quickly. What's happening is the urine, highly nutrient laden, almost totally nitrogen, urine going through those soils and appearing in the aquifers," Joy says.

Nitrogen also appears in fertiliser used to promote grass growth.

What's the beef with nitrogen?

Cattle urine and fertiliser both contain nitrogen. It makes grass grow, but if there's more nitrogen than the grass can use, it leaches into groundwater. If it makes its way into rivers it promotes the growth of plants in the water and contributes to algal blooms, reduced oxygen levels and reduced light.

Too much nitrogen in water is bad for fish. Three-quarters of New Zealand's fish species are at risk of extinction, which Joy says is "higher than I can find for any country in the world".

It can also be bad for humans.

In drinking water, high levels can cause the rare but fatal blue baby syndrome. New Zealand's drinking water quality rules are set at a level to avoid this, however recent research has shown an association between much lower levels of nitrate in drinking water and bowel cancer.

What is the 1mg/L thing everyone is talking about?

There are two conversations going on at once, both calling for the central government to set nitrogen limits at 1mg/L, or under 1mg/L

One conversation is related to drinking water.

The level of nitrate-nitrogen allowed in drinking water is currently 11.3mg/L, a level set to avoid the risk of blue baby syndrome and in line with advice from the World Health Organisation.

Public health experts have called for the maximum allowable volume of nitrogen in drinking water to be lowered to 1mg/L as a precautionary response to emerging research associating bowel cancer, preterm births, and low birth weights with levels above 1mg/L.

The second conversation is about the amount of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) allowed in rivers and fresh waterways. Other countries, including China and parts of the United States and Europe, have a limit of 1 mg/L.

When the government put together a package of rules around freshwater in 2020 a limit on DIN was discussed but - controversially - not implemented.

Twelve scientists, including Joy, wanted the limit to be set at 1mg/L but five scientists of the 19-strong Science and Technical Advisory Group consulting on the fresh water package weren't convinced a bottom line would lead to an improvement in ecosystem health.

The government did strengthen the nitrate toxicity measure from 80 percent to 95 percent. This means the quality of water can only kill 5 percent of macroinvertebrates - creatures without backbones, which can be seen without a microscope - living in it.

It was a measure suggested by DairyNZ, who pushed for 90 percent, and promoted by the Ministry for Primary Industries instead of a DIN, but not everyone was happy with this, especially environmental groups.

When the government announced the new rules, it committed to a review of the DIN bottom line in September this year.

That review is now underway. The Ministry for the Environment told RNZ it's currently preparing advice for the government on whether the science behind a bottom line of 1mg/L DIN has become clearer and establishing the environmental benefit and economic impact of the bottom line.

What does the industry say about dissolved inorganic nitrogen bottom line?

DairyNZ is still against a DIN. "We oppose the DIN limit due to a lack of science demonstrating it will deliver the ecosystem health outcomes targeted. Instead, we advocated for strengthening of the nitrate toxicity standards," a spokesperson says.

Dropping to 1mg/L would have "massive impacts, significantly constraining production in many agricultural catchments over a rule which would not deliver better ecosystem health."

Fonterra says it supports a bottom-line but there are caveats: "We do not support using nitrogen and phosphorous limits alone as a measure of a waterway's health - measures should represent the full, biological ecosystem such as presence of macroinvertebrates and fish, and be tailored to each region."

Fonterra hasn't analysed what the economic impact of a DIN bottom line of 1mg/L would be.

Federated Farmers says its view is that "rather than imposing further standards and limits at this time, such as a 1mg/L rule, it is better to give the agricultural sector time to implement the plethora of new rules and regulations first."

In areas of the country which are intensively farmed, a spokesperson for Federated Farmers says a bottom line of 1mg/L would "have a substantial and perhaps devastating impact on farming and entire New Zealand economy."

What do the people who want a lower DIN say?

Recently there have been calls for the limit to be set to under one.

Joy co-authored a paper showing the 1mg/L limit is generous. "It should have been even less than that." The paper suggests 0.6mg/L.

Environmental groups are also calling for the limit to be set at "under one". In a joint statement Greenpeace, Choose Clean Water, Forest & Bird and the Environmental Defense Society said the science is clear and the government should slash the limit.

Forest & Bird's Freshwater Advocate Annabeth Cohen said: "We urge the Government to accept the scientific consensus that ecosystem health isn't possible if nitrate pollution in waterways exceeds 1 mg/L.

"This is a conservative standard of freshwater quality, despite what the agri-industry would have New Zealand believe. We need to stay under one, just to ensure the river can support life."

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What dairy farming is doing to NZ's water - RNZ